Purpose of the lecture: To study the nature, types of entrepreneurial risk, the reasons for its facilitation and ways to minimize
Lecture plan:
3.1 The concept and functions of risk
3.2 Classification of business risks
3.3 Risk losses and their causes in business
3.4 Ways to reduce and insure risk in business
The concept and functions of risk
People have always met with risk in various fields of activity. However, the fundamental nature of the works that reveal the essence and content of the economic categories "economic risk", "entrepreneurial risk" is not yet.
In the most general form, in the "Dictionary of the Russian Language" by V. Dahl, risk is defined, on the one hand, as a possible danger of something; on the other hand, as an action for good luck, requiring courage, determination, enterprise in the hope of a happy outcome.
In the “Modern Economic Dictionary” by B. A. Raizberg and others, it is noted that risk is the danger of unforeseen losses in expected profit, income or property, money due to an accidental change in the conditions of economic activity, adverse circumstances.
In modern economic dictionaries, risk is given quite a lot of attention. Thus, in the "Explanatory Dictionary of Economics and Finance" by I. Bernard and J.C. Colli, the following definition of risk is given: "An element of uncertainty that may affect the activities of an economic entity or the behavior of any economic operation."
This dictionary says that entrepreneurial activity contains a risk that the entrepreneur must take on. It determines the nature and extent of the risk.
Entrepreneurial activity is an innovative risky activity. Applying new technologies, new equipment, new methods of organizing labor, production, innovative marketing, management, etc., an entrepreneur, of course, risks incurring losses, losing part or all of his resources. But he does not count on losses, but, above all, on obtaining entrepreneurial income. And, as practice shows, in many cases, he gets it.
That is why firms of an innovative, entrepreneurial type have higher profitability and a higher level of competitiveness compared to those that carry out the process of reproduction using traditional technologies and techniques, methods of organizing and managing production.
Thus, a sample survey of 50 financial firms conducted in the United States showed that the average return on "risk capital" is 3 times higher than ordinary equity investments. 70% of these firms had a profitability of over 20%, the rest - over 30%.
In the economic literature, the terms both "economic risk" and "entrepreneurial risk" are used. And most often these concepts are understood as identical. Indeed, these concepts are very close, especially if we consider the economic risk in entrepreneurial activity. At the same time, they cannot be considered identical.
Economic risk is a broader concept than entrepreneurial risk, although the latter is the main component of economic risk.
Risk is a possible danger.
In economic theory, risk is commonly understood as the probability (threat) of an enterprise losing part of its income as a result of certain production and financial activities.
Thus, entrepreneurial risk is understood as the danger of a potentially possible, probable loss of resources arising from any type of activity related to the production of products, goods, services, their sale, commodity-money and financial transactions, commerce.
In the types of activity under consideration, one has to deal with the use and circulation of material, labor, financial, information (intellectual) resources, so the risk is associated with the threat of loss of these resources, in full or in part.
When defining the concept of "risk", such commonly used words as "losses", "losses", "damage" are used.
Applying these words to the economy, it is necessary to understand what is meant by them. Losses are what we had and what was left of us. But after all, in the economy there are words “expenses”, “costs”, “costs”, which also mean what was and what was gone.
For example, a tailor sews a suit and spends fabric on it. These costs are not losses, they are foreseen in advance. But if the same tailor accidentally cut the fabric, cut the suit incorrectly, it turns out that he took 3.5 meters in excess of the three meters of fabric required for tailoring the suit. So, 3 meters is an expense, and 0.5 meters is a loss.
Another example, an entrepreneur has decided to print books and sell them at a price of 500 tenge per piece. But there were unfavorable conditions on the sales market, the demand for the book turned out to be lower than expected and they had to be sold at a price of 400 tenge per piece. As a result, the entrepreneur loses 100 tenge of income on each book.
Entrepreneurial risk is characterized as the danger of unforeseen, uncalculated expenditure of resources or shortfall in income in comparison with the option designed for the rational use of resources. In other words, the risk is the threat that the entrepreneur incurs losses in the form of additional expenses in excess of those provided for by the forecast, project, plan, program of his actions, or will receive income below those he expected.
So, when establishing entrepreneurial risk, it is necessary to distinguish between the concepts of "expense" and "losses", "losses". Any entrepreneurial activity is inevitably associated with costs, while losses occur due to unfavorable circumstances, miscalculations, and represent additional costs in excess of those planned. Any expenses that do not bring an effect, an expedient result, should also be attributed to losses.
Further consideration of the essence of entrepreneurial risk is connected with the clarification of the functions that risk performs in entrepreneurial activity.
In the economic literature, the following risk functions are distinguished:
· innovative;
Regulatory
protective;
analytical.
Entrepreneurial risk performs an innovative function by stimulating the search for non-traditional solutions to the problems facing the entrepreneur. Most foreign firms, companies achieve success, become competitive on the basis of innovative economic activity associated with risk. Risky decisions, a risky type of management lead to more efficient production, from which entrepreneurs, consumers, and society as a whole benefit.
The regulatory function has a contradictory character and appears in two forms: constructive and destructive. Entrepreneurial risk is generally focused on producing meaningful results in non-traditional ways. Thus, it allows to overcome conservatism, dogmatism, inertia, psychological barriers that impede promising innovations. This is a constructive form of the regulatory function of entrepreneurial risk.
The constructive form of the regulatory function of risk lies in the fact that the ability to take risks is one of the ways of successful entrepreneurial activity.
The protective function of risk is manifested in the fact that if risk is a natural state for an entrepreneur, then a tolerant attitude towards failures should also be normal. Initiative, enterprising business executives need social protection, legal, political and economic guarantees that exclude punishment in case of failure and stimulate justified risk.
In order to take risks, an entrepreneur must be sure that a possible mistake cannot compromise either his business or his image.
The analytical function of entrepreneurial risk is related to the fact that the presence of risk implies the need to choose one of the possible solutions, and therefore the entrepreneur, in the decision-making process, analyzes all possible alternatives, choosing the most profitable and least risky.
Considering the functions of entrepreneurial risk, it should be emphasized once again that, despite the significant loss potential that risk carries, it is also a source of possible profit. Therefore, the main task of the entrepreneur is not to avoid risk in general, but to choose decisions related to risk on the basis of objective criteria, namely: to what extent can the entrepreneur act when taking risks.
In addition, entrepreneurial risk also performs a social function. By helping to increase the efficiency and sustainability of reproduction, it thereby creates a real material base for meeting social needs, for improving the well-being of the population. With the stable operation of enterprises, firms and their associations, employment of the population will stabilize.
Economic risk develops entrepreneurial abilities not only among entrepreneurs themselves, but also among managers, specialists, and all employees.
Federal State Educational Budgetary Institution of Higher Professional Education
"FINANCIAL UNIVERSITY
UNDER THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION"
(Financial University)
Department of "Microeconomics"
COURSE WORK
on the topic:
"ENTREPRENEURIAL RISK: ITS ESSENCE, TYPES AND FEATURES IN RUSSIA"
Completed:
Zaretsky Yuri KEF 1-2
Moscow 2013
Plan
Introduction
1.4 Risk assessment models
3.2 Ways to reduce the degree of entrepreneurial risks
Conclusion
Bibliography
Applications
Introduction
Risk to one degree or another constantly accompanies any human activity. It is a constant companion of human economic activity, sometimes exerting a decisive influence on its final result.
Even in the most plausible economic situation, for each enterprise there is always the possibility of the onset of crisis economic phenomena. This probability is associated with risk. Risk is inherent in any sphere of human economic activity, which is due to the abundance of causes and conditions that affect a certain positive outcome as a result of specific decisions made by people.
The greatest degree of risk is achieved through the disorganization of the economy for a number of reasons. So, for example, it is enough to recall the World Financial Crisis of 2008 (the "great recession"), which manifested itself in September-October 2008 in the form of a very sharp deterioration in the main economic indicators in many developed countries, and which resulted in a global recession. The precondition for the financial crisis of 2008 was the US mortgage crisis, the first signs of which appeared in 2006 in the form of a rapid drop in the number of home sales, which in early 2007 escalated into a high-risk mortgage crisis. In the near future, reliable borrowers also felt problems with lending. In the summer of 2007, the mortgage crisis gradually began to transform into a financial crisis. Bankruptcies of large banks began, the rescue of banks began on the part of national governments. Quotations in the stock markets fell sharply during 2008 and early 2009. For companies, the share of the probability of receiving capital during the placement of securities has significantly decreased. In 2008, the crisis acquired a global character and gradually began to manifest itself in a widespread decline in production volumes, a decrease in demand and prices for raw materials, and an increase in unemployment.
Thus, we can say that in the context of the global financial crisis, the rapid growth of activity and the scale of the spontaneous economic market, the involvement of an increasing number of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs becomes impossible, since the crisis literally multiplies the degree of risk, which disorganizes the economy. Addressing issues related to "uncertainty" and risk in entrepreneurial activity play an extremely important role. Therefore, the relevance of the topic we have chosen is indeed extremely high and, of course, we must thoroughly study all aspects of entrepreneurial risk.
Recall that entrepreneurial activity is an activity aimed at generating income. Of course, along with entrepreneurial activity, there is, as we have already said, an entrepreneurial risk that forces the owner of the company to make one or another decision related to resolving this difficult task, namely, reducing the level of risk.
Traditionally, entrepreneurial risk is understood as the risk that appears in all types of entrepreneurial activity associated with the production of products, goods and services, and directly with their implementation; financial and commodity-money transactions; commerce, as well as with the implementation of scientific and technical projects.
Commercial risk has an objective base, due to the uncertainty of the external environment in relation to entrepreneurial activity (activity). The external environment, therefore, includes the objective economic, social and political conditions in which the entrepreneur operates and to the changes to which he must adapt.
entrepreneurial risk assessment russia
It is also important to note the fact that the experience of development of all countries indicates that the neglect or underestimation of economic risk in the development of strategies and tactics of economic policy, the adoption of specific decisions inevitably hinders the development of society, scientific and technological progress, dooms the entire economic system to stagnation ...
The purpose of the course work is to substantiate the essence of entrepreneurial risk, its types and features.
Thus, we define the goals of our work:
Consider entrepreneurial risk as an economic category.
Consider the functions and types of entrepreneurial risks, and the reasons that affect the degree of commercial risk.
Let us study the characteristic features of entrepreneurial risks in developed countries.
Let's define the main business risks in the Russian Federation and methods to reduce them.
The object of the research is the concept and practice of analysis and management of entrepreneurial risks in a market economy. Having examined the content, types and methods of assessing commercial risks, as well as considering the reasons for managing them and ensuring their economic security in Russian economic reality, we will be able to give an accurate assessment of business risk in Russia.
As a subject of research, we designate entrepreneurial risk in the United States, France and directly in Russia itself.
Chapter 1. Theoretical Foundations of Entrepreneurial Risk
1.1 Entrepreneurial risk as an economic category
In the classical theory of entrepreneurial risk (J. Mill, N.W. Senior), it is identified with the mathematical expectation of losses that have every chance of happening as a result of the chosen decision. The risk here is defined as the damage that is caused by the implementation of the decision. This interpretation of the essence of risk was not accepted by all economists, which led to the development of a different understanding of the content of risk. In the 30s. In the 20th century, economists A. Marshall and A. Pigou designed the bases of the neoclassical theory of commercial risk, which are displayed in the following:
the merchant works in conditions of almost complete uncertainty;
entrepreneurial profit is a random variable.
Entrepreneurs are guided in their activities by the following criteria:
expected profit,
the magnitude of its probable fluctuations.
According to neoclassical theory, with a similar amount of possible profit, the entrepreneur chooses the option associated with the lowest level of risk. Thus, representatives of the neoclassical theory of entrepreneurial risk substantiated the position of "opponents of risk".
J.M. Keynes, on the contrary, turned his attention to the propensity of businessmen to take great risks in order to achieve greater profits expected in the future. In addition, he substantiates the need to introduce "risk costs" to cover the alleged deviation of the actual revenue from the possible (expected), and also identifies 3 main types of risk that it is advisable to take into account economic life.
) risks, a certain proportion of the probability of which is calculable, and which can be insured (such risks become an item of production costs deducted from profit);
) risks, a certain degree of probability of which is incalculable, which explain the existence of a specific income of entrepreneurs.
In our domestic economic science, the problem of risk, unfortunately, was given much less attention. In the 20s. of the last century, a number of legislative normative acts were adopted, taking into account the presence of industrial and economic risk in Russia. But with the approval of the administrative-command system, real entrepreneurship was completely destroyed, and already in the mid-30s. the category "risk" was given a label - bourgeois, capitalist. This is explained by the fact that under the conditions of the command-administrative system of the economy, the economic situation was determined "from above" by order in the form of a set of norms and certain rules developed by economists on the basis of the postulates of the Marxist-Leninist theory, for which risk could not be the subject of economic analysis.
It should be said that the problems of risk in the socialist economy of the then Russia were developed by domestic authors S.N. Koshelenko A.P. Algin, D.V. Tulin, I.M. Syroezhin, D.N. Nazarov. At the same time, in most works, the emphasis was placed on the fact that the category of risk is groundlessly ignored in the broad economic literature, or has an extremely little meaningful interpretation. Most of the time was devoted to general methodological problems, as well as practical solutions related to the conclusion of credit, foreign trade and other transactions, the introduction of new technologies. Some experts focused on the differences in the assessment of economic risk in the countries of the capitalist and socialist camps, associated with different motivations for the activities of economic entities - the implementation of the plan and the receipt / max of economic profit. In a planned economy, one had to deal with the risk of an unfulfilled state budget. plan, violations of obligations on a contractual basis, short deliveries of products, and the like, most often due to non-compliance with the norms and rules of economic activity. And in a market economy, the primary elements of risk are the uncertainty of market conditions, demand, prices and behavior of the buyer (consumer), which determine the final results of the activities of economic entities.
The implementation of a number of economic reforms in the Russian Federation aroused interest in the problems associated with the consideration of risk in economic activity. The very concept of risk in the process of formation of market relations not only received its further development, but actually became also in demand. It is worth noting that the skills and knowledge of entrepreneurial activity in relation to the forms of economic risk characteristic of a directive-controlled economy should also be taken into account when determining domestic modern theoretical positions of commercial risk.
Today there is no common understanding of the essence of "risk". This can be explained by the fact that there is a multidimensionality of this phenomenon. It also takes place to be almost completely ignored by our economic legislation in terms of economic practice and management activities. In addition, risk is an extremely complex phenomenon that has many heterogeneous, and sometimes opposite, existing foundations. This is explained by the possibility of existence of several definitions of the concepts of the word "risk" from different points of view.
Consider a number of definitions of "risk", which are given to us by domestic and foreign authors in our time:
Risk is a potential, quantifiable possibility of loss. The concept of risk characterizes the uncertainty associated with the likelihood of adverse situations during the implementation of the project and, as a fact, the consequences.
Risk - the likelihood of losses, losses, shortfalls in planned income, profit.
Risk is the uncertainty of our future financial results.
Risk is a cost expression of a probabilistic event leading to losses.
Risk - the probability of loss of values as a result of entrepreneurial activity, if the situation and conditions for conducting activities change in a direction different from that provided for by plans and calculations.
It should be noted that the concept of "risk" has a rather long history, however, various aspects of risk began to be studied more intensively in the late 19th - early 20th centuries.
Thus, we have considered commercial risk from the standpoint of a number of economic schools. Now we should generalize the knowledge gained about entrepreneurial risk as an economic category, link the concepts together, based on modern ideas about it.
Of course, all companies try to minimize their risk and, in turn, maximize their profits. But at the same time, the lower the degree of risk, the lower the opportunity to get high entrepreneurial profits. The relationship between these factors is directly proportional. In principle, it is impossible to get away from risk, since, by definition, its zero level does not exist. Therefore, the task of the manager of a company (firm, organization), according to the concept of risks, is not to reduce the risk in its pure form, but to find a reasonable ratio between the level of risk of the decision made and the profitability of its result.
The crisis of the economy in all countries is becoming one of the factors of increasing entrepreneurial risk, which leads to an increase in the number of non-marginal enterprises. The significant growth of non-profit companies allows us to conclude that it is impossible to do without taking into account the risk factor in production and economic activities, because it is difficult to obtain results of an entrepreneur's commercial activity that are adequate to the real conditions. Therefore, it is not possible to form an effective mechanism for the functioning of the company in cooperation with other economic entities of the economy on the basis of the concept without risky management.
Our earlier analysis of the numerous meanings of "risk" allows us to determine the primary points that are natural for a risky situation. Among them we should include:
The spontaneous nature of the event, which affects which of the possible outcomes is realized in practice;
Availability of other solutions;
Probability of expected end results.
1.2 Functions and types of business risks
The essence of entrepreneurial risk is closely related to the definition of the functions performed by the risk. It is customary to single out the following functions: regulation, stimulation, protection and choice. Consider the content of these functions.
The stimulating function of risk is aimed at finding non-standard solutions to problems that arise before the manager. Most enterprises and firms achieve success, increase their competitiveness on the basis of risky activities. It should be noted that this type of management leads to more efficient production, from which both consumers and society as a whole benefit.
The regulatory function of risk directs the manager to obtain, first of all, significant results by overcoming inertia, conservatism, and psychological barriers that prevent the adoption and implementation of promising decisions. This function captures the ability to take risks, as one of the possible ways of successful entrepreneurial activity.
The protective function of risk shows itself in the fact that if risk is a normal state for a company, then a tolerant attitude towards failures should also be natural. Entrepreneurial and enterprising entrepreneurs need social protection in the form of political, legal and economic guarantees.
The function of choosing an entrepreneurial risk is related to the fact that the presence of risk necessitates the choice of one of the possible solutions. In this regard, the manager in the decision-making process analyzes various options, choosing the most cost-effective and least risky. Depending on the specific content of the choice situation, it has a different degree of complexity and is resolved in different ways.
The effectiveness of measuring and regulating the degree of risk is largely determined by the knowledge and understanding of its classification.
The classification of risks should be understood as the distribution of risk into certain groups for specific ones. signs to achieve the goals (Fig. 1). Risk classification allows. determine the place of each risk in their overall system. It creates opportunities for the effective use of appropriate methods and methods of risk management in business activities. Each risk has its own system of ways and methods of business risk management.
Difficulty of classification. entrepreneurial risks lies in their diversity. There are a number of basic types of risk that all firms, organizations, etc., without exception, are exposed to. But along with the general ones, there are also characteristic ones. types of risks specific to certain types of entrepreneurial activity (activities): banking risks differ from risks in insurance activities, and the latter, in turn, from risks in industrial business.
In addition, economic and political development of modern production. generates new types of risk, which are not so simple. identify and quantify them. The movement of the national economy of various countries is accompanied by the creation of complex financial. and production relationships. There is a "domino effect", which in the event of the collapse of one firm entails a series of bankruptcies of others associated with this commercial organization - bankrupt. Increasing computerization and automation of the activities of enterprises leads to the possibility of losses as a result of a computer system failure.
Risks are usually divided according to a number of criteria. Consider the criteria for risk grouping.
Yes, depending. From the probable result (or risk event), risks can be divided into 2 large groups: pure and speculative.
Rice. 1 - Risk classification
Net risks can be defined as the probability of obtaining a non-positive (negative or zero) result. We will include among them: political, transport, natural, part of commercial risks (production, property, trade), environmental and others.
Natural risks are undoubtedly associated with the manifestation of forces of a natural nature (earthquakes, floods, storms, fires, epidemics).
Environmental risks - risks associated with the processes of environmental pollution.
Political risks are determined by the political stability in the country and the direct activity of the state. It is typical for them to manifest themselves when the conditions of the production and trade process are violated for reasons beyond the control of the economic entity.
Transport risks - risks associated with the transportation of goods (sea, road, river, air, rail,).
Entrepreneurial risks represent a threat of losses in the process of financial and economic activity and represent the uncertainty of the results of this entrepreneurial activity. On a structural basis, entrepreneurial risks can be divided into production, property, financial and trade risks.
According to the sphere of manifestation, entrepreneurial risks should be divided into internal and external risks. So the source of external risks is the external environment of the enterprise. A merchant cannot influence these risks, he is only able to a certain extent to foresee and take them into account in his entrepreneurial activity. So we can refer to external risks the risk from unforeseen changes in the legislation regulating commercial activity in the country; instability of the political regime in the country; as a result of strikes, nationalization, embargoes, etc. The source of internal risks is the organization itself. These risks manifest themselves in the case of illiterate management, erroneous marketing policy, which is reflected in the adoption of irrelevant business decisions, as well as as a result of internal abuse. Chief among the risks of internal content are personnel risks associated with the professional level and characteristics of employees of a commercial company; then technological, technical, production risks, etc.
The types of entrepreneurial activity distinguish the following risks: financial, insurance, production, legal, commercial, investment and innovation.
In our time, in the conditions of doing business, two types of commercial risk are distinguished according to the level of entrepreneurial decision-making: risk at the level of individual enterprises or local (microeconomic) and global (macroeconomic) risk. Until the mid-1980s, in Russia, the main share of the risk fell on the global level - the level of the state itself. With the advent of organizations of various forms of ownership, the situation has changed dramatically, now it is firms that bear the dominant part of the risk. Independently identifying their innovative and investment activities, independently concluding contracts with suppliers and consumers, they fully assume the commercial risk associated with their decisions.
We can also divide all business risks into two large groups according to the possibility of their insurance: those that cannot be insured and those that are insured. A merchant can, in particular, shift the risk to other economic entities, partially protect himself by incurring certain expenses in the form of insurance premiums. For example, an entrepreneur can insure the risk of loss (or destruction) of property, the risk of accidents, fire, etc.
Insured risk - a possible event or set of events, at the time of which insurance is carried out. The insurance risks, as we have already said, include possible losses as a result of natural disasters, car accidents, damage to products in a warehouse or during transportation, non-fulfillment of obligations by subcontractors or suppliers, employee errors, accidents with employees, etc.
If the resulting damage as a result of the insured risk is covered by the payments of insurance companies, then, consequently, the losses resulting from the risk are compensated from the personal funds of the enterprise.
The main internal sources of risk coverage are the organization's own capital, as well as reserve funds intended for this purpose. In addition to internal sources, there are also external sources to cover probable losses, for example, the main bank is responsible for subsidiary banks.
According to the causes of losses, scientists distinguish between dynamic and static risks. Static risks are the possible damage resulting from negative actions on the assets of the organization of natural disasters (fire, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, etc.); the adoption of unfavorable legislation (loss of seizure of property or the inability to recover compensation from the culprit due to imperfect legislation); criminal actions; incapacity of key employees (the top staff of the company), which is associated with the difficulty of recruiting professional personnel, as well as losses that were caused by the transfer of ownership. The peculiarity of static risks is nothing more than the fact that they always carry losses for business.
Unlike static risk, dynamic risk implies either profit for firms or losses. Therefore, we can call them "speculative". Dynamic risks, due to their characteristics, are very difficult for a firm to manage.
The above classification of commercial risks is somewhat conditional, since it is very difficult to draw a clear line between certain types of risks. In addition, many risks are closely interrelated. Changes in the level of one of them immediately cause changes in the magnitude of the other risk. But all risks affect the outcome of the production and economic activities of the company and therefore they must be taken into account in order to maintain the normal efficiency of the enterprise.
1.3 Factors affecting the level of entrepreneurial risk
Each enterprise (manufacturing, transport and others) is a complex production and economic system, which is influenced by many different factors. Their different in volume and time impact (together or separately, or in various combinations) causes uncertainty, which, in turn, is a source of risk. Factors can be, as laid down in the organization of activities or the strategy of the enterprise, how to act as a result of the actions of its leader.
Factors that cause entrepreneurial risks can be divided into 2 groups:
subjective and objective;
external and internal.
The group "Objective factors" includes such circumstances of primary importance as "Quality of active resources" and "Quality of the situation". At the same time, the category "Quality of active resources" should include everything that an entrepreneur needs to ensure his planned business, in particular, the quality of attracted own and borrowed financial, economic and material resources. Everything else that the entrepreneur is unable to manage, that is beyond his control, but that significantly affects the financial and economic results of entrepreneurial activity, belongs to the category "Quality of the situation". The quality of the situation is determined by the circumstances dictated by the economic, political and social situation in the country or countries where the entrepreneur does business, as well as the quality of the staff working with him, the conscientiousness of partners, etc.
The second group, tentatively named "Subjective factors", are the characteristics of the entrepreneur's personality.
The conditions for doing business in Russia are significantly different from those in countries with an already established market economy. Therefore, along with the considered factors affecting the level of commercial risk in these countries, there are a number of factors specific to our country in the domestic economy.
An analysis of the current state of the Russian economy allows us to identify the following factors that cause the emergence of entrepreneurial risk:
irresponsibility and optionality of economic entities in the country;
vagueness and continuous change in normative and legislative acts regulating the activities of enterprises, firms and organizations;
unstable inflation rates;
political instability;
the absence of a real economic right, which prevents the reduction of the overall level of risk through contractual relations;
the lack of personal responsibility of a significant part of company managers for the results of their activities, which increases the level of risk of any of their decisions;
intervention of politicians in the economy;
increase in the number of employees of the administrative apparatus;
unstable tax laws;
low level of basic education of entrepreneurs.
We can divide all influencing factors in relation to an economic entity into two groups - external and internal. Let's consider each group of factors.
External factors should be understood as those conditions that an entrepreneur or manager, as a rule, cannot change, but must take into account, since they affect the final results.
The group of internal factors affecting the level of risk includes a large number of diverse and diverse factors, usually divided into subgroups: enterprise strategy, principles and methods of managing it, resources and the level of their use, marketing activities, methods used by the organization to protect business secrets, product quality (works, services), etc. Each of these subgroups includes its own specific factors that contribute to the emergence of risks.
1.4 Risk assessment models
In the most general form, the entrepreneurial risk assessment model can be expressed by the following mathematical model, which is the ratio:
where R is an assessment of the consequences of a risk event;
P is the probability of a risk event occurring;
I - potential consequences of the risk factor.
Work on the analysis of entrepreneurial risk and the construction of an adequate model for its assessment is very time consuming.
This is explained, on the one hand, by the instability of the causes of risk factors, and, on the other hand, by the complexity of formalizing the results of activities. Therefore, when substantiating and developing mathematical models for assessing entrepreneurial risk, a thorough analysis of the nature of the initial information about the causes and factors of entrepreneurial risk, as well as the purpose of the study, is required.
Depending on the nature of the proposed information that is available at the moment of setting the problem, and the chosen method for describing uncertainty, the following types of mathematical models for assessing the consequences of risk are most common: deterministic; stochastic; linguistic and gaming.
Rice. 2 - Mathematical models of risk assessment
The deterministic model is understood as the model in which the nature of the causes and risk factors is known and for each action it is determined that it will certainly lead us to some specific outcome. In such cases, we say that classical mathematical methods of analysis and mathematical logic, programming, etc. serve for the mathematical description of financial risk.
Stochastic models imply the randomness of causes and risk factors, therefore, we say that the risk is described by a probability distribution on a given set. A prerequisite for the reasonable use of these models is the availability of statistically significant information about past implementations of the unknown variable.
In linguistic models, uncertainty is described by a verbally defined membership function. To build the membership function, expert judgments are used about the level of predisposition of one or another possible event to be realized.
In the case of building a game (non-stochastic) model, only a set of independent values of the consequences of a risk event is specified, which can be realized. Statistical and mathematical games, utility theory, etc. are used as a description.
Thus, in the transition from deterministic models through stochastic to linguistic and game ones, the information content of the person making the decision about risk factors decreases, and, as a result, a sharp drop in the level of risk assessment accuracy, which negatively affects the result of income forecasting.
Often there are situations when the uncertainty cannot be described by us, and it is not possible to calculate the risk. In this case, risky decisions should be made on the basis of heuristics - a set of methodological rules for theoretical research, logical techniques and the search for truth. Risk management has its own system of related rules and techniques for making decisions under conditions of partial or even complete uncertainty.
A risk indicator can serve as a quantitative expression of the outcome of a risky situation. We must say that there are different types of risk assessment indicators, which is due to the information situation in which a particular decision is made. The set of risk assessment indicators is shown in Fig.3.
Consider a group of risk assessment indicators formed on the basis of the level of uncertainty regarding the probability of a risk event.
Rice. 3 - Classification of risk assessment indicators
In conditions of certainty, the group of risk assessment indicators includes financial indicators that reflect the availability, placement and use of financial resources and, thus, make it possible to assess the risk of consequences of the results of organizations' activities.
We use the company's financial statements as initial information in risk assessment. Database of models - the position that the risk can be measured by the deviation of the real result of the calculations from the ideal, that is, the risk-free option. The peculiarity of this is that the object of our assessment are risks that are characterized by the result of activity, that is, we are talking about complex risks that have formed under the influence of other financial risks. As criteria parameters for comparing indicators, as a rule, calculated values or generally accepted values based on data from past periods of this company can be used.
Due to the peculiarities of the initial information and the structure of indicators, risk assessment can exist and be carried out on the basis of deterministic models.
The disadvantages of these models include: insufficient flexibility of criterial parameters; use of old information; insufficient dynamism; insufficient information content of financial statements;
Under conditions of some uncertainty, risk should be considered as a probabilistic category. Probabilistic indicators of risk assessment are calculated based on the classical principles of statistical probability using stochastic models. The form of expression is interval and point risk estimates. Initial information about a risk situation exists in the form of the frequency of occurrence of risk events.
We also provided comparative characteristics of risk assessment indicators (see Appendix 1).
Methods of expert risk assessment - a set of mathematical and logical procedures that are aimed at obtaining information from expert experts, its analysis and generalization in order to select the desired (rational) solution.
These methods involve the implementation of a number of procedures or steps:
formation of the goal and objectives of expert evaluation;
choice of method for collecting and processing expert information;
selection and formation of an expert group;
questioning or questioning of experts;
processing and analysis of the obtained results.
Methods of expert assessments we can classify as follows:
Methods of joint work of a group of experts implies the formation of a common opinion in the course of a collective discussion of a risky situation. Sometimes these methods can be defined as methods of obtaining a collective opinion directly. These include brainstorming, business games, meetings and scenarios.
The methods of obtaining individual opinions of the members of the expert group are based on the premature collection of information from experts interviewed independently of each other, with subsequent processing of the collected information. These methods include methods of interview, questionnaire survey.
In reality, expert judgment is not used as a basis for decision-making, but only complements the quantitative risk assessment. This is due to many factors, including the subjectivity of these estimates. That is, the mathematical component of these methods is the processing and evaluation of the collected information/results.
Thus, we can conclude that mathematical methods are based on statistical information, and they give us an objective quantitative risk assessment. At the same time, the only drawback of these methods/methods is the use of past information to predict the future situation.
Modeling of the financial situation is based on mathematical models. One of the areas of modeling in the field of finance is the modeling of risk situations in order to further assess the financial risk when making management decisions by the company. Consider the main models of financial risk management on the example of the stock market.
Despite the fact that the models of P. Samuelson and L. Bachelier assess price changes in the stock markets, they are not all risk management models, but rather form the basis for their development.
G. Markowitz's paradigm is based on a number of abstractions that simplify reality:
) when making an investment decision, the investor should be guided primarily by only two criteria - the level of risk and return on investment;
) the investor behaves rationally: out of 2 investment objects with the same profitability, he will give preference to the one with a lower risk level;
) investors seek to maximize profitability;
) a characteristic feature for investors will be the homogeneity of expectations, that is, their assumptions about the risk indicator and future return are the same.
The main merit of G. Markowitz is his proposed probabilistic formalization of the terms "profitability" and "risk". In G. Markowitz's model, the probability distribution is used directly to calculate the ratio between the risk of investments and their expected return. The return of the securities portfolio assumed by him is found as the average value of the probability distribution, and the risk is found as the standard deviation of the probable values of the return from the expected one.
The results of the study by G. Markowitz allowed us to translate the problem of choosing the optimal investment strategy into an exact mathematical language.
The model is based on the same assumptions as the G. Markowitz model, as well as the following:
for all investors, the investment period is the same;
information is freely and immediately available to every investor;
investors have homogeneous expectations, that is, they equally evaluate future returns, risk and covariances of returns of securities;
the risk-free interest rate is the same for every investor.
W. Sharp, developing the approach of G. Markowitz, divided the risk into 2 parts: 1st - market risk (systematic) for stock assets, 2nd - non-systematic.U. Sharp, having previously determined the special coefficients of the reaction of prices of bonds or shares to changes in the market situation, revealed a formula for calculating the comparative measure of the risk of securities based on the "line of efficiency of the debt capital market".
Based on the same model, W. Sharp proposed a simpler method for finding the optimal portfolio, in which the problem was reduced from quadratic to linear optimization.
The conclusions drawn by W. Sharp have become widely known as long-term asset valuation models, which are based on the proposal, the essence of which is that in a competitive market the expected risk premium changes in direct proportion to the coefficient.
Chapter 2. Features of entrepreneurial risks in developed countries
2.1 Features of entrepreneurial risks and their assessment in the US economy
The high-risk nature of many American businesses was introduced into the US economy by the fact that there were quite a few adventurous people among the immigrants. They forced the more conservative and less risk-averse colonists to take risks in their commercial activities.
According to American concepts, risk is the chance of incurring loss or damage as a result of engaging in any activity. Of course, some types of risk can be transferred to insurance organizations by concluding appropriate insurance contracts. However, most of the risks (changes in prices and demand, managerial errors, a project chosen incorrectly by the firm, etc.) fall entirely on the merchants. The experience of many market economies tells us that doing business is impossible without risk. Those who do not take risks will eventually fail!
In the US, risk applies to individuals, that is, each organizer of the enterprise takes a risk, but thanks to this risk, society as a whole remains to gain. Undoubtedly, the presence of diverse and numerous types of risk almost everywhere in the US business system brings great benefits to society and the national economy. economy. A businessman, based on assumptions about the degree of risk, tries to be careful when making responsible incremental decisions. The more thorough the preliminary study was carried out before the start of important and large projects, the less likely it is to incur losses, therefore, the less risk.
The presence of a risk factor for American entrepreneurs is a strong incentive to save money and resources. All this, in turn, forces organizations to over-carefully analyze the profitability of projects, over-responsibly create investment plans (budgets), purchase resources, hire personnel, etc. One of the main reasons for wastefulness, uneconomical attitude to resources and funds, as American economists believe, is the lack of consideration of the risk factor when making and developing incremental decisions, which is inextricably linked with alienation from property. Most likely, legislative changes in the field of property in our country should determine the risk factor, which should take its rightful place in our business life, and then the American experience in this area will be useful to us to a large extent.
As an illustrative example - with what ambiguous and sometimes complex decisions, what great risks entrepreneurship faces, but what benefits a commercial organization gives to society, if its decision turned out to be really rightly chosen, let's give an example with the development of nylon by the well-known DuPont company.
During ten years of persistent and often frustrating research work, which cost $36 million, there were many doubts and reproaches from shareholders, scientists, and the press. But in the end, the company was successful, and along with this success, humanity received a material that has changed our lives today in many ways - nylon.
Typically, large commercial organizations allocate large sums for research, which are written off in advance as losses. However, experience tells us that these funds are not spent in vain. Risk is an inherent feature of entrepreneurial activity, but it is accepted only after thorough calculations.
There are issues of entrepreneurial risk associated with the choice of plan/project. In the US, there are many reference books and major studies on entrepreneurial risk. Each specialized magazine such as "Fortune" or "Business Week" has special headings that are devoted to the problems of accounting for risk in credit, investments, the acquisition of securities, and so on. There are publications for people who do not have a financial education, for example, the magazine "Money". Almost all large financial companies (for example, "Merrill Lynsh") issue free methodological recommendations on various types of business risk issues.
Risk management is a top management priority for 78% of US midsize businesses. 3/4 of US companies recognize a strong correlation (statistical relationship) between risk management and firm value.
But one way or another, the management of 1/3 of American enterprises does not know whether their company is suffering significant losses or not! For example, only 8% of mid-sized European companies employ at least one professional risk manager. This is primarily due to the lack of personnel.
2.2 Features of entrepreneurial risks and their assessment in the French economy
In France, where entrepreneurial activity, and in it the prevention of entrepreneurial risk, historically occupy an important place in the economic system, and the support infrastructure was formed in the course of their development, changed following their needs, the role of the state is high, which traditionally plays a large role in the country's economy and its regulation.
As one of the largest economies in the European Union, France, in the course of its economic development, has developed many means and methods for creating legal, economic, financial and organizational conditions for the successful functioning of entrepreneurial activities in a highly competitive market environment. The infrastructure to support this sector of the economy has been built in France for decades and has many strengths.
The experience of France, a country where the infrastructure for supporting small businesses from entrepreneurial risk includes both state-owned companies that provide financial support, and various private companies that provide various services, including educational, consulting, etc. Moreover, comprehensive support and in the domestic and foreign markets.
It should be emphasized that the study of the French experience in the formation of entrepreneurial activity and its support is practically not covered in the scientific literature.
It was noted above that entrepreneurial activities occupy an important place in the French economy, even if we consider only their number (more than 99% of the total, with micro-enterprises and individual entrepreneurs accounting for 93.55%). At the same time, we note that entrepreneurial activity in France has changed significantly over the past 20-30 years. Previously, small manufacturing enterprises represented a rather archaic market segment, since their owners could afford to purchase either outdated or cheap equipment. Since then, the situation has qualitatively changed. Modern small and medium-sized enterprises, in the field of production, use high technologies.
However, the lack of activity in France abroad can be noted, although comparative studies conducted in France of exporting enterprises and enterprises that sell their goods only in the domestic market show that the former are larger and more productive and profitable.
Thus, the policy of supporting entrepreneurship is focused on solving the social or economic problems of France, namely: reducing unemployment by creating new enterprises, improving the competitiveness of the economy by increasing the size.
The French government and business community are aware that it is important to move from government assistance to small businesses to a policy of creating an enabling environment for entrepreneurship. And the support policy should ensure the sharing of risks (especially financial ones) not only during the establishment of the enterprise, but also during its development, as well as limiting complex administrative procedures.
The main state body responsible for promoting the development of entrepreneurial activity is the Department of Trade, Craft and Service Enterprises (Direction des Entreprises commerciales, artisanales et de serviсes), which is part of the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry (Ministere de l Economy, des Finances et de l industry). But the activity of the French state in support of entrepreneurial business is complemented by the involvement of other partners and agencies, both state-owned and with a mixed structure, which makes it possible to reach a larger number of enterprises and find an intermediary for them that is most adapted to specific problems.
Since France is a member of the World Trade Organization, the French state cannot support entrepreneurial activities in the form of direct subsidies, and is forced to resort to indirect methods. For these purposes, two organizations were created: OSEO and Coface.
OSEO is a public organization formed in 2005 after the merger of the Bank for the Development of Small and Medium Enterprises (BDPME - la Banque de Devel oppement des PME), National Research Support Agency (Anvar - l Agence nationale de valorisation de la recherche), Agency for Industrial Innovation (AII - l Agency de l innovation industrielle) and the French Society for Financing Guarantees for Small and Medium Enterprises (Sоfaris - la Soсiete française de guarantie des finances des PME). Its purpose is to finance and support entrepreneurial activities. OSEO has supported over 80,000 businesses.
To facilitate access to bank loans in business activities, OSEO is ready to share the risks of loans issued for the creation of an enterprise with banks, guaranteeing a certain amount (40 or 70%) of the repayment of financing or lending to enterprises jointly with banks. OSEO's activities in the area of financing and guarantees cover three types of needs of small businesses and their partners: long-term lending and co-financing with banks, short-term financing, various types of guarantees.
On the one hand, it is difficult to overestimate the activities of OSEO, since, for example, without the guarantee of this institution, almost no bank in France will provide a loan for the creation of a new enterprise. On the other hand, in forums and articles, one can find dozens of opinions of entrepreneurs who believe that they were "cheated" by the banks that issued loans for the creation of their enterprises, OSEO, which did not inform them enough, and the system as a whole, which contains deliberate ambiguity. Of course, we are not talking about deceit, but rather that the products that OSEO provides are not simple and unambiguous, and those entrepreneurs who, during the economic growth phase, did not understand, for example, the conditions for submitting OSEO guarantees, or were misled by employees banks suffered during the crisis when their businesses went bankrupt.
OSEO provides support not only in the domestic market, but also to enterprises wishing to enter world markets, however, the main company that guarantees export risks in France is Coface (Compagnie française d assurance pour le commerce exterieur - French company for guarantees for international trade), established in 1946. Coface deals mainly with credit insurance, which warns and covers non-payments of any exporting enterprises (not only small and medium ones). It can be noted that, on the one hand, the tools offered by French governmental and non-governmental organizations to support the activities of SMEs abroad are extremely diverse, but on the other hand, they are quite difficult to use, especially for small enterprises, where there is often a shortage of staff familiar with the intricacies their use.
In connection with the lagging behind France from the countries-innovation leaders and the need to mitigate the consequences of the global crisis, it became necessary to significantly modernize the national innovation strategy. Most of the support measures used by the French government are aimed at indirect support for R&D in enterprises. For example, the use of tax incentives such as the research tax credit and the Young Innovative Enterprise status has become one of the most important instruments of French innovation policy in recent years.
Thus, we can conclude that in modern France there is a strong political will to increase the amount of resources allocated to R&D. Indeed, there is a particular emphasis on expanding private R&D by strengthening the innovative behavior of companies, especially SMEs. All support measures correspond to the main priorities and contribute to strengthening the trend of increasing spending on the creation of new innovative technologies and overcoming the backlog of France in the creation of innovative products and technologies.
Risk management is ranked as a top management priority by 64% of French and Belgian medium-sized firms.
On average in Europe, 20% of firms are engaged in ad hoc risk management, i.e. only during the incident, of which in France this figure is about 33%.
Only 8% of European medium-sized firms employ at least one professional risk manager. This is primarily due to the lack of staff.
Chapter 3. Practical foundations of entrepreneurial risk on the example of Russia
3.1 Key business risks in Russia
The process of business risk management in Russia is developing rapidly, domestic companies are adopting the experience of Western firms in formalizing and quantifying their approach to managing business risks. Given the increasing complexity of this approach, it is not surprising that businesses in Russia manage more risks than in other emerging market economies.
Let's consider the spectrum of risks in entrepreneurship and answer the question of whether Russian enterprises are actively managing these risks (see Chart 1).
Russian companies show a higher degree of active management of most of the mentioned business risks than the average for companies in emerging market economies. The degree of management of other risks in business is generally on par with that observed in other emerging market economies, with the only real exceptions being price risks in business (77% in Russia vs. 81% on average for emerging market economies) and market risks. or competitive risks in business (73% in Russia against 79% on average in countries with developing market economies).
Some of the Russian executives interviewed noted the difficulty of managing business risks in a rapidly changing market environment. The analysis revealed that many companies in Russia consider the conscious maintenance of a positive image as an integral part of the competitive risk management system. More active reputational risk management in Russia (92% versus 82% on average for emerging market economies) confirms this conclusion.
Graph. 1 - Risk Management in Emerging Market Economies
It is important to consider the question of what risks in entrepreneurship in Russia are considered the most significant. Based on the data obtained, the following diagram was compiled, reflecting the priority of entrepreneurial risks and methods of managing them.
Graph. 2 - Key business risks faced by companies in Russia
When interviewed, entrepreneurs mentioned market or competitive risk as the main risk factor in Russia. According to the results of a selective survey, entrepreneurs in Russia give them a priority of 35%. In order to manage this risk, enterprises in Russia closely monitor the state and trends of the market and seek to determine the strategy of their competitors. There is a conscious desire to form and maintain a positive image, as well as to improve the social status of the enterprise.
Russian enterprises consider credit risks or risks associated with the insolvency of buyers as their main risks. Although these risks are of great concern to entrepreneurs of enterprises in all emerging market economies and rank second in importance among all risks, enterprises in Russia give them a significantly higher weight (45% in Russia versus 25% on average in emerging market economies). ). The study showed that a significant proportion of Russian enterprises, before establishing business relations with buyers or customers, conducts a rigorous due diligence of potential partners, including an assessment of the history of relations with the client, analysis of its creditworthiness and constant monitoring of activities. It is also common practice to limit the size of lending and work on a full prepayment basis.
In general, businesses in Russia view compliance with legal and regulatory requirements as a significant risk that needs to be controlled, but do not prioritize it as much as competitive, credit or foreign exchange risks.
Imperfect legislation remains the main obstacle to the growth of insurance of financial and business risks
In a situation where Russian enterprises are expanding their presence abroad, which is accompanied by the need to comply with local laws, the point of view of Russian managers is somewhat different. The study found that compliance risks are given more importance in Russia, as evidenced by third place on the priority scale (27%) compared to sixth place internationally (15%). As is the case with other difficult-to-control risks, such as market risks, many Russian enterprises follow a policy of constantly monitoring changes in the regulatory framework. Businesses are more likely to react to changes in the international regulatory framework, but do not predict them.
A number of Russian company executives also confirm the creation of specialized risk management units or legal departments, whose competence includes managing the risks of non-compliance with regulatory requirements.
Transaction risk was another area that enterprises in Russia attach more importance to than the average in other countries (19% versus 9% on average for emerging market economies). Measures to manage these risks are varied and include a thorough assessment, a clear and documented approach, trained personnel in the field of risk management, constant monitoring at all stages, and transaction insurance.
In addition, entrepreneurs in Russia, as well as in other countries with developing market economies, cite foreign exchange or liquidity risks, political, personnel and price risks as the most significant risks that need to be managed in the domestic market.
The main obstacle to increasing the insurance of financial and business risks remains the imperfection of Russian legislation.
Insurance of business and financial risks in our time remains a "curiosity" in the Russian Federation. But as the country integrates into the world economy, it will become much more in demand than it is now.
If we say that insurance is the highest mathematics of finance, then, of course, we will have to say that the insurance of financial risks is the highest mathematics of insurance, because they determine each other. In the category of financial risks, we include a fairly wide and not completely defined list of risks.
When we mention business risk insurance, here it is a different case. Often, when we talk about insurance of financial and business risks, we do not distinguish between these two types.
But the law "On the organization of insurance business in the Russian Federation" contains a "Classification of types of insurance" (Article 32.9), in which 2 different types are distinguished: "Insurance of financial risks" and "Insurance of business risks".
The object of financial risk insurance is the property interests of the insured, which are associated with the occurrence of expenses or losses due to the circumstances that were stipulated in the insurance contract.
A distinctive feature of business risk insurance, therefore, are the risks that are directly related to the implementation of commercial activities by the insured. This category also includes credit risk, receivables and business interruption insurance.
Based on the data of the Federal Service for Financial Markets of Russia (Fig. 2), we can say that in 2011, insurance companies collected 12.03 billion rubles of premiums in the business and financial risk insurance sector, which significantly exceeds the figure for the previous year, and the difference is 46.7%. Although, we should note that at the same time, the share of these types of insurance in the total volume of the insurance market, excluding compulsory medical insurance, at the end of the year amounted, according to various estimates, from 1.8 to 3% of the total insurance premium collected on the market, and if we talk only about insurance D & O - then about 1%.
Fig. 4 - Insurance of business and financial risks.
“Most likely, the traditional hope for the Russian “maybe” and that financial losses can somehow be avoided also plays a role. But recently, the recognition of this type of insurance as an effective and relatively inexpensive business tool has been growing. for example, operational or credit risks, the company becomes more attractive to investors and creditors."
The formation of a market system is also hampered by the general unpreparedness of insurers to start systemic insurance fin. risks, as well as the macroeconomic situation both in the Russian Federation and in the world, which does not always allow insurers to adequately assess risks.
The main obstacle to the development of financial insurance. Risks nevertheless continues to be our imperfection of the legislation. Financial risks, for example, do not have a separate article in the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, there is no separate law.
Not every type of business risk insurance provides tax incentives. Let's give an illustrative example: in the Russian Federation, almost any type of insurance, with the exception of property insurance, is paid from profit.
Another problem is the fact that foreign insurers do not have the right to take part in the insurance of our Russian residents. The elimination of this problem would allow our insurers to have open access to first-class foreign companies, which could raise competition to a whole new level and, therefore, this would ensure the development of the segment in particular and the market as a whole. Imperfection (in terms of underdevelopment) of the market creates obstacles and therefore the number of insurance companies that would be ready to offer high-quality financial risk insurance services remains small.
In fact, there are not very many insurers who would be able to take on such risks, which reflects the correctness of our judgments before. This type of insurance is in demand, however, the possibilities of insurers are limited, and many specifically do not want to take such risks for insurance due to the imperfection of the legislative framework and the lack of law enforcement practice in the territory of the Russian Federation.
The changes currently taking place in the economy of the Russian Federation do not create a low risk background for all kinds of economic activity. The discipline of risk management in a market economy in the highest circles of Russia remains rather unsettled: the position of "risk manager" and related topics are mentioned in several university programs, but the issue of adopting an appropriate standard is unnecessarily dragged out. A large number of businessmen who live in the conditions of everyday incessant risks cannot afford to divert their attention from current affairs in order to study risk management and the risks of their company as well.
Cardinal changes in Russia began in the conditions of the collapse of the Soviet Union, political and economic instability, and inconsistencies in a number of laws. This course of events inevitably increased the overall degree of risks in the economy of our country. This is important, because the level and specifics of risks to a decisive extent affect its investment and general business climate.
For Russia, most of the already existing risk-related experience is only a foreign share. How sad it would be to say this, but the Russian economy is becoming a "leader" in disasters and losses, and conscious risk management has not yet become a standard management activity, which, as already mentioned, has long been common in the West and in America. At one time, all countries with a developed market economy went through periods of development similar to the modern period in Russia. Only this process was evolutionarily extended over decades, which allowed them to accumulate experience, create specialized literature, develop market infrastructure, form a culture that allows these nations to deal with unjustified risks: high and low.
In the summer of 2010, with the direct support of the Russian Society for Risk Management (RusRisk) and the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), we conducted a postal survey of about a thousand companies participating in the competition for the title of the best enterprise in the Russian Federation. Most of those who filled out the questionnaire hold positions with various titles, but in general something similar to chief executive officers (CEOs), chief financial officers (CFOs), or deputy chief executives for development and/or marketing. The conclusions that we can draw already on the basis of this study are not without interest. Below are the main results of the survey.
Most of the respondents consider the risk situation in the Russian Federation to be about 1.5 times more tense than in countries with, in their opinion, a well-established market economy. This is similar to the results of studies conducted by such industry leaders as Marsh, AIG, AON and Willis, which classify the Russian Federation as a high-risk country for almost all major risks. According to the results of a similar survey, respondents on average assess the riskiness of Russia at the level of 65-70 points on a 100-point scale. You can't say it's good or bad. This is indicative, because the Russian economy really requires the development of a risk management infrastructure, and most investors, with the exception of some venture funds, prefer to work in less "warmed up" economies. All this tells us that Russia's prospects are not as bleak as they think abroad. Although, it's no secret that foreign investors underestimate the Russian market. So, let's get down to the facts.
Here are the findings of yet another survey: foreigners assess the Russian level of risks by 10-15% higher than Russian managers do. At the same time, Russian managers believe that it is easier and safer for foreigners to work in Russia than for domestic entrepreneurs; about 40% of competent respondents have increased sensitivity to risk, approximately 40% - moderate, and 20% - clearly underestimated; the risk spectrum from the most relevant risks to the less relevant ones (according to a 100-point system) means (Fig. 3):
Fig.5 - Assessment of the Russian level by foreigners
The specificity of the risk situation in the Russian economy that we briefly present leads to two main results - inadequate riskiness and inadequate caution of the organizers of enterprises (and companies, firms, organizations in general), which ultimately leads to a drop in their level of competitiveness in the modern market. The risks increase every time the degree of instability increases, rapid reforms or spontaneous changes occur in the economy, that is, during periods of its transformation. Composition and magnitude of many market risks. economies are influenced by people and various organizations. The frequency and severity of the consequences of probable, but not mandatory and highly undesirable events, to a large extent depends on their actual activity/actions. The behavior of firms is revealed by its management, that is, the decisions made by their leaders. Much is needed to address the high riskiness of the Russian economy, but two factors are paramount: a sound education system and political will.
Another result of the protracted restructuring is obsolete fixed assets. Buildings and structures are old and have not been repaired for a long time. Machine tools, locomotives, aircraft and ships are worn out. Depreciation of fixed assets in the Russian economy as of the beginning of the XXI century. different experts estimate from 60% to 70%. The risks posed by the country's huge large park that is outdated and has not been properly maintained for many decades are extremely high.
We should be aware that studies have shown that the composition of risks, which is included in the current risk profile of Russian companies, does not differ too much from those of Western organizations. Insurers and bankers have already done enough to study the real risk profile of the Russian economy. However, this is not enough. We need to bring the level of knowledge and awareness of the risks of the modern Russian economy to the level of countries with old market traditions that developed back in the last century.
In the conjuncture of the Russian Federation, the need to quickly master risk management methods is primarily due to the fact that effective mechanisms for supporting organizations in crisis situations have not yet been developed. Most of the economically active objects are legally independent. This means no obligation to provide government support or protection in the event of a strike, accident or financial hardship. Existing state systems of judiciary, arbitration and enforcement are not only ineffective, but are sometimes used for aggressive purposes. In other words, the economic independence of an economic entity implies both an increase in opportunities and an increase in dangers. This is a general increase in strategic risk, which implies an increase in risks throughout the risk space. In such conditions, former socialist organizations or newly created capitalist companies are obliged to personally take care of preventive measures to protect their own sustainability, to create vital reserves, to mobilize internal and external financing, both to prevent undesirable events and to recover from them. The situation is also getting worse due to the fact that the Soviet mentality of many organizers and managers of enterprises has not been overcome, who see state bodies as a reliable stabilizing factor, whose authority for them is indisputable. In reality, things now have to be dealt with with sharply increased uncertainties of various kinds and types without the participation of the state - direct state support.
.2 Ways to reduce business risk
Entrepreneurial activity is risky. The task of the entrepreneur is the activity aimed at reducing the degree of entrepreneurial risk as much as possible. To solve the problem, various methods are used: diversification, limiting, insurance, reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses, risk distribution, obtaining more information about the upcoming choice and results.
Diversification has such a definition as the distribution of capital investments among various types of activities, the results of which are not directly related to each other.
The peculiarity of diversification is that an enterprise that incurs losses in one type of activity can make a profit at the expense of another type of activity. Diversification improves the company's resilience to changes in the business environment.
Insurance plays a significant role in business risk and has its own definition, it is a kind of "transfer" of certain risks to an insurance company. To reduce the degree of risk, property insurance and accident insurance are widely used. Property insurance is usually divided into the following forms: contract construction risk insurance, equipment insurance, cargo insurance, etc. Accident insurance includes general civil liability insurance and professional liability insurance. Also widely used in our country is such a type of insurance as hedging, which is an insurance of the price of goods against the risk of either a fall that is undesirable for the organizers of production, or an increase that is unfavorable for the consumer.
According to the technique and purposes of the operation, hedging is divided into hedging by sale, that is, the preparation and acceptance by the manufacturer or commodity owner of a futures contract in order to insure against a price reduction when selling in the future goods, either already available or not yet produced, but provided for mandatory delivery within a certain period; purchase hedging - the conclusion by the seller or consumer of a futures contract in order to insure against an increase in price when buying in the future the necessary type of manufactured product.
Limitation implies limit attribution, i.e. deterministic cost amounts, sale of goods on loan, capital investment amounts, etc.
Reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses implies establishing a ratio between possible risks and the amount of expenses that are necessary to overcome the negative consequences of these risks. This method of risk reduction is most often used in the execution of various kinds of projects. In general cases, the reserve is applicable to finance additional work, compensate for unforeseen changes in material and labor costs, overheads and other types of costs that arise during the implementation of the assigned project.
By risk sharing, we mean the sharing of risk among the participants in the project itself. The growth in the size and duration of investment, the introduction of new technologies, the high dynamism of the external environment - all this increases the degree of risk of the project being adopted. So, one of the ways to share the risk is factoring operations. In the practice of foreign banks, the development of factoring operations is mainly associated with the need for individual suppliers to quickly receive payments that seem doubtful to them. As a rule, in such situations there is a risk associated with non-payment of money by the payer at all. The bank that bought such claims from the supplier may in this case incur losses itself. Factoring operations are classified as extremely high-risk operations. The size of the commission depends both on the level of risk (on the level of "doubtfulness" of the redeemed debt), and on the duration of the contractual delay. In some cases, it reaches up to twenty percent of the total payment amount. Any management decision is made in conditions where the results are not defined and the information is not complete or even limited. Thus, the wider the information source, the more opportunities to make a better forecast and reduce the perceived risk. The cost of complete information should be calculated as the difference between the likely cost of a particular activity (project) when complete (or nearly complete) information is available and the expected cost when information is not complete.
There are 3 main principles for risk reduction that should be considered common in business reality:
do not risk more than your own capital allows;
always remember the consequences of risk;
Don't risk a lot for a little.
Conclusion
Any enterprise bears the risks associated with its production, commercial and other activities, and the heads of the enterprise are responsible for the consequences of management decisions made by the company. The risk factor in entrepreneurial activity increases significantly during periods of unstable economic conditions, accompanied by inflationary processes, super-expensive loans, etc. This was especially pronounced at the beginning of the 2008 global financial crisis.
We considered entrepreneurial risk as well as an economic category, whereby we defined risk as an event that may or may not occur.
Of course, entrepreneurial risk is the reverse side of economic freedom, a certain price for it. The freedom of one organizer of an enterprise is accompanied at the same time by the freedom of other entrepreneurs. It is quite reasonably assumed that whoever does not risk does not win. In order to achieve economic profit, an entrepreneur must consciously take one or another risky decision. We can also define entrepreneurial risk as the danger of a potentially probable, possible loss of capital or the receipt of only a part of income compared to the option that involves the rational use of capital in this type of entrepreneurial activity ...
Business in Russia is an extremely risky occupation, and the problems of insuring these risks are becoming perhaps the most important and relevant among other insurance problems.
The variety of entrepreneurial risks is very large - from fires and natural disasters to interethnic conflicts, changes in legislation and fluctuations in inflation. However, they have a single special feature that distinguishes them from the general concept of "risk" - this is subjectivity, which reflects the influence of the personal human qualities of the organizer of the enterprise on the degree of risk. A fire can happen at any enterprise, but with a high degree of probability it will happen where the entrepreneur, in the pursuit of super profits, neglects fire safety rules. Therefore, when insuring entrepreneurial risks, the main thing is to be able to distinguish objective risk factors from subjective, speculative ones that depend solely on the personality of the entrepreneur. Such subjective risks for insurance, as a rule, are not accepted in practice.
Entrepreneurial risks largely depend on the type of entrepreneurial activity - production, services, trade. Depending on this, certain types of property and liability insurance are applied, and when it comes to protecting the personal interests of employees or the production manager himself, then types of personal insurance. Specific types of business risk insurance are insurance of banking and financial risks, and we can also include insurance of risks of foreign trade operations among them.
Financial risk is usually understood as the risk that arises in financial transactions (investing in banks, playing on the stock exchange, shares, etc.). This risk is associated with non-receipt of income or with the loss of part (or even all) of the money and, in fact, is speculative. Therefore, only the objective part of the financial risks associated, for example, with the bankruptcy of an enterprise partner of the insured, is accepted for insurance. Another type of financial risk is investment risk. It is associated with the specifics of investing (investing) funds in various projects. An important type of financial risk insurance is insurance of losses from temporary stoppages in production, for example, due to a fire in a workshop.
Banking, like any business, is inevitably associated with risks. In foreign, and in recent years in domestic practice, banking risk insurance is singled out in the general package of insurance coverage for banks.
Insurance of commercial and political risks of foreign trade operations in developed countries is an integral part of foreign economic activity. Political risks are associated with changes in state policy, legislation, the emergence of armed conflicts in the country where the funds of domestic investors are invested. Commercial risks, in turn, are associated with the bankruptcy of foreign partners, the loss of goods in transit, delays in payments, etc.
In general, business risk insurance is comprehensive, including all branches of insurance…
Bibliography
Official documents:
1.Law of the Russian Federation of November 27, 1992 N 4015-I "On the organization of insurance business in the Russian Federation" (as amended and supplemented by the edition of December 25, 2012)
Monographs, collective works, collections of scientific papers:
2.Avdisky VI, Gerasimov P.A., Lebedev I.A. Analysis and forecasting of risks in the system of economic security of economic entities. Textbook: At 2 pm M .: Financial Academy, 2007.
3.Antonova N.A. Entrepreneurial risk insurance: problems and prospects // Lawyer. 2003. No. 9.
.Antoshina T. Entrepreneurial Risk Insurance // Financial Director. 2003. No. 12.
.Valigursky D.I. Organization of entrepreneurial activity: textbook. - 2nd ed., revised. and additional - M.: Publishing and Trade Corporation "Dashkov and K0", 2010. - 520 p.
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.Gorfinkel V.Ya. Entrepreneurship [Text]: Textbook - 4th ed. revised and additional M.: Infra-M, 2008. - 735 p.
.Grishina N.A. Assessment of the risk of the activity of an economic entity in the conditions of the uncertainty of the economic situation // Questions of evaluation. 2001. No. 1.
.Krutik A.B., Reshetova M.V. Fundamentals of Entrepreneurship: Textbook. M.: Academy, 2010. - 320 p.
.Lapusta M.G. Small Business: Textbook - 3rd ed. revised and additional M.: INFRA-M, 2010. - 685 p.42
.Maltseva E., Savkina R. Organization of entrepreneurial activity: Textbook. M.: Knorus, 2011. - 216 p.
.Malyugina A.A. Experience in supporting small and medium-sized innovative enterprises in France [text] / A.A. Malyugina // Banking services. - 2011. - No. 4. S.23-26. (0.35 p. l.).
.Minat V.N. Financial environment of entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial risks: a textbook for universities. - M.: Publishing house "Exam", 2006. - 189 p.
.F. Knight "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit" (Eng. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, 1921) / ed. and additional M: Delo (Moscow) - 2003; (in the series "Modern institutional and economic theory"), - 397 p.
.Chernova G.V. Risk management: textbook / G.V. Chernova, A.A. Kudryavtsev. - M.: Prospekt, 2009. - 158 p.
Internet resources:
16.Information and analytical portal (PROFILE): [website]. URL: #"center"> Applications
Attachment 1
Comparative analysis of risk impact assessment methods
Group of methodsContent of methodsInformation baseIndicators of risk assessmentAdvantagesDisadvantagesPoint estimation of risk probabilityThe probability of obtaining the actual value of the result is less than the criterion parameter. Based on the law of distribution of possible values of the results of activities Statistical data Probability of the result deviating from the specified value; frequency; frequency Objectivity Difficulty in selecting an appropriate distribution function; based on historical data; the necessary statistical information is not always available; does not contain an assessment of the reliability of the result obtained Interval assessment of the risk indicator The probability that the result of the situation will be within the specified interval is calculated. the probability of obtaining such a probability result; confidence interval; time horizonObjectivity. Assessing the probability of the result Difficulty in selecting an appropriate distribution function; based on historical data; the necessary statistical information is not always available; the composition and structure of the estimated parameters (assets) must remain unchanged over the time interval Statistical assessment of the risk indicator The average expected value of the result and the fluctuation of the possible result relative to the average expected value are calculated Statistical data Mathematical expectation; variation range indicator; dispersion; standard deviation; confidence interval; coefficient of variation Simplicity of mathematical calculations The variance does not show the sign of the deviation; a large amount of data is needed; based on historical data; the necessary statistical information is not always available Expert risk assessment A set of logical and mathematical procedures aimed at obtaining information from expert experts, its analysis and generalization in order to choose a rational decision Expert information A set of indicators developed within the framework of a specific study Statistical information is not required
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- Safarova Elvira Shamilovna, student
- Bashkir State Agrarian University
- BUSINESS RISKS
The article describes the concept of entrepreneurial risk, its essence and types of classifications.
- The current state of business risk insurance in the Russian Federation
- Assessment of business risks and criteria for choosing the effectiveness of their solution
- Efficiency of risk assessment and possible socio-economic consequences of risk occurrence
- Legal regulation of the issues of assessing the quality of public (municipal) services provided in Russia
Any business activity is subject to risks.
Risk is usually understood as the potential (possible) danger of losses that arise from the specifics of certain natural phenomena or human activities.
Entrepreneurial risk is a risk arising from any type of business activity related to the production of products, the sale of goods and the provision of services; commodity-money and financial transactions; commerce, as well as the implementation of scientific and technical projects.
Entrepreneurial risk- the danger of a potentially possible, probable loss of resources or a shortfall in income in comparison with their expected (forecast) value. The complexity of classifying entrepreneurial risks lies in their diversity. There are certain categories of risks that affect all types of business activities, but at the same time, there are specific risks that affect only companies that operate in certain areas of activity. For example, specific risks are inherent in production, trade, banking, and insurance activities.
Based on the sources of occurrence, all entrepreneurial risks can be divided into internal and external.
- Internal risks arise directly in the company itself: risks generated by personnel (low level of qualification, incompetence, abuse); inefficient management, miscalculations in strategic planning, etc.
- External risks include risks that are beyond the control of the company, i.e. the company cannot influence them, but can only foresee: natural disasters, strikes, hostilities, changes in legislation and taxation systems, nationalization, restrictions on the financial and credit market, etc.
According to the impact time, business risks can be divided into short-term and permanent ones.
- Short term risks exist for a certain period of time and, in principle, can be clearly defined. For example, the risk of payment for delivered goods exists until the buyer counterparty settles.
- Permanent risks continuously threaten the company's business in a particular geographic region or area of business, For example, for a farm in a particular geographic region, there is always a risk of adverse environmental conditions (frosts, drought, heavy rains, etc.) that have a negative impact on crop yields .
Entrepreneurial risk can also be divided into industrial, commercial and financial.
- Production risk is directly related to the economic activity of the enterprise, focused on obtaining maximum profit by meeting the needs and requests of customers in accordance with market requirements.
In the production activities of an industrial enterprise, the following risks can be distinguished:
- the risk of complete or partial shutdown of the enterprise due to failures in the supply of materials, components and other resources necessary to ensure the production;
- the risk of selling manufactured products (problems with sales);
- the risk of non-receipt or untimely receipt of funds for products shipped for sale;
- the risk of the buyer refusing to receive and paid for products or the risk of a return;
- the risk of disruption of concluded agreements for the provision of loans, investments or credits;
- price risk associated with determining the price of products and services sold by the enterprise, as well as the risk in determining the price of the necessary means of production, used raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, labor and capital (in the form of interest rates on loans). Significant miscalculations in pricing can have catastrophic consequences for the enterprise, lead to a significant loss of market share, an increase in product balances (unsold products), etc. Price risk increases significantly in an inflationary environment;
- the risk of bankruptcy of both business partners (counterparties: distributors, suppliers, etc.) and the enterprise itself.
- Commercial risk associated with commercial activities. It arises in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by the enterprise (for example, trade risks, transport risks, competition risks, etc.).
- financial risk associated with financial activities. It arises in the implementation of financial transactions, based on the fact that the role of a commodity is capital, securities, currency (for example, credit risk, currency, interest, investment).
Entering the market, we will have to deal with uncertainty and increased risk. Not to avoid risk, but to be able to assess its probability, degree and acceptable limits - this is the task of any market subject. In itself, the presence of risk that accompanies the activity of a market enterprise is not a disadvantage of a market economy. Moreover, the absence of risk, that is, the danger of unpredictable and undesirable consequences for the enterprise of its own actions, as a rule, harms the economy, since it undermines its dynamism and efficiency.
Bibliography
- Zapolskikh Yu.A., Bakirova A.F. Managing the risk of bankruptcy of an enterprise in modern economic conditions In the collection: World science and modern society: topical issues of economics, sociology and law. Materials of the International scientific-practical conference. 2013. S. 84-87.
- Zaripova, G.M. Financial and credit support of entrepreneurship [Text] / G.M.
- Zapolskikh Yu.A. Credit risk and the main ways to minimize it. Economy and society. 2014. No. 2-2 (11). pp. 126-128.
For effective management, it is necessary to be able to influence factors external to the organization. Changes in the external environment are very significant. Managers have to consider their influence, since the organization depends on the outside world for the supply of resources, energy, personnel, as well as the availability of customers. The survival of the organization largely depends on the leader, so the manager must be able to identify the most significant external factors affecting it. He must find and offer rational ways to respond to external influences, primarily means of overcoming the risk caused by the uncertainty of the external environment. The more ambiguities, the greater the risk and the more difficult it is to make effective decisions.
Risk is an inherent property of activity in the market conditions. Every organization seeks to increase profit by minimizing risk.
The risk also existed in the command economy, but it was associated with the possibility of non-fulfillment of state orders, violation of supply contracts, lack of transport, resources, etc. Responsibility for all this could be shifted to a higher organization, and losses could be compensated from ministerial funds. In a market economy, the state is not responsible for the obligations of the enterprise, all the consequences of the risk fall on the entrepreneur.
Risk is the likelihood of a loss or decrease in income compared to the predicted option. Business is impossible without risk, it is the reverse side of the freedom of enterprise, a kind of payment for it. As market relations develop in Russia, competition intensifies. To survive in these conditions, you need to decide on the introduction of technical and other innovations, on bold, non-standard actions, and this increases the risk. We have to come to terms with the inevitability of risk, learn to predict it, evaluate it and not go beyond acceptable limits. At the same time, practice shows that the higher the level of risk, the greater the profit in case of success.
The following types of entrepreneurial risk are known.
Production risk is associated with the production of products, goods, services, the implementation of any type of production activity. Among the reasons for the emergence of such a risk are a decrease in the size of production, an increase in material and other costs, the payment of increased interest, deductions, taxes, etc.
Commercial (commodity) risk arises in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by the entrepreneur. Its reasons are a decrease in the volume of sales due, for example, to changes in the market situation, an increase in the purchase price, an unforeseen decrease in the volume of purchases, losses of goods in the circulation process, an increase in distribution costs.,
Financial risk arises in the sphere of relations of the enterprise with banks and other financial institutions. It is usually measured by the ratio of borrowed funds to own: the higher this ratio, the more the company depends on creditors, the higher the financial risk, since the restriction or termination of lending, tightening of credit conditions lead to a halt in production due to lack of raw materials, etc.
Financial risks are divided into two types: those associated with the purchasing power of money and capital investment (investment risks).
The risks associated with the purchasing power of money include inflation and currency risks.
Inflationary risk arises if the income received as a result of inflation depreciates faster than it grows (in terms of purchasing power).
Currency risk is associated with significant losses due to changes in the foreign exchange rate. This type of risk is especially important and needs to be assessed when carrying out export-import operations with currency values.
The group of investment risks is very extensive and includes the following risks: systemic, selective, liquidity, credit, regional, sectoral, enterprise, innovative.
Systemic risk is the risk of deterioration of the conjuncture (fall) of any market as a whole. It is not associated with a specific investment object and represents a general risk for all investments in this market (stock, currency, real estate, etc.), which means that the investor will not be able to return them without incurring significant losses. The analysis of systemic risk boils down to the problem of whether it is worth dealing with this type of asset, such as shares, or investing in other types of property, such as real estate.
Selective risk is the risk of loss or loss of profit due to the wrong choice of an investment object in a particular market, for example, the wrong choice of a security from those available on the stock market when forming a portfolio of securities.
Liquidity risk is associated with the possibility of losses in the sale of an investment object due to a change in the assessment of its quality, for example, any product, real estate (land, buildings), securities, etc.
Credit risk is the risk that a borrower (debtor) will be unable to meet its obligations. Examples include deferring loan repayments or freezing bond payments.
Regional risk is associated with the economic situation of certain regions. It is typical for single-product regions, for example, coal- or oil-producing regions, cotton-producing regions, which may experience serious economic difficulties as a result of changes in the market conditions (falling prices) for the main product of this region or increased competition.
Regional risks may arise in connection with political or economic separatism, as well as the general depressed state of the economy in a number of regions (a decline in production, high
unemployment rate).
Industry risk is associated with the specifics of individual sectors of the economy, which is determined by two main factors: exposure to cyclical fluctuations and the stage of the industry's life cycle. According to these features, all industries can be divided into those subject to and less subject to cyclical fluctuations, as well as declining (dying), stable (mature) and rapidly growing (young). Of course, the risk of doing business and investing in mature or young and less cyclical industries is less.
Enterprise risk is associated with a specific enterprise as an investment object. It is largely derived from regional and industry risks, but the type of behavior, the strategy of a particular enterprise, the goals and level of its management also contribute. One level of risk is associated with a conservative type of behavior of an enterprise that occupies a certain, stable market sector, has regular customers (clientele), high quality products or services, and adheres to a strategy of limited growth. A different degree of risk is associated with an aggressive, new, perhaps just created enterprise.
In addition, enterprise risk includes the risk of fraud. For example, it is possible to create false companies in order to fraudulently attract funds from investors or joint-stock companies for speculative gambling on the quotes of securities.
Innovation risk is the risk of loss associated with the fact that an innovation, a new product or service, a new technology, the development of which may require very significant funds, will not be implemented or will not pay off.
The responsibility of the financial manager is to ensure that all types of risk are reduced, since there are no clear boundaries between the various areas of the enterprise.
In the course of evaluating alternative solutions, the manager has to predict possible outcomes. In this case, the decision is made under conditions of certainty, when the manager can accurately assess the results of each of the alternative options. An example would be investments in certificates of deposit and government bonds, where there is a government guarantee and it is known for sure that the agreed interest will be received on the invested funds.
Decisions made under risk include decisions with a known probability of obtaining any result. This occurs under conditions of uncertainty, if it is not possible to estimate the likelihood of outcomes. If the factors requiring analysis and accounting are very complex, and there is no reliable or sufficient information about them, then the probability of a particular result cannot be predicted more or less accurately. Uncertainty is also characteristic of many decisions made in rapidly changing circumstances.
Losses possible in entrepreneurial activity are divided into material, labor, financial, loss of time, special types of losses.
Material losses are manifested in unforeseen additional costs of materials, raw materials, fuel, electricity, equipment, etc. In relation to each type of loss, its own units of measurement are applicable, usually the same in which the volume of this type of material resources is measured. Due to the fact that when calculating material losses in physical terms, incomparable units of measurement are used, it is advisable to use their universal meter - a cost estimate.
Labor losses are the loss of working time caused by unforeseen circumstances.
Financial losses are direct monetary losses associated with unforeseen payments, payment of fines, penalties, additional taxes, loss of funds, securities. Financial losses also include the facts of shortfall or non-receipt of funds from the provided sources, non-recovery of debts, decrease in revenue due to a decrease in prices for goods and services sold. Special types of financial losses include monetary damage caused by inflation, depreciation of the exchange rate, additional legal withdrawals of funds to the budget.
Losses of time occur in situations where the implementation of an entrepreneurial project is carried out over a longer period than previously planned. Estimation of time losses is made in hours, days, weeks, months.
Special types of losses are manifested in damage to the health and life of people, the environment, the image of the company, the entrepreneur, and also as a result of adverse socio-economic, moral, psychological, scientific and technical factors.
Unforeseen factors include the political situation, which gives rise to political risk. It manifests itself in the form of an unexpected change in business conditions, the creation of legislative restrictions that form an unfavorable background for the development of entrepreneurship. The sources of such risk are an increase in tax rates, the introduction of compulsory deductions, changes in contractual terms, forms of ownership, relations to property and funds for political reasons.
Unforeseen losses are the consequences of natural disasters, theft, damage to property.
The losses caused by the imperfection and inconsistency of the current legislation and methodology, as well as the incompetence of persons carrying out the economic justification of entrepreneurial activity in the company, are singled out.
Of particular importance are losses due to dishonesty or insolvency of partners.
To determine the level of risk, statistical, expert and combined methods are usually used. The essence of the statistical method lies in the fact that the statistics of losses and profits that have occurred in a given or similar enterprise are studied, the magnitude and frequency of obtaining a specific economic return are established, and a probable forecast for the future is determined. The expert method consists in processing a set of opinions of experienced specialists. The most effective option is a combination of statistical and expert methods for determining risk.
RISK MANAGEMENT
The practice of doing business in market conditions makes it necessary to skillfully assess risks in the resource management process and effectively reduce or compensate for their negative consequences.
To assess the degree of risk acceptability, one should first of all single out certain zones of it, depending on the expected amount of losses. The scheme of risk zones is shown in Figure 20.
The area in which losses are not expected, that is, the economic result of economic activity is positive, is called risk-free.
The zone of acceptable risk is the area within which the amount of probable losses does not exceed the expected profit and, therefore, commercial activity is economically feasible. The boundary of the acceptable risk zone corresponds to the level of losses equal to the calculated profit.
The critical risk zone is the area of possible losses that exceed the amount of expected profit up to the value of the total estimated revenue (the sum of costs and profit). Here, the entrepreneur risks not only not getting any income, but also incurring direct losses in the amount of all production costs.
A catastrophic risk zone is an area of probable losses that exceed the critical level and can reach a value equal to the organization's own capital. A catastrophic risk can lead an organization or entrepreneur to collapse and bankruptcy. In addition, the category of catastrophic risk, regardless of the magnitude of property damage, should include the risk associated with a threat to life or health of people and the occurrence of environmental disasters.
Risk management today is one of the dynamically developing professional activities in the field of management. The staff of many Western firms has a position - a risk manager (risk manager), whose duties include ensuring the reduction of all types of risk. The risk manager participates along with the relevant specialists in making risky decisions and shares with them the responsibility for their consequences.
Risk management includes the following main areas of activity:
recognition, analysis and assessment of the degree of risk;
development and implementation of measures to prevent, minimize and insure risk;
crisis management (liquidation of the consequences of emerging losses and the development of mechanisms for the organization's survival).
It is very important for an organization to form a certain risk management strategy, for which it is necessary to give specific answers to the following questions:
what types of risks should be taken into account in their activities;
what methods and tools allow managing such risks;
how much risk the organization can take on (acceptable amount of loss that can be repaid from its own funds).
However, it is not enough just to formulate a risk management strategy, you need to have a mechanism for its implementation - a risk management system, which, in turn, implies:
creation of an effective system of evaluation and control of decisions made;
organization of a special unit (employee) who will be entrusted with risk management;
allocation of funds and formation of special reserves to insure risks and cover losses and losses.
Practice also confirms the expediency and necessity of developing a special instruction on risk management, which would regulate the actions of individual employees and structural divisions of the organization associated with possible risks. First of all, this applies to banks, credit, insurance organizations, investment institutions, as well as financial and commercial divisions of organizations of other types of activity.
Risk management methods can be divided into two main areas, differing both in goals and tools.
impact:
risk warnings and limits;
compensation for losses.
The first direction, pursuing the goal of reducing the level of risks, includes the following methods:
a thorough preliminary examination of the options for the decision being made and an assessment of the corresponding levels of risk;
risk limiting - setting the maximum amount of costs associated with a particular decision;
the use of various kinds of guarantees and pledge operations to ensure the fulfillment of the obligations of the debtor;
risk diversification, for example, investing the organization's capital in various types of activities (at least 12 companies are recommended), in various types of securities (optimally 8-20 types), optimization of the investment portfolio structure (1/3 - large firms, 1/3 - medium, 1/3 - small), duplication of suppliers (at least two suppliers, and preferably three or four), separation of lots when transporting valuable cargo (at least two lots), sales of goods and services in several market segments (different categories of consumers, customers, different regions), storage of valuables in different places, etc.;
focus on the average rate of return (yield), as the pursuit of higher profits dramatically increases the risk;
the use of effective control systems that allow timely detection and prevention of losses.
The second direction, which aims to compensate for the organizational damage caused, includes the following risk management methods:
the creation of special insurance and reserve funds (for example, joint-stock companies, in accordance with the law "On Joint-Stock Companies in the Russian Federation" (1998), are required to create a reserve fund intended to cover possible losses and repay bonded loans in the event of a lack of profit; except in addition, if it is provided for by the charter, a special fund may be created for the payment of dividends);
insurance of risks in insurance organizations - the conclusion of insurance contracts for various commercial risks, property, civil liability, etc.
There are types of business activities in which the risk can be calculated, quantified and where the methods for determining the degree of risk are well developed both in theory and in practice. The quantitative measure of risk can be determined by the absolute or relative level of losses. In absolute terms, the risk can be expressed in the amount of possible losses in physical or value terms.
Losses in manufacturing business are expressed in the following figures.
1. Decrease in the planned volumes of production and sales of products due to a decrease in labor productivity, equipment downtime or underutilization of production capacity, loss of working time, lack of the required amount of raw materials, increased bank interest, which leads to a shortfall in planned revenue.
2. Decrease in prices at which the sale of products was planned, due to its insufficiently high quality, unfavorable changes in market conditions, falling demand, price inflation, which leads to probable losses:
3. Increased material costs due to overspending of materials, raw materials, fuel, energy, lead to losses determined by dependence.
4. The amount of other costs that may arise due to high transport costs, sales costs, overhead and other incidental costs.
5. The amount of overspending of the planned wage fund due to exceeding the estimated number of employees or paying a higher than planned wage level.
6. The amount of payment of increased contributions and taxes, if in the process of implementing the business plan, the rates of contributions and taxes change in an unfavorable direction for the entrepreneur.
7. The amount of fines, natural loss, as well as losses due to natural disasters, although it is not possible to calculate such losses.
Losses in commercial enterprise are expressed by the following indicators.
1. An unfavorable change (increase) in the purchase price of goods in the process of implementing an entrepreneurial project, not blocked by the terms of the procurement contract, leads to probable losses.
2. An unexpected decrease in the volume of purchases in comparison with the planned one causes a decrease in the volume of sales, that is, the scale of the entire operation. Losses of profit (income) are calculated as the product of a decrease in the volume of purchases and the amount of profit (income) per unit volume of sales of goods.
It should be borne in mind that a decrease in the volume of purchases and sales may be accompanied by a decrease in costs, because in addition to the so-called semi-fixed costs, there are costs proportional to the volume of the operation.
3. Losses in the process of circulation (transportation, storage) or loss of quality, consumer value of the goods, leading to a decrease in its value. The level of such damage is established as the product of the volume of lost goods and the purchase price or the product of the volume of damaged goods and the reduced selling price.
4. An increase in distribution costs in comparison with the planned ones leads to a corresponding decrease in income, profit. Among the possible reasons for the increase in costs may be unforeseen duties, deductions, fines, additional costs.
5. A decrease in the price at which the goods are sold, in comparison with the design one, causes losses in the amount of the volume of sales multiplied by the amount of the price reduction.
6. A decrease in the volume of sales due to an unpredictable drop in demand or demand for a product, its displacement by competing products, restrictions on sales, can cause loss of income and profit, measured by the product of the volume of unsold products and the selling price.
As noted above, financial entrepreneurship, in fact, is also commercial entrepreneurship, but the goods here are money, securities, and currency. Consequently, the losses that are generally characteristic of commercial entrepreneurship are also inherent in financial entrepreneurship.
And yet, when assessing financial risk, it is necessary to take into account such specific factors as the insolvency of one of the agents of a financial transaction, changes in the exchange rate, securities, restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, possible withdrawal of a certain part of financial resources in the course of business activities.
In relative terms, risk can be defined as the ratio of the amount of possible losses to some base, such as capital, total costs or profits. The task, however, is complicated by the fact that in practice, when implementing a specific management decision, as a rule, it is necessary to take into account not one, but several types of risk. In this regard, the overall level of risk is determined by the sum of private risks.
It is extremely important to be able to quantify the degree of risk leading to bankruptcy. For this purpose, the risk factor is calculated.
Empirical studies show that the optimal risk ratio is 0.3, and the critical one (exceeding which leads to bankruptcy) is 0.7.
Risk management as a scientific and professional specialization is a complex area of management, as it is at the intersection of various branches of knowledge and requires the skills to use, apply elements of strategic, financial and investment management, knowledge of the specifics of insurance activities and exchange trading. Modern business is increasingly in need of using specific exchange-based risk management tools - futures contracts: forward, futures, options, used both for insurance and for profit. Most banks and financial organizations today actively use these tools. At present, managers of trade and especially industrial organizations have to master and actively apply risk management methods in practice.
Control questions and tasks
1. Formulate the concept of entrepreneurial risk.
2. What are the types of business risk?
3. What is the financial risk and what are its types?
4. What are the types of losses?
5. What are the methods for determining the level of risk?
6. What are risk zones?
7. How to manage risk?
8. How to quantify risk?
Risk is a key element of entrepreneurship in a market economy. The characteristic features of risk are uncertainty, surprise, uncertainty, the assumption that success will come. In conditions of political and economic instability, the degree of risk increases significantly. In the current crisis conditions, the problem of increasing risks is very relevant.
Risk is the possibility of adverse situations in the course of implementing the plans and executing the budgets of the enterprise.
In entrepreneurial activity, it is important to properly allocate risks between counterparties. The partner in the project who is best able to calculate and control risks should become responsible for the risk. The risk is shared during the development of the project's financial plan and contractual documents.
There are the following main types of risks:
Production risk is associated with the production and sale of products (works, services), the implementation of any types of production activities. This type of risk is most sensitive to changes in the planned volumes of production and sales of products, planned material and labor costs, to changes in prices, marriage, etc.
In modern conditions in Russia, the production risk is high, so production activities have become the most risky.
There are risks in this area:
Failure to comply with business contracts
Changes in market conditions, increased competition,
The occurrence of unforeseen costs,
Loss of company property.
Commercial risk arises in the process of selling goods purchased by the entrepreneur (rendering services). In a commercial transaction, it is necessary to take into account such factors as: an unfavorable change (increase) in the price of purchased means of production; reduction in the price at which products are sold; loss of goods in the process of circulation; increase in distribution costs.
Financial risk may arise in the course of financial business or financial (monetary) transactions. Financial risk, along with factors characteristic of other types of entrepreneurial risk, is also affected by such factors as the insolvency of one of the parties to a financial transaction, restrictions on foreign exchange transactions, etc.
The reason for the investment risk may be the depreciation of the investment and financial portfolio, consisting of own and acquired securities.
Market risk is associated with possible fluctuations in market interest rates, national currency(s) or foreign exchange rates.
Sources of political risk can be a decrease in business activity of people, non-execution of adopted legislative acts, instability of tax rates, violation of payments and mutual settlements, alienation of property or funds.
Losses from risk in entrepreneurial activity are divided into:
Material losses are costs not provided for by the project or direct losses of material objects in kind (buildings, structures, transmission devices, products, materials, raw materials, etc.).
Labor losses - the loss of working time caused by accidental or unforeseen circumstances.
Financial losses arise as a result of direct monetary damage (unforeseen payments, fines, payments for overdue loans, additional taxes, loss of funds or securities).
Losses of time arise if the process of entrepreneurial activity is slower than envisaged by the project.
Special types of losses - losses associated with damage to the health and life of people, the environment, the prestige of the entrepreneur and other adverse social and moral and psychological factors.
The means of resolving entrepreneurial risks are their avoidance, retention, transfer, and reduction of the degree.
Risk avoidance refers to the simple avoidance of risk-related activities. However, avoiding risk for an entrepreneur often means forgoing profit.
Risk retention implies leaving the risk to the investor, i.e. on his responsibility.
The transfer of risk means that the investor transfers the responsibility for the financial risk to someone else, such as an insurance company.
Risk reduction is the reduction of the probability and amount of losses.
When choosing a specific means of resolving financial risk, the investor should proceed from the following principles:
1) you can not risk more than your own capital can afford;
2) one must think about the consequences of the risk;
3) you can not risk a lot for the sake of a little.
The implementation of the first principle means that, before investing, the investor must:
Determine the maximum possible loss for this risk;
Compare it with the amount of invested capital;
Compare it with all your own financial resources and determine whether the loss of this capital will lead to the bankruptcy of the investor.
The implementation of the second principle requires that the investor, knowing the maximum possible loss, determine what it can lead to, what is the probability of the risk, and make a decision to reject the risk (i.e., from the event), to take the risk on his own responsibility or on the transfer of risk to the responsibility of another person.
The operation of the third principle is especially pronounced in the transfer of financial risk. In this case, it means that the investor must determine the ratio between the insurance premium and the sum insured that is acceptable to him. The risk must not be withheld, i.e. the investor should not take the risk if the loss is relatively large compared to the savings in insurance premiums.
To reduce the degree of financial risk, various methods are used:
Diversification is the dispersion of investment risk, i.e. distribution of invested funds among various investment objects that are not directly related to each other.
Limitation is the setting of a limit, i.e. limits on expenses, sales, loans, etc. Limiting is an important means of reducing the degree of risk and is used by banks when issuing loans when concluding an overdraft agreement; by an economic entity - when selling goods on credit, using traveler's checks and eurocheques, etc.; by the investor - when determining the amount of capital investment, etc.
Insurance, the essence of which lies in the fact that the investor is ready to give up part of the income in order to avoid risk, i.e. he is willing to pay to reduce the risk to zero. In the process of insurance, funds are redistributed between the participants in the creation of the insurance fund: compensation for damage to one or several insurers is carried out by distributing losses to all. The number of policyholders who made payments during a given period is greater than the number of those who receive reimbursement.
Securitization is the participation of two banks in a lending operation. A credit transaction is carried out in two stages: 1) development of conditions and conclusion of a credit agreement (transaction); 2) granting a loan to a borrower. The essence of securitization is that these two stages are performed by different banks.
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