Integral assessment of the financial and economic state of the enterprise. Integral assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise Crisis financial condition

06.03.2022

3. Proposals for improving the assessment of the financial condition of Market-Service LLC

To improve the assessment of the financial condition, first of all, it is necessary to draw up an explanatory note to the balance sheet.

In order to improve the assessment of the financial condition, it is recommended to use the methodology of the integral assessment of the financial condition.

1. Among the main areas of assessment stands solvency and financial independence.

2. To assess solvency, the following indicators are used: current liquidity ratio, quick liquidity ratio, absolute liquidity ratio. To assess financial independence, the following indicators are used: autonomy coefficient, financial stability coefficient, coefficient of equity capital maneuverability.

3. Determination for each of the coefficients of the critical (normative) value.

4. Determining the weight of individual coefficients

5. Formation of general indicators: the level of solvency, the level of financial independence (see formulas 24.25):

where, J is an integral indicator,

UP - the level of solvency,

FN - the level of financial independence,

KA - asset quality level,

β1, β2, βЗ are the coefficients of significance of the corresponding indicators.

6. Formation of an integral indicator of the financial condition of the enterprise, taking into account all analytical areas.

Table 22 shows the values of the solvency and financial independence ratios, the ratio of the actual and critical values and the weighting factor.

Table 22. Integral assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise

Estimated direction, indicator	Actual value 2007	Actual value 2008	Actual value 2009	The ratio of actual and critical 2007	The ratio of actual and critical 2008	The ratio of actual and critical 2009	Weight factor
Solvency level

Quick liquidity ratio

Level of financial independence
Autonomy coefficient
Financial stability ratio
Equity maneuverability ratio

Let's calculate the integral indicator for assessing the financial condition for each year (see Table 23).

Table 23. Calculation of the integral indicator

Index
Solvency level actual	0,50,5+0,740,3+0,6*0,2=0,59	0,440,5+0,590,3+0*0,2=0,397	0,3550,5+0,260,3+0*0,2=0,25
Actual level of financial independence	0,020,4+0,480,3+1,36*0,3=0,56	0,160,4+0,120,3+(-2,58)*0,3= -0,674	0,060,4+0,050,3+(-15,82)*0,3= -4,71
The level of financial independence is critical	0,020,4+0,480,3+1*0,3=0,452
Integral indicator actual	0,590,6+0,560,4=0,578	0,3970,6+(-0,674)0,4=-0,03	0,250,6+(-4,71)0,4=-1,734
Integral indicator normative	0,590,6+0,4520,4=0,53

As can be seen from Table 23, the calculated levels of solvency, financial independence and the integral indicator are significantly lower per unit, which indicate the unsatisfactory financial condition of Market-Service LLC, and there is a negative trend, by the end of 2009 the situation worsened significantly. Since all the coefficients that characterize the level of solvency do not reach a critical value, the indicator of the level of solvency was calculated only in the actual form.

An analysis of the coefficients that characterize the level of financial independence indicates that the coefficient of equity capital agility exceeds the critical level. Therefore, for this evaluation direction, both types of generalizing indicator were calculated - actual and standard. Accordingly, both types of integral indicator were calculated.

The advantages of the method include the possibility of supplementing any number of analytical areas and coefficients for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise if there is a need to include them in an integral indicator. The developed methodology can be used to evaluate the implementation of the plan.

At the same time, in the above formulas, the actual values of the indicators (numerator) are compared with the planned ones (denominator).

Consider other methods for assessing the financial condition:

1. Integral scoring of the financial stability of an enterprise (method of L.V. Dontsov and N.A. Nikiforov). The essence of this technique is to determine the degree of risk based on the actual level of financial stability indicators and the rating of these indicators in points. Table 24 presents the calculation results.

Table 24

Index	For the beginning of the year		At the end of the year
Index		Number of points	The actual level of the indicator	Number of points
Absolute liquidity ratio

Current liquidity ratio

Table 25 presents tables of classes according to the criteria.

Table 25

Index	Class boundaries according to criteria
Index

Absolute liquidity ratio	0.5 and above = 20 points	0.4 = 16 points	0.3 = 12 points	0.2 = 8 points	0.1 = 4 points
Critical Appraisal Coefficient	1.5 and above = 18 points	1.4 = 15 points	1.3 = 12 points	1.2–1.1 = 9–6 points	1.0 = 3 points
Current liquidity ratio	2 and above = 16.5 points	1.9–1.7 = 15–12 points	1.6–1.4 = 10.5–7.5 points	1.3–1.1 = 6–3 points	1 = 1.5 points
Financial Independence Ratio	0.6 and above = 17 points	0.59–0.54 = 16.2–12.2 points	0.53–0.43 = 11.4–7.4 points	0.47–0.41 = 6.6–1.8 points	0.4 = 1 point
Coverage ratio with own sources of financing	0.5 and above = 15 points	0.4 = 12 points	0.3 = 9 points	0.2 = 6 points	0.1 = 3 points
The coefficient of financial independence in terms of the formation of reserves and costs

Executed for the purpose information to one indicator of a set of indicators characterizing financial stability. The analysis methods include a different number of indicators (from 6 to 9). There are 6 of them in this technique:

1. Absolute liquidity ratio

2. Critical liquidity ratio

3. Current liquidity ratio

4. Coefficient of autonomy (financial independence)

5. The coefficient of security of current assets with own sources of working capital

6. The coefficient of provision of reserves and costs with own sources of fixed assets

The essence of the technique (see calculations in the table)

§ calculation of the values of indicators included in the methodology;

§ accrual of a certain number of points for reaching certain values;

§ calculation of the total score and assignment of the given enterprise to a certain class.

Characteristics of classes:

1 class. Organizations with absolute financial solvency and stability. Their financial position allows you to be sure of the timely fulfillment of obligations in accordance with the contract.

Grade 2 Organizations with a normal financial condition. Their indicators are close to optimal, but for some, a lag or deviation from the standard is allowed. These are organizations that demonstrate some level of risk in fulfilling financial obligations.

Grade 3 Organizations whose financial condition is estimated as average. They show weakness in financial performance and creditworthiness. In relations with such organizations, the threat of loss of funds is unlikely, but the full fulfillment of obligations is doubtful.

4th grade. Organizations with unstable financial condition. There is a certain financial risk associated with them. These are organizations that can lose all funds, even after taking measures to improve their business.

Grade 5 Organizations with a financial crisis, practically insolvent and financially unstable; high-risk organizations.

6th grade. Extra-curricular: "The dregs of society."

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL STABILITY OF THE ENTERPRISE
No. p / p	Financial condition indicators	Class boundaries according to criteria	Indicators
1 class	Grade 2	3rd grade	4th grade	5th grade	Extracurricular	Last year	Reporting year
	Absolute liquidity ratio	0.5 and above	0,4	0,3	0,2	0,1	<0,1	0,351	0,169
20 points	16 points	12 points	8 points	4 points	0 points

	Critical liquidity ratio	1,5	1,4	1,3	1,2-1,1		<1	1,841	1,289
18 points	15 points	12 points	9-6 points.	3 points	0 points

	Current liquidity ratio	2 and above	1,9-1,7	1,6-1,4	1,3-1,1		<1	3,388	2,223
16.5 points	15-12 points	10,5-7,5	6-3 points	1.5 points	0 points
						16,5	16,5
	Coefficient of autonomy (financial independence)	0.6 and above	0,59-0,54	0,53-0,48	0,47-0,41	0,4	<0,4	0,867	0,813
17 points	12.2 points	11,4-7,4	1.8 points	1 point	0 points

	The coefficient of security of current assets with own sources	0.5 and above	0,4	0,3	0,2	0,1	<0,1	0,682	0,519
15 points	12 points	9 points	6 points	3 points	0 points

	The ratio of reserves and costs to be covered by own sources of OBS	1 and above	0,9	0,8	0,7-0,6	0,5	<0,5	1,495	1,235
13.5 points	11 points	8.5 points	6-3.5 points.	1 point	0 points
						13,5	13,5
	Minimum class break values		85.2 and 66	63.4 and 56.5	41.6 and 28.3			-	-
	Total points

Keywords

FINANCIAL POTENTIAL/ FINANCIAL POTENTIAL / INTEGRAL EVALUATION/INTEGRAL ESTIMATE/ GRAPHIC ANALYSIS/ GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS / OIL AND GAS COMPANIES/ OIL AND GAS COMPANY

annotation scientific article on economics and business, author of scientific work - Aliev A.A., Solovieva M.G., Kachalina A.D.

Subject. A set of theoretical, practical and methodological issues related to determining the financial condition of enterprises, based on the use of a group of relative indicators of companies. Goals. Getting a generalized integral assessment financial capacity companies in the oil and gas industry and the construction of a graphical model for a visual representation of the results of calculations. Methodology. Tools used graphical analysis, the theory of fuzzy sets and the Cartesian coordinate system for calculating general integral indicators characterizing the assessment of the company's financial condition. Results. The results of assigning ranks to each of the indicators are determined by calculating the corresponding weight coefficients based on the Fishburn criterion. Initial and normalized indicators are selected, vector values are formed on the basis of this. Developed integral assessment the financial position of companies and built a graphical model that reflects the position of the assessment. The zones corresponding to the financial condition of the company at a certain point in time are determined. Scope of the results. The methodology will be of interest to top management and investment companies focused on the oil and gas industry for comparative financial analysis of companies. The use of an integral indicator allows us to present generalized estimates. Conclusions. The main indicators for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise were identified by forming an integral indicator, and a graphical modeling of the results obtained, reflecting the financial condition of companies, was carried out.

Integral Estimation of the Company""s Financial Condition

Subject This paper considers the theoretical, practical and methodological issues related to the definition of the financial condition of enterprises, based on the use of a set of relative indicators of companies. Objectives The paper aims to obtain a generalized integral assessment of the financial potential of oil and gas companies and build a graphical model for visual presentation of the results of calculations. Methods For the study, we used tools of graphical analysis , fuzzy set theory and Cartesian coordinate system for calculating common integrated indicators. Results The paper presents a developed technique of integral estimation of the financial position of the companies and a graphic model reflecting the received estimation position. It defines zones that correspond to the company's financial situation at a particular point in time. Relevance The results obtained can be used in financial analysis of companies, as well as in the educational course on financial disciplines. The methodology offered can be of interest to top management and investment companies focused on the oil and gas industry, as well as during the comparative analysis of companies for scientific and educational purposes.

The text of the scientific work on the topic "Integral assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise"

pISSN 2071-4688 Financial capital

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL STATE OF THE ENTERPRISE

Ayaz Aladdin oglu ALIEV3", Maria Gennadievna SOLOVIEVA*, Anastasia Dmitrievna KACHALINAs

a Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Financial Management,

Russian Economic University. G.V. Plekhanov, Moscow, Russian Federation

[email protected]

orcid.org/0000-0003-1476-9702

SPIN: 8015-2460

student, Russian University of Economics. G.V. Plekhanov, Moscow, Russian Federation

[email protected]

ORCID: none

SPIN code: none

c Student, Russian University of Economics. G.V. Plekhanov, Moscow, Russian Federation

[email protected]

ORCID: none

SPIN code: none

Article History: Annotation

Received 01/12/2018 Subject. A set of theoretical, practical and methodological issues,

Obtained in a modified form related to the determination of the financial condition of enterprises, based on the form of 01/26/2018 using a group of relative indicators of companies.

Approved 02/09/2018 Purposes. Obtaining a generalized integral assessment of financial potential

Available online 27.02.2018 oil and gas companies and building a graphical model for visual

presentation of calculation results.

Methodology. The tools of graphical analysis, the theory of fuzzy sets and the Cartesian coordinate system were used to calculate general integral indicators characterizing the assessment of the company's financial condition. Results. The results of assigning ranks to each of the indicators are determined by calculating the corresponding weight coefficients based on the Fishburn criterion. Initial and normalized indicators are selected, vector values are formed on the basis of this. An integral assessment of the financial position of companies has been developed and a graphical model has been built that reflects the position of the obtained assessment. The zones corresponding to the financial condition of the company at a certain point in time are determined.

Scope of the results. The methodology will be of interest to top management and investment companies focused on the oil and gas industry for comparative financial analysis of companies. The use of an integral indicator allows us to present generalized estimates.

Conclusions. The main indicators for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise were identified by forming an integral indicator, and a graphical modeling of the results obtained, reflecting the financial condition of companies, was carried out.

For citation: Aliev A.A., Solovieva M.G., Kachalina A.D. Integral assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise // Finance and credit. - 2018. - V. 24, No. 2. - S. 288 - 303. https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.24.2.288

The financial condition is a complex placement of funds, real and potential concepts and is characterized by a system of financial capabilities of the enterprise and indicators that reflect the availability and effectiveness of their use.

UDC 336.64 JEL: G32, G34

Keywords:

financial potential, integrated assessment, graphical analysis, oil and gas companies

The relevance of the issue largely led to the development of various methods for analyzing the financial condition of enterprises, which are aimed at preparing information for the purpose of making managerial decisions, assessing the financial condition and developing a strategy for managing the financial condition of enterprises.

Based on the analysis of scientific literature on the problem of assessing the financial condition of companies, a system of relative indicators has been formed. This system will allow developing a methodology for an integral assessment of the financial condition on the example of oil and gas companies.

The criteria for assessing the financial condition of companies identified during the critical analysis are based on indicators of financial stability, liquidity and profitability of enterprises (Table 1).

The method of integral assessment of the financial condition of companies involves taking into account the shortcomings of existing approaches and methods of assessment. At the same time, the system is not only based on an industry assessment, but should also take into account the assessment of individual aggregated groups of indicators of the financial and economic condition of enterprises.

In addition, for an integral assessment of the financial condition of companies, three groups of indicators were used: the profitability of the company, financial liquidity and financial stability.

In a number of scientific papers there are comments on the fundamental importance in assessing the financial condition of a company of profitability indicators. To assess the profitability of assets and sources of capital, the following indicators are used:

Return on sales ratio (ROS) - characterizes the amount of profit that falls on a unit of sold products;

Return on assets ratio (return on total capital, total profitability of the enterprise) (ROA) - reflects the results of operations

enterprise, allows you to assess the ability of assets to generate profit, regardless of the sources of raising funds and indicates the level of competitiveness of the company;

The return on equity ratio (financial profitability) (ROE) - shows how efficiently the company uses its own capital or the income it receives on the monetary unit of its own funds.

In his works, E.A. Markaryan, G.P. Gerasimenko, in order to assess the liquidity of the company, three main indicators are used:

Absolute (instantaneous) liquidity ratio - shows that part of the current debt that the company can repay on the balance sheet date at the moment or in the very near future. Standard value - 0.2 - 0.5;

Critical liquidity ratio - characterizes the part of the company's short-term liabilities, which can be repaid not only at the expense of cash and short-term financial investments, but also at the expense of expected receipts for the services rendered. Standard value - 0.7 - 1;

Current liquidity ratio (general coverage ratio) - reflects the current financial condition of the organization and allows you to assess the adequacy of working capital that can be used to pay off its short-term liabilities, that is, to what extent current liabilities are secured by similar assets of the organization. Standard value - 1-2.

The third group of indicators includes indicators of the company's financial stability. In the works of A.O. Nedosekin argues that the following indicators have the greatest weight in the system for assessing the financial condition of an enterprise:

The coefficient of autonomy (financial independence) - characterizes the degree of formation of the assets of the enterprise due to

own funds, reflects the level of independence from external sources of financing activities. Standard value - 0.7;

Investment coverage ratio - shows the share of the company's property, covered by long-term sources of its financing. Standard value - 0.75 - 0.9;

The interest coverage ratio shows the amount of security of interest paid on loans and credits by the received profit. The standard value is greater than 1.

The asset structure of companies in the oil refining industry is focused on non-current assets, as a result of which they have lower liquidity and provide a sufficient level of profitability.

Financial profitability. As mentioned earlier, profitability ratios are of great importance. But the most important is the profitability of sales, as it allows you to correctly interpret the turnover data. Useful for economic forecasts in conditions of limited market size, holding back sales growth.

Based on the calculation of the investment coverage ratio and autonomy, it makes sense to use indicators of return on assets and equity, including to reflect the efficiency of using the assets of these companies and generating revenue, which together implies a higher rank of return on assets.

financial liquidity. To compile the model, three indicators of liquidity are used, which is associated with the need to introduce liquidity restrictions as it decreases, as well as to use an integral assessment in the model with the identification of areas corresponding to different financial conditions of the company at a certain point in time.

Due to the predominance of non-current assets in the balance sheet structure of companies

of the sector under consideration, it makes sense to distribute the ranks of financial liquidity indicators in the order corresponding to the increase in liquidity. Normative values of financial liquidity have a bilateral limitation, which implies their limited use within the framework of a generalized indicator.

In the oil industry, the need for a constant availability of highly liquid assets is not a paramount task, unlike a number of other industries.

Financial stability. In this group, ranks occupy their position for a number of reasons. In oil production activities, large investments are required for the implementation of one project, on the basis of which it is important to take into account the share of funds attributable to interest payments from operating profit.

The next value is the investment coverage ratio, which includes an assessment of liquidity and allows the investor to assess the situation in the company, when own assets have low liquidity, the financing of any investment project will seem risky to the investor and with a high degree of probability he will refuse this project.

The third indicator included in this group is the coefficient of autonomy, as it is the most common. At the same time, the ratio of equity to assets is not sufficiently informative, since companies in the oil refining industry in the balance sheet attach great importance to assets, and it is non-current, which is associated with the presence of a large number of pipelines, oil production and processing equipment. Financial stability gives an assessment of the solvency of the enterprise, but in the case of unprofitable financial activity, this indicator loses its relevance.

Based on the above parameters, the main indicators were distinguished in descending order of their weight in the assessment system, as well as

the allocation of ranks from 1 to 3 within each group of financial indicators, which together characterize the financial condition of enterprises, was carried out. The results of the ranking of indicators are presented in Table. 2.

The proposal to use the method of expert assessment, which consists in highlighting the most and least priority indicators of companies, is due to the lack of a developed mechanism for differentiating indicators based on a scientific basis.

In the absence of a specific quantitative assessment of the significance of indicators, it makes sense to use the tools used in other scientific disciplines, one of which is the ranking of criteria according to the Fishburne rule.

The main provisions state that the only known information about the ratio of the significance of indicators is the following ratio:

r1 > r1 + 1 > r1+2, (1)

where i - coefficient rank or serial number after ranking;

Г - the significance of each criterion or the degree of its manifestation.

This provision makes it possible to reveal the sequence of relations of the indicators under consideration in relation to each other. The quantitative characteristic of the r "th criterion is determined by the following formula:

where N is the total number of ranks.

A necessary condition for the normalization of specific gravity is:

In order to develop a methodology for an integral assessment of the state of companies, it is proposed to

consideration of three groups of indicators. This system, on the one hand, answers the question of what is the current financial potential of the company, on the other hand, it includes the most significant financial indicators of the state of the enterprise, which together makes it possible to ensure the complexity and completeness of the assessment of the financial condition at a certain point in time.

By applying the ratio (1) on the example of the identified indicators, the results of the ranking of the coefficients and their weight values were determined (Table 3).

Based on the obtained values of the specific weights for each of the assigned ranks, the values of the integral indicator1 were calculated for each individual time period in the period 2014-2016. for companies in the oil and gas sector, namely British Petroleum and Rosneft (Table 4).

As a result of the calculations, three indicators were obtained for each company for 2014-2016. (Table 5).

As a result of the calculations, the values of the integral indicator were revealed, taking into account the weights according to the Fishburne method. In order to graphically display the assessment of the financial condition of the company, the Cartesian coordinate system is selected. On the abscissa axis, the data obtained by the integral assessment are plotted; on the y-axis - the estimate obtained without taking into account the weights.

In order to build the model, the values are calculated by groups of indicators without taking into account the specific weight according to the Fishburn method (Table 6).

To determine the areas that characterize the financial condition, it is necessary to evaluate the standard values, taking into account the specific weight and without it. Data for determining areas are given in table. 7 and 8.

Based on the obtained values, areas were formed, at the intersection of which a zone of absolute stability is formed (Fig. 1)

1 Data from the annual financial statements for 2014-2016 British Petroleum. Data from the annual financial statements for 2014-2016 PJSC Rosneft.

As a result of the analysis, four zones were identified that reflect the financial condition of the company. The first zone has an interval along the abscissa axis: , along the ordinate axis: . The following zones were obtained by parallel transfer:

1) green - absolutely stable financial condition;

2) yellow - normal financial condition;

3) gray - zone of uncertainty;

4) red - critical state zone.

Based on the data obtained, a model for an integral assessment of the financial condition of BP and Rosneft companies was built, which is graphically presented in Fig. 2.

According to the results of the assessment of the financial condition of companies for 2014-2016. revealed:

For the Rosneft company, it can be noted that the integral indicator entered the zone of absolute stability in 2014 and 2015. due to high profitability and interest coverage ratios, as well as normal financial stability in 2016;

The integral indicator for British Petroleum in the periods under review falls into three different zones. The most critical state was observed in 2015; according to the results of 2016, the integral indicator is located in the intermediate zone.

Table 1

Systems of indicators for assessing the financial condition of companies

Indicator systems to assess the financial status of companies

Components of the financial assessment system

states

Financial profitability Sales profitability ratio

Return on assets ratio

Return on equity ratio

Financial liquidity Absolute liquidity ratio

Critical liquidity ratio

Current liquidity ratio

Financial stability Autonomy ratio

Investment coverage ratio

Interest coverage ratio

table 2

The system of indicators for assessing the financial condition of oil and gas companies and their rank within each group

The indicator system to assess the financial status of oil and gas companies and their rank within each group

Components of the assessment system Rank Indicators Rank

financial condition

Financial profitability 1 Return on sales ratio 1

Return on assets 2

Profitability ratio of own 3

capital

Financial liquidity 3 Absolute liquidity ratio 3

Critical liquidity ratio 2

Current liquidity ratio 1

Financial stability 2 Autonomy ratio 3

Investment coverage ratio 2

Interest coverage ratio 1

Table 3

Coefficient ranking and weighting results

The results of ranking of ratios and assignment of weights

System of indicators Indicators that make up Rank Specific Rank Specific

assessment of the financial system assessment of the financial as a whole weight by inside weight by

company states company states Fishburne rule (r) groups Fishburne rule (r)

Profitability ROS 1 0.5 1 0.5

Financial Autonomy ratio 2 0.167 3 0.167

sustainability Investment coverage ratio 2 0.333

Interest coverage ratio 1 0.5

Financial Ratio absolute 3 0.333 3 0.167

liquidity liquidity

Critical factor 2 0.333

liquidity

Current liquidity ratio 1 0.5

Source: Authoring

Table 4

Calculation of BP and Rosneft indicators based on the use of specific weight according to the Fishburne rule

Calculation of the BP and Rosneft parameters through specific weights according to Fishburn's rule

Indicator Rank Weight 2014 Intp. 2015 Intp. 2016 Intp.

Rosneft

ROS 1 0.5 0.108 0.05 0.137 0.069 0.133 0.066

ROA2 0.33 0.074 0.03 0.078 0.026 0.065 0.022

ROE 3 0.17 0.116 0.02 0.123 0.02 0.06 0.01

Profitability - - - 0.1 - 0.115 - 0.098

Kal (absolute liquidity) 3 0.17 0.463 0.08 0.851 0.142 0.447 0.074

Kcl (critical liquidity) 2 0.33 0.855 0.28 1.123 0.374 0.668 0.223

Ktl (current liquidity) 1 0.5 1.049 0.53 1.323 0.662 0.829 0.415

Liquidity - - - 0.89 - 1.178 - 0.712

Ka (autonomies) 3 0.17 0.33 0.06 0.309 0.051 0.338 0.056

CPI (investment coverage) 2 0.33 0.768 0.26 0.818 0.273 0.749 0.25

CPP (interest coverage) 1 0.5 6.494 3.25 4.046 2.023 2.791 1.395

Stability - - - 3.56 - 2.347 - 1.701

Profitability 1 0.5 0.098 0.05 0.115 0.058 0.098 0.049

Liquidity 2 0.17 0.887 0.15 1.178 0.196 0.712 0.119

Stability 3 0.33 3.558 1.19 2.347 0.782 1.701 0.567

Total value - - - 1.38 - 1.036 - 0.735

ROS 1 0.5 0.002 0.01 -0.047 -0.023 -0.016 -0.008

ROA 2 0.33 0.003 0.01 -0.038 -0.013 -0.011 -0.004

ROE 3 0.17 0.033 0.01 -0.061 -0.01 0.002 0

Profitability - - - 0.01 - -0.046 - -0.011

Kal (absolute liquidity) 2 0.33 0.554 0.18 0.564 0.188 0.455 0.152

Kcl (critical liquidity) 1 0.5 1.083 0.54 1.021 0.511 0.86 0.43

Ktl (current liquidity) 3 0.17 1.372 0.23 1.28 0.213 1.162 0.194

Liquidity - - - 0.95 - 0.912 - 0.775

Ka (autonomies) 3 0.17 0.396 0.07 0.376 0.063 0.368 0.061

CPI (investment coverage) 2 0.33 0.776 0.26 0.791 0.264 0.778 0.259

CPP (interest coverage) 1 0.5 2.301 1.15 -4.78 -2.39 -0.509 -0.254

Stability - - - 1.48 - -2.064 - 0.066

Profitability 1 0.5 0.008 0.01 -0.046 -0.023 -0.011 -0.006

Liquidity 3 0.17 0.955 0.16 0.912 0.152 0.775 0.129

Stability 2 0.33 1.475 0.49 -2.064 -0.688 0.066 0.022

Total value - - - 0.65 - -0.559 - 0.146

Keywords

FINANCIAL MODELING / INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL STATE / FINANCIAL INDICATORS/ PROFITABILITY / SOLVENCY/ LIQUIDITY / FINANCIAL STABILITY / COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE OF ASSETS AND CAPITAL / EFFICIENCY OF ENTERPRISE MANAGEMENT / FORECASTING / MODELING OF FINANCIAL POSITION / INTEGRAL EVALUATION OF THE FINANCIAL POSITION/ FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE / PROFITABILITY / PAYING CAPACITY / LIQUIDITY / FINANCIAL STABILITY / COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE OF ASSETS AND CAPITAL / EFFICIENCY OF ENTERPRISE MANAGEMENT/ FORECASTING

annotation scientific article on economics and business, author of scientific work - Sergey Panteleevich Kyurdzhiev, Alexandra Alexandrovna Mambetova, Elena Petrovna Peshkova

The subject of the article is the development of theoretical provisions and methodological approaches to integral assessment of the financial condition metallurgical enterprises of the region. The purpose of the work is to show the possibility of decomposing the integral estimate into separate elements in order to use this tool to build individual models based on forecasting various coordinates of the financial condition of the enterprise. The research hypothesis is based on the objective need to improve enterprises, which involves the modernization of existing theoretical and methodological approaches to improving the quality of analysis by eliminating certain shortcomings of discriminant models in order to fundamentally refine the algorithm for constructing an integral indicator. The methodological foundations of a systematic approach and economic and mathematical modeling are applied: methods of financial analysis, grouping, abstraction, comparison, making it possible to determine financial indicators, which are necessary for building predictive models of financial condition; methods of correlation and regression analysis, allowing to improve the integral indicator and build mathematical models forecasting. In order to improve integral assessment of the financial condition the enterprise used its geometric interpretation, which provides for the division of the integral indicator into separate elements. A feature of the proposed methodological approach is the implementation of certain procedures for assessing the financial condition and summarizing the results of the analysis. The proposed approach can be used by financial analysts to develop strategic plans for the development of an enterprise and optimize the structure of financial resources. This study allows you to determine the quantitative impact of individual parameters on the overall assessment of the financial condition in order to forecasting, understood as a system of scientifically based probabilistic assumptions about the basic and alternative structural changes in the assets and liabilities of the enterprise.

The text of the scientific work on the topic "Integral assessment of the financial condition of enterprises in the region"

For citation: Economics of the region. - 2016. - Vol. 12, no. 2. - S. 586-601 doi 10.17059/2016-2-22 UDC 338.1

S. P. Kurdzhiev a), A. A. Mambetova b), E. P. Peshkova a)

a) South Russian Institute of Management - branch of the RANEPA (Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation; e-mail: [email protected]) b) Rostov State University of Economics (Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation)

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL STATE OF ENTERPRISES IN REGION 1

The subject of the article is the development of theoretical provisions and methodological approaches to the integral assessment of the financial condition of metallurgical enterprises in the region.

The purpose of the work is to show the possibility of decomposing an integral assessment into separate elements in order to use this tool to build individual models based on predicting various coordinates of the financial condition of an enterprise.

The research hypothesis is based on the objective need to improve the integral assessment of the financial condition of enterprises, which involves the modernization of existing theoretical and methodological approaches to improving the quality of analysis by eliminating certain shortcomings of discriminant models in order to fundamentally refine the algorithm for constructing an integral indicator.

The methodological foundations of a systematic approach and economic and mathematical modeling are applied: methods of financial analysis, grouping, abstraction, comparison, which make it possible to determine the financial indicators that are necessary to build predictive models of the financial condition; methods of correlation and regression analysis, which allows to improve the integral indicator and build mathematical forecasting models.

In order to improve the integral assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise, its geometric interpretation was used, which provides for the division of the integral indicator into separate elements. A feature of the proposed methodological approach is the implementation of certain procedures for assessing the financial condition and summarizing the results of the analysis.

The proposed approach can be used by financial analysts to develop strategic plans for the development of an enterprise and optimize the structure of financial resources.

This study allows us to determine the quantitative impact of individual parameters on the overall assessment of the financial condition in order to predict it, understood as a system of scientifically based probabilistic assumptions about the basic and alternative structural changes in the assets and liabilities of the enterprise.

Key words: modeling of the financial condition, integral assessment of the financial condition, financial indicators, profitability, solvency, liquidity, financial stability, composition and structure of assets and capital, enterprise management efficiency, forecasting

Introduction

The overall assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise depends on a variety of indicators that need to be studied in conjunction. Consequently, there is a need to aggregate all the attributes of the set (financial indicators), due to the fact that the modeling object (financial condition) requires not only general characteristics, but also the ordering of individual

1 © S. P. Kurdzhiev, A. A. Mambetova, and E. P. Peshkova, Text. 2016.

its elements according to certain properties and principles. It is possible to implement this mechanism with the help of an integral assessment, which is based on the parameters obtained as a result of the analysis of the main components of the financial condition of a business entity (profitability, solvency, liquidity, financial stability, enterprise management efficiency). Based on an integral assessment of the financial condition of an organization, it is possible to comprehensively assess its financial and economic activities, identify shortcomings in work and suggest directions

development. In addition, the integral assessment is the basis for predicting the financial condition of an economic entity, since the adequacy of the forecast data depends on the reliability of the input information.

The metallurgical industry is one of the leading industries in the Rostov region, on the territory of which more than 30 large ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy enterprises operate. More than 30,325 thousand people are employed in the industry. able-bodied population of the region, and concentrated about 13% of all fixed assets of the industry, with a high degree of depreciation. The long-term development of the industry depends on the speed of equipment modernization, the introduction of innovations and the improvement of financial management methods.

Thus, a number of metallurgical enterprises of the Rostov region were chosen as the object of study.

Integral indicator of the financial condition of the enterprise

The role of an objective assessment of the financial condition of an enterprise as the basis for its sustainable development is growing significantly in today's economic conditions. Financial

the state reflects the efficiency of the economic activity of a business entity, and its analysis allows timely optimization of the use of financial resources and objectively determines the priority areas for the development of the enterprise, formulates strategic plans and monitors their implementation.

Thus, an objective analysis of the financial condition determines the construction of adequate forecasting models, and a reliable assessment is the basis for the development of an enterprise.

A comparative analysis of the considered traditional methods revealed certain advantages and disadvantages of various methodological approaches, which, in turn, complicate their application for predicting the financial condition of an enterprise. Therefore, we improved (from the point of view of the procedural side) the methodology for analyzing the financial condition of an economic entity, which in a generalized form consists of interrelated blocks (Fig. 1).

The first block is the study of structural changes in the assets and capital of the enterprise, that is, carrying out vertical and horizontal

Structural analysis of assets and capital

Block 2 Analysis of financial stability

Block 3 Analysis of liquidity and solvency

5 block Integral assessment of the financial condition

Block 4 Analysis of the efficiency of capital use

Rice. 1. Structural and logical diagram of the analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise for the purposes of forecasting

analysis of the indicators of the aggregated balance, their assessment in dynamics.

The second block is an analysis of financial stability based on relative indicators, such as independence ratios, the ratio of equity and borrowed funds, long-term borrowing, equity flexibility, provision of current assets with equity, concentration of borrowed capital and debt coverage.

The third block is based on the analysis of the liquidity and solvency of the enterprise, which provides for the calculation of a number of relative indicators: the overall liquidity ratio, the absolute liquidity ratio, the intermediate coverage ratio, the current coverage ratio and the current liquidity ratio.

The fourth block includes the study of relative indicators of the efficiency of capital use: indicators of profitability of products, investments, current assets and capital.

The fifth block is general, it involves the definition of an integral indicator of financial condition. The basis is the combination of a number of basic indicators characterizing the components of the financial condition.

The peculiarity of the proposed approach is the sequence of carrying out certain procedures for assessing the financial condition and the mechanism for summarizing the results of the analysis.

Thus, the developed methodology at the first stage provides for an assessment of the composition of the assets and liabilities of the enterprise, their structural elements (current and non-current assets, equity and borrowed capital). At the same time, such an assessment involves both vertical and horizontal analysis of the balance sheet and its main sections. The expediency of this step is due to the fact that the quality of liabilities and assets has a direct impact on the main subsystems of the financial condition, in particular on financial stability, liquidity and solvency.

In addition to the above, a feature of a reasonable approach is the mechanism for summarizing the results of financial analysis. Thus, the authors propose to include in the integral assessment not only relative indicators reflecting financial stability, liquidity, solvency and efficiency

the activity of using capital, but also relative indicators characterizing the composition and structure of the assets and capital of the enterprise. It should be noted that the approach does not require the user to have specific information, for example, primary production or management accounting data.

Analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise, according to the developed methodology, is the first stage in determining the prospects for its changes. The need for analysis is due to the fact that its results are the information base for determining the forecast financial condition of the enterprise.

The main purpose of this analysis is to study the possibility of using heterogeneous financial indicators to predict the financial condition. The achievement of the stated goal is facilitated by the grouping of metallurgical enterprises of the Rostov region (using the methods of strategic analysis) according to the level of individual indicators and the study of the dynamics of changes in the share of individual groups of economic entities. This grouping made it possible to calculate the ranges of changes in indicators and the dynamics of the frequency of their variation, as well as to determine the stability of the change and draw conclusions regarding the advisability of including the latter in financial condition forecasting models. The analysis of the studied metallurgical enterprises led to the following conclusion: to predict the financial condition, it is advisable to use indicators characterizing the vertical structure of the assets and liabilities of the enterprise, as well as the efficiency of capital use.

In general, the proposed approach can be the basis for forecasting the financial condition, since this system of indicators most fully reflects all the financial aspects of the functioning of an economic entity and their dynamics, makes it possible to show general trends that in the long term affect the performance of the organization.

The economic content of the integrated assessment is to combine individual financial indicators according to a certain procedure and principles into a single quantitative indicator. The use of this approach will allow us to determine generalizing estimates of various business entities,

Enterprise 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Value (7) Class Value (7) Class Value (7) Class Value (7) Class Value (7) Class

METCOM LLC 16.61 A 249.27 A -20.24 D 28.74 A 14.37 A

Aloid LLC 3.18 A 4.07 A 5.29 A 3.45 A 5.93 A

Trubstalkomplekt LLC 1.74 A 2.67 A 4.73 A 7.98 A 5.26 A

ST LLC -0.10 B 1.18 B 3.64 A 4.18 A 4.01 A

YugmetalStroy LLC 2.33 A 2.26 A 3.40 A 4.09 A 3.99 A

Grand Resource LLC 1.81 A 2.80 A 0.46 B 2.99 A 2.60 A

ZAO Derkul 3.21 A 9.75 A 39.07 A 5.72 A 2.46 A

LLC Atlantis 3.86 A 4.42 A 7.91 A 4.51 A 2.04 A

OOO TransMet 0.31 V -0.01 V 0.02 B 0.34 B 0.13 V

ASTM-Standard LLC 2.85 A 4.50 A -121.25 D -2.12 D 0.00 B

OOO SVmetall -1.35 G -1.46 G -1.13 V -2.92 D -3.34 D

OOO Sevazh -2.13 D -2.21 D -2.16 D -4.85 D -6.39 D

Alta LLC -4.44 D -11.14 D 6.99 A -31.6 D -8.84 D

OOO OptMetall-Service 20.08 A -298.2 D -940.80 D -30.1 D -8.86 D

OOO Metallotorg 42.74 A -10.73 D -2.78 D -3.60 D -78.88 D

to compare them in terms of the effectiveness of financing and forecasting activities. It should be noted that the integral assessment is also an effective mechanism for comparing the financial and economic activities of individual enterprises.

The universality and complexity of the integral indicator makes it possible to use it in forecasting the financial activity of an enterprise, that is, the predicted financial condition will be determined by the level of the predicted integral indicator.

For the purpose of financial forecasting of the activities of an enterprise, foreign economists suggest using various methods: coefficient, expert estimates, etc.

In domestic scientific practice, much attention is paid to the study of the integral indicator of financial condition in the works of O. O. Tereshchenko. These models are built on the basis of discriminant analysis methods and empirical data from enterprises of various types of activities.

The high level of objectivity and validity of discriminant models allows us to conclude that it is reasonable to use them to predict the financial condition of domestic enterprises. That is, these models can be used as the basis for the development of financial forecasting models.

owl activity. That is why they are used for initial calculations.

The object of the study is a number of metallurgical enterprises of the Rostov region. For calculations, we use the following model:

r \u003d 0.674X1 + 1.633X2 + 0.488X3 + 0.223X4 + + 1.138X5 + 0.55X6 + 0.528X10 - 2.752, (1)

where Х1 - current assets/current liabilities; X2 - equity / balance sheet total; X3 - net proceeds from sales / balance sheet total; X4 - net cash flow from operating activities / net sales proceeds + other operating income; X5 - cash flow from operating and investment activities / balance sheet currency; X6 - net proceeds from sales / net borrowed capital; X10 - net proceeds from sales / average balances of current assets.

On the basis of discriminant models, an integral indicator (£) was calculated, the quality of the financial condition of the studied metallurgical enterprises was established and their assignment to a certain class 1 (Table 1).

1 On approval of the “Guidelines for the analysis of the financial condition of organizations. Order of the FSFR of the Russian Federation of January 23, 2001 No. 16 [Electronic resource]. Access from the reference-legal system "ConsultantPlus".

Based on the ranking of the points of the integral assessment, a group of leading enterprises was identified, the value of the indicator of the integral assessment of which by the end of 2015 was in the zone of stable financial condition and had a relatively stable trend throughout the study period. Such enterprises include METKOM LLC, Aloid LLC, Trubstalkomplekt LLC, ST LLC, YugmetalStroy LLC, Grand Resource LLC, Derkul LLC, Atlantis LLC. The second group includes enterprises whose financial condition was unstable, the value of the integral indicator fluctuated, while they entered the zone of uncertainty, both with positive and negative dynamics: TransMet LLC, ASTM-Standard LLC, SVmetal LLC ”, OOO Sevazh, OOO Alta, OOO OptMetall-Service, OOO Metalotorg.

The results of the integrated assessment indicate the possibility of using this approach to predict the financial condition, since for most of the enterprises under study, the results of the analysis obtained using the integral assessment and for individual financial indicators do not contradict each other. In addition, the integral indicator allows you to combine individual financial parameters with multidirectional dynamics. Despite certain advantages, the considered algorithm for the integral assessment of the financial condition of economic entities has some disadvantages:

1) ignoring the additive value of the integral assessment in terms of individual components of the financial condition of the enterprise, that is, the impossibility of determining the impact of the level of liquidity, financial stability and efficiency of capital use on the overall assessment of financial activity. Eliminating this gap will allow us to study the financial condition in certain areas, identify factors that negatively affect the overall level of the integral indicator, and develop measures to eliminate them;

2) limited use with a negative value of net borrowed capital. In this case, the financial condition is assessed as unsatisfactory, which is associated with the negative value of the loan capital turnover ratio, which further reduces the value of the integral indicator;

3) a high level of generalization and a low degree of detail of the overall assessment of the financial condition;

4) the presence of a zone of uncertainty with a large range of changes in the value of the integral indicator, which complicates the assessment of the financial condition. That is, when obtaining the value of the integral indicator, which is included in the zone of uncertainty, the analyst needs to conduct a more detailed analysis of the financial activities of the enterprise. But this can be avoided by taking the opportunity to explore the individual components of the integral assessment.

It is advisable to eliminate these problems on the basis of a geometric interpretation of the integral assessment of the financial condition. This approach considers the integral estimate as a point in a multidimensional space, that is, the integral estimate is a point X with coordinates (x^ x2; x3; ...; xm). Based on the theory of additive value, it can be argued that the integral assessment of the financial condition is formed on the basis of financial stability, liquidity and solvency, and the efficiency of capital use.

Since the indicators characterizing the financial condition have a different impact, it is recommended to use the weighted arithmetic mean formula to build an integral indicator, that is, each indicator has a certain level of significance:

where m is the number of financial indicators of the integrated assessment; 5, - standardized value of the financial indicator; a, - weight (significance) of the financial ratio.

Thus, the construction of an integral indicator of the financial condition of a business entity, according to the proposed approach, involves the following steps: 1) the formation of a certain set, in this case, it is the selection of indicators (factors) characterizing the financial condition of the enterprise; 2) substantiation of the significance of financial ratios and determination of their impact on the level of integral assessment; 3) determination of the procedure for standardization of indicators.

The economic meaning of the integral assessment lies in a comprehensive study of the financial condition of the enterprise, ha-

characterized by many different indicators, the analysis of each of which separately does not allow us to assess the overall financial situation. In this regard, it is very important to use an aggregated indicator.

Improving the integral assessment of the financial condition of metallurgical enterprises of the Rostov region

Based on the proposed approach and the previously defined integral indicator, it is proposed to improve the existing mechanism for the integral assessment of the financial condition of an economic entity.

The fundamental moment of building an integral assessment should be the selection of financial indicators included in its composition. Based on the analysis carried out by the authors, it is advisable to consider as input data a system of financial indicators that characterize various aspects of the financial condition of an enterprise: profitability of investments in terms of net profit; profitability of current assets (72); return on fixed capital (£3); profitability of investments (capital) (74); return on equity (75); return on assets in terms of cash flows (76); overall profitability of products (77); profitability of implementation (78); return on sales in terms of net profit (79); return on sales in terms of cash flows (210); turnover of working capital (2I); turnover of tangible assets (212); equity turnover (213); accounts payable turnover (214); receivables turnover (215); absolute liquidity (U1); general liquidity (U2); coverage of liabilities with receivables (U3); current liquidity (U4); security with own working capital (X1); the ratio of own and borrowed funds (X2); financial independence (X3); long-term borrowing (X4); maneuverability of own funds (X5); concentration of borrowed capital (X6); covering the debt with cash flow (X7).

The resulting indicator of the assessment of the financial condition is its integral value (I).

The above factors reflect various aspects of the financial condition of an economic entity, while for some of them it is possible to assess the financial component as a whole, while others act as additional

additional features. In addition, as a result of the analysis of individual financial ratios, certain contradictions and inconsistencies arise, complicating the determination of an adequate and specific assessment of the financial condition of an enterprise.

With this in mind, the density of communication and interdependence between individual coefficients is determined, which makes it possible to avoid the inadequate influence of these indicators on complex conclusions regarding the financial condition of a business entity. The density of the connection between individual indicators and their influence on the integral assessment of the financial condition should be investigated using the methods of correlation analysis, which involves the calculation of the coefficients of selective and paired correlations. The maximum value of the correlation coefficient indicates the density of the connection between financial indicators.

The parameters characterizing the financial condition of an enterprise are in a certain relationship, and this is a prerequisite for the emergence of a hypothesis about the presence of multicollinearity, the essence of which lies in the high interdependence between financial indicators, which negatively affects the objectivity of a comprehensive assessment of financial activity, since a slight change in any of them can have significant impact on the value of the integral assessment.

This fact necessitates finding indicators that are closely related to each other, since neglecting this in the future may adversely affect the adequacy of predictive models.

Indicators with a high correlation coefficient (greater than 0.8) should be excluded from the study. At the same time, the decision which indicator to keep and which one to eliminate will be influenced by the value of the correlation coefficient with the dependent indicator of the integral assessment .

Parameters that are closely correlated with each other can be eliminated by defining pair correlation indicators. This approach provides for the construction of a correlation matrix, which reflects both sample and paired correlation coefficients (Table 2).

Based on the calculations performed, indicators were identified that inadequately affect the integral assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise due to the effect of multicollinearity.

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arity, to eliminate the negative impact of which it is necessary to eliminate: Z1,

Z4, Z5, Z6, Z11, Z14, ^2, ^3, X1, X2, X6"

The exclusion of these indicators will allow, by eliminating multicollinearity, to increase the objectivity of the influence of individual of them on the integral indicator of the financial condition of the enterprise.

The next step in improving the integral assessment is to determine the impact of each of the financial indicators remaining after elimination. The need for this is due to the fact that individual financial parameters affect the overall assessment of performance in different ways.

To determine the level of influence of each indicator on the integral assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise, we use the significance of the correlation coefficient:

Table 3

Estimated and tabular significance of the ^Student distribution for the sample set of the enterprises under study*

Influence level

Display - g 1 g g 1 - a; p - 2 yaniya on in-

tel g integral estimate

0.20 1.783296 0.85 significant

0.01 0.065159 0.85 insignificant

0.18 1.534401 0.85 significant

0.01 0.064849 0.85 insignificant

^10 -0.02 0.132333 0.85 insignificant

^12 -0.13 1.09404 0.85 significant

^15 -0.31 2.753947 0.85 essential

0.37 3.401118 0.85 essential

P -0.17 1.431922 0.85 significant

X3 -0.11 0.967139 0.85 significant

X4 0.01 0.044345 0.85 insignificant

X5 0.01 0.118051 0.85 insignificant

X7 -0.02 0.164526 0.85 insignificant

where t1 - a. n - 2 - tabular value of the Student's ^-criterion, defined at level a, with n - 2 degrees of freedom and the Student's ^-distribution indicator:

where r is the value of the correlation coefficient; n is the number of observations (with n - 2 degrees of freedom and significance level a = 0.4).

The choice of these parameters of the ^ distribution is due to the sufficient level of their adequacy for building financial models. The degree of influence of financial indicators determines the need for their inclusion in the integral assessment (Table 3).

Table data analysis. 3 allows you to identify factors that do not significantly affect the integral assessment of the financial condition, in particular, these are the coefficients Z7, Z9, Z10, X4, X5, X7. Therefore, it is advisable to exclude these indicators from the system that determines the integral assessment.

Thus, an integral assessment of the financial condition of metallurgical enterprises should include the following indicators:

1) profitability of products sold and current assets;

2) turnover of tangible assets and receivables;

3) absolute, current liquidity and financial independence.

The relationship of the integral indicator with individual indicators characterizing financial activity reflects the correlation indicator, which makes it possible to determine the level and direction of the indicators' influence on the integral assessment of the financial condition.

It is advisable to determine the significance of each indicator based on the range of changes in the actual level of the sample correlation coefficient, which reflects the density of the relationship between the integral assessment and the corresponding parameters. The choice of the change interval was based on the following principles:

1) if the indicator does not affect the financial condition, its weight, respectively, is equal to zero;

2) the greatest significance of the indicator was calculated based on the logic of constructing an integral assessment, in which the total amount should not exceed 100, and since the selected number of indicators is 7, then, accordingly, the maximum influence of the indicator is 14 (100/7);

3) for a more accurate reflection of the connection density, it is proposed to use the significance change lag at level 1 (Table 4).

As it was determined, the financial condition of the enterprise is characterized by indicators of financial stability, liquidity, solvency and efficiency

Table 4

Determining the weight of financial indicators based on the correlation coefficient*

Absolute interval of change of the correlation indicator The value of the weight (weight) of the financial indicator in the integral assessment

0.356 and more 14

Indicator Weight and. d Standard value a.

Return on current assets 8 0.175

Profitability of sold products 7 0.128

Turnover ratio of tangible assets 5 12.836

Accounts receivable turnover ratio 12 7.617

Absolute liquidity ratio 14 0.189

Current liquidity ratio 7 1.648

Financial stability, X

Financial independence ratio 4 0.639

ical indicators on the average value of the corresponding financial parameters of those enterprises, the dynamics of which tends to improve.

That is, the standard value is proposed to be calculated as follows:

where x. - the actual value of the financial indicator; a( - the average value of the financial indicator of the enterprises under study.

Thus, the integral indicator of financial condition (2), based on a certain standardization mechanism (5), will be calculated as follows:

Table 5

Indicators and their significance in the integrated assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise*

use of capital, and the integral assessment is a summary characteristic of their standardized values.

Standardization of the values of financial indicators should reflect the optimal formation and allocation of financial resources for the enterprises under study.

In this regard, this procedure is proposed to be carried out by dividing the actual

where x. - the actual value of the financial indicator; a( - the average value of the financial indicator; - the weight (significance) of the financial ratio.

Carrying out all stages of building an integral assessment allowed the authors to identify a system of financial indicators, determine their standardized value and influence (through significance) on the overall assessment of the financial condition (Table 5).

The analysis of the results obtained allows us to conclude that the level of the integral indicator in particular and the assessment of the financial condition in general are most influenced by the turnover of receivables and the level of absolute liquidity.

The resulting model allows you to determine which components of the integral assessment of the financial condition - the efficiency of capital use, solvency and liquidity or financial stability - tend to deteriorate, and timely develop measures to prevent negative dynamics.

The advantage of this model is a clear identification of the component that negatively affects the overall assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise.

Detailing the types of financial condition of the enterprise

The issue of expediency of referring an enterprise to a certain class remains relevant, that is, assigning a certain value of a letter (A, B, C, etc.) depending on the value of the integral indicator. On our

Table 6

Integral indicator of the financial condition of the investigated metallurgical enterprises of the Rostov region*

Company/ years 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Z Y X I Z G X I Z G X I Z G X I Z G X I

METCOM LLC 26.38 7.10 3.99 37.47 25.19 8.68 4.22 38.09 31.25 11.57 4.19 47.01 21.63 7.22 4.00 32 .84 20.73 5.25 3.11 29.10

Aloid LLC 6.56 3.94 2.91 13.41 -75.57 3.77 1.42 -70.38 20.92 6.34 1.90 29.16 13.40 6.24 1, 63 21.28 24.76 6.76 2.17 33.69

OOO Trubstal-Komplekt 27.69 2.85 2.98 33.52 16.02 3.45 2.87 22.35 18.84 3.88 2.63 25.34 27.16 4.88 3, 57 35.61 32.43 5.55 3.48 41.47

OOO ST 3.39 1.44 -1.34 3.49 3.42 1.02 -2.06 2.37 35.87 1.50 -1.79 35.58 56.27 1.85 - 1.24 56.88 23.82 3.50 0.67 28.00

OOO Yugmetal-Stroy 11.26 21.39 1.95 34.59 12.22 6.80 1.34 20.36 4.23 7.05 1.07 12.36 10.85 8.61 2, 06 21.53 13.18 7.93 1.89 23.00

Grand Resource LLC 3.82 3.25 1.51 8.58 9.21 5.95 1.69 16.85 4.11 3.05 0.29 7.45 7.79 6.36 2.09 16.25 17.39 4.08 1.38 22.85

ZAO Derkul 20.35 5.40 3.25 28.99 28.47 22.07 3.28 53.81 30.50 29.91 3.51 63.92 22.93 12.08 3.23 38 .25 18.47 14.26 2.43 35.16

OOO Atlantis 14.07 2.42 2.25 18.73 28.57 2.77 1.90 33.24 46.56 4.10 1.89 52.55 39.99 6.60 1.78 48 .37 30.81 5.45 2.28 38.53

OOO TransMet 8.85 3.73 1.11 13.69 9.16 3.66 0.70 13.52 -9.03 2.98 -0.03 -6.09 8.73 3.49 - 0.18 12.04 10.29 3.50 0.70 14.49

ASTM-Standard LLC 12.16 5.37 1.95 19.47 26.98 8.49 2.52 37.99 29.52 8.94 2.93 41.39 18.38 11.27 4, 17 33.82 17.05 15.28 4.48 36.81

OOO SVmetall 22.93 0.91 -1.90 21.95 -17.33 0.74 -2.14 -18.73 -8.33 0.56 -3.06 -10.84 -5, 19 0.87 -5.69 -10.00 -24.85 0.62 -10.22 -34.45

OOO Sevazh -49.43 1.04 -4.03 -52.42 -59.10 0.84 -6.04 -64.30 -25.02 1.47 -7.53 -31.07 - 35.26 0.58 -13.92 -48.60 -10.74 0.59 -14.32 -24.47

OOO Alta 15.10 9.55 4.88 29.53 25.69 10.92 4.63 41.24 34.85 15.92 3.53 54.30 37.31 56.06 4.21 97 .58 31.43 54.86 4.34 90.63

OOO Optmetall-Service 46.20 33.70 4.90 84.79 73.21 67.04 5.13 145.38 74.74 54.79 5.15 134.67 67.30 58.91 5, 44 131.65 58.90 92.91 5.32 157.14

OOO Metallotorg 35.57 9.53 5.05 50.15 54.61 21.75 5.38 81.74 67.89 71.46 5.43 144.77 49.44 67.52 5.41 122 .37 31.77 22.75 4.44 58.96

Table 7

Classification of types of financial condition depending on the value of the integral indicator*

The value of the integral indicator Financial condition Generalizing characteristic of the financial condition

Less than 0 Unsatisfactory Characterized by unprofitable activities, low liquidity, dependence on external sources of financing and lack of working capital

0 -30 Unstable Poor capital efficiency, inherently unstable capital structure and low liquidity

31-61 Satisfactory Average level of profitability and turnover of assets with an insufficient level of solvency or financial stability

61 and more Stable Indicators characterizing the financial condition, which are at the optimal level

It seems that such a methodological approach is limited, since it provides for a generalized assessment of the financial condition based on the value of the integral indicator and does not consider the dynamics of changes in its main components. This may lead to an inadequate conclusion regarding the reasons for the change in the financial condition of the enterprise. Therefore, the authors propose to detail the types of financial conditions of the enterprise by analyzing the main components of the integral assessment. To determine the type of financial condition, it is advisable to use the calculated value of the components of the integral assessment Z, X, Y (Table 6).

The grouping of enterprises according to the levels of indicators characterizing individual elements of the financial condition made it possible to determine the types of financial condition determined by the quality and level of efficiency in the use of capital, financial stability, liquidity and solvency.

Based on the possible range of changes and standard values of financial indicators, the following types of the financial condition of the enterprise are schematically defined (Fig. 2).

The proposed approach involves the assignment of the enterprise to a certain group, depending on the value of integral indicators characterizing financial stability, efficiency of capital use, liquidity and solvency. The advantage of this approach is the definition of the financial condition on the basis of its components that characterize certain aspects of the financial condition, that is, this approach has a large degree of devaluation.

talization, which positively affects the adequacy and reliability of the general conclusion about the financial condition of an economic entity.

If necessary, conclusions about the financial condition of the enterprise, you can use the value of the integral indicator - I, which allows you to objectively conduct a comprehensive assessment of the financial condition, since it is a consolidating mechanism of financial indicators.

On the basis of certain types of financial condition and the level of their integral assessment, the types of financial condition of an economic entity are determined, which determine its characteristics (Table 7).

It should be noted that the choice of detailing the linguistic definition of the type or type of financial condition depends on the goals of analysis and forecasting.

It is advisable to give an assessment both on the basis of individual components of the financial condition, and on the basis of an integral indicator, since these linguistic characteristics complement each other.

Thus, the integral indicator of financial condition is calculated in stages:

1. Calculation of financial indicators characterizing the financial condition of the enterprise (the list of indicators is given in Table 5).

2. Determination by formula (5) of standardized indicators of financial condition.

3. Determination of the coordinates of the financial condition of the enterprise according to the formulas:

Zone of efficient use of capital Type 12 Profitable enterprises with a high level of liquidity, but lack of internal sources of financing; leads to loss of financial independence Zone of the optimal level of liquidity and solvency Type 15 Profitable enterprises with poor financial stability, which is largely due to a significant amount of borrowed capital Type 18 Successful enterprises with a high level of capital use efficiency, an optimal structure for financing current activities and high level of liquidity and solvency

1>0 X<0 У>20 1>0 0<Х<3 У>20 1>0 X>3 Y>20

Type 11 Enterprises that use capital efficiently, but a disproportion in the structure of assets and / or capital leads to a loss of financial independence Zone of insufficient liquidity and solvency Type 14 Profitable enterprises that depend on external sources of financing, with a low level of liquidity and solvency 17th type Enterprises that use capital efficiently and have a sufficient level of financial stability, but do not pay enough attention to the level of solvency and liquidity of the enterprise

1>0 X<0 10<У<20 1>0 0<Х<3 10<У<20 1>0 Х>3 10<У<20

10th type Profitable enterprises that have the opportunity to receive loans, but this leads to dependence on external sources of financing. At the same time, the level of solvency of these enterprises is outside the recommended level Zone of unsatisfactory level of liquidity and solvency Type 13 Enterprises with a sufficient level of efficiency in the use of capital and an insufficient level of solvency and financial stability. Type 16 Stability of the financial condition is ensured by the efficient use of capital and its optimal structure, while there is a lack of the most liquid funds to ensure a sufficient level of liquidity

1>0 X<0 У <10 1>0 0<Х<3 У <10 1>0 X>3 Y<10

Zone of negative financial stability Zone of unsatisfactory financial stability Zone of stable financial stability

Zone of inefficient use of capital Type 1 Financial condition can be characterized as close to bankruptcy. This type is characterized by unprofitable activity, low asset turnover and lack of own funds to finance the current activities of the enterprise Zone of unsatisfactory level of liquidity and solvency 4th type This type is characterized by a low level of liquidity and financial stability due to inefficient use of capital of an industrial enterprise 7th type enterprises, but at the expense of their own and equivalent sources, it is possible to ensure the stability of financial stability

1<0 Х<0 У <10 1<0 0<Х<3 У <10 1<0 Х>3 U<10

2nd type Stability of this type depends on external sources of financing. This type is characterized by a low level of efficiency in the use of capital, liquidity and solvency Zone of insufficient level of liquidity and solvency 5th type Unprofitable activity and a significant amount of current liabilities leads to loss of financial stability and solvency of the enterprise 8th type This type is characterized by an insufficient level of solvency and unprofitability , but a sufficient amount of own resources allows for a high level of financial stability

1<0 Х<0 10<У<20 1<0 0<Х<3 10<У<20 1<0 Х>3 10<У<20

Type 3 Enterprises that use capital inefficiently, but due to the synchronization of receivables and payables, they manage to achieve a high level of solvency with a suboptimal financing structure Zone of the optimal level of liquidity and solvency Type 6 Enterprises whose liquidity level is at the normative level, but Inefficient use of capital leads to loss of financial independence

1<0 Х<0 У>20 1<0 0<Х<3 У>20 1<0 Х>3 Y>20

Rice. 2. Matrix of types of financial condition of the enterprise

where Z, Y, X are the coordinates of the financial condition, characterizing the dynamics of changes in its individual components; r, y, x, - actual values of the corresponding financial indicators; Yu; - weight (importance) of the financial ratio; I. - the average value of the financial indicator; m - the number of financial indicators of the integral assessment.

The weight and standard value of the indicators are defined in Table. 5.

4. Finding an integral indicator of financial condition according to the formula:

5. Comparison of the obtained numerical indicators with the linguistic types of the financial condition by coordinates (see Fig. 2, Table 7).

6. Generalization of the conclusion regarding the financial condition of the enterprise on the basis of an integral indicator.

The application of the above approach involves the construction of a number of analytical tables. These calculations were carried out for all the enterprises under study, but the volume of the article does not allow drawing conclusions and calculations for all economic entities, therefore, as an example, calculations are given for Trubstalkomplekt LLC, where the proposals developed by us were put into practice (Table 8) .

On the basis of the performed calculations and the proposed matrix of types of financial condition of Trubstalkomplekt LLC, the general trends in its change were determined and the factors negatively affecting the financial condition of the company were identified. Analysis of the data obtained makes it possible to assert that the main reason for the negative dynamics of the change in the integral indicator in 2011-2013. there was a reduction

Table 8

Integral indicator of the financial condition of Trubstalkomplekt LLC*

indicator and. g a. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

y y x f. y y y x f. y y y x f. y y x f. y y x f

Capital efficiency, Z

Return on current assets 8 0.175 0.231 10.55 0.021 0.97 0.043 1.96 0.191 8.73 0.208 9.49

Profitability of sold products 7 0.128 0.142 7.77 0.075 4.08 0.069 3.76 0.131 7.16 0.159 8.71

Mother turnover ratio 5 12.836 8.670 3.38 9.395 3.66 11.220 4.37 8.533 3.32 7.358 2.87

real assets

Debtor turnover ratio 12 7.617 3.806 6.00 4.637 7.31 5.556 8.75 5.047 7.95 7.212 11.36

debt

27,69 16,02 18,84 27,16 32,43

Solvency and liquidity, U

Absolute liquidity ratio 14 0.189 0.001 0.101 0.001 0.065 0.001 0.087 0.002 0.145 0.001 0.093

Current liquidity ratio 7 1.648 0.647 2.747 0.798 3.390 0.892 3.789 1.114 4.733 1.286 5.460

У 2.85 3.45 3.88 4.88 5.55

Financial stability, X

Financial independence ratio 4 0.639 0.477 2.984 0.459 2.871 0.420 2.631 0.571 3.575 0.556 3.479

X 2.98 2.87 2.63 3.57 3.48

Integral indicator 33.52 22.35 25.34 35.61 41.47

General characteristics of the financial condition satisfactory unstable unstable satisfactory satisfactory

economics of the region vol. 12, no. 2 (2016) www.economyofregion.com

the level of efficiency in the use of capital, due to a decrease in the profitability of product sales. In addition, there was an insufficient level of liquidity and financial stability, but at the same time a slight gradual improvement in the solvency of the enterprise. In 2014-2015 Trubstalkomplekt LLC, by increasing the efficiency of capital use, managed to improve financial stability and bring it closer to the recommended value.

It should be noted that during the study period, the company experienced a lack of liquidity, which led to an insufficient level of solvency, which negatively affected the overall assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise. Thus, in order to further improve the financial condition of Trubstalkomplekt LLC, it is necessary to implement a policy that

aimed at optimizing the ratio of assets and liabilities.

Based on the study, it can be argued that the integral assessment is the basis for predicting the financial condition of the enterprise, since it consists of the main indicators that comprehensively reflect it.

The possibility of decomposing the integral assessment into components - financial stability, liquidity, solvency and efficiency of capital use - will make it possible to identify factors that significantly affect the financial condition of the enterprise and to forecast its activities in a dynamic perspective. In general, the universality and adequacy of the proposed approach to the integral assessment will make it possible to use it as the basis for predicting the financial condition of an enterprise.

List of sources

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Kurdzhiev Sergey Panteleevich - Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor, Head of the Department of Economics, Finance and Environmental Management, South-Russian Institute of Management - branch of the RANEPA (Russian Federation, 344002, Rostov-on-Don, Pushkinskaya st., 70; e- mail: [email protected]).

Mambetova Aleksandra Aleksandrovna - Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor, Rostov State University of Economics (RINH) (Russian Federation, 344002, Rostov-on-Don, Bolshaya Sadovaya St., 69, 522; e-mail: [email protected]).

Peshkova Elena Petrovna - Doctor of Economics, Professor, South-Russian Institute of Management - Branch of the RANEPA (Russian Federation, 344002, Rostov-on-Don, Pushkinskaya St., 70, 614; e-mail: [email protected]).

For citation: Ekonomika regiona. - 2016. - Vol. 12, Issue 2. - pp. 586-601

S. P. Kyurdzhiev a), A. A. Mambetova b), E. P. Peshkova a)

a) South-Russian Institute of Management - Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public

Administration (Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation; e-mail: [email protected]) b) Rostov State University of Economics (Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation)

An Integral Evaluation of the Financial State of the Regional Enterprises

The subject matter of the article is the development of theoretical positions and methodical approaches to the integral evaluation of the financial state of the region's metallurgical enterprises. The purpose is to show the possibility of dividing the integral evaluation into separate elements for using this tool to build individual models based on the forecasting of the various coordinates of the financial position of an enterprise. methodological approaches to the increase of the quality of analysis by eliminating certain shortcomings of discriminant models in order to clarify the algorithm of constructing the integral index. , abstraction, comparison whi ch give the possibility of determining the financial indicators needed to build the predictive models of financial state; the methods of correlation and regression analysis, which allow to improve the integral value and to build the mathematical forecasting models. With the purpose of improving the integral evaluation of the financial condition of an enterprise, the geometric interpretation is used, which involves the dividing of the integral indicator on the individual elements. The special feature of the proposed methodological approach consists in the implementation rules for the certain procedures of the evaluation of financial position and generalization of the analysis results. The proposed approach can be used by financial analysts to elaborate the strategic plans of company development and structure optimization of financial resources. This research allows to define quantitative the influence of separate parameters on the general assessment of the financial position for the purpose of its forecasting, which is understood as the system of the evidence-based probabilistic assumptions of the basic and alternative structural changes of the enterprise" s assets and liabilities.

Keywords: modeling of financial position, integral evaluation of the financial position, financial performance, profitability, paying capacity, liquidity, financial stability, composition and structure of assets and capital, efficiency of enterprise management, forecasting

1. Peshkova, E. P. & Kyurdzhiev, S. P. & Mambetova, A. A. (2015). Metodicheskiy podkhod k formirovaniyu i otsenke urovnya konkurentosposobnosti khozyaystvuyushchikh subektov . Vestnik Rostovskogo state ekonomicheskogo universiteta (RINKh), 2(50), 117-125.

2 Balabanov, I. T. (2010). Financial management. Teoriya i praktika: uchebnik. Moscow: Perspektiva Publ., 656.

3. Savitskaya, G. V. (2013). Kompleksnyy analiz khozyaystvennoy deyatelnosti predpriyatiya: ucheb. posobie. . Moscow: NITs Infra-M Publ., 607.

4. Kovalev, V. V. (2013). Analiz balansa, or kak ponimat balans: uchebno-praktich. posobie, 3rd ed. . Moscow: Prospekt Publ., 320.

5. Berdnikova, T. B. (2012). Analiz i diagnostika finansovo-khozyaystvennoy deyatelnosti predpriyatiya: ucheb. posobie. Moscow: Infra-M Publ., 215.

6. Taffler, R. & Tisshaw, H. (1977). Going, Going, Gone - Four Factors Which Predict. Accountancy, 3, 50-54.

7. Sahakian, C. E. (1977). The Delphi Method. The Corporate Partnering Institute, 5, 47-54.

8. Tereshchenko, O. O. (2004). Antikrizisnoye finansovoye upravlenie na predpriyatii. Kiev: KNEU Publ., 268.

9. Erina, A. M. (2012). Statisticheskoye modeling and forecasting: ucheb. posobie. Kiev: KNEU Publ., 170.

10. Dougerti, K. (2002). Introduction to econometriku: per. sengl. Moscow: Infra-M Publ., 402.

11. Kremer. N. Sh. & Putko, B. A. (2013). Ekonometrika: uchebnik dlya vuzov. Moscow: Yuniti-Dana Publ., 311.

12. Pogostinskaya, N. N. (2010). Sistemnyy analiz finansovoy otchetnosti: ucheb. posobie. St. Petersburg: Mikhaylov V. A. Publ., 96.

13. Chesser, D. L. (1974). Predicting Loan Noncompliance. The Journal of Commercial Bank Lending, 56(12), 28-38.

14. Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial Ratio and Predictions of Failure. Empirical Research in Accounting Selected Studies. Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research, 4, 39-47.

15. Altman, E. I. Personal Internet Homepage. Retrieved from: http://www.pages.stern.nyu.edu/~ealtman/index.html (date of access: 03/21/2015).

Sergey Panteleyevich Kyurdzhiev - Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Head of the Department of Economics, Finances and Environmental Management, South-Russian Institute of Management - the Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (70, Pushkinskaya St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation; e-mail: [email protected]).

Aleksandra Aleksandrovna Mambetova - Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Professor, Rostov State University of Economics (69, Bolshaya Sadovaya St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation; e-mail: [email protected]).

Elena Petrovna Peshkova - Doctor of Economics, Professor, South-Russian Institute of Management - the Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (70, Pushkinaskaya St., Rostov-on-Don, 344002, Russian Federation; e- mail: [email protected]).

Index
Solvency level actual	0,50,5+0,740,3+0,6*0,2=0,59	0,440,5+0,590,3+0*0,2=0,397	0,3550,5+0,260,3+0*0,2=0,25
Actual level of financial independence	0,020,4+0,480,3+1,36*0,3=0,56	0,160,4+0,120,3+(-2,58)*0,3= -0,674	0,060,4+0,050,3+(-15,82)*0,3= -4,71
The level of financial independence is critical	0,020,4+0,480,3+1*0,3=0,452
Integral indicator actual	0,590,6+0,560,4=0,578	0,3970,6+(-0,674)0,4=-0,03	0,250,6+(-4,71)0,4=-1,734
Integral indicator normative	0,590,6+0,4520,4=0,53

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