Russians are coming: Marketing of the era of import substitution. How import substitution stimulates Russian goods to change Marketing in the era of import substitution

14.07.2023

It all started as usual: with an emotional decision, multiplied by incompetence with shortsightedness and already covered with traditional hypocrisy. Yes, I'm talking about the food embargo and its unpleasant consequences.

Although officially the food embargo was introduced as an asymmetric response to Western sanctions and served under the sauce of supporting domestic producers, in the first place, it seems to me, it was a spit in the direction of the "creative class".

In this sense, everything was perfect. Firstly, I really feel humiliated that I can't just go and buy my favorite gorgonzola in the store and eat it with honey and a good glass of wine. Secondly, I am absolutely sure that those responsible for making this decision still do not deny themselves anything. And thirdly, a huge number of compatriots, for whom the words "parmesan" and "jamon" are almost abusive, happily supported this decision. Bingo! Another elegant multi-move, Putin outplayed everyone.

There is only one problem with this whole story, and that is that the victory turned out to be Pyrrhic. Demonstrating a truly Jesuit sophistication in domestic political intrigues, our government over and over again stumbles over its misunderstanding of the laws of the economy and the motives of the behavior of normal people.

When, in its infinite wisdom and concern for the public good, the government imposed an embargo on the import of beef, pork, poultry, fish, shellfish, dairy products, as well as vegetables and root crops into the Russian Federation, it immediately became clear to everyone except this very government: it would rise in price, oh how the price will go up.

Moreover, everything will rise in price at once: both prohibited and permitted, and imported, and domestic. This is how our economy works, in which 36% of food products are imported. Yes, and you don’t need to understand macroeconomics, it’s enough to grow up in this country to understand such things intuitively, at the level of genetic memory. And then reflexively run to the store, buy buckwheat and stew, while they are still there.

What has the government done to avoid rising prices? That's right: organized a commission, which was instructed to "ensure the balance of commodity markets and prevent an acceleration in the growth of prices for agricultural products, raw materials and food." Absolutely logical decision, by the way.

Firstly, at least some kind of imitation of activity must be created so that there is something to tell the electorate.

Secondly, the commission is such a special format of work in which it is impossible to find the guilty when nothing comes of it.

Thirdly, even a hedgehog understands that no commission will hold prices, so a streamlined empty wording “to prevent growth from accelerating” is used. That is, if prices first rise several times, and then only by 50%, then everything is fine, the commission coped.

You know as much as I do how much the prices of products have actually risen, you don’t even smell of any official 6-7% here. (How official inflation statistics may differ from the real one and why, I already .) For example, in the Samara region, prosecutors compared prices in August and December 2014 and found that cabbage, cucumbers and peppers rose in price by 353%, 544% and 654%, respectively . During the same period, the cost of buckwheat increased by 276%. Over 50% added to the cost of meat products, frozen fish, cheese, sour cream and potatoes. In January, prices continued to rise: in 22 days, prices for tomatoes rose by 26%, cucumbers by 48%, carrots by 58%, and grapes by 85%.

Why prices are rising

Two reasons led to the rise in prices: the food embargo and the depreciation of the ruble.

Let's start with the obvious: retail chains preferred to buy imported products not at all out of a desire to ruin the long-suffering domestic manufacturer. The reasons were ridiculously banal:

buying products of comparable quality abroad is simply cheaper;
at a comparable price, the quality of imported products is incommensurably higher;
many imported products simply do not have a sane domestic counterpart.

Why this situation has arisen, we will talk later, but for now just think about the consequences of the embargo. There are also exactly three of them:

price increases (due to switching to more expensive suppliers or shortages);
declining quality of available products;
the disappearance from the shelves of entire categories of goods (for example, hard cheeses).

With the depreciation of the ruble, everything is also simple: the purchase prices for imported goods in foreign currency remained unchanged, in rubles they almost doubled. In addition, the price includes the expectation of a further fall of the ruble. After all, if a trading company buys products for foreign currency, sells for rubles, and between buying and selling the rate manages to grow, then instead of profit, the company risks incurring losses. Who needs it?

With "domestic" goods, the story is similar, only the causal chain is a little longer. It was not in vain that I put the word “domestic” in quotation marks: in the cost of almost any locally produced product there is something imported: seeds, fertilizers, technical equipment, packaging materials, and so on. Until we finally turn into North Korea, the price of any domestic product will depend to a greater or lesser extent on the exchange rate of the ruble.

In the meantime, while the border is not closed and the export of domestic goods is possible, another strong factor is at work: the price of this product abroad. (This primarily concerns exchange goods: grain and fertilizers, but this factor also affects the rest.) It makes no sense for a manufacturer to sell his product cheaply to a domestic buyer if they are ready to buy it abroad and pay more.

Obviously, no import substitution, even if it is three times successful, can reduce the price as long as there is an alternative market where products can be sold at a higher price.

The Empire Strikes Back

In addition to such purely decorative measures as the organization of various commissions, the government has a few more ideas on how to contain price increases:

change of "bad" foreign suppliers (Europe and America) to other, "good" ones;
notorious import substitution and support for domestic producers;
fight against windmills administrative regulation of the market.

Let's see what is realistic and what is not, and what consequences await us.

Change of suppliers

In order to understand that this is practically impossible, just look at the world map of agricultural zones. The color indicates the percentage of land used for planting (darker - more), numbers - the area of the zone in million hectares.

The largest and most well-developed agricultural zone is located in the USA and captures the south of Canada. The next one is Europe and the south of Russia, Kazakhstan, the Middle East. All that remains besides the ones already listed are China, India, a little bit of South America and a tiny piece of Australia. Africa can't even be taken into account.

From Europe, the USA, Canada and Australia, we have forbidden ourselves to import products, India exports almost nothing, only China and South America remain.

China exports quite a lot of food - about 36 billion dollars a year, which is approximately equal to the exports of Spain, almost half the exports of France, Germany or Holland, and three times less than the food exports of the United States.

Any country (even a major exporter) simultaneously imports food - well, bananas and apples cannot grow equally well in either direction. So Holland produces and exports food products significantly more than it imports (79 against 49.5 billion dollars). And China, on the contrary, imports twice as much as it exports, that is, it makes no sense to rely on it as a supplier of products.

South America is good for everyone, except for two things: small production volumes (only Argentina is noticeable with its 35.7 billion dollars), which they sell well even without us, and geographical remoteness, which fundamentally increases the price. Actually, this is the most distant point of the world from us.

Conclusion: substitution of current suppliers of imported products is almost impossible and will inevitably lead to higher prices.

Import substitution

Well, it's time for fucking stories and import substitution is one of my favorites, right after nanotechnology and modernization, and it's not even clear which story is more fucking than others.

As you already know, we live in the largest country in the world and all other countries envy us. Together with Crimea, the area of the Russian Federation is 17,124,442 km2. Then come Canada, China and the United States.

And this is a map of agricultural lands of the Russian Federation.

Agricultural land occupies 196.2 million hectares, and directly arable land - 115.1 million hectares, which is approximately 6.7% of the entire territory. Why so few? Because up to 65% of the territory of the Russian Federation is occupied by permafrost. The best that can grow on it are moss and stunted shrubs.

Crop productivity is very dependent on average annual temperatures, and the average annual temperature of the Russian Federation is a harsh minus 5.5 degrees Celsius. For comparison: in

Finland +1.5 degrees. In Helsinki, St. Petersburg and Moscow, the average annual temperatures are the same: + 5C. In the warmest of the agricultural centers of the Russian Federation - Krasnodar +12. In the US, the average is +12, in Germany +8, in France +12, in Spain +15.

This means that never and under no circumstances will we get the same yield as in the US and Europe. That is, even with absolutely similar labor productivity, the cost of domestic products will always be higher than imported ones.

By the way, about productivity: in Canada, two people can fully serve a farm for 200 cows. For us, this is something from the realm of legends and legends - on a farm of this size, we have two people, this is only the chairman and chief accountant, and besides them, another 20-30 people work there: milkmaids, machine operators, watchmen, mechanics, veterinarians and who the hell knows who else . All this ultimately increases the cost of production.

Yes that there Canada! Labor productivity in the agricultural sector of the Russian Federation is approximately two times lower than in our other sectors: the share of agriculture in Russia's GDP is 4.7% (2009), and the share of people employed in agriculture is 10% (2008) .

Another factor that increases the cost of domestic food products is our vast expanses. More precisely, a long transport arm. Take, for example, the forbidden Norwegian salmon. What can replace it? That's right: ours, the Far East. How much can it cost?

The answer is very simple: exactly as much for how much it can be sold on the spot to the Japanese, plus the cost of delivery to central Russia. The distance from Vladivostok to Moscow along the highway is 9141 km, in a straight line - 6417 km. At the same time, from Oslo (Norway) to Moscow, 1953 km, and in a straight line - 1644 km. The difference is four times for a product that must be transported in refrigerators. Where to carry more profitable - obviously.

Now for the time factor. Laws are soon written, but not soon things are done, especially in agriculture. It takes 15-20 months to fatten a bull, otherwise the game is not worth the candle. How long fruit trees grow - guess for yourself. The notorious parmesan ripens from 12 to 36 months, provided that the technology for its production has already been mastered.

Somehow I happened to see an interview with a Dutch cheese maker who said that his company has been producing Maasdam cheese for 30 years, and now they have finally managed to ensure that the holes in it turn out exactly as they should. Thirty years to obtain the highest quality product in a country with centuries-old cheese-making traditions! How long will it take in the homeland of the legendary Poshekhonsky, Russian and Kostroma cheeses? Most likely, I just will not live up to this moment.

Well, God bless them, with cheeses. Let's talk about vegetables. 65-70% of vegetable production, all rice, more than 20% of fodder is produced on reclaimed lands, which occupy 7.9% of the total arable land. The state of these lands is rather deplorable: more than half of the irrigation systems (2.4 million hectares) need reconstruction, more than a third of the drainage systems (1.9 million hectares) are in an unsatisfactory reclamation condition. To increase the production of vegetables, you must first at least put in order what was destroyed.

So, the best we can hope for in the field of import substitution of agricultural products is to obtain the required amount of products of more or less decent quality, but still more expensive than imported ones, in a few years, for which we will have to increase the production of milk and meat by about 30-30%. 35% of the current volume, vegetables and fruits - by 100% or more.

This will require large-scale land reclamation, the construction of new farms or the restoration of old ones, the purchase of agricultural machinery, an increase in the capacity of the food industry, the purchase of additional quantities of young animals, seed material, fertilizers, and fuels and lubricants. All this is connected with grandiose investments, which will begin to give returns only after a few years. State assistance would not hurt at all. Moreover, even super-prosperous Europe, compared to us, does not forget to subsidize its agriculture, spending 40-50 billion euros a year on it, that is, about 3 trillion. rubles.

I must say right away: 3 trillion is more than the entire gross product in agriculture, hunting and forestry in Russia, which amounted to 2.4 trillion in 2014. rubles. The number is outrageous for us. If we spent so much on subsidies, then our products would not just be free, we would still be paid a little extra for them in the store.

In fact, the government plans to spend 2 billion rubles in 2015 on discounts on domestic agricultural machinery and another 2 billion on leasing subsidies. This is approximately 1:1000 of EU subsidies to its agricultural producers. How realistic it is to catch up and overtake them at such a pace - decide for yourself.

It is all the more pointless to count on raising agriculture with credit money - not only do loans for our producers cost many times more than for European ones thanks to games with a key rate, but there is nothing special to take them for: over the years of stability, many agricultural enterprises have already taken everything loans that they could, pawning almost everything they had under them. No one will give them new ones in such a situation.

Since it’s not very good with money, our state copes as best it can, and for this it has several administrative tools from the category of “forbid and not let go”:

Export duties on fertilizers and agricultural products;
Fixing prices for socially significant goods;
Liquidation of the institution of commercial intermediaries;
Restriction of the trade margin;
Requirements for the minimum assortment in retail outlets.

Actually, the mechanism is already running:

FAS and the prosecutor's office are still under the illusion that prices can simply be taken and adjusted on command. On January 23, the head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS), Igor Artemiev, cheerfully reported that they had initiated 98 cases of price gouging. At the same time, the Federal Antimonopoly Service cannot explain how exactly the service determines the validity or invalidity of price increases and how it relates to manufacturers' arguments about a large foreign exchange component in the cost of domestic products.

Retail chains may be banned from direct purchases of imported products. The corresponding bill is planned to be submitted for discussion during the spring session of the Russian parliament, according to TASS with reference to the Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Agrarian Food Policy and Environmental Management Sergei Lisovsky.

On February 1, Russia introduced an export duty on wheat in the amount of 15% of the customs value plus 7.5 euros, but not less than 35 euros per ton.

The Ministry of Agriculture did not lag behind and also offered two options to help farmers: introduce export duties on mineral fertilizers or freeze domestic prices for them. Worried about the prospect of imposing duties, fertilizer producers promised not to raise prices and made the right choice - only 10-25% of their production goes to the domestic market.

In Nizhny Novgorod, intermediaries (distributors of agricultural products) were blamed for the rise in prices and retailers were offered to buy it directly from manufacturers.

Deputies from United Russia plan to limit trade margins on socially significant goods, as well as to limit the return of retail chains of socially significant goods that are not sold before the expiration date.

The government already has the opportunity to fix retail prices for up to 90 days for "socially important" goods and can be used at any time.

Do you want to know what will happen as a result of such “support”? Yes, you yourself probably know:

A sharp decline in the profitability of those few manufacturers who have a real export prospect and who could develop, grow, create jobs.
Growth in prices for goods not included in the list of "socially significant" to compensate for the resulting losses of retail chains.
Shortage of goods, the prices of which will be fixed. Producers will keep them, and consumers will buy them up as long as there is such an opportunity.
Retail chains will find themselves between two fires: on the one hand, an increase in purchase prices, on the other, fixed selling prices. When they want to abandon unprofitable goods, they will be obliged to keep this assortment on the shelves under the threat of losing their license to retail. A lot of people think it's time to close.
Fighting intermediaries will only worsen the situation. Distributors are the circulatory system for retailers. These are warehouses, transport, packaging, sorting. Of course, you can buy products from the manufacturer without them, but what will you do if you need three sacks of potatoes in Moscow, and the manufacturer sells them only in self-pickup cars from Krasnodar?

In short, if all the ideas of the government are implemented, then we will get exactly what the USSR ended up with - cards and coupons, shortages and queues. For general development, you can read what is happening now in Venezuela, another major oil exporter.

Oh yes! My friends complain that recently I have been writing only about the bad, but I already want something positive, life-affirming. Therefore, I would like to end with good news: there is one category of our compatriots who, even in this difficult situation, will certainly be able to increase their well-being. These are the employees of the prosecutor's office, the federal antimonopoly service, and many other oversight agencies, whose representatives are already joyfully knocking on the doors of greedy retailers, heartless exporters and treacherous distributors, preparing to reap a bountiful harvest from them. Let us rejoice at the new successes of the officials and security forces standing guard over our interests!

Update 04/03/2015:

The restriction on the import of products has not yet helped Russian farmers - many have even reduced investment programs, Andrey Oleinik, managing director of agribusiness at Basel, head of the board of directors of the Kuban holding, told RBC.
The Russian Guild of Bakers and Confectioners (ROSPiK) complained to the Federal Antimonopoly Service about regional authorities that freeze prices in retail chains. They argue that such measures lead to the death of the business.
The brewing company Baltika (part of the Carlsberg Group) plans to sell the factories stopped in January in Chelyabinsk and Krasnoyarsk. Earlier, Baltika adopted a moratorium on hiring employees and increasing wages.

Update 13/03/2015:

Producers in China and India did not live up to expectations in terms of meat supplies to Russia after the introduction of a food embargo by the country, said the head of Rosselkhoznadzor Sergey Dankvert.

The main goal of import substitution is to create the environment for the national industry, in which its greater growth will be observed.

According to the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020, the following areas were identified as goal-setting in the formation of the import substitution policy as part of the transition from the export-raw material to the innovative model of economic growth: Gusakov N.P., Andronova I.V. Conceptual approaches to the development of a new Economic Security Strategy // National Interests: Priorities and Security. 2014. No. 46. P. 8.:

Consolidation and expansion of Russia's global competitive advantages in traditional areas (energy, transport, the agricultural sector, processing of natural resources), including the realization of agricultural potential in terms of developing the export of grain and other agricultural products, the production of environmentally friendly products, import substitution in the domestic market of livestock products ;

Growth (including through import substitution) of medium-tech production - the food industry, the building materials industry, the woodworking and pulp and paper industries, as well as the export-oriented chemical industry and non-ferrous metallurgy;

The development of dual technologies, the technological renewal of the mass sectors of the economy (automotive, transport engineering and machine tool building), which play a decisive role in raising the average technological level of industry and import substitution;

Intensive processes of import substitution in the food industry, the production of household appliances and the automotive industry.

In the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2020, along with the three main national security priorities (national defense, state security, public security), five sustainable development priorities are identified:

Improving the quality of life of Russian citizens by guaranteeing personal safety and high standards of life support;

Economic growth, primarily through the development of a national innovation system and investment in human capital;

Science, technology, education, healthcare and culture, which are developed by strengthening the role of the state and improving public-private partnerships;

Ecology of living systems and rational nature management through balanced consumption, development of advanced technologies and expedient reproduction of the country's natural resource potential;

Strategic stability and equal strategic partnership.

Import substitution of goods by products of a domestic manufacturer at the present stage shows a noticeable increase and is especially important in the field of public procurement. The state order is currently given paramount importance as a mechanism that stimulates both macro- and microeconomic processes in a modern state. This mechanism, in one form or another, is actively used by a number of countries, including countries with high economic performance, as a measure to support domestic producers. Our country is no exception.

In this strategic document, import substitution is directly indicated only in relation to the development of conceptual and program documents for interregional and territorial planning, the creation of a comprehensive system for controlling risks, primarily in the field of food security (paragraph 50 “due to the development of biotechnology and import substitution for basic food products”) and in the financial sector (clause 63 “pursuing an active state anti-inflationary foreign exchange, exchange rate, monetary and fiscal policy focused on import substitution and support for the real sector of the economy”).

Nevertheless, it seems that this institution of import substitution is directly related to all the declared strategic priorities of national security.

President of the country V.V. Putin spoke about the need for import substitution in May 2014, speaking at the SPIEF: “I consider it necessary to quickly analyze the possibilities of competitive import substitution in industry and agriculture.” At the same time, the president noted that the policy of import substitution would be carried out in accordance with WTO rules and Russia's obligations to partners in the Eurasian Economic Union. The basis for import substitution should be internal sources of growth.

Prime Minister D. Medvedev called the development of import-substituting industries one of the policy priorities. It is important to note that this is not only about replacing the production of already existing finished products.

According to experts, in the event of a large-scale unforeseen situation (war, international isolation, etc.), Russia will practically not be able to provide itself with strategically necessary products.

Import substitution as the main element of industrial policy will minimize the negative effect of the imposed sanctions. The main goals of import substitution are:

Ensuring the national and state security of the Russian Federation;

Achieving technological independence in critical areas;

Assistance in the formation of a positive trade balance;

Growing national leaders to conquer the global market.

The policy of import substitution can lead to important changes in various areas, in particular:

Growth in employment of the population and, as a result, to a decrease in unemployment and an increase in living standards;

Activation of scientific and technological progress and an increase in the level of education;

Strengthening the economic and military security of the country;

Growth in demand for domestically produced goods;

Expansion of production capacities.

The main criteria for the process of import substitution should be economic, social and strategic expediency. The stability of the resource supply of the economy, and hence economic security, depends on the stability of the foreign trade balance.

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation S. Tsyb emphasized: “…when solving the problems of import substitution in industry, we should not deny the principles of international economic integration. We do not fence ourselves off from the world, but we conduct a dialogue with our foreign partners as openly and transparently as possible. The development and support of domestic production does not exclude the possibility of technology transfer, creation and localization of production with the attraction of foreign investment.”

According to V.V. Putin, when developing an import substitution strategy, special attention should be paid to the definition of: import substitution targets; the procedure for selection and incentive measures for enterprises and organizations participating in the implementation of plans; federal executive bodies responsible for the implementation of these plans.

Various experts are optimistic about the effect of the import substitution program. Thus, the Ministry of Industry and Trade believes that in case of successful implementation of a well-thought-out policy of import substitution, by 2020 it is possible to reduce import dependence in various industries from 70 ... 90% to 50 ... 60%, and in a number of industries - to reach lower rates. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has set the task of reducing (until 2020) the share of imports in the manufacturing industry as a whole from 51 to 39% Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation [Electronic resource] Access mode: http://minpromtorg.gov.ru..

The import substitution program will allow Russian enterprises to form an additional volume of production in the amount of more than 30 billion rubles. annually (starting from 2015), considers the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade D.V. Manturov. According to experts of the All-Russian Popular Front, as a result of the substitution of imported components and materials with domestic ones, it is possible to ensure the economic growth of Russia in the next 8 years by 5 ... 7% annually. Economists suggest that with the activation of import substitution processes, the growth of industrial production in the Russian Federation by 10 ... 15% or more in the next 5 ... 7 years is possible.

According to the calculations of the working group of the State Council, the volume of replacement should be at least 4 trillion. rub., implementation period - 2-3 years. During this time, at least a million jobs will be created, and additional tax revenues to the budgets of all levels will amount to about 500 billion rubles. As the governor of the Belgorod region and the head of the working group of the State Council E. Savchenko said: "... by implementing the import substitution program, we will make an economic breakthrough, which would have previously taken many years."

President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin named the production of software, radio-electronic and power equipment, the textile industry and food production among the priority sectors in which import substitution is possible in the first place.

According to the results of the analysis conducted by the Ministry of Industry and Trade in June 2014, the most promising in terms of import substitution are:

Machine tool industry (the share of imports in consumption, according to various estimates, more than 90%),

Heavy engineering (60…80%),

Light industry (70…90%),

Electronic industry (80…90%),

Pharmaceutical, medical industry (70…80%),

Mechanical engineering for the food industry (60…80%) Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation [Electronic resource] Access mode: http://minpromtorg.gov.ru..

As S. Tsyb notes, import substitution in these and other sectors is possible only if there are free production capacities and competitive enterprises that can offer high-quality modern products at market prices: “In the long term, reducing import dependence is possible only through innovation, investment stimulation and creation new production.

Particular emphasis is placed on the sphere of military-industrial production, where the task of complete import substitution has been set.

According to another Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, Y. Slyusar, “... speaking of import substitution, we mean total import substitution exclusively in the defense industry. The task has been set to fully produce everything related to defense and security on the territory of Russia, and we will certainly fulfill this task. As for civilian products and dual-use technologies, here we are talking about import substitution in terms of increasing the share of Russian enterprises in the market.”

Obviously, to achieve the goals of import substitution, significant efforts and investments will be required, as well as changes in the work of many enterprises and organizations.

Recently, a number of trends have emerged in domestic marketing: the use of patriotic triggers, the development of the experience economy, the emergence of simulacrum brands. The Russian market is forced to interact and compete with the foreign market, especially in the context of import substitution.

Within the framework of the business program of the exhibition "Upakovka / Upak Italy - 2015" a block of seminars "Branding - Design - Marketing" was presented, one of the main topics of which was the report of Grigory Khrabrov, strategist at the Brandson Branding Agency "How import substitution stimulates Russian goods to change. What brands mimic the new values?” During the seminar, the speaker talked about the basics of branding and rebranding, accompanying the report with specific examples, as well as the general theory of design and marketing.

Recently, a number of trends have emerged in domestic marketing: the use of patriotic triggers, the development of the experience economy, the emergence of simulacrum brands. The Russian market is forced to interact and compete with foreign ones. In this regard, the issue of import substitution and adaptation of domestic products to international conditions remains open.

Today we will look at three successful examples of Russian products adapting to new market realities and ways in which domestic producers can become truly competitive.

1. Flexibility, dynamism and ingenuity

Russian manufacturers demonstrate flexibility, dynamism and ingenuity by producing designer goods in small runs. Development of the muff brand for wheelchairs "Muftyshi".

The brand was brought to the market gradually: first - the design and the idea of customization, then the packaging - showing the functionality of the product, focusing on the constructive ease of assembly, setting up the production of bubble kits in any number of copies, developing custom packaging that allows you to revive the characters, adding emotion to them. An effective solution that increased sales was the conclusion of an agreement with stroller shops, where the couplings were presented in their functional purpose.

There are three basic design rules:

Design is always one of the value components of a product.
The design must be universal.
Only a unique product can have a unique design. Design is not an ornament or an end in itself, but a way to convey differences and advantages.

Tribuna is a company with a Soviet background. It has been operating under this brand since 1933, however, in reality, at the turn of zero, production facilities were significantly updated. Currently, the brand has poor recognition, but it has a high loyalty among a small core of the target audience, as it is associated with time-tested quality. At the same time, the company is practically the only competitive underwear manufacturer in Russia today. The meaning of the company name is not readable by the target audience and, in fact, is a tribute to tradition. For the rebranding of the company, the target audience was studied and a development strategy, positioning and brand slogans were developed: “If I like myself, others like me”, “As for me” and others. At the end of the work, a new design was developed that takes into account positioning. Separately, the speaker noted the high quality of products made from the Baltic fabric based on the layouts of Italian designers, noting that the product design does not matter at all if there is no meaning behind this design, that is, quality.

What needs to be done for a brand to be successful:

Select initially the most priority segment;
Assess the capacity of the domestic market (potential demand);
Assess the level of quality of imported products relative to the current production potential;
Develop a unique selling proposition and positioning of the future product together with the customer;
Now just start packing.

3. Death or rebirth

Soviet canteens in the new reality - the company "Obedov".

Company "Obedov" is a professional entrepreneur who not only organizes meals, but also creates an interesting environment conducive to communication in an informal setting. A special interaction design was developed for the Obedov company, which includes storytelling (entertaining and educational information on products), the feedback principle (providing feedback in a playful way in the form of napkins of different colors, each of which indicates the degree of satisfaction with the dinner), a system tastings and incentives for employees, a “happy table” promotion in the form of a lottery and other solutions.
Having briefly outlined the principles of working with the Mast hobby club, the speaker finished the report by once again focusing on the fact that brand design is a way to convey benefits, while the main characteristic of any product is quality.

Andrey Orlovsky

Tetushkin Vladimir Alexandrovich
Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Economic Analysis and Quality,
Tambov State Technical University
Tetushkin Vladimir Aleksandrovich
candidate of technical sciences, associate professor, sub-department of economic analysis and quality,
Tambov State Technical University

Annotation: The relevance of the study is explained by the fact that the President of Russia V. Putin extended the food embargo until December 31, 2017. The ban on the import of certain products was introduced in response to Western sanctions in the summer of 2014. The purpose of this study is a marketing analysis of import substitution and foreign trade in the framework of the introduction of the food embargo of the Russian Federation. Materials and methods. In this paper, various aspects of import substitution in the Russian Federation are analyzed using econometric methods. The source of data for the analysis was the reporting of Rosstat and customs statistics. Results. The scope of the results covers scientific research for students and teachers, as well as recommendations for the management of the Russian Federation and food organizations. Conclusions. The embargo created opportunities for expanding domestic production. The dynamics of production, however, shows that despite the wide potential for import substitution (in the form of imported products that have left the Russian markets), at present, its implementation is carried out in a targeted manner, mainly in the sector for the production of meat and dairy products, which also stimulates the development of processing enterprises. Success in increasing the volume of domestic production is largely due to previous investments. The extension of the food embargo for another year provides an additional opportunity for domestic producers both to adapt to the difficult economic conditions in the country and to implement the import substitution process.

Abstract: The relevance of the study due to the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the food embargo until 31 December 2017. The ban on the import of certain products was introduced in response to Western sanctions in the summer of 2014. The purpose of this study and marketing analysis of import and foreign trade in the framework of the introduction of the food embargo of the Russian Federation. materials and methods. In the present work using econometric methods to analyze different aspects of import substitution in Russia. The data source for the analysis was the reporting of customs statistics and Rosstat. results. The scope of the results covers research for students and teachers, as well as recommendations for the management of the Russian Federation and food organizations. Conclusions. The embargo created opportunities for expansion of domestic production. Dynamics of production, however, shows that despite the wide potential for import substitution (in the form of departures from the Russian market of imported products) currently its implementation is a point, mainly in the sector producing meat and dairy products, which stimulates the development of processing enterprises. Success in increasing the volume of domestic production is largely due to previously made investments. The extension of the food embargo for another year provides more opportunity for domestic producers to adapt to difficult economic conditions in the country and to implement the process of import substitution.

Keywords: marketing, analysis, security, food, economy, embargo

keywords: marketing, analysis, security, food, economy, embargo

Introduction

Russia has introduced a food embargo as anti-sanctions against the restrictive measures of Western countries, which were initiated in connection with the annexation of Crimea and the situation in the Donbass. Putin signed a decree restricting the import of certain products from the US, EU, Canada, Australia and Norway in August 2014. Later it was extended to Albania, Montenegro, Iceland and Liechtenstein, which joined the anti-Russian sanctions. At the end of last year, Ukraine also entered this list. The ban includes the supply of beef, pork, poultry, fish, cheese, milk, fruits, vegetables, and some other categories of products.

Let's analyze the sources on the subject under study. The paper gives an assessment of the economic situation that has developed in the market of agricultural products as a result of the embargo imposed by the President of the Russian Federation on the import of food products from a number of foreign countries. The article examines the possibilities of import substitution in the market of meat and meat products, the emergence of which is due to the food embargo and the depreciation of the ruble; it is proved that in the production of poultry and pork import substitution can be considered accomplished; the sources and reasons for the high dependence of the Russian market on imported beef supplies are identified, which are not likely to be overcome and ensure import-substituting growth of the industry in the short term. The article discusses the changes that have taken place in the Russian food market after the introduction of the sanctions regime by Western countries and counter-sanctions by Russia: a reduction in imports and a change in the structure of suppliers, the complication of lending conditions for agricultural producers, the degree to which domestic products fill emerging commodity niches, differentiation in the development of individual industries, a decrease in the level of consumption of products nutrition of the population, the growth of food inflation.

The article analyzes import substitution in the field of agricultural production as a process; attention is drawn to the lack of established and sustainable trends in the active development of domestic agricultural production as a reaction to the food embargo; indicates the weakening of economic and food security in the context of the devaluation of the ruble, a decrease in domestic demand, rising food prices and raising the level of its availability for the population. The article examines the situation on the food market after the introduction in August 2014 of the embargo for the EU countries, the USA, etc. The purpose of the study is to find ways to harmoniously combine various elements and mechanisms in the agri-food sector. An analysis was made on the main types of food imports (meat and dairy products).

The dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and their forecast for the short term indicate that the country's economy is unlikely to set foot on a path of sustainable growth. However, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in 2016-2018. the average annual growth rate of food exports could reach 4.5%. Political factors, namely the sanctions of Western countries and Russia's retaliatory measures (food embargo), gave impetus to the development of the agro-industrial complex: domestic enterprises had the opportunity to increase the volume of their products, replacing imported food that had left the market. An analysis of the external economic factors of import substitution indicates that, taking into account the trends that have developed in the world market (population growth, urbanization, agflation) and the presence of an untapped potential for food production in the country, the orientation of the Russian agro-industrial complex to the foreign market should be among the priority strategic goals of its development. The development of a modern agro-industrial complex at all levels of economic management is considered in the context of import substitution in connection with the sanctions announced by the United States and the West and the food embargo by Russia as a response. The government has approved a road map to promote import substitution in agriculture. The purpose of the article is to assess the potential of the agro-industrial complex of Russia, the trends in achieving food independence thresholds, to determine the methodological and practical conditions and opportunities for implementing the import substitution roadmap, the volumes, timing and growth rates for achieving the set goals.

The article describes the challenges facing Russia in connection with the introduction of an embargo on the supply of food products from a number of foreign countries and its accession to the Eurasian Economic Union. The introduction of a ban on the supply of food products from the countries of the European Union, the United States and Australia marked a new era in Russia's agricultural policy. The food embargo has caused food prices to rise and total imports in dollar terms to fall. In general, Russia's import dependence on food is quite stable over the years: in the period from 2002 to 2014. it fluctuated in the range of 11-13%. At the same time, Russia is a major food exporter. The food embargo also influenced the change in the goals of Russia's agri-food policy. The article presents the positions of the authors on the problem of import substitution associated with the sectoral sanctions announced by the West and the United States against Russia and, in response to them, the food embargo. This problem has become for the Russian economy in the current geopolitical situation, the most acute and considered at all levels and in almost all areas of the real sector of the economy, primarily in basic industries, the food complex and in the financial sector.

1. Marketing analysis of food inflation during the period of import substitution in the Russian Federation

The food embargo introduced in 2014 created an opportunity for import substitution on the part of domestic producers, but despite the potential in this area, in the short term, the possibilities for its implementation turned out to be limited and were mainly characterized by the trends of past years. At the same time, due to the rather capacious European domestic market and small volumes of exports to Russia, only certain European producers of cheeses, vegetables and fruits, as well as fish were in a vulnerable position from the introduction of the embargo. In response to the sanctions imposed on Russia by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of August 7, 2014 No. 778 “On measures to implement the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of August 6, 2014 No. 560 “On the application of certain special economic measures in order to ensure the security of the Russian Federation” for a period of For one year, a ban was imposed on the import into the Russian Federation of a certain list of agricultural products, raw materials and foodstuffs, the country of origin of which is the United States of America, the countries of the European Union, Canada, Australia and Norway. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of June 25, 2015 No. 625 extended these measures for a year, and an additional ban was introduced on the import of lactose-free dairy products supplied not for dietary therapeutic or preventive nutrition, and food or finished products made using cheese production technologies and containing 1.5% or more milkfat. This bulletin will examine the implications of these measures for the domestic market, as well as the structure of trade flows.

The introduction of retaliatory counter-sanctions by Russia led to a significant increase in prices in the domestic market, which subsequently intensified due to the devaluation of the Russian national currency. Thus, over a year and a half by May 2015, food inflation reached 28.7% (in relation to December 2013 prices). The main growth occurred in November 2014 - February 2015. It was during this period that the contribution of the fall of the ruble against the main world currencies was maximum and provided, according to the conservative estimates of the Analytical Center, up to 1/5 of the actual food inflation. The rest are almost 20 p.p. price increases are due to objective annual inflation, as well as the corresponding behavior of manufacturers and business entities engaged in trading activities in the context of limited import supplies to the Russian market.

Figure 1 - Consumer price index for food products, in % of the corresponding period of the previous year

Source: Rosstat, Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation

Consumer prices for all key socially important goods grew by double digits during the year. In May 2015, average consumer prices for beef increased by 23% compared to May 2014, for pork - by 22%, cheese - by 20%, for frozen whole fish - by 38%, carrots - by 39%, apples - by 37%, for cereals and beans - by 49.2%. It is noteworthy that the prices of goods that did not fall under the embargo grew at the same rate: the price of sugar increased by 52.2%, sunflower oil - by 23.7%, and pasta - by 21.6%.

A noticeable increase in prices for pork (and, consequently, for the closest substitute - poultry meat) and fish was noted in the first half of 2014, including in connection with the restrictions imposed by the Rosselkhoznadzor on the import of these goods. Thus, the embargo only reinforced the previously established price trends in the meat and fish markets. In turn, the increase in prices for dairy products and apples was a direct result of a reduction in the supply of imported products and reduced competition in Russian markets.

Figure 2 - Prices for meat, rub. per kg

Figure 3 - Prices for fish, rub. per kg

Figure 4 - Prices for dairy products and eggs, rub.

Figure 5 - Prices for vegetables and fruits, % of the same month before. of the year

Source: Rosstat

Let's analyze production and import substitution in the Russian Federation.

The introduction of the embargo created an opportunity for import substitution by domestic producers, but the potential of import substitution in the short term was far from being fully realized. The reasons lie in a number of objective economic factors, including:

- the production of a number of products, such as cattle meat and fish, is associated with long payback periods for investment projects.

- the production cycle can significantly exceed the annual embargo period, which negatively affects the incentives to invest in production capacity. The announcement of a one-year extension of the embargo increases incentives for producers to invest, but the planning horizon is again limited to a year.

- the growth of interest rates has largely limited the ability of producers to attract loans not only for investment, but also to replenish working capital.

— increased costs for the purchase of imported raw materials for production: hatching eggs for poultry farming, breeding stock and feed additives in dairy farming, fry and fertilized salmon caviar, potato seeds, sugar beet, corn. In addition, fodder prices are expected to rise. Food production increased in only a few categories and was able to partially replace banned imported products. Positive dynamics is observed in the production of meat, growth is provided mainly by pig and poultry farming. It should be noted that the increase in meat production is mainly due to investments made earlier in the industry. The growth of domestic production of pork and poultry meat in January-April 2015 exceeded the reduction in imports over the same period (Fig. 6). For beef, such an increase in production does not occur, moreover, at the end of 2014, there was a sharp decrease in the number of cattle. According to Rosstat, the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter (in live weight) in farms of all categories in January-April 2015 amounted to 3,985 thousand tons, or 106.5% of the corresponding period in 2014, while the production of cattle increased by 0.8%, pigs - by 3.9%, sheep and goats - by 2.4%, poultry - by 11.1%. The volume of meat production, including by-products, in January-April 2015 increased to 680 thousand tons (+13.5% compared to January-April 2014), poultry meat - up to 1.4 million tons (+12.7 %), sausage products - up to 477 thousand tons (+0.6%). In the fish industry, there is a significant decline in the production of fresh and chilled fish, while the production of frozen fish has increased, largely compensating for the drop in imports (Fig. 7). Such a sharp decline in the production of fresh and chilled fish is largely due to the high dependence of domestic enterprises on foreign fry and fertilized salmon caviar, the import of which significantly decreased in early 2015, in particular due to the depreciation of the ruble.

Figure 6 - Change in imports and meat production in January-April 2015 to January-April 2014, thousand tons

Figure 7 - Change in imports and fish production in January-April 2015 to January-April 2014, thousand tons

Source: Rosstat, Federal Customs Service of Russia

Figure 8 - Change in imports and production of dairy products in January-April 2015 to January-April 2014, thousand tons

Source: Rosstat, Federal Customs Service of Russia

Figure 9 - Production of the main types of livestock products, thousand tons

Source: Rosstat, Federal Customs Service of Russia

Domestic producers of dairy products have not yet been able to adequately compensate for the short-term import volumes that have fallen. The best results are demonstrated by the production of cheese and cottage cheese (Fig. 8). However, it should be noted that the growth trend in cheese production has been observed in the domestic market since 2013, which suggests that this result is also a consequence of earlier investments, and not so much the result of import substitution. In addition, the discrepancy between the volumes of available raw materials and the increase in cheese production may indicate that such a sharp increase may be partly due to an increase in the production of counterfeit products. The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia nevertheless notes the development of dairy cattle breeding. In January-April 2015, farms of all categories produced 8.9 thousand tons of milk (100.7% compared to 2014). The stability of its production is maintained with a reduction in the number of cows in agricultural organizations (as of May 1, 2015, the number of cows was 3.3 million heads, -2.7% compared to 2014) due to an increase in their productivity (in agricultural enterprises) up to 1,663 kg (by 6.8%). The growth in the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in agricultural organizations has a positive impact on the work of processing enterprises. The index of food production, including drinks, and tobacco for January-April 2015 amounted to 102.5% against 101.2% for the same period in 2014, including the production of meat and offal of edible slaughter animals increased compared to the same period 2014 by 13.5%, semi-finished meat (meat-containing) chilled - by 11.3%, processing and canning of fish and seafood - by 7.3%, processing and canning of potatoes, fruits and vegetables - by 3.1%, production of vegetable and animal oils and fats - by 0.3%, butter - by 8.7%, cheese and cottage cheese - by 15.6%, cream - by 9.6%. Thus, the analysis of the dynamics of domestic production shows that the increase in volumes in certain sectors is the result of earlier investments, however, due to objective reasons, the increase in production is not enough to compensate for the dropped volumes of imports. In turn, the actual absence of imported goods in the markets ensured the demand for domestically produced products, which, under conditions of fair competition with imports, could not exist, which provides the basis for increasing domestic production.

2. Marketing analysis of changes in foreign trade of the Russian Federation

With the introduction of the embargo, the volume of imports of food products to Russia has significantly decreased, and the trade structure of imports has also changed somewhat. In the commodity structure of imports to Russia, the share of imports of food products and raw materials for their production in January-April 2015 amounted to 13.1%. The value of food supplies decreased by 41% compared to January-April 2014 (the total volume of imports decreased by 38%). Changes in the structure of imports to Russia An analysis of the dynamics of imports in January-April 2015 shows that there is a significant reduction in imports for all food categories that fall under the embargo. For a number of products, there is a partial replacement of the falling volume of imports, however, for the most part of product categories, such a substitution does not occur either due to an increase in the volume of deliveries by traditional foreign suppliers, or due to the emergence of new ones. In January-April 2015, for all products subject to the embargo, without exception, there is a significant reduction in imports compared to January-April 2014. Thus, imports of fresh or chilled beef decreased by 17%, frozen beef - by 34%, pork - by 57%, chicken meat - by 46%, fresh and chilled fish - by 81%, frozen fish - by 45%, fish fillet - by 30%, dried and salted fish - by 1%, milk and cream without addition sugar - by 37%, milk and cream with added sugar - by 6%, butter - by 68%, cheese and cottage cheese - by 62%, potatoes - by 10%, carrots, beets, etc. - by 29%, apples etc. - by 40%.

Meat . In the import of fresh and chilled beef (TN VED code 0201) to Russia, the Republic of Belarus increased its share from 76% in January-April 2014 to 90% in January-April 2015, however, in absolute terms, the volume of imports from the Republic of Belarus is almost did not change. Brazil and Paraguay remain the main importers of frozen beef (TN VED code 0202). At the same time, imports from Brazil significantly decreased - the share decreased from 61% to 50%, and in absolute terms, imports decreased by 46% over the period under review. Imports from Paraguay remained virtually unchanged in absolute terms, with the share growing from 21% to 33%. Brazil remains the main supplier of pork to Russia, the share of imports from which increased from 39% in January-April 2014 to 76% in January-April 2015. However, in absolute terms, imports from Brazil decreased by 17%. Thus, deliveries that came earlier from Canada, which accounted for 37% of imports in January-April 2014, were not replaced by any of the foreign countries. A similar situation is observed in the category of chicken meat. The share of the Republic of Belarus in deliveries to Russia increased from 25% in January-April 2014 to 55% in January-April 2015, however, in absolute terms, the volume of deliveries increased by 17% (by 5.4 thousand tons). Brazil almost doubled its supplies to Russia, thereby increasing its share from 10% to 30%. The total volume of imports to Russia decreased by almost the volume supplied in January-April 2014 from the USA.

Figure 10 — Structure and volume of fresh and chilled beef imports to Russia (TN VED code 0201), thousand tons and %