Opening of new shopping centers per year

25.11.2019

Objectives of the Review: providing up-to-date information on the largest ongoing investment projects of the trade infrastructure of the Russian Federation, monitoring the implementation of investment plans of the largest retailers and developers of retail real estate, data analysis to search for new areas of development and analysis of investment activities largest companies industry, a conveniently structured description of investment projects with contact details of project participants (investor, developer, general contractor, designer, equipment suppliers and other project participants)

Directions for using the results of the study: search for clients and partners, preparation for negotiations, benchmarking, competitor analysis, marketing and strategic planning

Time frame of the study: 2017 and plans until 2021

Terms of the study: IV quarter 2017

Recommended: to monitor investment processes and construction and reconstruction projects, search for new projects, as well as to improve the efficiency of interaction with consumers of products and services, a comparative analysis of regional development. To receive regular updates on major projects in the construction industry.

Key parameters market: According to INFOLine, in 2017 more than 15 large shopping centers(with an area of 10 thousand square meters) in Russia with a total leasable area of more than 500 thousand square meters. This is the worst indicator of commissioning of retail real estate over the past 10 years. Nevertheless, in terms of the volume of commissioning of new shopping centers, Russia in Europe is second only to Turkey.

The largest shopping centers put into operation in 2017

Name		Area (Total), m
Vegas Kuntsevo
Galaxy (Galaxy) (2nd stage)
CENTRAL PARK (2nd stage of the Europe 50 complex)
Watercolor Togliatti	Tolyatti
Red Square (Phase 2)	Novorossiysk
Nordmall (3rd stage)	Novosibirsk
MEGAMAG (2nd stage)	Rostov-on-Don

MegaGRINN (3rd stage)
	Novosibirsk
	Chrysostom

Fili Grad

Against the backdrop of a decrease in purchasing power in 2015-2017, the number of new shopping center construction projects began to decline, which is associated with the strategy of developers adapted to the crisis period (avoiding the absence of tenants when opening complexes). In the competition for effective land plots for trading activities, the activity of retail chains operating in the hypermarket format has increased. These facilities require less investment (compared to shopping centers) and are built much faster. In 2017, for example, in the FMCG segment, the Lenta retail chain opened 40 hypermarkets, in the DIY segment, the Leroy Merlin retail chain opened 13 hypermarkets, and even in the furniture segment, the Hoff retail chain launched 7 full-scale hypermarkets. The INFOLine study showed that retail chains plan high investment activity in 2018-2020.

Study Benefits: Comprehensive monitoring of investment activity in various areas of construction; the possibility of obtaining information about new potential directions of development and implementation channels own products and services. The study was prepared on the basis of monthly reviews and daily thematic news "Trade and Administrative Construction of the Russian Federation". As part of the preparation of the Review "The largest hypermarkets and shopping centers planned to be opened and under construction in the Russian Federation. Projects for 2018-2021", INFOLine specialists analyzed the development plans of the largest companies in the industry, studied plans for the integrated development of territories and permits of local authorities for construction, tender documentation. In total, the Review describes more than 250 shopping facilities under construction and planned to open (157 shopping centers under construction, 50 stand-alone hypermarkets under construction and 40 hypermarkets planned to be opened).
The description of each object contains basic information about it, for example, an indication of the purpose of the object, its location, the current stage of construction, the completion date, and the amount of investment. In addition, the description of each project includes Contact Information all construction participants (customer, investor, developer, general contractor, designer, equipment suppliers and other project participants). Thanks to this information, the Review becomes a FULLY READY tool for finding new customers and partners.

Work experience and references: IA "INFOLine" has been implementing monitoring of investment activities for clients and has been releasing initiative products for the construction industry since 2005. Our regular customers more than 500 companies are in this direction, including enterprises of the LSR Group, KNAUF, Siemens, Ruukki, Rockwool and many others. In addition, IA "INFOLine" has unique competencies and experience in conducting research on the construction market, Food Industry and agro-industrial complex. You can request a questionnaire for information needs and a complete list of ready-made Researches and other information products of the IA "INFOLine"

Research methods and sources of information: The Review included objects with investments in the construction of at least 500 million rubles, total amount investment in the implementation of the projects of the Review is more than 700 billion rubles. Investment projects for the construction and reconstruction of detached hypermarkets, shopping, shopping and entertainment centers, retail parks, shopping galleries, multifunctional complexes with a trade component, etc., ongoing as of the 4th quarter of 2017 and planned for completion no earlier than the 1st quarter of 2018. The information was prepared on the basis of a combination of sources:

telephone interviewing of each company participating in the implementation of the projects described in the Review;
interviewing companies participating in the construction industry;
monitoring the state of the construction industry, the implementation of investment projects in industrial and civil construction, the commissioning of residential and non-residential facilities, the dynamics of inflationary processes, indicators retail and consumer demand using data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Construction and Housing and Public Utilities, the Ministry of Economic Development, and the Central Bank. To get a FREE example of monitoring investment projects in industrial or civil construction, click Privolzhskiy federal district(15 projects)
Southern Federal District (13 projects)
North Caucasian Federal District (2 projects)
Ural Federal District (15 projects)
Siberian Federal District (4 projects)
Far Eastern Federal District (6 projects)
Section 2. Description of hypermarket chains under construction
Hypermarkets Castorama (2 projects under construction and 1 planned)
Hypermarkets IKEA (4 projects under construction)
Hypermarkets Leroy Merlin (13 projects under construction)
Hypermarkets OBI (1 project under construction)
Selgros Cash&Carry hypermarkets (4 projects under construction)
Hypermarkets Auchan and Nasha Raduga (2 projects under construction and 11 planned)
Hypermarkets Globus (2 projects under construction and 1 planned)
Hypermarkets Europe (1 project under construction)
Hypermarkets Karusel (1 project under construction)
Hypermarkets Lenta (8 projects under construction and 6 planned)
Hypermarkets Magnit (1 planned)
Hypermarkets Maxi (1 project under construction and 6 planned)
Hypermarkets Maksidom (2 planned)
Hypermarkets Megastroy (1 project under construction)
Hypermarkets Metro Cash & Carry (6 projects under construction and 1 planned)
Hypermarkets O'Key (1 project under construction and 2 planned)
Hypermarkets Optoclub Ryady (3 projects under construction and 6 planned)
Hypermarkets Sambury (2 planned)
Hypermarkets Essen (1 planned)
Appendix 1. Representation of projects in the Review
Annex 2. INFOLine information products

We start the week with the results of the Moscow shopping center market and forecasts for 2018-2019 from JLL experts.

Brief annotation

150 thousand sq. m in 2017 - a record in Moscow for five years; result in 3,5 times lower than in 2016 ( 519 thousand sq. m).
The vacancy rate for the year decreased from 7,5% before 6,2% , while in the 4th quarter the indicator slightly increased (by 0.2 p.p.)
49 foreign brands entered the Russian market in 2017 against 47 in 2016. Most opened a debut point in Moscow, seven - in the regions (including three debuts happened in St. Petersburg).
Brands that have previously left the market are considering returning to the country.
The majority of new brands in 2017 are in the luxury and premium segments, with the share of luxury brands among newcomers doubling compared to 2016.
In 2017, the market passed the lowest point of the development cycle, and already for 2018, it has been announced for commissioning 306 thousand sq. m of shopping centers, for 2019 - 567 thousand sq. m.
In Moscow, there are fewer and fewer locations that are attractive to developers, as a result, the structure of the new supply of shopping centers is changing today: district shopping centers, areas within the MFC and TPU; Retail formats are also changing.
Subject to the commissioning of all declared objects, the share of free space by the end of 2019 will increase to 7,6% .

Extended overview

According to JLL, only three high-quality shopping centers were opened in Moscow in 2017: Vegas Kuntsevo ( 113,4 thousand sq. m), Vidnoe Park ( 24 thousand sq. m) and also shopping complex as part of the IFC "Fili grad" ( 12 thousand sq. m). Thus, the annual input volume, which amounted to 150 thousand sq. m, became a record low over the past five years. It should be noted that in the first half of the year, not a single shopping center was introduced in the capital.

Among the projects that were announced for commissioning before the end of 2017, but were postponed to 2018, are Arena Plaza (20,000 sq. m.), Mile (19,000 sq. m.), Galleon (14 thousand sq. m.) and "Petrovsky" (8.5 thousand sq. m.). In total, 306,000 sq. m. were announced for 2018. m of new retail space; The largest projects of this year will be the shopping and entertainment center on Kashirskoye Shosse (71,000 sq. m.) and Dream Island (65,000 sq. m.).

“The downward trend in the volume of commissioning is a consequence of low developer activity against the backdrop of economic crisis 2014-2016, - comments, regional director and head of the retail real estate department at JLL. – It should be noted that, first of all, developers were affected by the unavailability of debt financing in 2015-2016 and the correction of the development plans of most retailers. As a result, the list of projects in 2017 was reduced, including due to the postponement of the commissioning date. Nevertheless, we expect that the market will enter a new cycle already in 2019 and development activity will begin to recover.”

The low volume of new supply in 2017 was primarily reflected in the share of vacant space, which decreased from 7.5% to 6.2% in high-quality shopping centers in Moscow over the past year. Vacancy in the prime malls, with the highest traffic and conversion rates, remained close to zero throughout the year.

“Given the conservative forecast for commissioning in 2018, we expect retailers to maintain their focus on new, but already functioning shopping centers. Therefore, at the end of the year, the share of vacant space will not change significantly and will amount to about 6%. However, already in 2019, the volume of new construction may increase to 567 thousand square meters. m, which will lead to an increase in vacancy to 7.6%. At the same time, such a jump will occur only if all three major projects of 2019 are put into operation - the Garden Mall shopping center, the multifunctional complex on Aminyevskoye Highway and the Salaris shopping center, which together can add 322,000 sq. m. to the market. m of retail space,” says Oksana Kopylova, head of retail and warehouse real estate analytics at JLL.

A significant share in the structure of new projects in 2018-2019 is occupied by district shopping centers of a small format on the site of former cinemas, which are being implemented by the company ( 39 objects with a total area 324 thousand sq. m). As a result, the average size of shopping centers commissioned during the year in Moscow will decrease from 50 thousand sq. m in 2017 to 19 thousand sq. m in 2018 and 22 thousand sq. m in 2019.

“There are fewer locations in the city that are attractive to developers, so the structure of the new supply of shopping centers is changing today. The main volume of construction in the next two years will be local projects, retail space as part of the MFC or TPU, as well as new lines of existing facilities, - says Polina Zhilkina, Director for Russia and the CIS, Head of Retail Consulting of the Retail Real Estate Department at JLL. “At the same time, small-format projects are no less attractive to retailers than large-format shopping centers, because they give them the opportunity to be closer to consumers geographically, increase the frequency of purchases and create additional brand awareness. Moreover, even large chains now show flexibility and optimize the occupied areas, including due to reduced formats. Many grocery retailers have already launched small format stores, for example, Perekrestok, Azbuka Vkusa, Auchan, and Decathlon, Leroy Merlin, OBI, M.Video, IKEA.”

Objectives of the Review: providing up-to-date information on the largest ongoing investment projects of the trade infrastructure of the Russian Federation, monitoring the implementation of investment plans of the largest developers of retail real estate, data analysis to search for new areas of development and analysis of the investment activities of the largest companies in the industry, a conveniently structured description of investment projects indicating the contact details of the project participants (investor , developer, general contractor, designer, equipment suppliers and other project participants)

Directions for using the results of the study: search for clients and partners, preparation for negotiations, benchmarking, competitor analysis, marketing and strategic planning

Time frame of the study: 2016 and plans until 2020

Terms of the study: September - October 2016

Recommended: to monitor investment processes and construction and reconstruction projects, search for new projects, as well as to improve the efficiency of interaction with consumers of products and services, a comparative analysis of regional development. For regular up-to-date information on the most important projects in the construction industry:

Industry reviews of investment projects:

"300 largest investment projects in the construction of the Russian Federation in 2016",
"350 largest projects for the construction of agricultural complexes and food production RF. Projects 2016-2019",
"320 integrated development projects in Russia. Projects 2016-2020",
"160 largest projects for the construction of sports facilities in the Russian Federation. Projects of 2016-2019",

Periodic Reviews:

"Investment projects in industrial construction of the Russian Federation,
"Investment projects in civil construction of the Russian Federation",
"Investment projects in the transport infrastructure of the Russian Federation",
"Investment projects in the engineering infrastructure of the Russian Federation",

Thematic news:

"Trade and administrative construction of the Russian Federation",
"Housing construction of the Russian Federation",
"Industrial construction of the Russian Federation",
"Road construction and infrastructure projects of the Russian Federation".

To regularly receive up-to-date data on construction and reconstruction projects, we recommend that you subscribe for a year (more than 1000 objects in each direction) and get a 20% discount.

Key market parameters:

In 2015, 62 shopping centers with a total area of about 1.86 million square meters were put into operation in the Russian Federation. m. The total volume of quality retail space has reached almost 24 million square meters. m. At the same time, plans were previously announced to open almost 4 million square meters. m of retail space, but more than half of the announced projects were frozen, or their opening date was significantly adjusted. In terms of the number of shopping centers commissioned, 2015 was comparable to 2014, while the average size of a shopping center commissioned decreased by almost 20%. The key cities for opening new shopping centers are still Moscow and St. Petersburg.

TOP-5 shopping center construction projects

Region	An object	Stage	Commissioning	Investments, million USD
Moscow region	shopping mall "Mega Mytishchi"	Preparatory work
Chelyabinsk	shopping and entertainment center "Cloud"	Design
	shopping complex "Mega"	Design
Moscow region	shopping and entertainment center "SEC in Mytishchi"	Construction works
St. Petersburg	shopping and entertainment center "Hollywood"	Preparatory work

Source: INFOLine calculations and analysis

The description of each object contains basic information about it, for example, an indication of the purpose of the object, its location, the current stage of construction, the completion date, and the amount of investment. In addition, the description of each project includes contact information for all construction participants (customer, investor, developer, general contractor, designer, equipment suppliers and other project participants). Thanks to this information, the Review becomes a FULLY READY tool for finding new customers and partners.

Work experience and references: IA "INFOLine" has been implementing monitoring of investment activities for clients and has been releasing initiative products for the construction industry since 2005. Our regular customers in this area are more than 500 companies, including enterprises of the LSR Group, KNAUF, Siemens, Ruukki, Rockwool and many others. In addition, IA "INFOLine" has unique competencies and experience in conducting research on the construction market, the food industry and the agro-industrial complex.

Research methods and sources of information: The Review included facilities with investments in the construction of at least 2.5 million US dollars, the total amount of investments in the implementation of the projects of the Review is almost 13.5 billion US dollars. Investment projects for the construction and reconstruction of shopping, shopping and entertainment centers, retail parks, shopping galleries, multifunctional complexes with a retail component, etc., ongoing as of October 2016 and planned for completion no earlier than the 1st quarter of 2017, were studied. The information was prepared on the basis of a combination of sources:

interviewing companies participating in the construction industry;
monitoring the state of the construction industry, the implementation of investment projects in industrial and civil construction, the commissioning of residential and non-residential facilities, the dynamics of inflationary processes, indicators of retail trade and consumer demand using data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Construction and Housing and Public Utilities, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Central Bank.
monitoring of more than 5,000 media and identification of key events in the construction market, which INFOLine has been carrying out since 2002 as part of the Construction of the Russian Federation service "and" Topic news: Building and finishing materials market.
database of IA "INFOLine" on the topics "Investment projects in industrial construction of the Russian Federation", "Investment projects in civil engineering of the Russian Federation", "Investment projects in transport infrastructure".

September 22, 2015

Among the new projects are shopping centers "Rio", "Gallery", "Sky Mall" and "Salaryevo".

According to the results of 2016, the provision of New Moscow with retail space may exceed the indicators of Moscow in the old borders by 300 percent, according to a new study by NAI Becar.

Today, with the general stagnation of the market commercial real estate The New Moscow infrastructure market is growing rapidly: in 2015, about 200,000 sq.m of non-residential premises are expected to be put into operation, 30% of which will be shopping facilities.

Developers’ plans to build new large-scale shopping centers responded to the change in the direction of the residential construction vector: in 2015, Rio will open here, in 2016, Gallery, and in 2017, Sky Mall and Salaryevo.

To meet everyday demand, developers are required to include commercial infrastructure in residential projects. Part of the space is sold in the format of micro-district shopping centers - today more than five such projects are planned for commissioning - in the Rasskazovo residential complex, Novye Vatutinki, Gorchakov, Novo-Nikolskoye, etc. Realizing that the capacity of the shopping center market has its own limits, some developers rely on professional street retail.

Anna Danchenok, Deputy Director of the Strategic Consulting Department at NAI Becar, predicts that by the end of 2016, provided that all the declared objects are commissioned, the supply of retail space for the residents of TiNAO will reach 1,494 sq.m per 1,000 people, which is 300% higher compared to the average security of Moscow within the old borders. In the future, everything will depend on the situation on the housing market - today's slowdown in the sales of new buildings may in 3-5 years turn into increased competition between retail projects.

The pace of construction of retail facilities in Moscow will remain at the lowest level over the past ten years until 2019, Colliers International concluded. Now 14 shopping centers with a total area of 625 thousand square meters are under construction. m, declared for commissioning in 2018-2019. The forecast for the launch of new facilities in 2017 is about 290 thousand square meters. In the third quarter, two new centers entered the market - Vegas Kuntsevo (leasable area 113.4 thousand sq. m., 56th km of the Moscow Ring Road) and 11.6 thousand sq. m. m of retail space as part of the Fili Grad multifunctional complex in Beregovoy Proyezd. The maximum volume of commissioning of such facilities over the past decade was recorded in 2014; almost 900 thousand sq. m. m of new space. The minimum volume was noted in 2011 - about 250 thousand square meters. m.

At the same time, the increase in area is provided mainly by small objects. According to Anna Nikandrova, a partner at Colliers International, the trend for regional-format shopping centers continues (leased area is up to 10,000–15,000 sq.m.). This year, the shopping centers "Paragon" in Izmailovo, "Chocolate" in Belyaevo, "Green" in the Basmanny district, "Tsimlyansky" in Lyublino came out. “Most of them remained in the status of long-term construction for a long time,” the expert notes. Alexander Obukhovsky, director of the retail real estate department at Knight Frank, specified that the last time a shopping center of the Vegas Kuntsevo scale was opened in Moscow two and a half years ago: Columbus with a leasable area of 140,000 sq. m. m.

Now the total volume of the retail space market in Moscow is 6.8 million square meters. m, the level of vacancy -10%. Oksana Kopylova, head of retail and warehouse real estate analytics at JLL, estimates the vacancy in shopping centers even lower - at 6%, according to the data for the third quarter, by the end of the year the figure may drop to 5.7%. “Against the background of a reduction in the volume of commissioning of new facilities, vacant areas in existing shopping centers are being actively filled by tenants,” Mr. Obukhovsky is optimistic.

About 35% of offers for tenants fall on objects commissioned in 2012-2017, 29% - in 2008-2012. But, according to Anna Nikandrova, the heterogeneous structure of supply does not affect the composition of tenants. Thus, according to Colliers International, an analysis in 20 shopping centers in Moscow with a rentable area of more than 50 thousand square meters. m showed that 13 of them represented more than half of the key fashion brands. Oksana Kopylova adds that more than half of the shopping centers operating in Moscow are in need of reconception.

The largest traffic conversion is shown by small objects with an area of about 15 thousand square meters. m, agrees Evgenia Osipova, head of Cushman & Wakefield shopping center leasing. According to her, large shopping centers now have to compete with district-scale facilities. “The consumption model is changing, now the proximity of trade to home is more important than assortment and prices,” she explains. As a result, objects focused on the daily needs of the residents of the area are up to five times more resistant to change. economic conditions and consumer preferences than large shopping centers. “In large malls, at the beginning of the crisis in 2015, the traffic of visitors fell by 10%, and in small shopping centers - by only 2%,” adds Ms. Osipova. Next year, the downward trend in the area of shopping centers will continue, she is convinced. These facilities have been shrinking in area since 2016 - even then they were 7% smaller than in 2015, the average area reached 43 thousand square meters. m, in 2017 it is expected to decrease to 34 thousand sq. m. m.