Do people always act rationally? Rational problem solving Stages of rational problem solving

Management decision- this is the choice that the manager must make in order to fulfill the duties due to his position (the choice of an alternative made by the manager within the framework of his official powers and competence and aimed at achieving the goals of the organization). Decision making is the basis of management. Responsibility for making important management decisions is a heavy moral burden, which is especially evident in higher levels management.

Solution is the choice of an alternative. Every day we make hundreds of decisions without even thinking about how we do it. The fact is that the price of such decisions, as a rule, is low, and this price is determined by the subject himself, who made them. Of course, there are a number of problems relating to relationships between people, health, family budget, the unsuccessful solution of which can lead to far-reaching consequences, but this is the exception rather than the rule.
However, in management, decision making is a more systematic process than in privacy.

The main differences between managerial decisions and decisions in private life.

1. Goals. The subject of management (be it an individual or a group) makes a decision based not on their own needs, but in order to solve the problems of a particular organization.

2. Consequences. The private choice of an individual affects his own life and may affect the few people close to him.

A manager, especially a high-ranking one, chooses the course of action not only for himself, but also for the organization as a whole and its employees, and his decisions can significantly affect the lives of many people. If the organization is large and influential, the decisions of its leaders can seriously affect the socio-economic situation of entire regions. For example, the decision to close a company's unprofitable facility can significantly increase unemployment.

3. Division of labor. If in private life a person, when making a decision, as a rule, fulfills it himself, then in an organization there is a certain division of labor: some employees (managers) are busy solving emerging problems and making decisions, while others (executors) are busy implementing decisions already made.

4. Professionalism. In private life, each person independently makes decisions by virtue of his intellect and experience. In managing an organization, decision-making is a much more complex, responsible and formalized process that requires professional training. Not every employee of the organization, but only those with certain professional knowledge and skills are empowered to make certain decisions independently.

Decision making is preceded by several steps:

problems that need to be addressed;

1. development and formulation of alternatives;

choosing the optimal alternative from their sets;

approval (adoption) of the decision;

organization of work on the implementation of the solution - feedback

Classification of management decisions

Depending on the basis underlying the decision, there are:

• intuitive solutions;
• decisions based on judgments;
• rational decisions.

Intuitive solutions. A purely intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of a feeling that it is correct. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just that a person makes a choice. What we call insight or "sixth sense" are intuitive solutions. Management specialist Peter Schoederbeck points out that “While increased information about a problem can greatly aid decision-making by middle managers, those at the top still have to rely on intuitive judgments. Moreover, computers allow management to pay more attention to data, but do not cancel time-honored managerial intuitive know-how.

Decisions based on judgments. Such decisions sometimes seem intuitive, because their logic is not obvious. A judgmental decision is a choice based on knowledge or experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the current situation. Based on common sense, he chooses an alternative that has brought success in the past. However, common sense is rare in humans, so this method decision-making is also not very reliable, although it captivates with its speed and cheapness.

When, for example, you make a choice whether to study a management study program or a study program accounting, you are most likely making your decision based on judgment based on your experience with introductory courses in each subject.

Judgment as the basis management decision useful as many situations in organizations tend to be conquered frequently. In this case, the previously adopted solution can work again no worse than before, which is the main advantage of programmed solutions.

Another weakness is that the judgment cannot be related to a situation that has not taken place before, and therefore there is simply no experience of solving it. In addition, with this approach, the leader seeks to act mainly in those areas that are familiar to him, as a result of which he risks losing good result in another area, consciously or unconsciously refusing to invade it.

Rational Decisions based on methods economic analysis, substantiation and optimization.

Depending on the personal characteristics decision-making manager, it is customary to distinguish between:

• balanced decisions;
• and impulsive decisions;
• inert solutions;
• risky decisions;
• careful decisions.

Balanced Decisions are accepted by managers who are attentive and critical of their actions, put forward hypotheses and their testing. Usually, before starting to make a decision, they have formulated the initial idea.

impulsive decisions, the authors of which easily generate a wide variety of ideas in unlimited quantities, but are not able to properly verify, clarify, and evaluate them. Decisions therefore turn out to be insufficiently substantiated and reliable;

Inert solutions are the result of a careful search. In them, on the contrary, control and clarifying actions prevail over the generation of ideas, so it is difficult to detect originality, brilliance, and innovation in such decisions.

risky decisions differ from impulsive ones in that their authors do not need a thorough substantiation of their hypotheses and, if they are confident in themselves, they may not be afraid of any dangers.

Cautious Decisions are characterized by the thoroughness of the manager's assessment of all options, a supercritical approach to business. They are even less than inert ones, they are distinguished by novelty and originality.

The types of decisions that depend on the personal characteristics of the manager are typical mainly in the process of operational personnel management.

For strategic and tactical management in any subsystem of the management system, rational decisions are made based on the methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization.

Depending on the degree of preliminary formalization, there are:

• programmed solutions;
• unprogrammed solutions.

Programmed decision is the result of the implementation of a certain sequence of steps or actions. As a rule, the number of possible alternatives is limited and the choice must be made within the directions given by the organization.

For example, the head of the purchasing department of a production association, when drawing up a schedule for the purchase of raw materials and materials, may proceed from a formula that requires a certain ratio between the planned volume of production and the raw materials and materials for the production of a unit finished products. If the budget stipulates that the production of a unit of output is spent2 kg of raw materials, then the decision is made automatically - the planned production volume is 1000 pieces, therefore it is necessary to purchase 2,000 kg of raw materials.

Similarly, if from the boss financial department demanded that the surplus cash be invested in certificates of deposit, municipal bonds, or common stock, whichever is currently providing highest profit on invested capital, the choice is determined by the results of a simple calculation for each option and the establishment of the most profitable.

Programming can be considered an important auxiliary tool in making effective management decisions. By determining what the solution should be, management reduces the chance of error. This also saves time, because subordinates do not have to develop a new correct procedure every time the appropriate situation arises.

Not surprisingly, management often programs solutions for situations that recur with a certain regularity.

It is very important for the manager to have confidence that the decision-making procedure is, in fact, correct and desirable. Obviously, if the programmed procedure becomes wrong and undesirable, the decisions made with it will be ineffective, and the management will lose the respect of their employees and those people outside the organization who are affected by the decisions made. Moreover, it is highly desirable to communicate the justifications for programmed decision-making methodology to those who use this methodology, rather than just offer it for use. Failure to answer "why" questions in connection with a decision-making procedure often creates tension and resentment for the people who must apply the procedure. Efficient information exchange increases the efficiency of decision making.

unprogrammed solutions. Decisions of this type are required in situations that are somewhat new, not internally structured, or involve unknown factors. Since it is impossible to draw up a specific sequence of necessary steps in advance, the manager must develop a decision-making procedure. Among the non-programmed solutions are the following types:

• what should be the goals of the organization;
• how to improve products;
• how to improve the structure of the management unit;
• how to increase the motivation of subordinates.

In each of these situations (as most often happens with unprogrammed solutions), any of the factors can be the true cause of the problem. At the same time, the manager has many options to choose from.

In practice, few management decisions are programmed or unprogrammed in their pure form.

Most likely, they are extreme mappings of a certain spectrum in the case of both everyday and fundamental decisions. Almost all solutions fall somewhere in between the extremes.

Decision requirements

• the minimum number of adjustments;
• balance of rights and obligations of the manager making the decision - responsibility should be equal to his powers;
• unity of management - the decision (or order) must come from the immediate supervisor. In practice, this means that senior manager should not give orders "over the head" of the lower head;
• strict responsibility - management decisions should not contradict each other;
• validity - a managerial decision should be made on the basis of reliable information about the state of the object, taking into account the trends in its development;
• concreteness;
• authority - a managerial decision must be made by a body or person having the right to make it;
• timeliness - the managerial decision must be timely, because the delay in the decision sharply reduces the effectiveness of management.

Conditions for a quality solution

• application to management decision development scientific approaches management;
• study of the influence of economic laws on the effectiveness of management decisions;
• providing the decision maker with high-quality information characterizing the parameters of “output”, “input”, “ external environment” and “process” of the solution development system;
• application of methods of functional cost analysis, forecasting, modeling and economic justification of each decision;
• structuring the problem and building a tree of goals;
• ensuring comparability (comparability) of solutions;
• providing multivariate solutions;
• legal validity of the decision;
• automation of the process of collecting and processing information, the process of developing and implementing solutions;
• development and functioning of a system of responsibility and motivation for a high-quality and effective solution;
• the presence of a mechanism for implementing the solution.

A solution is considered effective if:

1. It comes from real goals.

2. For its implementation, there is the necessary time and the necessary resources.

3. It can be carried out in the specific conditions of the organization.

4. Non-standard, emergency situations are provided.

5. It doesn't provoke conflict situations and stress.

6. Changes in the business and background environment are foreseen.

7. It makes it possible to exercise control over execution.

One of the important factors affecting the quality of management decisions is the number of levels of management in the organization, the increase of which leads to the distortion of information when preparing a decision, the distortion of orders coming from the subject of management, and increases the sluggishness of the organization. The same factor contributes to the delay in the information that the subject of the decision receives. This causes a constant desire to reduce the number of levels of management of the organization.

A serious problem associated with the effectiveness of management decisions is also the problem of implementing these decisions. Up to a third of all management decisions do not achieve their goals due to a low performance culture. in our and foreign countries Sociologists belonging to the most diverse schools pay close attention to improving performance discipline, including ordinary employees in the development of solutions, motivating such activities, instilling "company patriotism", and stimulating self-government.

Decision levels

Differences in the types of decisions and differences in the difficulty of the problems to be solved determine the level of decision making.

M. Woodcock and D. Francis distinguish four levels of decision-making, each of which requires certain managerial skills: routine, selective, adaptive, innovative.

The first level is routine. Decisions made at this level are ordinary, routine decisions. As a rule, the manager has a certain program, how to recognize the situation, what decision to make. In this case, the manager behaves like a computer. Its function is to "feel" and identify the situation, and then take responsibility for starting certain actions. The leader must have a flair, correctly interpret the available indications for a particular situation, act logically, make the right decisions, show determination, ensure effective actions at the right time. This level does not require creativity, as all actions and procedures are predetermined.

The second level is selective. This level already requires initiative and freedom of action, but only within certain limits. There is a whole circle in front of the manager possible solutions, and its task is to evaluate the merits of such solutions and select from a number of well-established alternative courses of action those that best suit the given problem. Success and effectiveness depend on the manager's ability to choose a course of action.

The third level is adaptive. The manager must come up with a solution that can be completely new. Before the leader - a set of proven features and some new ideas. Only personal initiative and the ability to make a breakthrough into the unknown can determine the success of a manager.

The fourth level, the most difficult, is innovative. At this level, the most difficult problems are solved. A completely new approach is required on the part of the manager. This may be a search for a solution to a problem that was previously poorly understood or for which new ideas and methods are required. The leader must be able to find ways to understand completely unexpected and unpredictable problems, develop the ability and ability to think in a new way. The most modern and difficult problems may require the creation of a new branch of science or technology for their solution.

Optimization of management decisions

The most common methods for optimizing management decisions are:

• math modeling;
• method of expert assessments;
• brainstorming method (brainstorming);
• game theory.

Math modeling used in cases where a management decision is made on the basis of an extensive digital information, which can be easily formalized. Wide use mathematical models allows you to give a quantitative description of the problem and find the best option for solving it.

The main stages of optimizing a management decision using mathematical methods are:

Formulation of the problem.

The choice of an efficiency criterion, which should be expressed unambiguously, for example, by a certain number, and reflect the degree of compliance of the results of solving the set goal.

Analysis and measurement of variables (factors) that affect the value of the efficiency criterion.

Construction of a mathematical model.

Mathematical solution of the model.

Logical and experimental verification of the model and the solution obtained with its help.

Methods of expert assessments are applied in those cases when the problem completely or partially cannot be formalized and cannot be solved by mathematical methods.

The method of expert assessments is a study of complex special issues at the stage of development of a managerial decision by persons with special knowledge and experience in order to obtain conclusions, opinions, recommendations and assessments. The expert opinion is drawn up in the form of a document in which the course of the study and its results are recorded. The introduction indicates: who, where, when and in connection with what organizes and conducts the examination. Further, the object of examination is fixed, the methods used for the study and the data obtained as a result of the study are indicated. The final part contains conclusions, recommendations and practical measures proposed by the experts.

The most effective application of the method of expert assessments in the analysis complex processes having mainly quality characteristics, when forecasting trends in the development of the trading system, when evaluating alternative solutions.

brainstorming method(brainstorming) is used in cases where there is a minimum of information about the problem being solved and established short time to solve it. Then experts are invited who are related to this problem, they are invited to participate in an accelerated discussion of its solution. The following rules are strictly observed:

everyone speaks in turn;

speak only when they can offer a new idea;

statements are not criticized or condemned;

all offers are fixed.

Usually this method allows you to quickly and correctly solve the problem.

A variation of the brainstorming method is jury opinion. The essence of this method is that specialists from various fields of activity, interacting with each other, are involved in the discussion of the problem. For example, managers of the production, commercial and financial divisions of the company are involved in the decision to release a new product. Application this method contributes to the generation of new ideas and alternatives.

One of the methods for optimizing management decisions under conditions market competition is the use of methods used in game theory, the essence of which is to model the impact of the decision on competitors. For example, if with the help of game theory the guide trading company comes to the conclusion that in the event of a rise in prices for goods, competitors will not do the same, then it is probably advisable to abandon the decision to raise prices so as not to be at a disadvantage in competition.

Methods for optimizing management decisions can complement each other and be used in a complex way when making important management decisions.

The choice of methods for optimizing management decisions largely depends on information support management.

Many Japanese companies used the ringisei decision-making system to some extent, which provides in-depth study and coordination of decisions.

The classic “ringisei” procedure provided for multiple approval of the prepared decision at several levels of management, starting with ordinary employees (one of them is entrusted with drawing up a preliminary draft decision) and ending with top managers who approve the decision that has passed all stages of approval. Coordination includes consultations at the level of ordinary employees of various departments (they are carried out by an employee responsible for preparing a preliminary draft decision), at the level of heads of departments and other units (carried out in the form of circulation of a draft decision to all departments relevant to this issue), and then more high leaders - deputies and heads of departments or departments. By the end of circulation, the draft document is endorsed by the personal seals of dozens of chiefs of various ranks. In case of disagreement during the preparation of a decision at one level or another, consultative meetings of leaders of the corresponding level are held, during which an agreed position is developed. This practice of preparing decisions is quite complicated and lengthy, but most Japanese corporations slow down decision-making, relying on the fact that the “ringisei” procedure, which ensures the coordination of actions at the decision-making stage, facilitates the coordination of their subsequent implementation.

The system has undeniable advantages. However, it is not without some shortcomings. It is believed that the procedure should ensure the flow of new ideas and freedom of opinion when discussing decisions. But this is not always the case. Sometimes, in conditions of rigid hierarchy and respect for superiors, such a process comes down to attempts by subordinates to anticipate the opinion of leaders, rather than promoting their independent point of view. In this form, the ringisei system often turned into a complex and not always useful mechanism that took up a lot of time for managers and employees of different ranks to coordinate decisions.

Therefore, there is a gradual reduction in the sphere of influence of the ringisei decision-making method. This is due to a number of reasons, including the widespread use of planning and budgeting methods in Japanese firms (due to this, there was no need to make decisions on many issues by the traditional method). Considering that long-term planning is used, according to available data, by 83% of Japanese firms, the scale of such changes is quite tangible. At 63% of Japanese firms, the power of individuals to make decisions has been strengthened, which again has led to a reduction in the scope of ringisei. By 1974, 4% of Japanese companies had completely eliminated the ringisei system.

Most economic models assume that people are, on average, rational, and most of them act according to their preferences. However, there is a concept that corrects these assumptions and takes into account the fact that ideal rational solutions are often practically impossible due to the difficulty of controlling the problems that need to be solved. Bounded rationality is an idea that describes a person's bounded rationality in making decisions according to the individual's cognitive limitations and the time available for decision making. This assumes that the decision maker will always make his decisions satisfactory, not ideal, since people are always looking for a satisfactory solution instead of searching for the best solution within the available information.

Many modern studies in the field of the humanities, economics, political and related sciences indicate that most people are only partly rational, because. man by nature does not follow the whole logic of making rational decisions. The decision is the essence of the administrative process and its main tool for achieving goals. Its content reflects the expectations of the future, which depend on the effectiveness of institutions in the first place, and on the effectiveness of managers in decision-making. In a world of globalization, intense competition and technological development, the solution must be an effective basis for management to play its part in investing in technological development, in meeting the needs of the environment in the digital age.

A rational decision-making model implies the ability of the responsible person to clearly identify the problem and ensure that there is no conflict of goals. The decision maker usually has a clear order of preference. These preferences are unambiguous and at the same time are not governed by binding constraints in terms of timing and cost.

Although managers try to accept best solutions, but their rational assumptions do not materialize in many realistic situations, since the problems are often complex and ambiguous, the goals are unclear, and there are too many alternatives. Money, emotions and multiple human qualities also reduce the scope of possible optimal choices based on rational preferences. This is confirmed by Herbert Simon, one of the most famous scientists in the field of decision making and analysis of human behavior.

Simon divides humanitarian solutions into four main types according to four criteria:

1 - purpose of the solution;

2 - interest in the solution;

3 - the nature of the problem;

4 - corporate or personal.

Environment plays a key role in humanitarian decision-making. The environment is divided into three main types:

1. The environment of certainty.

2. The environment of the unknown.

3. Risk environment.

In connection with technical and cognitive progress, in the modern era, scientists note that when the decision-making environment was simple and its changes were slow, there was one mechanism for making managerial and other decisions. But nowadays the environment has become so complex that today it is even difficult to provide responsible person for making management decisions full information. All this forces decision makers to make often far from rational managerial decisions.

Humanitarian solutions depend on a complex interplay of situational, psychological, intellectual, cultural, environmental and sensory causes interacting with each other. These reactions lead to far from rational decisions. Human emotions are also an important element in making various decisions. It is they who often determine these levels of their rationality.

Although many believe that intuition is an unscientific and irrational decision-making tool, the results of many studies conducted in this regard have confirmed the effectiveness of intuition in managerial decision-making, i.e. the importance of human emotions in making managerial and other decisions. An intuitive decision, according to scientists, is a decision that follows from a person’s ability to simultaneously use information coming from the left and right hemispheres of the human brain, i.e. make a decision that comes from mixing facts and feelings.

In the course of the evolution of human science, several theories have emerged that examine human behavior from the point of view of its rationality. The most important of these is rational choice theory. This theory is based on three main assumptions: methodological individualism, deductive approach, and reinforced judgment. The most important area of ​​application of this theory is the study of political science in the context of electoral decisions and building alliances of various political subjects. That people are rational in their choices means that they make decisions based on a balanced calculation that takes into account losses and gains. A reasonable person always considers different options, in accordance with their priorities. He chooses the most important options based on his irrational considerations.

Emotionality plays a very important role in how a person behaves. The reaction and his behavior, whether rational or not, equally distinguish one person from another according to each person's emotions. In modern psychology, it is unambiguously recognized that people behave unpredictably and may not always be rational. This is also confirmed by ancient and modern philosophical theories and philosophers of different philosophical schools, ranging from ancient Greek philosophy to modern philosophy. Feelings and meaning are what makes a person a person. And this justifies the thesis that a person does not always act rationally.

Based on the foregoing, it can reasonably be argued that behavioral economics as a whole is a logical analytical framework that has proven fruitful in the study and management of a variety of economic phenomena. However, it is premature to state that we are dealing with an established and established system of concepts and views. But it's a matter of time. Behavioral economics is not just a connection between economics and psychology, it is a new level of economic science that uses psychology as a tool.

Thanks to behavioral economics, neoclassical theory is becoming even more in demand, as it is enriched by one of the most modern research approaches - behavioral economics. The award of the Nobel Prize to Richard Thaler means that behavioral economics is officially recognized as the future of economics. Based on it, leading economists will be able to create economic models that will allow economic agents, incl. and states, to more successfully predict and build on the basis of these forecasts their more rational behavior, taking into account the irrational component of the mechanism for making managerial decisions.

Bibliography

1. /Electronic resource/ http://www.open.edu/openlearn/money-anagement/money/economics/do- people-really-behave-rational-way. (accessed 10.11.2017).

2. Electronic Journal of Sociology (2003) ISSN: 1198 3655 Human Rational Behavior and Economic Rationality, Milan Zafirovski.

3. Herbert A. Simon / Electronic resource / http://www.cs.cmu.edu/simon/ (accessed 11/11/2017).

4. Theories of Decision-Making in Economics and Behavioral Science, Herbert A. Simon, The American Economic Review, Vol. 49, no. 3, 1959.pp. 253-283.

5. Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy. / Electronic resource / http://wikisum.com/w/Downs:_An_economic_theory_of_democracy (accessed 11/10/2017).

6. Locke's psychological theory of personal identity, JeffSpeaks, 2006.

We constantly have to make choices and decisions. Sometimes these issues are less important - "Should I take an umbrella with me to work", sometimes more important - "Is it worth investing $ 100 million in a joint venture." Usually people in such cases say: “I have a PROBLEM. I don't know what to do in this situation." But each problem is a special form of the problem, the solution of which is influenced by many factors.

There is a large number various kinds decisions ranging from very specific to overly vague, forced to optional. Often there is more than one solution that can be considered correct. In addition, there is a difference between a correct and an effective solution. And the choice remains - what decision to make and how to implement it.

Ways to find an expedient and effective solution

As a rule, the majority of decisions are made based on the experience and knowledge of the leader. But in order to make decisions in a constantly changing environment, only experience is not enough. And in a situation with new circumstances, it is necessary to master the technologies of acceptance effective solutions.

In our country, the bulk of small and medium-sized businesses work in the old fashioned way, relying on the experience of previous years. Of course, many have been in business for five or ten years already, with the passage of time new experience has been gained, but the higher the level of business, sales volumes, and the size of the serviced segment in the market, the higher the cost of each managerial mistake.

What is the solution

Classic decision making process:

• Define a goal.
• Collect the necessary information.
• Develop possible solutions.
• Make a decision by choosing the best option.
• Implement the solution, evaluating its effectiveness along the way.

The decision is the choice the best option of the available alternatives which is based on the choice between "right" and "wrong".

Most books that describe the process of making a decision tell you to start by looking for facts. But seasoned leaders know to start with opinions. Because the decision is, first of all, a judgment (opinion). And the right decision is based on a correct understanding of the situation, which is made up of various opinions.

So, the starting point in decision making is unverified opinions. What to do next? Opinions should not be doubted, they should be tested. It is then possible to discover which of these opinions are quite reasonable and worthy of further consideration, and which should be discarded as having failed the test of reality. By the way, competent leaders stimulate the process of generating opinions in the team, they strive to ensure that employees who express their opinion take responsibility for checking it.

Remember that traditionally most people take their view of things as the only possible starting point. An experienced manager knows that any opinion expressed contains a rational grain and must be heeded with due attention. But before making a final decision, it is desirable to organize a debate, an exchange of views.

We need not just the right solution, but an effective solution

Suppose we have a problem - it is necessary to improve some quality of a certain product. Using already known methods, we will be able to get an improvement in the “desired quality” - but at the same time, the other will unacceptably deteriorate. important quality". How to find such an answer, in which both "necessary" and "important" will be combined without loss?

Usually, such a problem is always solved by the method of compromise (optimization, finding the golden mean): we partially worsen the “necessary”, but then the “important” worsens less. The solution will be correct, but inefficient.

But, you should always strive to find not just a solution, but an effective solution.

Effective Solutions are almost always characterized by simplicity at every level, from workflow to general administration, in such cases, bewilderment is often caused - “Why didn’t you guess about this before?”

Basic requirements for an effective solution

In order to be effective, that is, to achieve the goals set, the solution must satisfy a number of requirements:

• the decision must be justified;
• the solution must be real, that is, it can be implemented in practice with a reasonable amount of resources and time;
• it is desirable that a complex solution can be sequentially decomposed into simple ones;
• the decision must be timely, that is, taken at the moment when its execution is especially expedient;
• the solution should be flexible: take into account the possibility of changing the algorithm when conditions change;
• the solution should bring maximum benefit;
• The decision must provide for control over its implementation.

Algorithm for making an effective decision

So, the company has a problem. A problem is a critical discrepancy between the desired and actual state. There are two kinds of problems:

• when the set goals are not achieved;
• when there is a potential opportunity (for example, some event).

Consider an algorithm for effectively solving the problem that has arisen. This algorithm was developed by American researchers L. Plunkett and G. Hale, and is based on a generalization of the experience of making managerial decisions of a significant number of successful enterprises. It is as follows:

Determining the purpose and direction of solving the problem

At this stage, a goal is set that meets all necessary requirements: it is clear and understandable to the performers, it is measurable by quantitative methods, it has a deadline for implementation and is consistent with the global goal of the entire enterprise.

Setting decision criteria

It is desirable that the selected indicators cover as fully as possible best conditions realization of the set goal.

Setting limits

Constraints (usually figures of maximum cost and time, minimum performance, legality, ethical considerations, intense competition) determine the range of choice in decision making.

Development of alternatives

Alternatives are key components of an effective solution. The effectiveness of a decision is largely determined by how many alternative options will be considered. It is desirable to identify all possible options, including the possibility of inaction. The absence of alternative options indicates either a lack of awareness or a lack of time to check this decision. Both increase the likelihood of error in decision making. Remember that the alternatives must:

• mutually exclude each other;
• assume maximum differences according to the chosen criteria and restrictions;
• be equally likely.

Comparison of alternatives

For the successful selection of a certain alternative, it is necessary that all solutions be brought into a comparable form according to various factors: for example, time, quality of the object, expectation of material benefits, attraction additional information. At the same time, the comparability of alternative options is subject to a number of rules:

• the number of alternatives must be at least three;
• the most recent option should be taken as the baseline solution;
• alternatives should display the full range of possibilities.

Risk assessment

The effectiveness of the choice is influenced not only by the assessment of the alternative according to the main criteria, but also by the acceptable degree of risk. The concept of "risk" is not used in the sense of danger, but refers to the level of certainty with which one can predict the outcome. Risk assessment is an assessment of the outcome of an event in terms of the adverse consequences of this event for its participants.

The risk is divided into types: economic, social, political, environmental, financial, etc. From the point of view of the nature of the manifestation of risk, systematic and random risks are distinguished. Systematic risk is usually associated professional activity participants and is characterized by a high probability of occurrence. Random risk is caused by a unique set of circumstances and its probability is much less, but the consequences of random risk can be much more dangerous. The main risk parameters are:

• the amount of possible damage resulting from the event;
• the likelihood of the event occurring;
• possible costs associated with the elimination of the consequences of the event.

Choosing an alternative

When choosing the best alternative, the following rules should be followed:

• the alternative that best meets the selected criteria and restrictions is selected;
• the alternative that has the optimal balance between profitability and risk is chosen;
• the alternative that has received the most complete agreement of the experts is selected.

The key property of an effective solution is the mandatory availability of alternatives that ensure the expediency and awareness of their free choice.

Let's assume that everything is ready for a decision. All conditions are thought out, alternatives are explored, benefits are weighed. Here the choice of course of action seems obvious, since it is at this stage that the decision is almost ready. But, at the same time, it is at this stage that most decisions are denied. Suddenly it turns out that it can be unpleasant, unpopular or difficult. And it becomes obvious that the decision requires not only analysis, but also great courage. But the fact that the right decision is associated with some negative points, should not be a reason for refusing it.

What determines the quality of the solution

The quality of the solution largely determines final result and efficiency of the task. The quality of the solution depends on a number of factors:

• the quality of the initial information (its reliability, sufficiency, error-proofing, form of submission);
• the nature of the decision being made - optimal or rational;
• timeliness of decisions made;
• qualifications of personnel involved in the development, decision-making and organization of their implementation.

Action and inaction (refusal to act)

Often you have to make a decision only because inaction can only worsen the situation. The same applies to favorable opportunities. Opportunity only exists for a limited time, and if it is not seized in time, it will disappear. Is it necessary to act in such cases, because action can lead to radical changes? In such cases, experts advise to conduct a comparative analysis of the risk associated with action and the risk of inaction. There is no formula for the correct solution. But there are rules that make it easier to make decisions in specific cases:

• act if, all things considered, the benefits far outweigh the costs and risks;
• you can act or not act, but you cannot evade and you cannot limit yourself to half-hearted solutions.

An experienced worker knows these rules and will never go halfway and will not take "half action." This is almost always a losing proposition.

But what about intuition?

Decisions can be not only justified, made on the basis of information analysis and multivariate calculation, but also intuitive. This usually happens when the factors to be considered are completely new and difficult to analyze because it is not possible to obtain sufficiently convincing information. Another case is when decisions are made in rapidly changing circumstances or when there is an acute shortage of time. Faced with this kind of uncertainty, the entrepreneur has two options:

• try to get more information;
• make a decision in accordance with logical conclusions based on past experience and knowledge, trust intuition.

There are times when a decision made intuitively or instinctively turns out to be more correct than a decision made through much thought. In extreme situations, when you need to react as soon as possible, the subconscious mind is able to offer the best way out. Trust your intuition and subconscious, but remember that although they save time and effort, they still contain a certain probability of errors.

Command usage

The order in which decisions are made may differ depending on the importance of the problem, the style of the leader, the specific situation, and so on. The leader can:

• Make a decision on his own, based on the information he has and relying on personal experience.
• Get the necessary information from subordinates and make an independent decision based on this information.
• Conduct individual consultations with some subordinates, but do not require them to formulate a consensus.
• Discuss the problem with a group of subordinates joint development and evaluate alternative solutions to the problem and decide on the most supported solution.
• Delegate the rights to solve the problem to the working group, before which the task is set and restrictions are stipulated. The leader does not take part in the work of this group, agreeing in advance to support the collectively developed decision.

The Six Thinking Hats Method (Edward de Bono Method) for Decision Making and Situation Assessment

The participants in the discussion alternately put on six different-colored hats and try to think in unison:

• wearing a white hat, collect additional information;
• putting on a red hat, describe their emotional attitude;
• putting on the yellow hat of an optimist, they reveal positive aspects;
• putting on a black hat of a pessimist, they reveal the negative sides;
• put on a green hat, evaluate growth prospects;
• wearing a blue hat, they discuss the process of implementing a new idea.

For the survival and success of the company in the new rapidly changing economy, the ability of the manager to delegate authority is of great importance. After all, the amount of information that needs to be processed to develop effective management decisions is often too large. The more specific the problem, the less often the leader has to deal with it, the less competent his solution may be. Accordingly, a dilemma arises: either to spend a lot of time (one’s own and subordinates) on getting into the course of the problem (and this will reduce the effectiveness of the decision being made), or to make a quick decision (and this is fraught with a high probability of error). But no leader knows the specific situation better than the person responsible for the relevant area of ​​work. Therefore, in order to make specific decisions, it is advisable to involve those employees who are familiar with the problem posed and will be able to give certain recommendations in solving it.

It has been found that group decisions are very effective provided that working group is small in composition and the participants have the opportunity to discuss options for solutions. At the same time, the value of a decision made by a group is higher and its competence is greater than that of a decision made alone.

Practice shows that the least effective decisions are made at a level exceeding necessary competence. These include decisions that go through a complex path of coordination from top to bottom. Remember:

• The less important the problem, the lower the effectiveness of its solution at the level of the head of the institution.
• The more small problems are solved at the level of the head of the institution, the more, ultimately, erroneous decisions he makes.

Today, the creation of competitive products is not only a matter of capital, but also a matter of skill of the management team. Recently, the criteria for competence have changed significantly. More recently, the most important virtues of a leader were knowledge of all the work of the lower level. Therefore, it was welcomed when the leader went through the entire ladder of the service hierarchy in sequence. However, the skills of today are not always based on the skills of yesterday. Gradually, the market fills up, competition intensifies, working conditions become tougher, and mistakes in decision-making become more and more expensive. And soon a moment may come when they will begin to lose in the competitive struggle only because they do not own modern decision-making technologies. Therefore, it is worth learning this today so as not to be mistaken tomorrow.

Tatyana Suzdaltseva

Rational Decisions are those that are justified by an objective analytical process. They have certain stages.

1) Problem Diagnosis. This is the first step, i.e. it is the definition or diagnosis of the problem. A problem is considered to be a situation where the set goals are not achieved.

It is difficult to fully define the problem conceived, since all parts of the organization are interconnected. As they say, defining a problem correctly is half solving it, but this is difficult to apply to organizational decisions. As a result, diagnosing a problem in itself often becomes a multi-step procedure with intermediate decisions.

The first phase in diagnosing a complex problem is recognizing and identifying symptoms of difficulty . The concept of "symptom" is used here in a completely medical sense. Some common symptoms of organizational sickness are low profits, sales, productivity, and quality, excessive costs, multiple organizational conflicts, and high employee turnover. However, just as a headache can be a symptom of overwork or a brain tumor, a common symptom such as poor profitability is due to many factors. Therefore, it is generally prudent to avoid immediate action to eliminate the symptom, which some managers tend to do. The leader must delve deeply into the essence of the matter to identify the causes of the inefficiency of the organization. A common mistake some managers make is the habit of berating workers for low productivity and profits: they fail to see other possible causes, such as the impact of material and overhead costs, etc. As a result, companies needlessly invest in productivity plans and lay off workers.

To identify the causes of the problem, it is necessary to collect and analyze the required internal and external (relative to the organization) information. Such information can be collected on the basis of formal methods, using, for example, market analysis outside the organization, and inside it - computer analysis of financial statements, interviews, inviting management consultants or employee surveys. Information can also be collected informally, by talking about the situation and making personal observations.

However, increasing the amount of information does not necessarily improve the quality of the solution. Therefore, in the course of observations, it is important to see the differences between relevant and irrelevant information and be able to separate one from the other. Relevant information is data relating only to a particular problem, person, purpose, and period of time.

2) Formulation of constraints and decision criteria. When a manager diagnoses a problem in order to make a decision, he must be aware of what exactly can be done with it. Corrective action limits limit decision making.

Some general limitations are the inadequacy of funds; insufficient number of employees with the required qualifications and experience; inability to procure resources for reasonable prices; the need for technology that has not yet been developed or is too expensive; exceptionally intense competition; laws and ethical considerations. As a rule, for large organization there are fewer restrictions than for a minor or many difficulties.

A significant constraint on all managerial decisions, although sometimes completely removable, is the narrowing of the powers of all members of the organization determined by top management.

In addition to identifying constraints, the manager needs to define the standards by which alternative choices are to be judged. These standards are called decision criteria. For example, when making a decision to buy a car, you can focus on the criterion of cost - no more than $ 10,000, efficiency - at least 20 km per liter of gasoline, capacity - five adults at a time, attractiveness and good performance in terms of service.

3) Definition of alternatives– formulation of a set of alternative solutions to the problem. It must be borne in mind that considering a very large number of alternatives, even if they are all realistic, often leads to confusion. Therefore, the leader tends to limit the number of options for serious consideration to just a few alternatives that seem to be the most desirable.

Managers understand that finding the best solution is too time-consuming, costly, or difficult. Instead, they choose a solution that will solve the problem.

The possibility of inactivity can also be considered as an alternative.

Returning to our car example, now you are faced with a choice of several models that you think meet your criteria. Having selected alternatives, it is necessary to evaluate them.

4) Evaluation of alternatives. Research shows that both the quantity and quality of alternative ideas increase when the initial idea generation is separated from the evaluation of the final idea. This means that only after listing all the ideas should one proceed to evaluate each alternative.

At this stage, difficulties can arise, since it is impossible to compare things if they are not of the same type.

In the car example, all criteria can be expressed in points on a scale from 1 to 5 in relation to factors of both quantitative and qualitative nature. The least expensive car will receive a score of 5 and the most expensive will receive a score of 1, and so on, including economy and other requirements. It is likely that some of these criteria are more important than others. For example, you might consider visual appeal to be twice as important as price. If so, you should "weigh" your choice by multiplying by 2 points of visual attractiveness. Similarly, if your maintainability score is only 2/3 of the cost, multiply by 2/3 the serviceability score. Having passed through this procedure each criterion, you should add up the results for each model. The vehicle with the highest overall score will be your obvious choice.

5) Choosing an alternative. If the problem has been correctly identified and alternative solutions have been carefully weighed and evaluated, it is relatively easy to make a choice, that is, to make a decision. However, if the problem is complex and many trade-offs have to be taken into account, or if information and analysis are subjective, it may happen that no alternative will the best choice. In this case, good judgment and experience play a major role.

Although it is ideal for a manager to achieve an optimal solution, the manager, as a rule, does not dream of such in practice. Researcher Herbert Simon points out that when solving a problem, the leader tends to behave in what he calls "satisfying" rather than "maximizing."

6) Implementation. The process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative. To solve a problem or capitalize on an existing opportunity, the solution must be implemented. Recognition of a solution is seldom automatic, however, even if it is clearly a good one.

More often than not, a manager has to convince other people in the organization of the correctness of his point of view, and the approach like “I am the boss, you are a fool” today, in the world of educated people, as a rule, does not work.

The chances of effective implementation increase significantly when the people involved have contributed to the decision and sincerely believe in what they are doing. However, there are situations when the participation of employees in decision-making will not be effective in every situation.

7) Feedback . Another phase that enters the process of making a managerial decision and begins after the decision has taken effect is the establishment of feedback. Feedback, i.e. the receipt of data about what happened before and after the implementation of the decision - allows the manager to correct it, while the organization has not yet suffered significant damage.

Our consideration of the stages of rational problem solving should serve as recommendations that can help you make better decisions as recommendations.