Igor Berezin - President of the NP Guild of Marketers; certified expert in marketing research and market analysis; Chairman of the Board of Directors of several printing companies; author of corporate, public and academic (for MBA programs) seminars, 15 monographs and more than 500 articles, reviews and analytical materials on various areas of marketing development in Russia.
Igor Stanislavovich, please tell us about how your professional career was built?
I graduated from the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University. Lomonosov with a degree in Economic Planning and Demography. This was in 1991. The place of my undergraduate internship was the State Planning Committee of the USSR, which in the same year ceased to exist together with the Soviet Union.
Shortly before that, at the end of 1990, I came across Philip Kotler's book "Fundamentals of Marketing", which was published in our country in a huge circulation. Many older people remember this gray "brick" of 700 pages, in which a respected American professor talked about what marketing is. Then I thought about the fact that the functions that were assumed by the planned regulatory bodies in the USSR, in the conditions of a market economy, should be performed by specialists in interaction with the market. Namely, marketers.
In 1992, my supervisor was approached by his acquaintances with a request to conduct a study of the market for deep-frozen products. That same year, I was invited to a small private university to read the history of economics and the basics of marketing. In this university, it was believed that one should study according to one's textbooks. But there was no relevant business literature then, the institute published lectures of its teachers in the form educational material for students. So I wrote my first book on the history of economics, and then another, called Marketing Today. It came out in 1996 and brought together everything I knew about marketing back then in 125 pages. Working in this university and in others, in parallel I dealt with issues marketing research, consulting and went further along this line.
And in 2001, my colleagues and I created the "Marketers Guild" - non-commercial partnership, which I have been heading for the sixteenth year.
What professional and human qualities should a successful marketing director have?
Before becoming a marketing director, you need to go through several steps. 20-25 years ago, 20-year-olds appointed themselves marketing directors and tried to do something right off the bat. Someone succeeded, and today they are equal to them, but someone did not succeed, and their names and their companies have already been forgotten.
Today the situation has become more intelligible. Starting a career, of course, is not necessary from the position of marketing director, and from an assistant, trainee in a marketing department or service - production, trade or service company. Or a company that works in the field of marketing services - a consulting, branding company, research agency, etc.
At the beginning of a career, the requirements are minimal- general erudition, basic education, computer skills, programs like Excel and so on, knowledge of Russian and mathematics at least as part of an advanced arithmetic course are highly desirable. No special skills are required, they can be acquired in the first two years.
Of course, it is better to go to work in your specialty from the 3-4th year of the institute studying in the profile - marketing, management, economic disciplines.
How important is it for a marketer to have a special professional education?
Education is desirable. As Oscar Wilde said, it's the best thing in the world, if only it High Quality. In all other cases it is useless. A good education combines a humanitarian basis and marketing, which is not itself a science, but is powered by three worthy scientific academic disciplines. First of all, this economic theory. If a marketer wants to grow into a marketing director, it will not be possible to do without an acquaintance with economic theory, the theory of the firm, costs, supply and demand, and other things. And it is better, of course, to get this base in a good university - at the Faculty of Economics, the Faculty of Management, Marketing, and so on.
The second science that feeds marketing is sociology. The third is psychology. These disciplines can be "acquired" by various advanced training courses, and so on. Well, and, of course, you need to learn how to use specialized programs. It is impossible to learn them for the future, they change, new ones appear, but it is necessary to acquire the skill to learn and use these programs.
Are the requirements for the profession of a marketer changing with the development of digital, social media?
I'll start with the requirements in general. Now they are in the formation stage. The Guild of Marketers this summer submitted an application to the Ministry of Labor and designated itself as a developer professional standard for marketing. The first version of the draft standard is currently being discussed and is available on the Guild's website. There have been several rounds of public comment in various formats, and this will continue. Requirements will be formed, which, in our opinion, should be included in the professional standard.
As for social media, this is one of the many tools of a marketer that he must be able to use, he must understand when and how he may need it, what resources it will require, what “exhaust” it can give, etc.
But social networks do not replace everything that has been developed over the previous 50-70 years, but only supplement in some part. Which one depends on the nature of the business. For those who do, for example, distance learning, hosting webinars and so on, the ability to work with social media plays a fairly significant role. And for those who manufacture or sell heavy excavators, in general, the question is quite controversial - how much and to what extent they need a presence in social networks.
What are your predictions - how will the marketing profession be transformed in the next few years?
By definition, the marketing profession is the area responsible for the interaction between the company and the market. Today we are undergoing very serious transformations in the understanding of how this interaction should be carried out. If in the 1990s the liberal concept prevailed, saying that the market itself would regulate everything, and there would be a continuous market everywhere, now, obviously, the concept has changed. About 70% of the economy is directly or indirectly controlled by the state - through state-owned companies and formally private, but let's say, large Russian companies that are very loyal to the public sector. The role of regulation related to the quality of goods and services, security issues, sustainable development has significantly increased, and, of course, all this must be taken into account.
But as long as the economy is of a market nature, as long as we are not talking about restoring the planned economy of the Soviet type, there will be a need for those people who link the market and companies. Because ultimately the company's profit is in the market. Only the consumer's check, accepted by the bank, is the source of the company's profit, said 20th century management guru Peter Drucker. Everything else is expenses. And we should not forget that, one way or another, you will always have to deal with the market. Even the public sector tries to play by market rules. Procurement is carried out through tenders, which are allowed, among other things, small and medium-sized businesses, even trying to organize some preferences for small businesses. There is a set of measures aimed at protecting Russian market. This whole story, of course, is connected with the fact that the country's leadership understands that without significant elements of a market economy, competition, there will be no economic growth in the country.
Moreover, our management is more market-oriented than many managers of medium and big business. For a year and a half, the state has been persistently urging medium and small businesses to engage not only in import substitution, but also in the export component. The idea that in order to be successful, you need to international markets, gradually begins to take root in the masses of entrepreneurs. Especially for those who see positive cases. If the company had at least a small export, 10-15% of the sales volume, it helped a lot at a time when the exchange rate of the national currency fell, inflation jumped, the purchasing power of the population fell - companies increased exports to 30-50%, received a currency that has risen in price, and were able to pass this period quite painlessly. Or, say, not as painful as those companies that focused exclusively on the domestic market, which has been shrinking for the third year in a row and will continue to shrink for some more time.
What books on marketing today can be recommended to professionals?
One of the tasks of the Guild of Marketers is to collect best practices, inform about what is new and interesting.
We regularly work to determine best books in Marketing for the past year by publishing the list on our website. Also every 2-3 years we update the list of "The 50 Best Marketing Books of the Decade". The top 50 for 2005-2015 is now available. Books are distributed in several areas - strategic marketing, textbooks, marketing research, branding issues, etc.
There are leading experts in marketing, such as Philip Kotler, Jack Trout - acquaintance with their work will be very useful to all specialists working in marketing. But, of course, the matter is not limited to these two surnames, the list is quite large. There are a number of professionals in Russia, these are: Igor Mann, Nicholas Corot, Anton Bulanov, Svetlana Karpova, Dmitry Tyurin, Irina Skorobogatykh - I can continue this list for a very long time.
What can you advise young professionals who have chosen a job related to marketing?
First advice. Strengthen the theoretical base and foundations— statistics and special applied programs, economic theory, sociology and psychology. Without this foundation, everything else will be unsteady and vague. Fashion trends come and go, but economic statistics, theoretical economics already 200 years old, and enough for your lifetime. For another 50 years, all this will be quite possible to use.
The second is less social networks and other forms of useless pastime. Social networks- this is a convenient way to communicate with those whom you already know, with whom you have offline contact, but they are practically useless in terms of acquiring some new knowledge, skills, abilities, and absorb an incredible amount of time.
And the third tip is to study your chosen industry. or a field of activity with a fairly broad scope. Today it is obvious that a career of the Soviet or Japanese type, when a person comes to a company at the age of 20 as an intern, goes through all the steps to vice president or head of department and goes on a well-deserved rest in the same company is already in the past. You need to be ready to change the field of activity, in order to apply your skills, abilities and energy somewhere else. Especially for those who are determined to pursue a managerial career. Yes, probably, an analyst, a database specialist can hold his position for quite a long time. But if a person is determined to grow as a leader, to become a marketing director in a large company, then he will most likely have to change more than one or five jobs. And for this you need to have a fairly broad outlook - both professionally and personally.
Interviewed by Maria Kigel
Igor Berezin Deintellectualization of the economy
From 2005 to 2012 share intellectual services in Russian GDP has fallen by almost a third, and without meaningful government policy and support, this sector is likely to continue to decline in relative terms in the coming years.
This article uses the results of the project "Monitoring of the KIBS sector in Russia", carried out within the framework of the Program fundamental research NRU HSE in 2007-2012 The research is carried out by the Institute statistical studies and the knowledge economy of the National Research University Higher School of Economics together with the Romir research holding.
In the course of the study, qualitative (expert panels, individual interviews with experts) and quantitative (surveys of producers and consumers of knowledge services) studies are conducted annually; as well as the collection and analysis of available secondary information on individual markets/segments of the KIBS sector.
to the KIBS sector within this project were assigned:
Marketing services;
Engineering;
IT services;
Services in the field of recruitment and personnel management;
Services in the field of financial intermediation;
Real estate management services (development);
Legal services.
The common characteristics of these ten industries and segments of knowledge services in general are:
A high share of the cost of labor and staff training in the total cost of producing these services;
Long period of adaptation of young specialists in a new place of work and the need for additional training at the workplace;
The need for close cooperation between the customer and the service provider (co-production) throughout the entire period of performance of work.
Preliminary remarks
The period under review (2005-2012), as will be shown below, is clearly divided into three stages, differing both in terms of growth rates and nature:
- "Extensive growth" (2005-2008) with nominal rates close to, and sometimes exceeding, nominal GDP growth rates. During this period, over-optimistic expectations were formed that the knowledge services sector would soon achieve a share of 7-8% and even 10% of GDP (as in the most developed countries of the West). These expectations were fueled by rhetoric from senior officials. But not by any real actions or initiatives.
- "Shock reduction" (2009), when individual segments of the market of intellectual services decreased by 2-3 times, and the entire sector - by more than a quarter. While the decline in real GDP was 8%, industrial production- 12%; and in nominal terms, due to high inflation, it turned out to be insignificant at all.
- "Depressive recovery" (2010-2012) with nominal growth rates slightly lower than GDP growth rates and, accordingly, a gradual decrease in the total "weight" of the knowledge services sector.
Since during all eight of the surveyed years there was very high inflation both in the economy as a whole, and "cost inflation" directly in the knowledge services sector, associated primarily with the growth of wages (as was shown during the study, the share of wages labor, including recruitment and training of personnel and payroll taxes, account for about 50% of all "production costs" in the knowledge services sector, and in certain segments of this sector - for example, marketing services, audit, IT consulting - may account for 60- 70% of all costs), then for a correct understanding of the issue, it is necessary to look at the estimates of the volumes of the markets for intellectual services in the context of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators (Table 1).
First of all, it should be noted that in 2012 Russia's GDP grew in real physical terms by 25% (index = 125) compared to 2005. If it weren't for the "failure" of 2009, GDP growth could have reached 35-40% in real terms over seven years.
At the same time, in nominal terms (in Russian rubles), Russia's gross domestic product in 2012 grew by 187% (by 2.87 times) compared to 2005 and exceeded 62 trillion rubles.
Since the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar remained “conditionally stable” for almost the entire period of this period (from 2005 to mid-2008, the ruble exchange rate rose quite smoothly against the US dollar, from the level of 28.5-29 rubles/USD to the level of 24-24.5 rubles/dollar, from autumn 2008 to February 2009 the ruble exchange rate fell to 35-36 rubles/dollar, after which the ruble 29 rubles/dollar; the correction in the summer of 2012 brought the value of the exchange rate into the range of 30-33 rubles/dollar, in which it remained until the fall of 2013), the nominal growth in US dollars turned out to be quite impressive - by 166% (in 2.66 times) over seven years.
Other macroeconomic indicators increased in a comparable way. In particular, the volume of investments in fixed capital increased in 2012 compared to 2005 by 3.5 times. turnover retail in 2012 exceeded the same indicator in 2005 exactly three times. Medium wage over these seven years, it also tripled and exceeded 26.5 thousand rubles a month. In terms of the average quarterly exchange rate of the Central Bank of Russia, the average salary in 2012 amounted to 865 US dollars, which is 2.8 times higher than in 2005.
Thus, in order to increase its share in GDP, a separate segment of the knowledge-based services sector requires that the nominal value growth in this segment for the period from 2005 to 2012 exceed 185% in rubles, or 165% in US dollars. As will be shown below, only two of the ten segments of the KIBS sector, namely IT solution services and financial intermediation services, were able to meet this challenge.
The rest of the segments, as well as the knowledge-based services sector as a whole, showed growth rates significantly inferior to the nominal GDP growth rates.
Assessing the dynamics of the KIBS sector
According to estimates obtained during the study, the total volume of sales of services in the sector exactly doubled over this period - from 836 billion rubles in 2005 to 1658 billion rubles in 2012 (Table 2).
(Of course, since we are talking about an expert assessment of the value of the market, which have a rather large error and wide ranges, it would be more correct to speak in terms of ranges. -2 trillion rubles". But since such formulations are very cumbersome and make calculations very difficult, we have allowed ourselves to simplify linguistic constructions. The necessary explanations regarding the ranges of estimates, sources of estimates, their accuracy and reliability will be given below, in the relevant sections.)
But, considering that the GDP during this period increased by 2.87 times, and the retail trade turnover - exactly three times, the share of the contribution of the knowledge-based services sector in GDP decreased: from 3.85% in 2005 (in 2007 it was the historical maximum of this ratio is 4.1%) to 2.96% in 2009 and 2010. and up to 2.75-2.65% in 2011-2012.
Between 2005 and 2007, the knowledge-based services markets grew at a rate that outpaced nominal GDP growth, albeit marginally. Accordingly, the contribution of the knowledge-based services sector to GDP slightly increased.
Since, according to our estimates, the share of people employed in the knowledge-based services sector did not exceed 1% of those employed in the country's economy, a fourfold excess of the sector's share in GDP over the share in total employment indicated that the sector has high performance(due to the use of qualified personnel and modern technologies). This allowed him to offer employees in the sector significantly more high level wages (compared with the manufacturing industry, the sphere household services and the social sector) and therefore attract qualified professionals, retain them by maintaining motivation, invest in training and professional development of employees.
The outpacing growth of the knowledge services sector took place without any pronounced influence or assistance from the state - the government, state corporations, development institutions, etc. The main drivers of growth during this period were: general economic growth in our country; growth in domestic demand for knowledge-based services on the part of business (the level of domestic demand in 2001-2004 can be characterized as very low, and high growth rates were partly explained by the effect of a "low start" and catch-up development); relatively favorable for medium and small companies(most KIBS firms are SMEs) "business climate" including taxation, administration, control and access to investment regimes, including bank lending.
It is obvious that the situation in the knowledge-based services sector deteriorated sharply in 2009 - and this, in general, does not cause much surprise: a crisis is a crisis. However, it should be noted that the KIBS sector during the crisis suffered multiple losses compared to the manufacturing, financial and trade sectors.
Unlike large, "backbone" economic entities(large manufacturing companies, banks, etc.) KIBS companies did not receive any government support, as did medium-sized companies from other sectors. Moreover, the business environment for such companies has deteriorated both in absolute and relative terms. The consequences of tightening administrative regimes (registration, re-registration, reporting requirements, etc.), the increase in tax deductions from the payroll fund (payroll), and a sharp reduction in the ability to attract financing turned out to be especially difficult for companies in the knowledge-based services sector.
An increase in payroll deductions from 26 to 34% (subsequently adjusted to 30%), and wages, as has been repeatedly mentioned here, are the main item of costs for the production of intellectual services, which can account for from 40% to 70% of all costs, along with with a sharp decline in demand (and revenue) has created a situation of classic "price scissors" in the sector. The result is a reduction in the volume of production of intellectual services, varying from 25% to 2.5 times in various sectors.
The situation continued to worsen relatively in the period 2010-2012, when, contrary to expectations, there was no post-crisis recovery in most of the knowledge-based services markets. The only exception is the IT services market, and partly the market for financial intermediation services (mainly due to the increase in the scale of funds under management and the anti-crisis pumping of the financial sector with funds from reserve funds and the state budget).
The main reasons for the sluggish recovery in the knowledge-based services markets are the stagnation of demand from Russian business, the exorbitantly high cost of borrowed resources, and the lack of development ideas. In the crisis and post-crisis period, the influence of the state on the economy has increased significantly for both objective (state support for systemically important enterprises and banks, fulfillment of social obligations) and subjective reasons. Large Russian business (especially those that received state support and/or being under direct or indirect state control) quickly recognized the leading and guiding role of the state and took a passive position. Expecting from the state, if not direct instructions, then at least guidelines for further development. With regard to the sector of intellectual services, there were no such instructions, recommendations, guidelines. And the demand for intellectual services has become even more than before, formed according to the residual principle.
Worst of all (within the sector of intellectual services) in the seven-year period under review, the markets of services in the field of personnel management (in 2012 it was only possible to return to the nominal volumes of 2005), engineering (nominal growth by 2005 within 20%), design (growth in within 50%) and development (growth within 75%). With the overall nominal growth of the sector as a whole twice.
The markets of services in the field of IT (by 3.25 times), financial intermediation (by 2.85 times), marketing services (by 2.7 times due to the emergence of new segments), legal services (in 2.5 times) and audit (2.4 times). Only the advertising services market grew at a rate comparable to the growth rate of the sector as a whole.
Due to the difference in the growth rates of various markets in the KIBS sector, the shares - the contribution of individual markets to the KIBS sector - have changed over the seven years under review (Table 3).
The share of engineering has significantly decreased, which in 2005 accounted for more than 30% of the entire sector of intellectual services, and in 2012 it does not exceed 20%.
The share of services in the field of personnel management also decreased significantly. True, it was only 1.6% in 2005, but by 2012 it had fallen below 1%.
The share of services in the field of design also decreased markedly. It was also small - 1.6% in 2005, in 2012 - 1.3%.
The share of development decreased slightly - from 13.8% in 2005 to 12.4% in 2012.
The advertising market share has not undergone significant changes (17.3% in 2005 and 17.6% in 2012).
Shares increased in five segments: marketing services from 6.3% to 8.4%; IT - from 7.8% to 12.2%; for financial intermediation from 10% to 15%; for legal services - from 7.2% to 9.4%; for audit services - from 3.8% to 4.8%.
Placement of advertising materials on media: in printed publications(press), on radio and television broadcasts, in cinemas (before screenings), on buildings, structures, structures, Vehicle ah etc. ( outdoor advertising), in the Internet;
Media planning and control.
Only the amount of expenses associated with the placement of advertising in the means of its distribution can be reasonably quantified. An expert assessment of the costs associated with the creation of advertising materials and media planning showed that both of these items do not exceed 7-12% of the costs associated with the distribution of advertising messages in the media. In addition, often the costs of media planning and the creation of advertising materials are included in the total costs of advertising distribution (directly or indirectly), since they are carried out by the same market entities (large full-cycle advertising agencies).
AKAR (Formerly - RARA - Russian association advertising agencies) has been making its estimates since 2000 based on a comparison of data received from advertisers and advertisers. Both those and others (the largest, controlling more than 90% advertising budgets in Russia) are members of the ACAR.
At the end of February 2012, ACAR summed up the results of 2011 in the market of advertising and marketing services. At first glance, they seem very optimistic. According to ACAR and TNS, the total number of advertisers in Russia in 2011 increased by 7% compared to 2010 and amounted to 68,000 companies and organizations.
The total amount of advertising expenses (in distribution media) amounted to 263.4 billion rubles. Compared to 2010, advertising spending (and advertising industry revenues) increased by more than 20%, significantly outpacing not only consumer market inflation (6-8%), but also media inflation (10-15%). Compared to the best year so far in 2008, advertising expenses increased by 4% in rubles. It would seem that everything is fine (graph 1)?
But even the first, most superficial reflections show that this is not so. And it's not just that 253 billion rubles in 2008 was just over $10 billion, while 263 billion rubles in 2011 is just under $9 billion (Table 4). Although this is also not very pleasant. This suggests that Russia's share in the total volume of the global advertising market, which over these three years has nominally (in dollars) grown by 5%, has decreased. Moreover, it decreased quite noticeably - from 2.25% to 1.85%. And Russia has not yet managed to return to the top ten largest advertising markets in the world, which it left in 2009. What should be a properly perceived alarm signal for the leadership of the country, which claims to be in the top five largest economies in the world: "Not everything is in order in our advertising kingdom!"
Worse another. In 2008, spending on advertising in the media was 0.61% of Russian GDP, while in 2011 it was 0.48%. In other words, the share of advertising in GDP has decreased by more than 20% in three years. And this, in turn, suggests that over these three years the Russian economy has become less "market-oriented." After all, advertising is necessary for companies operating in conditions market competition and offering a differentiated product. And crude oil and gasoline A95 do not need advertising - just like infrastructure projects, government procurement, defense enterprises, etc. It needs an administrative resource.
Even worse, all nominal growth advertising expenses"gone to the internet" Within three years this distribution medium has tripled its share and volume in the market of advertising distribution media (by 200%!) and by the end of 2011 came in second place, overtaking the press (Table 5). In terms of the share of the Internet in total advertising spending (15.7%), Russia significantly outperformed all other major economies except China (17%). Even in the United States, where more than 80% of the population regularly use the Internet, the share of this advertising medium does not exceed 13%. By the way, the volume of online advertising in the United States exceeded the volume of print advertising only in 2010. In India and Brazil, the share of online advertising does not exceed 5%.
But the volume of advertising in the press over three years has decreased by almost 12 billion rubles (-22.5%), and the share of this medium has decreased from more than 20% in 2008 to 15% in 2011. Loses its position and outdoor advertising. For three years, its volume has decreased by almost 8 billion rubles (-18.5%), and its share - from 16.5% to 13%.
Only television advertising, despite all the talk about the decline in the popularity of this media, the departure of the audience to the Internet, the decrease in efficiency, etc., continues to hold 50% of the advertising market in distribution media - like three, like five, like ten years ago . Compared to 2010, the volume of advertising on television increased by 18%, and compared to 2008 - by a symbolic 2.5%.
Marketing services
A clear classification of "marketing services" recognized by the main market participants in Russia has not yet developed. Traditionally, they include:
Services in the field of promotion of goods and services to the end consumer - Consumer Promotion;
Services in the field of promotion of goods and services in trade channels - Trade Promotion. (Sometimes these first two types of services are combined under the name Below the Line - BTL.);
Services for the delivery of advertising messages personally to the consumer (in the mailbox, by e-mail, by phone) - Direct-marketing. Some experts include services of outgoing calls to consumers from call-centers in the market of Direct-marketing services; another part of the experts consider call-center services as a separate segment of the marketing services market. Because of this, the effect of "re-counting" may occur when calculating the volume of the market for services in the segments of call centers and direct marketing. (Some experts include Direct Marketing in BTL, others do not.);
Services in the field of organizing conferences, presentations, exhibitions, shows and other events aimed, among other things, at maintaining relations with target audiences, - Event marketing. (Event marketing is usually included in BTL as well.);
Services in the field of marketing research;
Services in the field of consulting on marketing, market strategies, branding;
Services in the field of maintaining public relations - Public Relations (business PR).
The last three market segments, some experts in the course of our study, proposed to combine into a group called "infocommunication consulting".
Estimates of various segments of the marketing services market are presented in Table 6. It should be borne in mind that they vary greatly in accuracy and reliability. The following segments can be attributed to estimates with the highest accuracy and reliability:
Promotion, the main source of estimates is the Russian Association of Marketing Services (RAMU, formerly RASS - Russian Sales Promotion Association). Estimates the volume of the BTL services market since 2003 using a methodology similar to the RACA, comparing data from leading consumers and service providers);
- "Research", two main sources of assessment: The Marketing Guild - has been assessing the size of the market for marketing research and marketing consulting since 2001 during an annual expert survey, which involves 250-350 experts representing large, medium and small business, as well as researchers and consultants; Organization of market researchers and public opinion(OIROM) - evaluates the volume of the marketing research market in the course of an anonymous survey of 20-30 experts - heads of large and medium-sized research companies;
- "Marketing consulting", estimates of the Guild of Marketers.
Estimates of the market volume in the Direct marketing segment can be attributed to medium accuracy and reliability (the Russian Association of Direct Marketing (RADM) estimated the volume of the Direct Marketing services market in 2003-2009 by expert means. The heads of large companies - service providers acted as experts members of the association). Estimates of the volume of services in the segments "Call-centers", "Business-PR" and "Event-marketing" were obtained exclusively by experts and have low accuracy and reliability.
Design
In the course of a study within the framework of the project "Monitoring the sector of intellectual services in Russia" (NRU HSE - "Romir", 2007-2012), the following segments of the design services market were identified:
Industrial design (some overlap with architectural and engineering design and engineering services);
Print design;
Landscape design;
Interior design;
Web design (partially intersecting with IT services, and partly with services in the field of creating and distributing Internet advertising);
Design - creation of corporate style.
None of the segments of the design market currently has a professional association, union or association that would regularly deal with the issue of assessing the volume and dynamics of its market segment. Based on this, all available estimates of the design market were obtained exclusively by expert means in the course of conducting qualitative research on the KIBS sector (Figure 2, Table 7).
The rapid growth of the design services market continued from the beginning of the 2000s until 2007 inclusive. During this time, estimates of the market volume have grown by an order of magnitude: from 100-150 million US dollars to more than a billion dollars. The share of design services in GDP has also increased rapidly. The ratio between the average estimate of the volume of the design services market (in rubles) and the retail trade turnover has tripled: from less than 0.1% to almost 0.3%.
Already in 2008, growth entered an inertial phase. The nominal growth of 11% (in rubles) against the background of consumer market inflation of 12-15% and the growth of labor costs in this sector by 25-30% per year actually meant the beginning of a relative decline in the market.
In 2009, this relative decline turned into a real collapse. The volume of work in terms of money decreased by 2.5-3 times (and according to the most pessimistic estimates, even 4 times). In relation to the retail trade turnover, the cost volumes decreased by 2.5 times - to the level of 0.1-0.11%. The estimates remained close to these values for the next three years (2010-2012). That is, the contribution of the design market to GDP has declined sharply, and its recovery is not visible in the medium term.
Engineering
To the market of engineering services we (following the experts involved in the study) attributed:
Architectural design (partially overlapping with the design services market, especially in terms of interior design);
Engineering design;
Design industrial equipment(partially overlapping with the industrial design market);
Vehicle and system design (partially overlapping with the industrial design market);
Technical testing, research and certification;
Technical supervision and control.
As in the case of design, there is still no professional association in any of the engineering market segments that would regularly assess the volume and dynamics of its market segment. Therefore, here, too, all estimates of the engineering and design market were obtained exclusively by expert means, in the course of research (NRU HSE - "Romir", 2007-2012) - they are presented in Chart 3 and Table 8.
The growth of the engineering services market continued from the beginning of the 2000s until 2007 inclusive. During this time, estimates of the market volume have grown several times: from $3-5 billion to $10-20 billion. The share of engineering services in GDP also increased. The ratio between the average estimate of the volume of the engineering services market (in rubles) and the retail trade turnover increased 1.5 times - from 2.5% to 3.7%.
In 2008, the growth stopped. In fact, a recession began, but it was masked by the fact that many engineering projects have a duration of several years. For the same reason, the decline in 2009 was not as strong as in the market of design services - in 2009, many projects started in the "fat" years of 2006-2007 were completed. And for the same reason, the decline was longer than in other markets for knowledge services. It continued at least until the end of 2010. Adequate estimates for 2011-2012. failed to receive. So, the "stabilization" indicated in Table 8 is very conditional.
In relation to the retail trade turnover, the value of the engineering services market during the crisis more than halved - to the level of 1.4-1.5%, reflecting a decrease in the contribution of engineering to the creation of the country's GDP, and based on current trends in the medium term, it cannot be expected to recover.
IT services market
Since 2005, IDC has been making estimates of the size of the IT services market. Its reputation is so great that at the moment there are almost no other estimates on the market (in the public domain). Most of the experts who participated in our study in 2007-2012 use IDC data, although some experts are rather skeptical about these estimates, considering them to be seriously overestimated.
The IT services market consists of the following segments:
Computer hardware consulting;
Development software and advice in this area;
Data processing;
Activities for the creation and use of databases and information resources;
Provision of services in the field of cloud computing;
Ensuring information security.
Until 2008, the IT services market grew at a fairly high rate (Figure 4). However, they did not exceed the growth rates of other macroeconomic indicators. As a result, the contribution of IT services to GDP and the ratio between the size of the IT services market and retail trade turnover remained unchanged, in particular, the latter indicator was at the level of about 0.92% (Table 9).
In 2008, the IT services market shrank by 30% in rubles and by 44% in dollars. This is a larger decline than was recorded in the advertising and marketing services markets, but less significant than in the design and HR markets.
The fundamental difference between the IT services market and other markets for intellectual services has been a faster recovery.
Already in 2010, the IT services market restored and even surpassed the 2008 figures in ruble terms by 10%. In 2011, the estimated dollar volume of the market in 2008 was exceeded by 17%. And in 2012, the ratio between the volume of the IT services market and the retail trade turnover grew to a historical maximum - 0.99%.
Services in the field of recruitment and personnel management
Our HR experts include:
Mass recruitment;
Selection of management personnel and rare specialists - Head hunting (head-hunting);
Selection of freelancers, Outstaffing (outstaffing);
Development of a personnel motivation system;
Personel assessment;
Staff training, training, coaching.
It was not possible to obtain any reasonable estimates of the volume of individual segments of the recruitment and personnel management market for all the years of the study of intellectual services.
The first expert estimates of the market volume as a whole refer to 2001-2003. During this period, valuations ranged from US$65 million to US$250 million. In subsequent years, the range of estimates has been reduced from a fourfold to a twofold level, but still it remains very large.
Market assessments are made occasionally by joint or individual efforts of large recruiting agencies and/or their associations, such as: Association of Private Employment Agencies, Association of Personnel Consultants, etc.
At the initial stage (2001-2004), nominal estimates of the volume of the personnel management market increased rapidly - by 50% per year or more. This was due to the "low base" effect and the period of formation of a civilized market for services in the field of recruitment and personnel management.
But already in 2006-2008. there was a decrease in market growth rates to 22-28% (Figure 5), which, although they seemed quite high, were still inferior to the nominal growth rates of other macroeconomic indicators (GDP, retail trade turnover, wages).
In 2009, the market for recruitment and training services collapsed, various estimates, 2-4 times (Table 10). The weighted average estimate is a drop of 60% (2.5 times).
In 2010, there was hope for a recovery in market growth rates. But it did not materialize in 2011 and 2012. Judging by the available, very disparate information, the market growth rates in both 2011 and 2012 do not exceed a symbolic 5% (in rubles).
As a result of the crisis in the market for services in the field of recruitment and training of personnel, the ratio of the assessment of the market volume and retail trade turnover decreased by more than three times: from 0.2-0.21% (2005-2008) to 0.065-0.07% (2011-2012)
Audit
The audit services market is one of the rare examples of a market in the knowledge-based services sector, the volume estimates of which are made regularly and are characterized by a fairly high accuracy and reliability. This is largely due to the activities of the Expert RA rating agency, which regularly collects information on the activities of the largest (100-150) audit companies and groups and publishes data in the Expert magazine (at least once a quarter).
However, a number of experts are rather skeptical about Expert RA's estimates, since not all large Western companies take part in the research conducted by the agency, on the one hand. On the other hand, a row Russian companies, according to experts, they provide "Expert RA" with not entirely reliable information (they artificially inflate their performance indicators in order to get a higher place in the final ranking of the year).
Be that as it may, today, Expert RA's assessments of the audit market are the most adequate and fairly accurate. At least in comparison with estimates of the volumes of other markets for intellectual services (with the exception of the market for advertising and IT services).
The market for audit services experienced a period of rapid growth in 2001-2005. Then the market growth rates decreased to 20-25% per annum. The audit market passed the crisis of 2009 relatively (in comparison with other markets of intellectual services) easily: the volume of the market in rubles did not decrease (Figure 6), while estimates of the volume of the market in dollars decreased by 18-20% (that is, by the value of the exchange rate correction). USA. Very slightly - from 0.43% to 0.42% - the ratio of the market volume and retail trade turnover decreased (Table 11).
The real troubles began in the audit services market in 2010-2011. in connection with the abolition of mandatory annual audits for some enterprises and organizations. And also with the use of price tenders in the market for audit services when choosing a contractor for the performance of work (FZ-94). The unfolding price competition has significantly reduced prices for different kinds audit - with an even more significant (according to the experts who participated in our study) decrease in the quality of services provided.
Here the ratio of the volume of the audit services market and the retail trade turnover began to noticeably decrease - to 0.36-0.37%.
Financial intermediation and asset management services
Our financial intermediation and management services include:
Trust management services;
Financial consulting;
Leasing services;
Factoring services;
Brokerage and trading services.
Over the years of studying the KIBS sector, we have managed to obtain only a few expert assessments in the leasing, factoring and trust management segments. All of them are highly speculative (Table 12).
Thus, the volume of assets held in trust management in 2006-2007. was estimated by experts at 1-1.5 trillion rubles. Income Estimates management company were in the range from 1.5% to 3.5%. Thus, estimates of the total income from trust management were in the range from 15 to 50 billion rubles, or 0.6-2 billion US dollars.
In 2011-2012 the amount of funds held in trust was estimated at 2.5-3 trillion rubles. And the possible income of management companies is 1.7-2.7% of the amount of funds under management, that is, 40-80 billion rubles, or 1.35-2.7 billion dollars.
Approximately the same algorithm was used to estimate income from the provision of brokerage services. The total turnover of trading in securities and derivatives in 2010 amounted to 66 trillion rubles, or slightly more than 2 trillion dollars. (Ministry of Finance, FCSM, "Expert RA"). The total remuneration of brokers can range from 0.05% to 0.1% of turnover (expert assessment), that is, from one to $2 billion in 2010.
Development and intermediary services in real estate management
Our development services include:
Real estate management services;
Real estate appraisal services (partly intersect with audit services);
Real estate rental services;
Mediation in real estate purchase and sale transactions (partly intersect with legal services);
Real estate development consulting.
In the course of the study of the knowledge services sector (NRU HSE - "Romir"), it was decided to focus on market research in terms of providing services only to legal entities.
The question of the legitimacy of the inclusion of real estate services for individuals in the sector of intellectual services (or the inclusion of these services in the sector of personal services) remained open. But since 2009, real estate services for individuals have been excluded from the field of research of intellectual services.
No organization or association regularly assesses the volume and dynamics of the real estate development and management services market: all estimates were obtained from market experts during the study.
The volume of the development services market in the period from 2001 to 2008 grew at a faster pace than the main macroeconomic indicators. This was facilitated not only by the general development of the knowledge services sector, but also by a prolonged boom (to the stage of overheating) in the residential and commercial real estate in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other major cities of the country.
In 2007-2008 the share of development services in GDP reached its historical maximum. And the ratio between estimates of the market volume and retail trade turnover was 1.8% (Table 13).
The real estate boom ended with the crash of late 2008 and the crisis of 2009. Estimates of the size of the development services market have almost halved (Chart 7). In the post-crisis period, there was no real market recovery. The ratio of estimates of the volume of the development market and the retail trade turnover continued its gradual decline to a level below 1%. In the medium term, the recovery of market volumes in pre-crisis parameters is not expected.
Should have decided
Today, the KIBS sector in Russia is (in the literal and figurative sense of the word) facing a strategic crossroads. In the absence of a state policy (we are not talking about direct forms of financial support) aimed at stimulating the outstripping growth of this sector (as a whole or at least of its individual segments), it is quite obvious that it will face further stagnation and a decrease in its share in GDP. Then there will be an exodus (internal - to other sectors of the economy, and external - outside Russian Federation) the best specialists, a decrease in labor productivity and a drop in the quality of services provided. At the same time, certain segments of the intellectual services markets will fall under the control of international (read "Western, American") corporations, as has already happened in the field of audit or marketing research, where more than 60% of the Russian market is controlled by several "subsidiaries" of international marketing research agencies.
Maybe a small loss? We are talking about only 2.5% of GDP (we will lose 1%) and 1.5% of employment (we will lose 0.5%). So what? But by making such a decision (or even just not making a support decision) with regard to the knowledge services sector, it will be possible to say goodbye to the idea of modernizing the Russian economy, diversifying it, the idea of creating millions of new high-performance and well-paid jobs: remember this election idea, which not a single serious opponent was found even in the ranks of the "irreconcilable"? And finally concentrate our competencies in the field of production, transportation and primary processing of hydrocarbons, metals and other raw materials. Because in modern conditions it is the KIBS sector that is both a conductor and a "catalyst" of the idea of modernization, introduction of innovations (the study "Monitoring the KIBS Sector in Russia" confirmed this, but a detailed analysis of the mechanism for distributing innovations "pulls" for a separate large review). Because the very idea of "modernization" in its modern form is the idea of a transition from a "service economy" (post-industrial, service) to a "knowledge economy" (knowledge-intensive, intellectual).
Therefore, in the West, governments, not shying away from violating the "purity of principles" and not particularly fearing to receive reproaches (from whom?) in state regulation, paternalism, violation of the rules of "free competition", etc., by all possible ways support the nascent (and growing) knowledge-based services sector in their countries. They provide him with "most favored nation" regimes, preferences and benefits. Grow, groom and cherish. And they have grown it to 10-15% of GDP and 7-12% of employment. And already on the basis of the "knowledge economy" (and cheap energy resources such as shale gas) they are preparing to make a "new industrialization". Leaving Russia, India, China, Indonesia and Vietnam the extraction and transportation of raw materials, primary processing and environmentally flawed manufacturing industries.
What do we have? We have our own way! "Bourgeois is not a decree for us!" Moreover, here again the crisis, as usual, inopportunely and at the wrong time. There is no time for subtle questions about the contribution of knowledge-based services to GDP.
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Let's see who Igor Berezin is and what contribution he made to the development of marketing. Let's start with an early biography.
Facts from early life
Berezin's year of birth is 1967. It has economic Education Moscow State University Lomonosov. He graduated from the university in 1991. The specialization was "socio-economic planning and forecasting." In 1994, he continued his education by enrolling in graduate school with a specialization in Demography.
After graduating from graduate school, he became a partner, senior consultant of the SOLAR company. Later he will become CEO firms.
In 2000-2005, he managed the analytical team of the Expert magazine, a magazine dealing with various studies in one area or another. At that time, he was interested in the lifestyle of the middle class. In 2005, he became a partner in one of their largest companies specializing in public consultation. In addition, he is an expert specialist and a member of the board of directors of one of the largest research groups.
Berezin's opinion on the peculiarities of marketing in the Russian Federation
Berezin believes that marketing in his homeland is determined by some principles:
The main complication in the work of a marketer in the vastness of Russia is the fact that many businessmen consider the marketing estimate not as an injection of money into their asset, but as expenses that will not be returned and seem to sink into oblivion. And therefore, they believe that such costs can, and even need to be made minimal. All this makes a marketing specialist not someone who occupies a responsible and even more respectable position. It is sometimes very difficult for a marketer to make arguments, even based on facts from the experience of other companies, in order to convince the manager to put resources into the right business, which will bring income in the future;
Another specificity, as well as a difficulty, is that there is no free access to correct and proportionate market data. Of course, there are publications in Russia that specialize in marketing, but they are not as popular as they used to be in the West. Russian firms are not yet ready to share data about their projects that have brought them success, and even more so to let them into free access. This is the mentality of the Soviet era, which will not get rid of for a long time, but it is necessary to make attempts on the way to this;
It is impossible to bypass the side and control by the state, (direct or indirect). Marketing is considered just a "decoration" and not a necessity. In the country with the largest territory, the success of a company depends mainly on good management, as well as their relationship with government agencies, rather than on marketing.
What may change in the near future
According to Berezin, the future of marketing in Russia is rather optimistic. Even though there are problems. To date, the growth in the profitability of the population is limited, and many firms analyze the needs of their customers in order to gain some advantage in the face of fierce competition.
In his opinion, in order to move to a qualitatively new level of development in our country, it is necessary to pay close attention to the “lower middle class". This includes the intelligentsia (doctors and teachers, managers), employees in the state apparatus, law enforcement officers, qualified workers, drivers and various craftsmen. These clients are different from the rest because of material realities. Therefore, exactly the same paradigm that is proposed for the "upper middle class" is unacceptable. Due to the mentality and character, the described class approaches the choice of goods more meaningfully, and also hardly accepts a new product.
Today is the time when another marketing should develop, based on the thorough discovery, analysis, research and satisfaction of the needs of the most various categories population. It is marketing that must become a method that will bring stable income manufacturers and intermediaries (companies engaged in trade). Even if in proportion the profit will not be so big.
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