Risk management on the example of OOO Gazprom Transgaz Tomsk

OOO Gazprom transgaz Tomsk (hereinafter referred to as the Company) is the easternmost gas transportation company of OAO Gazprom. Implements production activities in 12 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in Eastern, Western Siberia and the Far East, the number of employees is more than 6.5 thousand people. Due to participation in the implementation of major gas transmission projects of OAO Gazprom, the length of serviced main gas pipelines and the number of the Company's personnel annually increases by 10-20%.

As a result of the analysis of the risks of a gas transportation company, 2 large groups were identified: strategic risks (related to project activities) and risks associated with the current (operational) activities of the company. Risk management at OOO Gazprom transgaz Tomsk is carried out in accordance with 4 standard strategies: evasion, transfer, reduction, acceptance.

I. Strategic (project) risks

1. Risks associated with entering new regions and new markets

Description of the risk

By the decision of the Chairman of the Management Board of OJSC "Gazprom" A.B. Miller, the Company was appointed responsible for the operation of gas transmission systems (GTS) created and acquired by OAO Gazprom in the regions of Eastern Siberia and the Far East. In connection with the start of implementation promising tasks the Company plans to operate in new regions, where territorial expansion is carried out in conditions of uncertainty.

risk management

Branches of the Company are created in order to obtain the necessary work experience in new regions. In order to increase the effectiveness of the Company's interaction with state authorities, enterprises, companies and organizations of the relevant regions, information and analytical support is provided for the activities of the Company's branches and active work is carried out to build relations with the public and the media. The Company's strategy is aimed at mutually beneficial cooperation with regional authorities in order to fulfill the tasks of OAO Gazprom and implement the Eastern Gas Program and is carried out in fruitful cooperation with state territorial bodies.

2. Risks associated with the implementation of new gas transmission projects

Description of the risk

In connection with the expansion of the territorial scope of OAO Gazprom, the Company was appointed as the customer for the construction of gas transmission facilities in the regions of Eastern Siberia and the Far East, having no experience in implementing such major projects as the Power of Siberia gas pipeline.

risk management

In accordance with the principles of project management, the directions of organizational activities of LLC "Gazprom transgaz Tomsk" in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, including the creation of an organizational structure, the organization of a personnel training center, project management by phases, are substantiated. life cycle, including a comprehensive survey of facilities under construction, their design, development of plans and construction schedules and commissioning of completed facilities, the introduction of a risk management system for the implementation of investment projects.

3. Risks associated with environmental pollution

Description of the risk

The Company's activities by their nature involve the risk of harm to the environment. Due to damage to the environment or its pollution, the following are possible:

• -- legal consequences, including bringing to responsibility;
• -- financial costs associated with the payment of fines and compensation for the harm caused;
• - damage to business reputation.

risk management

The Company conducts a consistent environmental policy, implements programs and measures to reduce environmental impact, finances environmental activities, introduces progressive resource-saving and other environmental technologies. The Company's environmental management system has successfully passed certification for compliance with the requirements of the international standard ISO 14001:2004. As part of the comprehensive insurance coverage of the Company, liability insurance is provided for the construction and operation of hazardous production facilities, which ensures payment of compensation for damage caused to the environment and minimizes the risk of negative financial consequences. The environmental information of the Company is open.

5. Risks of rising costs

Description of the risk

In the pre-crisis years, unit costs in capital construction in the oil and gas industry grew at a rate exceeding the rate of inflation due to an increase in prices for raw materials, materials, components, services, including prices for metal, gas pumping units, etc. During the crisis, the cost of individual items have stabilized or even decreased, but there is still a possibility of outstripping cost growth in the future.

risk management

The Company uses competitive procedures to select suppliers and works directly with suppliers. Monitoring of market prices for the main products, control of pricing of suppliers is carried out. Successful work has been carried out to improve the information transparency of the Company's activities, and the improvement of competitive procedures continues.

5.1 Root cause analysis of significant risks in OAO Gazprom based on the Ishikawa diagram

According to the previous calculation results, the number of significant risks in the activities of OAO Gazprom for the year 2013 under review included:

1. Price risk.

With regard to these significant risks for OAO Gazprom, it is necessary to carry out an analysis of cause-and-effect relationships based on the Ishikawa diagram. To identify the initial causes of their occurrence for subsequent work on the development of adequate measures of influence. Influences are carried out not on the risk, but on the causes and factors causing them.

Price risk belongs to the category of financial risks, therefore, among the basic sources of price risk occurrence, the following should be singled out:

1. Market (external and internal);

2. State;

3. Currency.

The main factors affecting the price risk in the Company's activities:

· economic and political developments in the oil-producing regions of the world;

· the current ratio of supply and demand, as well as the forecast of demand and supply of liquid fuel for the future;

· the ability of OPEC, as well as oil-producing countries that are not members of this organization, to regulate oil production in order to maintain the price level;

the military-political situation in the world;

· the state of the global general economic situation;

prices for alternative energy carriers;

The main goal of risk management in the Company is to ensure continuity production process and stability of activities by preventing threats and limiting the degree of impact of external and internal negative factors on the activities of the Company.

Risk management is an integral part of OAO Gazprom's internal environment and includes:

introduction of a risk-based approach to all aspects of production and management activities;

· conducting a systematic analysis of identified risks;

· building a risk control system and monitoring the effectiveness of risk management activities;

· understanding by all employees of the Company of the basic principles and approaches to risk management adopted by the Company;

• providing the necessary regulatory and methodological support;

· Distribution of powers and responsibilities for risk management among the structural units of the Company.

In the event of a decline in world prices for oil products, there will also be (albeit to a lesser extent) a decrease in prices for natural gas supplied by OAO Gazprom to European customers, which will lead to a reduction in the Company's export revenues.

In the markets of European countries, OAO Gazprom faces competition from suppliers of alternative types of energy carriers ( liquid fuel, coal). In addition, there is competition from other natural gas suppliers, especially Norway, Algeria, and the Netherlands.

The Company's goal in the field of risk management is to provide additional guarantees for the Company's achievement of strategic goals through early warning and identification of risks and ensuring the maximum effectiveness of their management measures.

Price risks. The main activities of Gazprom are oil and gas production, oil refining, and the sale of oil and oil products, therefore the Company is exposed to the risks traditionally inherent in the oil and gas industry, namely such price risks as:

possible changes in prices for purchased raw materials, services;

· possible changes in oil and gas prices;

Risks associated with possible changes in gas prices in the domestic market.

Prices for natural gas supplied to Russian consumers and tariffs for its transportation services provided to independent organizations are regulated by the state. At the same time, they are significantly lower than the prices that apply to buyers in Western Europe, even taking into account export duties, customs duties and transport costs. OAO Gazprom is taking steps to improve the pricing system for gas supplied to the domestic market. Recently, it has been possible to change approaches to the formation of gas prices.

The Government of the Russian Federation has acknowledged that the current regulated prices for natural gas are below the economically justified level and should increase at a rate that exceeds the rate of inflation. According to the decision by 17%.

According to OAO Gazprom's proposals, the Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2020 (approved by the Government of the Russian Federation in August 2003) provides for long-term predictive parameters for changes in gas prices.

OAO Gazprom's calculations show that the predicted dynamics of gas prices will not have a significant impact on other sectors of the economy.

If the Government of the Russian Federation continues the policy of gradually bringing gas prices in line with the actual costs of its production, transportation, storage and sale, as well as with the main quality parameters of gas compared to alternative fuels, this will allow eliminating gas price subsidies for industries which are its consumers, to attract, mainly at the expense of the Company's funds, the necessary financial resources for the development of new gas fields and further development of the gas transmission system.

The Ishikawa diagram in relation to the price risk in the activities of OAO Gazprom is as follows:

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Rice. 5.1 Ishikawa chart of price risk for a company

1.1 Factors influencing changes in gas and oil prices in external domestic markets;

1.2 Factors affecting the change in prices for petroleum products in foreign and domestic markets;

1.3 Factors affecting the purchased raw materials;

1.4 Factors affecting purchased services;

2.1 Violation of the subsoil use regime;

2.2 Loss of rights to use licensed areas;

2.3 Violation of the current legislation on subsoil use;

2.4 Rule changes customs control and duties;

2.5 Factors affecting the rate of export duty on oil;

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Environmental risk management industrial enterprise should be carried out within the framework of the environmental management system at the stages of planning, organization and implementation of environmental actions and activities, contributing to the optimization of the adopted management decisions.
In order to organize risk management work at the enterprise, lists of objects, equipment, materials, professions, positions, teams should be compiled, the failure of which can cause: catastrophic damage; obviously great damage; damage comparable to the cost of preventing damage; minor damage.
The objective basis for building an environmental risk management system at an enterprise is the concept of acceptable risk. The content of this concept is based on three levels of environmental risk at different times: the initial level of environmental risk, i.e. the level of risk of an idea, a plan for the development of economic activity without taking into account measures for its analysis; this risk is unknown, unestimated and, therefore, of a sufficiently high level due to the unpreparedness of the manager for emerging environmental events; the estimated level of environmental risk, taking into account the measures for its analysis, as a result of which a real assessment of the level of risk was obtained; it is a risk analyzed and, therefore, a lower level due to the manager's readiness for environmental consequences; the final (final, acceptable) level of environmental risk, taking into account the developed and implemented active and passive measures to reduce its initial level.
The main provisions of the concept of acceptable risk, in the case of environmental risk, can be represented as follows: environmental risk is often a manageable parameter, the level of which can and should be influenced; a high level of initial environmental risk should not serve as a basis for refusing to make any economic decision; detailed analysis of environmental risk and development of measures to reduce it negative consequences, as a rule, allow making economic decisions that are actually implemented at an acceptable or acceptable level of environmental risk; the task of environmental risk management is to balance the benefits received from the implementation of an economic decision and the possible losses.
Thus, managing the environmental risk of industrial
enterprises is a balancing act between the level of possible losses and the potential benefit from the implementation of an environmentally risky economic decision through the use of various methods of influencing the level of environmental risk.
When managing the environmental risks of an industrial enterprise, their nature should be taken into account. In this regard, the enterprise acts as an ecological object, which is a specific social group, and the environmental risks that arise during its operation are characterized as the probabilities of changing its stability and/or death (bankruptcy) due to changes in the environment. At the same time, from the point of view of simplifying the tasks of analyzing and managing environmental risks, probable changes in the sustainability of an industrial enterprise should be considered as primary in relation to changes in the environment, consisting of: the natural environment, which corresponds to natural environmental risks; the surrounding technogenic environment that generates technical and environmental risks; environmental and social environment from which social and environmental risks arise.
Natural and environmental risks, as a rule, do not have a special impact on an industrial enterprise, therefore it seems appropriate to keep them “without funding”.
As methods of influencing the level of technical and environmental risks of an industrial enterprise, it is proposed to use such as: risk avoidance; risk reduction; preservation (acceptance) of risks; transfer (transfer) of risks.
Evasion of environmental risks means the rejection of technical and technological actions and activities that entail the realization of an unacceptable level of risks.
Maintaining environmental risks at the current level may mean: refusal of any actions aimed at compensating the damage arising from the realization of risks (“without funding”); creation at the enterprise of special reserve funds (self-insurance funds or risk funds), from which losses will be compensated in the event of an adverse environmental event; receipt of state subsidies, credits and loans to compensate for losses and restore production.
The transfer of environmental risks implies the preservation of their existing level with the transfer in whole or in part to third parties. This includes insurance (property, personal, liability insurance), which involves the transfer of technical and environmental risks for a fee to an insurance company, as well as various financial guarantees and guarantees. The transfer of environmental risks can also be carried out by introducing into the text of documents (for example, contracts for the supply of products) special clauses that reduce the company's own liability in the event of unforeseen adverse events or transfer risks to the counterparty after the realization of environmental risks. Full transfer of environmental risks can occur as a result of outsourcing, which means, in this case, the sale of environmentally hazardous business areas.
Of all the above methods of influencing the level of technical and environmental risks, their reduction plays a decisive role, which implies a reduction in either the size of possible environmental damage or the likelihood of environmental events, and is based on greening industrial production associated with the implementation of preventive environmental activities and the organization of environmentally friendly production (in the English transcription "cleaner production"), which is a logical completion of a multi-stage process of transformation in the system of environmental measures: technologies of the "end of the pipe" - low-waste, resource-saving technologies - production focused on prevention of waste generation at the point of origin.
The methods of influencing the level of social and environmental risks of an industrial enterprise are: signaling; implementation of the strategy for improving the environmental image of the enterprise; creation of bilateral and multilateral transactional relations.
Signaling is understood as the behavior of an enterprise that is the opposite of opportunistic (i.e., pursuing selfish interests), which allows you to convince interested parties of its readiness to solve any environmental problems. Examples of signaling include so-called verifiable self-restrictions or commitments in the environmental sector, long-term binding of an enterprise for environmental investments, environmental sponsorship, conditional contracts (for example, an obligation to re-equip transport in the event of

introduction of more stringent exhaust gas standards in the country), etc. All these signals should confirm the seriousness of the environmental intentions and actions of an industrial enterprise and thereby influence the public's perception of environmental risks associated with its activities.
The strategy for improving the environmental image of an industrial enterprise includes signaling as one of the possibilities, as well as various forms of public relations. Another way to improve a company's environmental reputation is to buy a so-called environmentally friendly portfolio, for example by purchasing shares in a recycling or recycling company.
Creation of two- and multilateral transactional relations
is mainly based on the use and formation of adequate institutions for regulating the relationship between an industrial enterprise and interested parties and, in particular, for regulating the exchange processes occurring within these relations. Thus, through the conclusion of labor contracts between the administration and the personnel of the enterprise, it is possible to provide for compensation in the form of bonuses to wages for the impact on health of unfavorable working conditions, and thereby reduce or eliminate the uncertainty for the enterprise associated with the possibility of claims from workers for compensation for damage to their health.
In a similar way, the institutions that regulate the relations of the enterprise with its political and administrative external environment. An example is the licenses (permits) issued to an enterprise for pollution (within certain limits) of the natural environment. A similar role is played by EIA and environmental impact assessment of projects. The latter, including both state and public evaluation of the project and confirming the feasibility (from the economic, social and environmental aspects) of its implementation, also acts as a means of regulating relations between the investor and relevant stakeholders and managing the corresponding risks. The risk management tool in this sense is the certification of environmental management systems for their compliance with the requirements of ISO 14001 (GOST R ISO 14001) or EMAS.
Along with fairly well-established institutions that allow managing socio-environmental risks, there are quite a few

assigned group interested parties, relations with which do not have such a degree of certainty (for example, various informal environmental organizations, local communities, etc.). To regulate relations with them, it is necessary to develop innovative institutions. In this case, we are talking about the formation of bilateral and multilateral transactional relations. Bilateral transactions encompass the contractual relationship between an industrial enterprise and its various stakeholders. At the same time, the design of contracts is determined by the enterprise and interested parties independently, without direct connection with formal institutions existing in society (environmental licenses, certificates, standards, etc.).
Due to the variety of ways to influence the environmental risks of an industrial enterprise, an analysis of their comparative effectiveness is required, the main methods of which are: the cost-benefit method (another name is cost-profit analysis) and the cost-effectiveness method (another name is efficiency analysis). costs). The cost-benefit method is based on comparing the benefits (results) expected from the implementation of activities with the costs of their implementation. The cost-effectiveness method is used if a decision has been made on the expediency of achieving a specific goal in the field of environmental risk management. At the same time, the main task is to select such activities (scenarios) that ensure the achievement of the goal in the least costly way. An analysis of the environmental risks of an industrial enterprise and ways of influencing them contributes to the optimization of management decisions in this area.

About the study

Ernst & Young's 2010 Key Business Risks Report is designed to provide executives with the most effective access to the information they need in a time-pressure environment. We have compiled a list of the main

risks for oil and gas companies, while paying special attention to key issues and the most significant trends in the development of the industry. With the help of Oxford Analytica, we have updated a chart that we have created and is already familiar to industry participants, designed to visually represent the top 10 industry risks based on their significance as of 2010.

In addition, detailed information on risks is provided in the sections dedicated to the following industry segments:

• Transportation and storage - harvesting, preparation, transportation and storage
• Processing and marketing
• Oilfield services, including service companies and the supply chain.

This information can be used as part of a range of risk management activities aimed at helping the company address the following issues:

• Identification of risks arising from the expansion of the company's activities, as well as threats associated with measures to reduce production and costs
• Encouraging new ideas and out-of-the-box, innovative thinking
• Prioritization of tasks in order to coordinate risk management activities at the corporate level
• Reduce risk through a hands-on, best practice approach
• Increase the effectiveness of strategic planning through a deep understanding of the current challenges facing the industry.

Introduction

Throughout the past year, the efforts of the global business community have been focused on solving the main issue - how to ensure effective risk management in the face of uncertainty. For oil and gas companies, this problem remains relevant to this day: the industry is still experiencing the consequences of the largest crisis in the global economy over the past 75 years. Despite the restrained optimism caused by the gradual recovery of the global economy, its condition remains vulnerable. Like the aftermath of a major earthquake, financial instability and market unrest will continue to have a direct impact on the recovery of the global economy from the worst crisis since the Great Depression.

The global economy continues to show unsustainable growth. Moreover, the recovery is expected to be further hit by slower employment growth, continued credit crunch, and problems faced by currencies associated with high level risk. The global economic crisis has slowed down economic growth in developing Asian countries, while the developed powers (primarily the US and European countries) are still in recession. According to many analysts, the process of recovery from the crisis will be difficult and uneven, with a full recovery not expected until 2011, and possibly later.

Companies in the oil and gas industry turned out to be influenced by the current economic situation in the world, against which the risks that we consider as part of the study this year arose. Almost all of the risks we identified are long-term in nature. At the same time, the degree of their relative importance during each year will depend on the current state of the economy and market conditions. In fact, the problems that oil and gas companies had to face throughout the previous year, for the most part, still remain relevant. This year, the key position on the diagram is assigned to the risks associated with the uncertainty of energy policy. This is not surprising, since in 2010 the problem of regulatory uncertainty was the most pressing for companies in the oil and gas industry. The accident in the Gulf of Mexico further exacerbated the situation in the industry.

Oil and gas companies should look forward to the revision and expansion of safety regulations, as well as increased readiness to prevent and reduce environmental risks. Industry participants should carefully monitor the risks under consideration and other risks they face.

These risks should be re-analyzed to assess their impact not only on the current portfolio of assets, but also on future investment activities.

Due to the increased relevance of corporate social responsibility, as well as the growing importance of economic factors and regulatory oversight, the need to move to manage these risks is becoming increasingly obvious, both in order to ensure short-term profitability and for the long-term sustainability of oil and gas companies. It is for this reason that this report also presents the most effective, from our point of view, ways to minimize risks by improving the capital management strategy, investing in technology development, streamlining processes related to financial and operational activities, etc.

We hope that the factual information presented in this report and our recommendations on the issues discussed will be useful to you and your business. We hope that the results of our research will accelerate the process of further improvement of your own strategy for identifying and minimizing risks.

Ernst & Young Business Risk Diagram

The Ernst & Young chart is a simple tool, which makes it possible to visualize the top 10 business risks for a company or industry. Placed in the central area of ​​the chart are the risks that, according to the interviewed analysts, will be of greatest importance to the leading international companies in the oil and gas industry next year.

Assessing the significance and prioritization of risks

Experts from the oil and gas industry took part in the study, whose task was to identify the main business risks in 2010. We asked the study participants to focus on the risks faced by leading oil and gas companies. international companies. We asked each expert to explain why the risk was identified as important, how it changed from last year, and its impact on the company's value drivers. Based on the results of the survey, a list of risks for companies in the oil and gas industry was compiled, which we consider to be exhaustive.

The diagram is divided into four segments: financial risks, compliance risks, strategic and operational risks. The risks of non-compliance with legal requirements are related to politics, legal issues, regulations and corporate governance. Financial risks arise as a result of the instability of markets and the economy as a whole. Strategic risks are due to the nature of interactions with customers, competitors and investors. And finally, operational risks affect the processes, systems, people and value chain of the company as a whole.

Top 10 risks for oil and gas companies

1. Cost containment (4)
2. Price volatility (3)
3. Lack of human resources (6)
4. Supply breaches (9)
5. Mutual duplication of services offered by international oil and oilfield service companies
6. New operational difficulties, including those associated with working in unexplored conditions (new risk).

1.

According to the general opinion, the degree of relevance of this risk has increased compared to the previous year (the risk has risen from the second to the first position). This year, there remains some uncertainty about energy policy priorities. This is partly due to the unclear results of the December 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference and the failure of the United States to

develop a clear energy policy. The environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico has further complicated energy policy decision-making in all regions. Energy Policy Uncertainty

reduces the effectiveness of measures for planning activities, forming an investment strategy and ensuring resilience to changes in supply and demand. This, in turn, increases the likelihood of an imbalance in supply and demand due to a slowdown in investment activity. In general terms, the lack of certainty about upcoming changes in legal and regulatory requirements will negatively affect the further development of the industry and make it difficult to make long-term investments.

• Applying a structured approach to informing political leaders and the general public about the need for a coherent and consistent energy policy, as well as to lobbying this issue in political circles and society. This is a long-term goal that will require significant resources to achieve.
• Understanding and ability to predict the direction of further development of the energy policy of the country in which the company operates. For these purposes, it may be necessary to involve local political consultants, which is relevant even for small enterprises.
• Implementation of a number of large-scale initiatives aimed at ensuring compliance with legal requirements and the development of new reporting forms, as well as other activities that facilitate adaptation to anticipated changes in the regulatory framework. It also makes sense to consider moving some of the production activities to countries and regions with lower compliance costs.

2. Access to reserves: political constraints and competition for proven reserves

By analogy with 2009, ensuring access to sufficient hydrocarbon reserves at a reasonable cost is still considered one of the main challenges for industry participants. Many oil and gas fields are located in remote areas (tar sands in Canada, fields in the Arctic and deep water fields). This not only significantly increases the cost of exploration and production, but also leads to an increase in the risks associated with the need for additional capital investments.

Perhaps more importantly, companies will have to face a range of political pressures that could potentially limit or eliminate their access to such deposits. In the United States, for example, changes to tax laws and other regulations to subsidize the production of electric vehicles, renewable energy sources, and other alternative fuel sources could lead to a slowdown in the industry. In the case of developing countries, political instability and the nationalization of natural resources can cause interruptions in their supply.

At the same time, competition for access to new fields is expected to intensify among international and national oil companies. Unlike international oil companies, national enterprises have a number of significant advantages: support from the government and state investment funds, as well as geographical proximity to the markets of Asian countries with emerging economies. It will also serve as a source of additional significant risks for international oil companies.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

• Dedicating time and resources to a comprehensive risk analysis of the operating environment in which the company operates. There are no identical operating conditions. In order to better adapt to the political situation of a particular country and use existing opportunities as efficiently as possible, a company can find a local partner.
• Expanding access to the resource base by increasing the number of joint ventures and reassessing the profitability of current operations. In addition, the risk of losing access to major natural resource deposits in the event of price increases or political instability can be minimized by strengthening cooperation with NOCs through alliances and partnerships.
• Consideration of alternative possibilities. While oil will remain an important commodity for some time, companies need to put the situation into perspective. Gas is likely to become a more important energy component as it is cheaper compared to renewables. The main problem with gas today - the location of fields and the complexity of transportation - will be solved as technologies improve and new infrastructure is created.

Failure to take action to reduce adverse environmental impacts, given that oil is considered a major source of pollution, is fraught with serious reputational risks.

3 . Cost containment

Risks associated with the need to contain growth in costs moved up one notch, moving from fourth position last year to third this year. Ensuring effective cost control allows you to optimize cash flows. Against the backdrop of the current situation in the global economy, a number of companies are guided by such a strategy, striving to maintain the level of profitability.

However, regardless of the strategy used, the implementation of cost containment measures always involves a certain degree of risk associated with a negative impact on the return on invested capital (ROI). In addition, the implementation of such measures can lead to disruptions in operations, adversely affect the company's revenue, relationships with customers and the quality of fulfillment of obligations under supply contracts. In 2009, as the financial crisis unfolded, many companies focused on sustaining profit levels, but as the economy recovers, the focus should be on how to sustainably cut costs. Going forward, once the economy returns to its previous pace, business leaders should consider managing the risks associated with rising costs as a result of inflation. In the future, operating and production costs for oil and gas companies are sure to increase, especially given the possible entry into force of new requirements in the field of safety and environmental protection.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

• An effective measure is to reduce operating expenses. This means streamlining processes, making better use of shared services including IT, improving business processes and, wherever possible, reducing costs across the supply chain.
• Ensure accountability of managers responsible for implementing cost reduction programs. The company must be able to communicate effectively about the strategy and implementation plan. Businesses are encouraged to align all cost reduction initiatives with and follow an implementation strategy. Those companies that have already implemented cost reduction programs should regularly review the results of the measures taken.
• Focus on initiatives to tighten working capital management processes to improve liquidity, introduce new technologies to improve operational efficiency, outsource activities that are not sources of income (for example, accounting, payroll and payroll).

4.

This risk has moved up one notch, moving from fifth position last year to fourth this year. On the background current trends In the global economy, many developing countries are experiencing a sharp decline in budget revenues from the implementation of public investment programs, as well as tax revenues. In this regard, oil and gas companies are expected to continue to face higher tax rates and other fiscal measures. It is possible that international oil companies will be forced to revise the terms of cooperation with national companies oil and gas industry, while in new business models the focus will shift towards national interests.

The risk of tightening the financial and tax regimes in the industry is also observed in countries with developed economies. Influenced by economic and political factors, the governments of these countries are considering or have already started practical implementation measures aimed at raising tax rates, reducing tax incentives for exploration activities, revising royalty rates, etc.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

• Understanding the peculiarities of the national tax regime established by the tax legislation of the country in which the company operates. In emerging markets, there can be significant differences between tax law requirements and practice. Cooperation with a local tax consultant can be effective in terms of solving this problem.
• Finding a balance between managing the risks associated with tightening tax requirements and realizing new investment opportunities, including scenario planning and analysis tax risks taking into account various economic conditions.
• Optimization of the functioning of the supply chain from the point of view of taxation through the transition to the use of a unified approach, covering the issues of transfer pricing, business restructuring, entering into partnerships to obtain tax credits, and more.
• The importance of establishing good business relationships with local regulators and governments is especially evident when the playing field begins to change. In addition, it may be useful to have provisions for international arbitration in the treaty.

Over the past few years, there has been a trend towards an increase in the level of fluctuations in oil prices. The situation remains unchanged, even despite the measures taken by the regulators to limit speculative trading in oil futures.

5.

The risk associated with climate change and environmental issues has moved from seventh position to fifth. Despite the fact that the debate about climate change, in particular global warming on the planet as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, continues to this day, the governments of a number of countries have already taken certain regulatory and legislative measures that directly affect the interests of participants in the oil and gas industry.

countries European Union(EU) has set a set of environmental targets and standards that, among other things, aim to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by at least 20% by 2020. In addition, initiatives are being implemented in the EU (eg the European CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme) aimed at encouraging the transition from fossil fuel generation to renewable sources. China has introduced a series of environmental regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and encouraging the use of nuclear and renewable energy. These regulations are primarily focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from coal combustion. However, due to the size of the domestic market alone, as well as the growing influence of the country on the world stage, China's position in climate change negotiations will be of great importance both in 2010 and beyond (affecting almost all industries). .

In the United States, the possibility of introducing amendments to the legislation that directly affects the interests of oil and gas companies and involves, in particular, the adoption of measures to improve safety and tighten requirements in the field of environmental compliance (including the application of civil law sanctions and the imposition of fines). Companies will still be forced to monitor such changes in legislation.

In the oil and gas industry, environmental problems have not only led to an increase in the number of relevant legislative initiatives, but also significantly complicated the process of predicting the results of applying new legal norms in the future. Regulatory policy is based on several conflicting objectives: energy security, resource availability and demand satisfaction. For example, an unexpected downturn in the global economy could slow down legislation or force governments to extend the deadlines needed to comply with legislation.

Oil and gas companies are the object of close attention not only from the state. Today, businesses in the industry are facing increasing pressure from shareholders to disclose information about environmental risks. Due to the oil spill environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, some investors expect full disclosure of the threats posed by offshore drilling and the possible environmental impacts of offshore drilling operations, as well as the measures implemented by oil and gas companies to prevent such accidents. , minimizing their consequences and managing the associated risks.

Going forward, serious global concerns about the state of the environment will continue to influence how companies in the industry make decisions regarding strategic development.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

• Integrating climate change and environmental action into the core business model rather than looking at them in isolation. Climate change and environmental issues have become major business risks and should become common practice.
• Conduct an enterprise-wide risk assessment by segment to ensure that effective risk mitigation and incident response plans are in place.
• Proactive action to make changes and investments in line with expected tightening of greenhouse gas emissions regulations. Companies looking to lead the way in low-carbon energy are well positioned to do so today.
• Partnering with the national oil company of the country of operation to ensure a better understanding of the requirements of local environmental legislation.
• Improving the quality of non-financial reporting, including disclosure of information on greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, as well as on the environmental impact of companies' activities. Oil and gas companies may engage independent experts to verify the accuracy of their environmental disclosures, including performance and claims about the benefits of using the products or services they provide.

6. Price volatility

Last year, analysts ranked the risk of price volatility as the third most significant strategic threat. In the current year, the relevance of this risk has noticeably decreased. The relationship between the price of oil and the price of natural gas has changed dramatically.

Throughout 2010, the price of "black gold" remained relatively stable, which was due to economical use, as well as a reduction in demand from the weakened economies of developed countries. The price of natural gas, however, is at a rather low level compared to previous periods due to the oversaturation of the natural gas market. In the gas industry, there are still serious differences in the pricing system in different regions. In addition, the differences also relate to the volume of state subsidies allocated to the industry (in a number of countries). The formation of a single world market for natural gas is possible only if a higher level of flexibility in the choice of suppliers is ensured, the expansion and diversification of transport routes, as well as a further transition to price formation based on the principles of competition for gas produced in different regions.

The global economic recovery remains fragile. A slowdown in recovery could have a negative impact on demand. In addition, a sharp change in prices may occur under the influence of such factors as the transformation of the political situation or amendments to the current legislation, as well as as a result of geopolitical events. For various oil and gas companies, the problem of price volatility has a different degree of relevance. The most vulnerable in the face of declining oil and gas prices are those enterprises that take part in the implementation of capital-intensive projects. Falling prices not only lead to a reduction in revenue, but also reduce the company's ability to carry out off-balance sheet financing. On the other hand, rising crude oil prices will continue to weigh heavily on refiners' bottom line.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

• A thorough reassessment of the investment strategy, including a review of the ratio of investments in exploration and production of oil and gas. This reassessment involves scenario planning for investments and asset sales based on low to mid-range oil prices, even if current oil prices are high. In addition, before investing funds, it is necessary to ensure that there is sufficient liquidity as a hedge against any potential price fluctuations.
• Econometric modeling that allows you to better understand the trends in the development of the oil and gas market. With the exception of international oil companies, this technique is often overlooked by the industry, while being potentially effective in terms of predicting price fluctuations.
• Apply sound management practices, such as cost reduction, supply chain performance assessment, and repricing investment plan and income forecast.
• To ensure higher profitability and reduce costs, companies may consider applying a hedging strategy, and tax planning to optimize cash flows.

7. Lack of human resources

The problem of shortage of highly qualified personnel remains relevant regardless of the economic situation. As the economy recovers, the industry will experience an increasing need for highly qualified specialists, the lack of which can lead to project delays or cancellations, reduced productivity levels and increased operating costs. The problem under consideration is very relevant for many NOCs against the background of their expansion of production activities and entry into new markets.

In developed countries, many of the leading engineers, senior managers and other professionals are approaching retirement age. However, there is no absolute certainty that there will be a sufficient number of specialists among the younger generation who can take their places. According to statistics published by universities in Europe and the United States, today there is a tendency to reduce the number of applicants entering engineering and geological and physical specialties. At the same time, educational institutions in developing countries are producing a record number of such specialists. However, it must be taken into account that they will need many years of practical training during professional activity to ensure that their level of training meets the needs of the industry in the 21st century.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

• To avoid duplication of functions and inefficiency, companies must define, coordinate, and centrally manage HR processes. This will allow professionals personnel service focus on HR issues.
• Creation of an attractive image of the industry for young professionals. For example, highlighting the industry's technological advances to inform the public that the industry is evolving, modernizing and progressing technologically.
• Effective use of the experience of the older generation of employees. A creative approach to the issues of organizing pensions, aimed at retaining intellectual capital. Arrangements for delayed or gradual retirement and/or employing retirees as part-time consultants should be considered.
• Professional development of employees both at the local and regional levels, combined with investment in the formation of corporate culture and staff training foreign languages. This will help to avoid language barriers and misunderstandings in the process of overcoming cultural differences between expatriate executives and local employees.

8. Supply irregularities

Supply disruption risk, which ranked ninth in the 2009 rating, remains relevant for oil and gas industry participants due to geopolitical events. The aggravation of the situation in the industry may be due to the consequences of the protracted conflict in the Middle East; sabotage of pipelines, refineries and port infrastructure; a new round of tension between Russia and the republics of the former USSR; the growth of political tension in Nigeria, as well as the general dynamics of development and the unpredictability of the political situation in Latin America. A negative consequence of these risks could be an increase in price volatility, making it difficult to strategic planning and further investment activities. More significant problems may arise in the event of an unexpected expansion of the boundaries of government intervention in the industry, changes in the conditions for joint activities, cancellation of contracts, and public unrest.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

• Investing in more stable markets, even if that means lower returns, and using long-term hedging methods such as reallocating capital to more sustainable projects.
• Implementing a flexible capital structure with a shorter turnover cycle that maximizes profits during periods of peak demand so that future downturns are pain-free. Emphasis on assets that maximize production between swings in the supply curve.
• Revision of the terms of contracts in order to ensure the reliability of supplies. Companies should carefully analyze the current level of efficiency and potential of the current supply chain in order to identify inefficient links and other weaknesses.

9. Mutual duplication of services offered by international oil and oilfield service companies

In 2010, this risk lost some of its relevance, moving from eighth to ninth position. In some segments of the industry, this risk is seen rather as an integral element of the development of the industry. Today, the role of national oil companies is increasing in connection with the use of protectionist measures by a number of countries in order to stimulate the independent development of resources. This shift in emphasis forces international oil and oilfield service companies to compete with each other in the struggle for cooperation with NOCs. Oilfield service companies are increasingly being recruited to perform functions that have traditionally been the domain of international oil companies.

At the same time, the scope of competence of international oil companies seeking to partner with NOCs coincides with the competence of oilfield service companies. For international oil and oilfield services companies, such trends are not only fraught with risks. As their new features develop on international market energy carriers, along with risks, new opportunities will arise.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

• International oil companies should take advantage of the strategic advantage over oilfield services companies in the field of program control, which is due to more extensive experience.
• Oilfield service companies need to develop long-term strategies, taking into account the higher exposure to price fluctuations compared to international and national oil companies.

The technical challenges associated with changing operating conditions both above and below ground have distinguished the oil and gas industry since its inception. In connection with the gradual transfer of exploration work to deep-sea areas, including the Arctic region, this problem will remain relevant.

10.

Last year, we classified this risk as an emerging one, but this year it has entered the top ten. First of all, this is due to the gradual shift in the attention of industry participants towards the development of deposits located in adverse natural conditions (such as deep-water deposits, as well as deposits on the Arctic shelf). In many cases, the implementation of such projects requires the use of completely new technical solutions and strategies for operating activities, as well as the organization of special training and support for personnel directly employed at oil and gas facilities. In terms of costs, as well as the degree of danger to humans, the development of such new mineral deposits far outstrips the cost (as well as the scale of possible negative consequences) of developing deposits in the past, thereby expanding the list of risks faced by oil and gas companies. In addition, there is no certainty that in the future prices will be kept at a level that justifies such a significant investment.

In addition, to minimize the risk of losing competitive advantage, oil and gas companies should continue to introduce new technologies. This implies the continued implementation of strategically significant activities in the field of R & D, regular allocation of funds for the modernization of production facilities, as well as the development of cooperation with technology solution providers.

Possible measures to manage this risk:

• Further active financing of technological developments, including those aimed at improving the technologies used in the production of hard-to-recover oil and gas in unconventional fields. Leading positions in the development of new technologies for use in exploration, production and transportation of hydrocarbons are occupied by international oil companies. At the same time, further technological progress, which made it possible to assess the potential of extracting hard-to-recover natural gas reserves, was made possible largely thanks to the efforts of independent oil and gas companies. To remain competitive and provide a favorable environment for further development, oil and gas companies must continue to invest in technology improvements.
• Creation of joint ventures with a clear governance structure that help minimize risks and create new opportunities for cooperation between IOCs, subcontractors, NOCs and local authorities state power. As part of joint activities, companies should regularly assess current and potential political risks and threats associated with counterparties in order to ensure timely action is taken to minimize and effectively manage such risks.
• Acquisition of strategically significant assets located in different geographical regions or in adverse natural conditions. Acquisitions such as these can help expand operations, staffing with professionals, and enabling the necessary R&D work.
• Organization of effective management of investment projects. Coordination of activities in the field of project management and investment programs, taking into account the capital structure, as well as approved capital construction projects, will identify and minimize the risks associated with the implementation of a particular investment program. It will also improve the effectiveness of project cost controls and the accuracy of meeting deadlines.

Directly outside the chart area

We asked industry experts to identify risks (in addition to the top 10) that lie just outside the chart and that could become relevant over the next few years.

1. Energy Policy Uncertainty (2)
2. Access to reserves: political constraints and competition for proven reserves (1)
3. Cost containment (4)
4. Deterioration financial terms company activities (5)
5. Climate change and environmental issues (7)
6. Price volatility (3)
7. Lack of human resources (6)
8. Supply breaches (9)
9. Mutual duplication of services offered by integrated oil and oilfield service companies (8)
10. New operational challenges, including those related to working in unexplored environments (new risk)
11. Outdated oil and gas infrastructure
12. Competition from new technologies, including alternative fuels
13. Access to new markets with high growth rates

11.

Despite the fact that this year this risk was not included in the top ten, it still remains relevant for participants in the oil and gas industry. An outdated oil and gas infrastructure can not only jeopardize a company's operations, but also negatively affect its perception by society, as well as business relations with partners. For example, the deterioration of offshore oil and gas infrastructure facilities leads to the need for continuous monitoring and control of their condition, maintenance and repair work. At the same time, older refineries face greater challenges in complying with environmental regulations. Despite the understanding by industry participants of the urgent need to modernize outdated infrastructure and the volume of capital investments required for this, the risks that oil and gas companies will have to face if no action is taken in this direction are also obvious. Financial assistance and support from the state is possible only for new projects, but the main burden of their implementation will be borne by individual companies.

12. Competition from new technologies, including alternative fuels

Advances in the energy industry, including the development of micro-energy and the construction of greenhouse-neutral houses, will help redefine the relationship between consumers and producers, as well as transform the energy market as a whole. It is expected that it is in this market that the demand for gas will grow most dynamically. In addition, continuous improvements in fuel cell and biofuel technologies are making them increasingly competitive with conventional fuels in terms of everyday use.

13. Access to new markets with high growth rates

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which unites 32 states, was created to discuss issues of socio-economic development and make decisions on them. Energy consumption is expected to rise sharply in non-OECD countries. At the same time, in the states that are members of this international organization, a decrease in demand for oil is expected. The growth of oil and gas companies will be constrained precisely by the limited access to these new markets for the provision of services for the processing and marketing of oil and gas. The above is confirmed by the conditions under which the transfer of oil refining capacities outside the OECD countries is carried out. As for international oil companies, their further growth will be associated with activities in the oil and gas exploration and production segment.

Main risks by industry segments

Unlike previous years, in preparing the 2010 report, we analyzed the top 10 risks inherent in the industry as a whole in order to identify the most pressing threats in the field of oil and gas exploration and production, their transportation and storage, processing and marketing. In addition, our analysis also touched upon the field of oilfield services. As part of the value creation process in the energy industry, the considered segments are interconnected with each other, but their business models differ significantly. Thus, despite the significance of each of the risks for the industry as a whole, the degree of its relevance for specific segments is different. In addition, risks are unevenly distributed across industry segments due to differences in priorities. For example, an increase in crude oil prices is putting upstream companies in an advantageous position, while refiners are losing their bottom line.

Below we would like to reiterate our own classification of industry segments:

• Exploration and production - conducting exploration and production by international (IOC), independent and national oil companies (NOC)
• Transportation and storage - field gathering, preparation, transportation and storage of oil and gas
• Refining and marketing of oil and gas
• Oilfield services (OSS), including service companies and supply chain.

Risks in oil and gas exploration and production

The activities of companies engaged in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons are carried out in dynamically developing regions of the world. Doing business in an environment of uncertainty negatively affects the ability of these companies to manage risk and make long-term investments. The following provides information on the key risks for companies whose main activity is the exploration and production of hydrocarbons (HC) raw materials. The risks are listed in order of their importance.

Energy Policy Uncertainty

The lack of certainty about upcoming changes in legal and regulatory requirements makes it difficult to implement the long-term investment strategy that is so necessary to ensure the sustainable development of companies involved in the exploration and production of oil and gas. Uncertainty about energy policy priorities remains this year. This is partly due to the vagueness of the results of the climate change conference held in Copenhagen in December 2009. On the other hand, the situation of uncertainty in the area under consideration is due to the inability of the United States to develop a clear energy policy.

In the United States, the administration of President Barack Obama is proposing a series of amendments to tax laws and other regulations that could lead to a slowdown in the oil and gas industry. Today, many countries are demonstrating their intention to revise the current safety standards for offshore drilling. This is due, among other things, to the recent disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, which resulted in a large-scale oil spill. In addition, the growing concern of the world community in connection with the use of hydraulic fracturing in the development of shale gas deposits may lead to the introduction of additional regulatory requirements.

An increase in legislative initiatives, a reduction in the frequency of reviews, and an increase in potential liabilities should certainly be taken into account when forecasting performance at the global level. The introduction of additional regulations is likely to increase costs. To ensure a stable level of profit and the ability to recover the costs of exploration activities that have not yielded results, companies should continue to look for opportunities to reduce operating costs, while acting in accordance with the requirements of environmental legislation and safety regulations.

Access to reserves: political constraints and competition for proven reserves

The risks associated with ensuring access to mineral resources are due to both geographical and geopolitical factors. The search for new deposits is forcing companies to move exploration into increasingly remote areas, thereby raising not only costs but also risks.

For developing countries, political instability and the nationalization of natural resources can cause supply disruptions. The instability of the geopolitical situation has led to the emergence of a number of risks associated with ensuring access to reserves. In the case of international oil companies, the profitability of their activities in developing countries will depend on the availability of opportunities to ensure stable access to hydrocarbon reserves. Unfortunately, even when international oil companies gain access to reserves, they do not always have the opportunity to start developing them. This problem is especially acute in regions that are characterized by the nationalization of natural resources and a sharp change in the political regime. Strong competition from NOCs puts international oil companies in even greater uncertainty about the sustainability of access to resources and, to a lesser extent, reducing the profitability of the project.

Companies involved in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons should also ensure a balanced ratio of oil and natural gas reserves. Compared to oil, natural gas is considered a relatively environmentally friendly fossil fuel. It is estimated that in Russia, the Middle East, North America, in Africa and elsewhere on the planet, natural gas reserves are so large that they will be enough to meet world demand for the next century, and possibly longer. In addition, today natural gas is seen as a kind of bridge that facilitates the transition to a low-carbon economy. Gas companies have great potential for further development, since natural gas can become the main fuel for a number of industries, including electricity, heating and transport. The growing importance of natural gas will force many oil and gas companies to rethink their investment policy priorities. Even those companies whose activities today are exclusively related to oil have already begun (or, with a high degree of probability, will begin) to show an active interest in natural gas production.

Price Volatility

The price of oil remained relatively stable throughout 2010, driven by moderate consumption as well as reduced demand from recessionary developed countries. However, it should be noted that the global economic recovery is still fragile. Any slowdown in the pace of recovery could lead to lower global oil prices. As a result of falling prices, there is not only a reduction in revenue - the company's ability to finance is limited. As for natural gas, its prices remain at extremely low levels, despite a slight increase noted in recent times. The decline in the price of natural gas calls into question the profitability of the development of many fields.

Climate change and environmental issues

In the oil and gas industry, environmental concerns have not only led to an increase in new legislation, but have also made it much more difficult to predict their future application. State regulation is based on several contradictory tasks: ensuring energy security, availability of resources and meeting demand. The value of a particular task can change at any time. An unexpected downturn in the global economy, for example, could cause a suspension of legislative activity or force governments to extend the deadlines needed to meet regulatory requirements.

Conflicting opinions are actively expressed in the United States today regarding negative impact oil and gas complex on the environment, including as a result of the use of hydraulic fracturing technology in order to significantly increase the well production rate. The situation is similar in other countries, where issues of environmental safety and health protection are gradually becoming more and more relevant. In the future, when making decisions regarding the strategic development of companies in the oil and gas industry, they will continue to be forced to take into account the serious concerns of the world community about the state of the environment and ensuring safety.

Deteriorating financial conditions for companies

Further tightening of tax requirements for exploration and production in 2010 and beyond seems almost inevitable. The reduction in budget revenues due to the crisis forced the governments of many countries to actively search for ways to replenish the state treasury. Exploration and production companies are an ideal source of such revenue, and therefore, at the moment, many of them are forced to reconsider their tax positions and develop new strategies to optimize the supply chain from a tax perspective.

New operational difficulties, including those related to working in unexplored conditions

Exploration and production under extreme conditions (eg in the Arctic) often forces companies to develop new technologies or finance their development. The need for additional capital investments, as well as the difficulties associated with the construction, operation and maintenance of oil and gas infrastructure facilities in such difficult environmental conditions, lead to increased risks. A fall in commodity prices below a certain level may make further exploitation of the deposit unprofitable. As demand grows with limited mineral reserves, the only way to increase the resource base and, accordingly, future profits is to explore and develop deposits located in hard-to-reach areas with harsh natural conditions.

Energy Policy Uncertainty: The Consequences of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill and Their Impact on Offshore Field Development

The consequences of a large-scale environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico have affected companies involved in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons on the continental shelf not only in this region, but also far beyond its borders. Discussions on oil spill response and liability issues will obviously continue.

Oil and gas fields on the continental shelf are an integral part of the global fuel and energy system. From the point of view of the long term, ignoring such significant reserves or imposing a ban on their development seems unlikely. In addition to existing offshore fields, huge oil and gas reserves are concentrated in the deep waters of the World Ocean, on the boundaries of the territorial waters of Brazil, Africa, Southeast Asia and Oceania, as well as in the regions of the Arctic and Antarctic. However, there is no certainty that in the near future industry participants will be able to continue their activities in a number of existing and new areas. The resumption of activity will be possible only if the confidence of the world community in such projects is fully restored. The true causes of the Deepwater Horizon accident need to be identified and carefully analyzed. Appropriate security measures must be taken to minimize the likelihood of such a disaster occurring again.

Industry participants should prove to regulators and stakeholders that all relevant conclusions regarding the organization of measures to eliminate the consequences of the accident have been taken and in the future such measures will be taken quickly and efficiently, taking into account the minimization of negative impact on the environment. The following questions need to be considered:

1. Assessing the risks associated with the production of offshore oil and gas fields in the current period

All operating companies must conduct a comprehensive assessment of the technical condition of the production facilities used. In an assessment that should cover all critical equipment, special attention should be paid to parameters such as the type of devices used, their actual age, maintenance history, etc.

In addition, the structure of the current technological process to include activities for regular testing and maintenance of critical equipment. As part of such an assessment, consideration should be given to upgrading or upgrading existing equipment to mitigate risks in this area, even if such measures are not explicitly provided for by applicable law or regulations. And finally, it is necessary to revise the conditions contractual relations between partners and subcontractors to ensure that they comply with all requirements that ensure the safety of operational activities.

2. Assessing the risks associated with future offshore oil and gas production

When considering investment issues, organizations intending to participate in joint projects for the development of offshore fields should pay special attention to the following aspects:

• When planning science-intensive projects, the implementation of which requires the use of advanced technological solutions, the issue of eliminating the consequences of possible large-scale disasters should be resolved, including the formation of an operational action plan and the provision of appropriate technical equipment.
• Closer attention should be paid to whether the partner or subcontractor has relevant experience and knowledge in the implementation of similar projects.
• The financial capacity of the partner or subcontractor should be carefully reviewed to assess its ability to fund clean-up obligations in the worst-case scenario.
• When choosing a site for prospecting and exploration, it is necessary to take into account factors such as proximity to major settlements, environmentally sensitive areas and regions with intensive business activity.

3. Elimination of consequences of accidents

It is clear that the oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico has spurred industry participants to think about the most effective ways prevent similar accidents in the future, on ways to stop oil leaks from a damaged deepwater well, as well as on measures aimed at eliminating the consequences. Today it is also obvious that the transition to the active development of deep-water deposits has led to the fact that the existing technical means and technologies for preventing and eliminating the consequences of accidents no longer meet modern requirements.

Industry participants should certainly share this experience, and welcome the establishment of nonprofit partnerships like the Marine Well Containment Co., a joint venture between ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, ConocoPhillips and Chevron. Among the priority measures to prevent

catastrophes similar to the one that occurred in the Gulf of Mexico, one can single out the improvement of the design of the plug, the development of special deep-sea reservoirs and a highly flexible riser, which ensures the delivery of oil products from the damaged well to the surface. Equally important is the presence of ships for the collection and storage of oil products, teams of specialists whose tasks would include regular maintenance and inspection, as well as ensuring the constant readiness of equipment designed to eliminate the consequences of such accidents. The activities being undertaken today by industry players to enhance cooperation and mutual support should be complemented by involving regulators and stakeholders in the process. This will further convince the latter that the risks associated with exploration and production in deep water are under control.

Risks in the field of transportation and storage of oil and gas ("midstream")

The activity of companies in this industry segment is concentrated around the field gathering, preparation, transportation and storage of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas. In general, companies involved in the transportation and storage of petroleum products are less exposed to the risks of volatility in energy prices compared to their partners involved in the exploration, production, processing and marketing of hydrocarbons. The following is information on the key risks for companies whose main activity is concentrated in the field of exploration and production of hydrocarbons. The risks are listed in order of their importance.

Cost containment

The problem of reducing the costs associated with the implementation of projects remains relevant for companies in the midstream segment, especially with regard to the planned expansion of the production infrastructure. Due to the need to develop new natural gas reserves (shale gas fields in the US, China and Eastern Europe) to meet growing demand, companies are forced to expand the infrastructure of the pipeline network, including the construction of new natural gas production and gathering systems. The implementation of projects in the "midstream" segment, as a rule, is associated with a higher level of risks associated with the need to make significant investments in tangible assets. In this regard, the issues of ensuring the effectiveness of project management and reducing costs are of particular relevance for the successful implementation of the planned expansion of production capacities. This is one of the most important tasks for companies, the solution of which will determine the ability of oil and gas enterprises not only to maintain, but also to expand the scale of production activities. In the long term, cost minimization will require continuous improvement in operational processes as well as a more effective resource planning strategy. The effectiveness of the company's policy to reduce operating costs will be of key importance.

No less important is the reduction of costs associated with the increase in infrastructure capacity. Companies in the industry need to constantly monitor the availability of external financing, address security issues in relation to tangible assets. In addition, international and transit risks must be managed, as well as prepared for possible regulatory intervention, which could increase the cost of capital required for the project.

Energy Policy Uncertainty

The uncertainty of the scenario for the development of the energy industry and further actions by the regulatory authorities is the cause of very significant risks for the participants in the segment under consideration. At the heart of the policy of state regulation are several contradictory tasks: ensuring energy security and availability of resources, as well as meeting demand. The importance of a particular task can change at any time. Many regulatory requirements lead to increased costs, some of which cannot be compensated in a competitive environment.

Uncertainty in regulatory requirements may lead to delays in making decisions regarding investment activities. Moreover, initiatives by regulators may lead oil and gas companies to withdraw from investments or cause some of their assets to depreciate. Examples of the negative impact of this regulatory uncertainty include the Alaska gas pipeline projects and the proposed expansion of an oil pipeline used to transport Canadian tar sands to US refineries. The need to expand the pipeline infrastructure may become irrelevant if restrictions are imposed on drilling in the deep water zone. Another possible consequence of such a decision could be the depreciation of the existing infrastructure of the pipeline network. The same is true for the use of hydraulic fracturing technology. The imposition of restrictions on its use can significantly reduce the pace of development of new gas fields and lead to a revision of forecasts regarding the economic feasibility of projects for the construction of new potentially necessary infrastructure facilities designed for processing and transporting shale gases.

Climate change and environmentalProblems

In terms of environmental impact, this segment of the industry is also most directly affected by amendments to regulations governing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The ongoing debate around the issue of regulating the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions data makes it difficult to predict possible outcomes in the long term. In particular, midstream companies should decide whether to calculate and account for carbon emissions in aggregate for all production units or separately for each of them. In addition, when considering the expansion of transport infrastructure through the construction of new facilities in environmentally sensitive areas, it is necessary to take into account public concerns about possible environmental consequences.

Risks in the field of processing and marketing of oil and gas

The growth of oil refining production in the world is gradually starting to exceed the level of world demand, which will force companies in the oil refining segment to reduce production volumes by eliminating obsolete and inefficient capacities from the technological process. This may entail additional expenses associated with obligations to carry out nature restoration work. In addition, issues of ensuring operational security will remain highly relevant. The following is information on the key risks for companies whose main activity is concentrated in the field of processing and marketing of oil and gas. The risks are listed in order of their importance.

Energy Policy Uncertainty

Energy policies that encourage phasing out of oil for economic or environmental reasons will reduce demand and profitability. At the same time, the energy policy, which provides for a reduction in domestic oil production, will significantly affect the activities of exploration, production and oilfield service companies. Moreover, such a policy could lead to increased dependence on oil imports. In any case, the lack of clarity about the essence of energy policy is fraught with the emergence of a number of problems for processing and marketing companies.

Climate change and environmental issues

An effective energy policy, including climate change issues, can, depending on the structure, have a significant impact on the activities of oil refining and marketing companies. In the recent past, several proposals have been submitted to the US Congress to limit the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from industry through quotas. This policy is aimed primarily at companies in the fuel and energy sector. Acceptance of other proposals for the use of alternative fuels potentially means an additional burden for participants in the motor fuel segment.

Today, the EU countries, China and a number of other countries are assessing their own potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions or are implementing policies that stimulate the reduction of their emissions. In the future, the refining segment will retain its leading position as a stable and reliable source of motor fuel and feedstock for other industries. At the same time, refiners should take into account the penetration of alternative fuels into the market, the implementation of which can be carried out both together with traditional fuels and in parallel with it. This will diversify energy sources in the future, reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Successful development in this area, the ability to adapt to changes in the structure of demand and the requirements of environmental legislation will require companies in the oil refining segment to make significant investments.

Price Volatility

Portfolio management and investment strategy will continue to be affected by price volatility, which affects the bottom line of refiners and retailers. The pressure that the oil refining industry is experiencing in connection with the need to maintain the required level of liquidity is due to the fact that the volume of production capacities today exceeds demand. The construction of new refineries, as well as the expansion of existing production throughout the last decade, has led to an increase in production capacity to a mark exceeding the level of world demand. Active portfolio management in the oil and gas refining and marketing segment is traditionally inherent in large, vertically integrated oil companies. A similar practice today should be adopted by independent oil refineries. If the market situation and the goals of strategic development change, accordingly, there are changes in the requirements regarding the structuring of the asset portfolio. The portfolio structure should ensure the achievement of the performance goals set by management and shareholders.

Throughout 2010, all the efforts of independent refiners were aimed at providing liquidity and optimizing cash flows. Achieving profitability targets involves more than just improving margins. It's a matter of survival.

Access to new markets with high growth rates

Provided that the further recovery of the global economy is sustainable, refiners will directly benefit from a gradual, but at the same time, strong growth in oil demand. It will be critical for refiners and in particular for integrated international oil companies to be able to meet growing demand (primarily from Asian countries). However, it should be noted that in 2010 the problems caused by the uncertainty of the vector of further development of the global economy will continue to have a significant impact on risk management processes in the segment under consideration.

Outdated oil and gas infrastructure

The depreciation of oil refineries is the cause of a number of risks in the field of industrial safety, environmental protection and competitiveness. The longer refineries are in operation, the more difficult it is for companies to comply with all environmental regulations. In addition, due to the aging of refining capacities, companies are often unable to process viscous oils, which are becoming more common today due to the depletion of sweet oil fields. Both factors contribute to the growing need to build new oil refining infrastructure facilities or modernize existing ones.

Overcapacity and deteriorating infrastructure may warrant the consolidation of operations or the closure of certain refineries. In some cases, the closure of production facilities will be due to the high costs required to comply with regional regulations. The applicable regulations may differ significantly from state to state, and in federal countries such as the United States, even at the state level.

Some of the risks under consideration can be minimized through strategic investment. However, investments are fraught with risks of a different nature. For example, the investment policy of refiners may be aimed at upgrading the technological base to enable the processing of sour crude, but such a policy justifies itself only in markets that support a certain level of crack spread yield. From the standpoint of a single refiner, investing in the ability to process different grades of oil can ultimately prove to be both an effective and inefficient investment decision.

In 2010, the construction of new oil refineries will continue, especially in developing countries such as China or India. However, it should be noted that a shift in the timing of implementation is expected for a number of construction projects. At the same time, some projects will be canceled due to a decrease in demand for gasoline, tightening of credit conditions and general uncertainty about the further development of the global economy. In the United States and European countries, the situation is somewhat different. The increase in oil refining capacities will occur not due to the construction of new facilities, but due to an increase in the capacity of existing enterprises. In addition, many companies do not have the funds to properly maintain their aging infrastructure. As a result, a paradoxical situation is emerging - the industry is characterized by the presence of a significant production potential against the backdrop of the increasingly urgent problem of aging capacities.

Risks in the field of oilfield services

The development of oilfield services is still driven by competition between its participants in the development and development of new technologies. At the same time, in the segment under consideration, there is a shift in emphasis towards the establishment and development of partnerships with companies engaged in the exploration and production of hydrocarbons. The risks inherent in the field of oilfield services are no less significant than those that participants in other segments have to deal with. Below is information on the key risks for oilfield services companies. The risks are listed in order of their importance.

New operational difficulties, including those related to working in unexplored conditions

The risk of new difficulties arising related to the implementation of operating activities, including in unexplored natural and climatic conditions, is very significant for the participants in the segment under consideration. An increasing number of oilfield services companies are moving their activities to overseas regions with extreme environmental conditions. The specifics of the tax regime, the established business practices and problems associated with the need to staff the staff at the expense of local population when operating abroad, can have a very direct impact on the level of operational risks that an oilfield service company will face. The problems associated with the implementation of operational activities should also include the high degree of complexity of the project, the remoteness of the geographic location, the need to use new technologies and the possibility of negative environmental consequences. Moreover, today the task of ensuring that the interests of operating companies correspond to the interests of oilfield service enterprises acting as contractors is becoming more and more urgent.

Cost containment

The implementation plan of a project should include measures aimed at reducing costs in all parts of the supply chain. High-quality implementation of the project is the key to making a profit. As the complexity of projects increases, their implementation becomes more risky and difficult - both in terms of meeting deadlines and approved budgets, and in terms of ensuring an adequate level of quality and industrial safety.

Manufacturing and engineering companies typically have more than one choice when deciding on a source of supply. In this regard, an increasing number of oilfield services enterprises are calculating the relative cost of ensuring their compliance with legal requirements in the course of their activities. They often relocate production activities to developing countries where the costs of compliance, production, etc. may be lower. At the same time, the transfer of operations to offshore jurisdictions should take into account the requirements of local legislation when concluding contracts with NOCs in regions such as South America and Africa. The global financial crisis helped consolidate the practice of applying such requirements at the legislative level, thereby expanding the list of risks that oilfield service companies have to deal with. In case of violation of this requirement, the government of the country in which the oilfield services company is concentrated can impose a fine on it, force it to revise the terms of contracts, etc., up to and including a requirement to terminate activities in the country.

In addition, an increase in the number of regulations is likely to increase the cost of drilling operations due to an increase in the number of inspections and certifications, as well as due to equipment redundancy. Equipment manufacturers, for example, are expected to benefit from retooling, redundancy and accelerated depreciation processes. However, overall demand for services and equipment could decline if rising costs and deteriorating economic performance force operators to cut costs. Rising costs of operations in such regions may lead to the direction of part of the funds to national or developed international markets.

Mutual duplication of services offered by international oil and oilfield service companies

As a measure to mitigate the risks associated with the need to reduce costs, some oilfield services companies have consolidated operations or made asset sales or strategic acquisitions to strengthen their market positions. Individual oilfield services companies have implemented a number of measures aimed at expanding specialization in areas that have traditionally been perceived as an integral part of the core business of MNCs. This was done in order to expand the range of services offered by oilfield service companies. As a result, today there is a mutual duplication of services offered by international oil and oilfield service companies. To strengthen their own competitive position with IOCs, some NSCs have established joint ventures with non-competing companies, despite the fact that joint activities at the international level are associated with legal, political and economic risks. These risks require effective management both internally (i.e. directly by the companies involved in the joint venture) and outside the joint venture (i.e. in cooperation with NOCs and local authorities). As margins in this segment continue to decline, many oilfield services companies will be forced to look for new ways to ensure profitability of their activities with the transition to risk management within new operating models.

Deteriorating financial conditions for companies

The tightening of taxation requirements is another problem faced by companies in the oilfield services segment. Oilfield services companies, most of which operate through international partnerships, are increasingly facing an increasing tax burden, as well as increasing costs associated with tax issues in relation to a complex supply chain operating under a variety of tax regimes. Individual NSCs are moving their headquarters to jurisdictions with more favorable tax treatment. We expect this trend to continue in the future as countries review their existing taxation systems amid fluctuations in exchange rates and changing market conditions.

Outdated oil and gas infrastructure

The costs associated with equipment and its maintenance, as well as compliance with safety requirements, will maintain current growth rates. This year, the risk caused by the deterioration of oil and gas infrastructure facilities was not included in the top ten, however, its relevance for the segment under consideration is still high, which is due to the need to ensure regular Maintenance aging oil and gas infrastructure. The security issues of infrastructure and equipment will undoubtedly remain fully relevant.

Climate change and environmental issues

For a significant proportion of oilfield services companies seeking to increase their share of the value chain in their current operations, environmental protection, employee health and safety have become more important. As deep-water offshore oil production systems develop and fields located in extreme natural conditions or remote regions are developed, oilfield services companies will be forced to re-evaluate existing and find new ways to reduce risks and better control the possible environmental consequences of their activities.

Typically, a risk is an event that is most likely to happen. As a result of this, various cases can occur - neutral or negative. Speaking about ecology, the level of probability of a negative impact, negative consequences that are dangerous to human life, the safety of natural resources, historical, cultural and material values ​​associated with natural disasters, as well as other factors constitute an environmental risk.

Risk management in general includes the adoption and implementation of management decisions. They should improve the workflow and increase the rate of positive consequences during the occurrence of risks. It is possible to understand the degree of environmental risk by assessing environmental events, disasters, as well as the impact of pollution on the environment.

Let's consider the results of work in the field of risk management using the example of JSC Atomredmetzoloto.

Organization of ARMZ risk management process

The company has made it a rule to carry out a risk assessment procedure at the planning stage, as well as to implement risk hedging programs.

To avoid unpleasant situations, the company is guided by the following aspects:

Modernization of technological equipment;

Compliance with all applicable regulations regarding the production and technological process;

Implementation of the controlling function, both on the part of departments and external organizations;

Civil liability insurance of enterprises to third parties and employees of enterprises.

JSC Atomredmetzoloto complies with all environmental impact standards and contributes to improving environmental safety, which is what the government requires.

Unfortunately, it should be noted that recently natural environment greatly affected by human activity. Violating environmental requirements, we destroy, destroy, pollute the world around us. Take, for example, shale gas production. Much can be said about its harm to the environment.

For example, due to the fact that this activity is an environmental threat, .

Classification of negative environmental impact factors

Pollution can be classified into natural and anthropogenic. Natural are caused by natural phenomena, such as floods, volcanic eruptions, etc. Anthropogenic pollution arises from human activities.

Risk Management in Business Practice

Management of environmental risks in the enterprise, as a rule, is associated with various types of tasks.

For example, the joint-stock financial corporation Sistema conducts an analysis of the effectiveness of the risk management and internal control system every quarter, then evaluates the corporation and all subsidiaries, and then reports on this to shareholders. An annual report is provided to members of the Board of Directors.

An integrated risk management system helps to identify risks at all its stages, analyze them and arrange them by management levels.

In 2013, Sistema's Board of Directors created the Internal Control and Audit Department.

The Department of Internal Control and Audit conducts verification activities in order to obtain reliable information about the actions. And another no less important element of the work of the Internal Control and Audit Department is the improvement domestic business- company processes.

The key point of an effective environmental risk management system is the identification of risks and direct work with them. The question is how to manage environmental risks to ensure the highest degree of sustainability in all activities of the company - this contributes to success and reduces the rate of failure.

For environmental risk management processes, research results are of great importance. In the course of preparing the necessary environmental projects, all points must be taken into account. Both quantitative and quality characteristics risk.

A wide variety of regulatory documents are being developed to prevent or reduce risk. And the scope of these documents can apply not only to one company, but to the entire country. These include legislative and regulations concerning health protection, improvement of working conditions, road safety, standardization of the quality of goods sold, as well as reducing the negative impact, which is a detrimental factor in relation to the environment.

Analysis and assessment of environmental risks

Risk analysis and assessment plays a key role in building an effective response system. To analyze and assess environmental risks, it is necessary to identify hazards and causes.

Compliance with the conditions for effective management of social and environmental risks will contribute to the sustainable development of companies.

The risk management process includes a comparison of alternative projects of potentially hazardous facilities and technologies, identifying the most dangerous risk factors that are in effect at this stage. Databases and knowledge bases for expert decision support systems are also being created. And this process also determines investments that are precisely aimed at reducing risks.

It is important to compare the results of the risk assessment. After that, you can find different solutions to reduce them, given that each of these options is evaluated differently. It all depends on necessary costs for its implementation. And such actions are repeated until the best solution to the problem is chosen.

Standardization issues,ISO 14000

Modern management literature is replete with various approaches. In particular, many companies use ISO 9000 (international quality management standard), ISO 50001 (energy management standard), ISO 22000 (international food safety management standard) and others. With regard to the topic of ecology, ISO has released standard 14,000 - environmental management.