Improving the adoption process management decisions can be done using expert methods.

Since the optimization process is expensive, it is advisable to use it when solving strategic and tactical problems. Operational tasks should be solved using, as a rule, simple, heuristic methods.

The number of possible concrete methods is almost as great as the number of problems for which they have been developed. The most common will be described below.

Jury opinion. This method consists in combining and averaging the opinions of experts in relevant fields. An informal variation of this method is brainstorming, during which the participants first try to generate as many ideas as possible. Only after the generation process is stopped are some ideas evaluated. This can be time consuming but often produces useful results, especially when an organization needs many new ideas and alternatives.

Aggregate opinion of marketers. Experienced salespeople are often excellent at predicting future demand. They are intimately familiar with customers and can take into account their recent actions faster than they can build. quantitative model. In addition, good trading agent at a certain time interval, the market often “feels” in fact more accurately than quantitative models.

consumer expectation model. A forecast based on the results of a survey of the organization's customers. They are asked to evaluate their own future needs as well as new requirements. By collecting all the data obtained in this way and adjusting for over- or underestimation based on their own experience, the manager is often able to accurately predict aggregate demand.

Method of expert assessments. This method is a procedure that allows a group of experts to come to an agreement. The experts complete a detailed questionnaire about the problem under consideration. They also write down their opinions about her. Each expert then receives a summary of the other experts' answers and is asked to re-examine their prediction, and if it does not match the others' predictions, they are asked to explain why. The procedure is usually repeated three or four times until the experts reach a consensus.

Development of practical recommendations for improving the process of making managerial decisions

For enterprises with less than 100 employees, an initiative target technology for the development and adoption of managerial decisions can be used.

As mentioned earlier, the company "Leader" LLC operates in the wholesale and retail market and, taking into account the mission of the organization, namely the expansion of the distribution network, it is necessary to transfer all the functions related to decision-making on the development of a new product and its promotion within its distribution network to another division.

When developing a new product, a company needs to develop a technology in which we must decide how to organize the supply of goods and its implementation. To develop technology, we use the algorithm for developing technology for the development and adoption of managerial decisions shown in Figure 2.

Rice. 2 - Algorithm for the development of technology for the development and adoption of SD

First of all, let's consider the development process with the help of an initiative-target technology for the development and adoption of managerial decisions. This technology is based on the issuance of tasks for the development and adoption of management decisions, without specifying the means and methods for their implementation.

It is designed for an enterprising and professional performer, whether it be a manager or a specific employee. The technology provides for the development by the head only ultimate goal management and its accompanying tasks, as well as the deadline without specifying the mechanism for achieving it. This technology has the following characteristics:

management decision is developed for the company's staff of no more than 100 people, so that possible failures do not bring large losses to the company;

· the time for completing the task should not exceed one month from the date of its issuance, also in order to avoid losses;

the presence of a high level of professionalism of the staff or great confidence in him on the part of the head;

production of new goods, services, information or knowledge;

the presence of stable informal relationships in the team, to speed up the receipt of assistance in the process of completing the task.

And so, the company's management decided to bring a new product. Tasks:

Bringing a new brand to an existing market

ensure the presentation of this product in chain stores and chain restaurants;

· creation positive opinion about the new product.

Using initiative-target technology, the company's management brings this goal to managers, respectively, without informing how the goal-task should be fulfilled. In such a situation, the actions of the manager come down to developing their own process for solving the tasks.

We model the situation. We need to start working with large network shops. To do this, the manager independently develops an action plan and implements it. Suppose we have two ways:

1. Enter into direct negotiations with the leadership of this network, which is often quite problematic. And in the course of negotiations, choose a variant of cooperation that would suit both parties.

2. Having contacts with friendly - partner companies that already have existing contracts with networks to offer new beer to them, since in such a situation we lose part of our income, since the price at which we give beer is not directly to the store, but through a distributor below, but we get the presence of beer in the chain of stores, which is our ultimate goal.

We chose the first option and are ready to independently enter into negotiations with the management of the chain of stores. To do this, we prepare a preliminary offer, we prepare a description of the product indicating its properties and unique features, we prepare samples.

If the negotiation process was successful, then we, having fulfilled the goal, begin to deal with the issue of monitoring the fulfillment of the obligations of the parties. Using some merchandising opportunities, we track the movement of the product, its layout, and conduct research on consumer demand. To improve the quality of sales, we advertising companies and activities to promote the product to a wider consumer market. Due to his professional skills, the manager independently models the situation and looks for solutions.

The manager is responsible for the implementation of the decision in this company, he determines:

· the terms and parameters of the implementation of the solution, when using the initiative target technology, this time is limited to a month;

Resources by means of which the project will be implemented;

The result of the decision must fully comply with the goals that were set by the authorities.

Providing alternative options for management decisions

One of the conditions for improving the quality and efficiency of a management decision is to ensure the multivariance of decisions, that is, it is necessary to work out at least three organizational and technical options for performing the same function to achieve the goal (for example, two metal sheets can be connected by the following technological methods: welding, soldering, gluing, riveting, bolting, etc. The task of a specialist is to choose a connection that would perform the required functions efficiently and simultaneously with minimal costs for developing a problem, manufacturing and construction operation).

Alternative options for management decisions should be brought into a comparable form according to the following factors:

1) The time factor (the time of implementation of projects or investments).

2) The quality factor of the object.

3) Factor of scale (volume) of production of the object.

4) The level of development of the object in production.

5) The method of obtaining information for making a management decision.

6) Conditions of operation (application) of the object.

7) Inflation factor.

8) Risk factor and uncertainty.

The comparability of alternative options for the listed eight factors is ensured, as a rule, when substantiating technical, organizational or economic measures aimed at improving the particular indicators of the target subsystem of the management system (indicators of quality and resource intensity of products, organizational and technical level of production, the level of social development of the team, environmental problems), as well as the development of enabling, managed or control subsystems, improving links with the external environment of the system.

The task of the decision maker is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of specific situations in order to ensure comparability in the maximum number of factors. The fewer factors taken into account, the less accurate the investment efficiency forecast.

Basic rules for ensuring the comparability of alternative options for management decisions:

1) The number of alternatives must be at least three.

2) The newest solution in terms of time should be taken as the base solution. The remaining alternative options are reduced to the base one using corrective coefficients.

3) The formation of alternative options should be carried out on the terms of ensuring High Quality and effectiveness of management decisions.

4) To reduce time, improve the quality of the solution and reduce costs, it is recommended to apply coding methods and application software.

To the analysis, as well as to other functions of management, scientific approaches and principles should be applied. Specific principles of analysis include the following:

1) The principle of the unity of analysis and synthesis involves the decomposition into constituent parts of the analyzed complex phenomena, objects with the aim of in-depth study of their properties and subsequent consideration of them as a whole in interconnection and interdependence;

2) The principle of highlighting the leading link (ranking factors) involves setting goals and establishing ways to achieve this goal. At the same time, the main (leading) link is always singled out, using the methods of factor analysis and problem structuring;

3) The principle of ensuring the comparability of analysis options in terms of volume, quality, timing, methods of obtaining information and conditions for the use of objects of analysis and other conditions;

4) The principle of efficiency and timeliness of the analysis is aimed at reducing the time of work by implementing the principles of rational organization partial processes (proportionality, parallelism, directness, continuity, rhythm, etc.), coding and automation information support, improving the quality of information and methods of analysis;

5) The principle of quantitative certainty involves a quantitative expression:

a) parameters and conditions for ensuring comparability and optimization of alternative options for management decisions;

b) links between the components of the management system;

c) the degree of uncertainty and risk in making a decision.

Classification of methods and techniques of analysis and their scope

For the convenience of studying the material, we divide the article management decisions into topics:

In this regard, leading domestic and foreign economists point out that one of the most important reasons for such discrepancies is the differences in the efficiency of enterprise management or, in other words, in the effectiveness of management decisions developed and implemented by managers.

In general terms, the effectiveness of enterprise management is understood as the effectiveness of managing the activities of an enterprise, which is a consequence of the ability of managers to develop effective management decisions and achieve their goals.

Many economists are of the opinion that the effectiveness of management is a function of two variables: the costs of developing management decisions and maintaining the management apparatus, on the one hand, and the results management activities, reflected in the change in the values ​​of indicators that evaluate the state of the control object. Level economic efficiency is the most important characteristic of the management system and the quality of management decisions.

When evaluating the effectiveness of management decisions, it is necessary to provide a synthesis of economic and social aspects of management. In accordance with this, a system of performance evaluation criteria should also be developed.

As performance criteria, indicators such as profit growth, production and sales volumes, changes in capital investments, increase in working capital turnover, increase in economic profitability, reduction in costs of maintaining the administrative apparatus, etc. can be used.

Ultimately, almost all of them lead to an increase. The quantitative changes resulting from the implementation of a management decision are called the economic effect.

As a basis for determining the economic effect, the planned values ​​of indicators of financial and economic activity at an existing enterprise or similar enterprises for newly created firms are taken.

Everyone recognizes that the process of evaluating the effectiveness of management decisions is not an end in itself, but acts as a lever for using reserves to increase efficiency. social production. Evaluation of the effectiveness of a management decision acts as a measure of the appropriateness of changes in the management system of an enterprise, firm, and, ultimately, should determine the nature and content of specific changes in the activities of an enterprise, organization.

The economic assessment of the effectiveness of a management decision cannot be considered in isolation from the assessment of production efficiency. But the direct use of performance measurement may be insensitive to changes in management. Therefore, it is necessary to look for more specific, narrow indicators of the effectiveness of the management itself.

Principles for evaluating the effectiveness of the development of management decisions.

It is advisable to single out some principles for evaluating managerial decisions. These include:

1) the complexity of assessing the effectiveness of management decisions;
2) objectivity in the assessment of management decisions;
3) mandatory assessment of the effectiveness of management decisions;
4) compliance of the assessment method with the nature of the control object;
5) comparability of indicators for evaluating various management decisions;
6) accounting individual features enterprise, managerial situation when building a model for evaluating the effectiveness of a managerial decision.

Analysis of the problem of assessing the economic efficiency of management decisions allows us to identify the following elements of the content of efficiency assessments:

1) criteria (as measures of goals) of economic evaluation of efficiency;
2) effects as descriptions of the consequences obtained as a result of the implementation of management decisions.

Methods for assessing effectiveness.

Depending on the nature, content and measure of expression of changes in the activities of the enterprise, one or another method for assessing the effectiveness of a management decision is selected.

From the point of view of the role of methods in the evaluation process, they are divided into:

Methods for taking into account the relationship of social and political factors with the assessment of economic efficiency;
methods for selecting criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of management decisions;
methods for selecting the effects of the implementation of management decisions;
methods for determining criteria values;
methods for calculating effects.
By the nature of the work performed, assessment methods can be divided into:
methods of selection and identification in the process of developing performance evaluation;
methods of calculation in the process of performing the assessment;
description methods in the evaluation process.

From the point of view of the role of a person in the evaluation process, methods are divided into formal and informal.

According to the accuracy of the results achieved in the evaluation process, exact and approximate methods are distinguished.

In terms of costs, there are methods that require a significant investment of time of specialists, complex computing equipment and financial resources, and methods that do not require significant costs.
When possible, the methods can be divided into complex and simple.

The diversity of methods requires the inclusion of various specialists in the assessment team and the harmonization of methods used at various stages of the assessment.

The specialists included in the assessment team should be professionals in their field, have the appropriate education and work experience in this area. With constant work as part of a group, specialists not only hone their existing knowledge and skills, replenish their practical experience, but also master new methods for evaluating efficiency. According to the functional nature of the stages of the performance evaluation process and the content of the methods used at these stages, it can be concluded that the group of evaluation specialists should be comprehensive. This corresponds to the complex nature of the object of assessment.

It seems appropriate to make the following composition of the assessment team: economists familiar with economic and mathematical methods, lawyers, psychologists, sociologists, specialists in general and production management, specialists in the methodology of system analysis and mathematics, programmers.

Obviously, not every enterprise or association can provide such a composition. In this case, it is advisable to entrust the assessment of management effectiveness on a contractual basis to specialized research institutes, design institutes or consulting firms specializing in this business area.

Determining the procedure and organization for assessing the economic efficiency of management decisions requires answering the following questions:

Where is the assessment made?
when the assessment is made, what is its process;
what technical and software tools are used to evaluate the effectiveness.

Accounting for management decisions

AT modern conditions management in the information field of the organization there are three accounting systems, the purpose of which is to meet the information needs of users of accounting information.

At the output of the information system of the organization, reports are generated:

1) for external users of accounting information;
2) for the purposes of periodic planning and control;
3) to make decisions in non-standard situations and selection of the optimal policy of the organization.

Financial accounting performs the functions of system accounting, built in accordance with the principles and norms of international standards. task financial accounting is a compilation that can be used by both external and internal users. At the same time, external users of accounting information can be shareholders and creditors (both real and potential), suppliers, buyers, representatives of tax services, etc.

Management accounting is a logical continuation of the development of accounting, its evolution. The complication of economic relations and mechanisms of market relations, the emergence of new market instruments, methods and means of managing economic and financial activities have caused the need for additional information that ensures the successful functioning of the organization in these conditions. Significant changes have taken place in engineering, technology and the organization of production. There are more varieties of the product, methods of its manufacture, options for their combination. The costs (and in many respects the results of activity) now depend not so much on the individual efforts and skills of a person, but on the technical level of production, the productivity of the machines and equipment used. The number of options for solving emerging problems has grown, and the price of an incorrect managerial decision has increased. Obviously, for internal (intra-factory, intra-factory, etc.) management, new system collecting information for analysis, selection and justification of such decisions. There was a need to reorient the main purpose of accounting to meet internal needs. Accounting is divided into financial, tax and management. The expansion of the range of activities necessitated additional information.

Quality of management decisions

The quality of a management decision is a set of decision parameters that satisfy a particular consumer or consumers and ensure the possibility of its implementation. Needed to make a decision. The input of the system is characterized by the parameters of the problem to be solved by specific markets(consumer requirements, segmentation results, object quality, delivery times, prices, etc.).

At the output of the system - a decision expressed quantitatively or qualitatively, having a certain degree of adequacy and the likelihood of implementation, the degree of risk of achieving the planned result. To Components" external environment"systems include factors of the macro- and microenvironment of the company, the region, affecting the quality of the management decision.

These factors include the international, political situation in the country, the economy, technical condition, socio-demographic, natural-climatic, cultural and other factors, infrastructure factors of the region (market infrastructure, monitoring environment, social infrastructure, industry, transport, communications, etc.), factors characterizing the specific ties of a firm (decision maker) with other firms, organizations, intermediaries, competitors, etc.

Feedback characterizes various information coming from consumers to the person who made the decision (to the "process"), or to the person from whom the information on solving the problem was received (to the input). The receipt of feedback information can also be caused by a poor-quality solution, additional requirements consumers about the refinement or refinement of the solution, the emergence of innovations, know-how and other factors.

The process of making a managerial decision includes the following operations: preparation for work; identification of the problem and formulation of goals; search for information; its processing; identification of resource provision opportunities; target ranking; formulation of tasks; decor required documents; implementation of tasks. The application of a systematic approach to the process of making a managerial decision makes it possible to determine the structure of the problem, the system for solving it, the interconnections of the components of the system and the sequence of their improvement.

It is necessary to clearly formulate what should be obtained, what parameters the solution should have. The parameters of the quality of management decisions include:

A measure of entropy, that is, the quantitative uncertainty of a problem. If the problem is formulated only qualitatively, without quantitative indicators, then the entropy indicator approaches zero. If all indicators of the problem are quantified, the entropy indicator approaches unity.
degree of investment risk;
the probability of implementing the solution in terms of quality, costs and timing;
the degree of adequacy (or the degree of accuracy of the forecast, the coefficient of approximation) of the theoretical model to the actual data on the basis of which it was developed.

Risk of management decisions

(RP) is a set of knowledge and skills that, subject to the fulfillment of the project budget and schedule, plan and implement actions to respond to negative or positive events that, with some degree of probability, may occur during the course of the project.

Based on the definition of the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK PMI), management consists of four main components: risk identification, risk assessment, risk response development, and risk control. Risk identification is a process that is carried out first of all and then accompanies project management until its very end. For its implementation PMBOK and others teaching aids project management recommend using a variety of group work methods (brainstorming, nominal group, delphi), as well as the analysis of similar projects from similar areas with the participation of external or internal experts of the company. However, the logic of integral project management teaches us that mechanisms that are relevant to other areas of PM should be used to identify risks. This mechanism is the project work breakdown structure (WBS), or WBS. Formally, it refers to the management of the content and boundaries of the project, but in fact it is actively used in almost all other areas of knowledge of PM and has become a kind of " calling card» UE methodology. Indeed, in what even more logical way can one determine with maximum accuracy all the possible activities of the project associated with the manifestation of certain risk events? As you know, at the end of the project planning stage, all project activities defined with the help of WBS should describe the content and boundaries of the project by 95%. This gives us a chance to identify all potential “risk points” with a high degree of probability. However, the WBS is not just a chart drawn on paper. This is a virtual display of a series of meetings involving stakeholders of the project, having some kind of expert knowledge about the content and boundaries of the project. Thus, in the process of discussing and developing the WBS, we can successfully obtain a large amount of expertly confirmed information regarding the risks of the project. Finally, the logically coherent structure of the WBS itself allows us to organize and gradually consider all constituent parts the project for its potential risks.

Requirements for management decisions

What are the requirements by which you can ensure a high quality solution? The following features can be named: proactive development of a solution, targeted programming, complexity of content, validity of the planned measures, legality, logic, clarity of presentation, flexibility of requirements for performers, timeliness of putting the solution into action, efficiency of achieving the result. All of them are closely interconnected, and therefore the violation of any of them leads to a sharp decrease in the quality of the solution, serious difficulties in achieving the goal.

Proactive solution development. The expression “leading means foreseeing” means the ability to start developing decisions in advance, when there is time for deep reflection and preparation of sufficient funds for implementation. Any successful decision quickly made is always the result of preliminary deliberation, thorough preparation.

Unfortunately, foresight and prudence do not always manifest themselves in us. Most often, decisions are delayed, they are made in the conditions of events that have already begun, leaving no time for reflection and preparation for implementation. Therefore, a vital and priority management principle should be the rule to act proactively based on forecasting the development of the situation and continuous planning of the actions taken, preventing the aggravation of existing problems.

Delay in the development of a solution leads to the fact that a reasonable program of action is not available at the right time, so you have to do not the best way.

It is important to start working on big solutions early. This requires mandatory foresight, anticipation of events, so that the development of the situation does not get out of control, does not take you by surprise. The work should be organized in such a way that the thinking and preparation of the decision proceed in advance, the decision is made on the eve of the events, and the implementation begins immediately with the onset of the events.

Target programming solutions. The high quality of a decision is determined by the clarity of its content, when the goal is precisely defined, the available funds are planned for effective use, and a sequence of actions taken to achieve it is drawn up. In management, the most complete expression of the decision is the target program, which well orients the performers in the upcoming activities.

One of the fundamental vices of the management of the Soviet era was a formally ostentatious attitude to the preparation of important decisions. The option of achieving the goal was usually not thought through to the end, to a clear definition of the sequence and interconnection of the actions taken, the final results and their possible consequences. Insufficient attention was paid to taking into account the effects of unfavorable conditions, providing additional costs and planning the necessary measures to overcome them.

The programming of managerial decisions overcomes this dispersal of the forces and actions of the performers, focuses on the mechanism for achieving a common end result, the program goal - to ensure a high population.

The complexity of the content of the solution. A characteristic feature of many decisions made in management practice is the fragmentation of the planned activities and the lack of connection between the actions taken. When working on large-scale solutions, a systematic approach is required, considering the solution as a system, i.e. a set of interrelated elements that form a single whole.

In any system, there are close ties between its constituent elements, which give rise to additional system-wide properties. The systemic content of the solution generates such properties that significantly increase its reliability, as well as the timeliness and efficiency of the implementation of the planned.

Thus, in order to achieve the goal of ensuring a high quality of life for the population, there are five sub-goals (subprograms) that determine the strategic directions for the activities of state and municipal bodies:

Economic direction: production, logistical, financial and other measures, and most importantly - ensuring the solvency of the population as an internal investor;
social direction: environmental and industrial activities, as well as decent wages, provision of social guarantees, etc.;
political and managerial direction: political and organizational measures, rationalization of managerial processes, training and recruitment of professionally trained managers, etc.;
legal direction: providing legal guarantees to citizens;
intellectual direction: the development of science, information and explanatory, educational, scientific and methodological activities, etc.

Moreover, each subprogram contains a set of tasks and a system of practical measures to achieve the overall goal. In turn, the activities in the program are divided into sequential, interconnected and diverse operations and actions, expressed in specific tasks for specific performers (having various professions and specialties) with duties, rights, powers and resources assigned to them (organizational, personnel, material, technical and financial).

Thus, the complex content of the solution is not just a set of multidirectional events, but their integral unity and interaction with the selection of leaders and the ranking of others. In production, for example, a comprehensive solution covers the work of not only the main workshops, but also supporting departments. Thus, in order to reliably solve the problem public transport care should be taken not only to increase the rolling stock, but also about the state of the repair base and traffic routes, about the social problems of the enterprise related to the daily concerns of employees, about the training of highly qualified personnel, etc.

Management decisions, due to their high complexity and responsibility, versatility of content and high cost of implementation, require preliminary verification of strength using justification procedures.

Reasonableness of decisions. Justification of the decision involves the definition and indication that it is based on true knowledge of urgent (rather than far-fetched) needs, relies on necessary and sufficient funds, takes into account the prevailing conditions of the situation and the possible dynamics of their changes, provides for the use of the best course of action, has the necessary reserves. It ensures the usefulness, feasibility and efficiency of obtaining the desired result. Thus, the justification of the decision guarantees its real necessity and feasibility, prevents its cancellation, non-fulfillment or incomplete implementation.

The deep justification of decisions also implies the provision of the necessary risk, when the result is not guaranteed. True, any risk must be well calculated, secured in advance with the necessary reserves. The risk analysis methodology makes it possible, when making decisions, to consider options for decisions, taking into account their benefits, efficiency, implementation costs, and degree of risk.

Consistency of the content of decisions. The consistency of the content of the decision implies its internal and external interconnection, consistency with previously made decisions along the vertical and horizontal management.

Internal interconnection means that all decision points correlate with each other, follow from each other, do not contradict each other. This also ensures compliance with the proportions of the content of the solution, when all its components correspond to each other in terms of their weight and target orientation. The means provided for in the solution must fully correspond to the price of the problem to be solved and the conditions of the existing situation, and the methods and sequence of actions used must be proportionate to the satisfaction of this need.

External interconnection means that the decision corresponds to the previous ones and does not contradict them. If there is such a contradiction, it must necessarily be specified with an indication of those earlier decisions that must be canceled.

Unfortunately, there are many contradictions even federal laws when many of them do not match. Moreover, in one law there are mutually exclusive theses. The consequences of such a marriage result in confusion and arbitrariness in the interpretation of laws.

Clarity of expression in decisions. Closely adjacent to the logic of the decision is the clarity of its presentation, which makes it possible to avoid discrepancies and different interpretations of the same paragraphs.

Vague formulations and reticences testify either to the thoughtlessness of the decision, or to the incompetence of the person who made it. It must not be allowed that, according to the existing regulations the same actions of a person could be interpreted in completely different ways.

It is especially important to use precise and unambiguous concepts, give clear definitions of complex concepts and establish semantic relationships between words, avoid homonyms if possible or stipulate their understanding, since they have the same spelling, but differ greatly in meaning, which can mislead performers.

Flexibility of requirements for performers. The solution presupposes the elasticity of the content, the optimal combination of rigidity and flexibility for achieving the goal, providing the performers, within certain limits, with the necessary scope for initiative and independence in the face of current changes in the situation, the possibility of adjusting some points of the decision while strictly observing the timeliness and accuracy of its implementation. The mere rigidity of the decision means the requirement for the performers to act only in one way and in no other way, which completely ties their hands, does not provide an opportunity for the manifestation of creative initiative and resourcefulness. Only the goal contained in it should be rigid in the decision (if changes are made to the goal, then the decision itself changes), while the process of achieving the goal should be flexible enough, take into account changes in the situation, specific possibilities for using funds and the potential of executors.

Timely implementation of decisions. The timeliness of the implementation of the decision means the exact choice of the moment of its adoption and the start of implementation - without delay and running ahead.

Running ahead makes the implementation of the decision premature and therefore unfeasible, when the need for its implementation has not yet arisen and the appropriate conditions have not yet matured. The delay in the start of the implementation of the decision makes it erroneous, and therefore unnecessary, out of date and even harmful.

The most complete compliance with the requirements for management decisions leads them to high level socio-economic efficiency.

Decision efficiency. The effectiveness of the decision means the choice of such a course of action that leads to a reliable, timely and complete achievement of the intended result at a lower cost or to obtaining the maximum result at a given cost. It takes into account the ratio of the intended useful result and the planned costs, the completeness of the return on the resources used, the high degree of use of the possibilities of funds to obtain the intended result with a minimum negative consequences that reduce its value.

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SPECIALTY: Management of the organization DISCIPLINE: Management decisions COURSE WORK On the topic: "PECULIARITIES OF THE ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS"

Introduction……………………………………………………………………….3 p.

1. Analysis of theoretical aspects and problems of implementation of managerial decisions

1.1 The decision-making process and its structure ………………………….5 p.

1.2 Basic procedures for the management decision-making process.6 p.

2. Analysis of the LLC "Status" enterprise on the problem and implementation of management decisions

2.1 Characteristics of the enterprise………………………………………..13 p.

2.2 Decision-making analysis…………………………………………...17 p.

2.3 Analysis of the implementation of decisions……………………………………………21 p.

3.1 Factors of the effectiveness of management decisions………………..25 p.

3.2 Methods for modeling and optimizing solutions…………………..25 p.

Conclusion………………………………………………………………….29 p.

References………………………………………………………..31 p.

INTRODUCTION

Among the many problems of modern management, the most important are the development, adoption and implementation of a management decision, which is the main tool for managing influence. This problem is not purely academic. It has a very serious applied value, which inevitably increases as the complexity of economic situations and management tasks that need to be addressed. This is also evidenced by the increasing scale of losses as a result of even small errors made in the decision.

Effective decision making is essential for the implementation managerial functions. Therefore, the decision-making process is the central point of management theory. Management science seeks to improve the performance of organizations by increasing management's ability to make informed, objective decisions in situations of extreme complexity through the use of models and quantitative methods.

Management decisions can be made in relation to any area of ​​the organization: personnel management, financial management, production process management, including marketing service management.

The relevance of the work is explained by the fact that the existence of any organization is impossible without the constant daily adoption and implementation of certain decisions at various levels of management. At the same time, managerial decisions are aimed at achieving the most optimal result of the organizational and production system. The job of executives, scientists, engineers, lawyers is to make decisions and solve problems. There is nothing more important to the welfare of society than the efficient performance of this work.

Decision making is an important and complex process. However, many leaders believe that decision making is nothing more than choosing one of several possible courses of action. Alas, decisions of this kind are just one step in a complex and dynamic process.

The purpose of the course work is to study functional organization management decision-making process, as well as consideration of the order and methods of decision-making.

1. Analysis of theoretical aspects, problems and implementation of management decisions

Under decision technology it is necessary to understand the composition and sequence of procedures leading to the solution of the problems of the organization, in combination with the methods for developing and optimizing alternatives.

For a leader, decision making is not an end in itself. The main concern of a manager is not the choice of an alternative itself, but the resolution of a certain managerial problem. To solve a problem, very often, not a single solution is required, but a certain sequence of solutions and, most importantly, their implementation. Therefore, a decision is not a one-time act, but the result of a process that develops over time and has a certain structure. Based on this, we can give the following definition of this process.

Decision making process - this is cyclic sequence of actions of the subject of management aimed at resolving the problems of the organization and consisting in the analysis of the situation, generation of alternatives, decision-making and organization of its implementation.

The most holistic and visual representation of the decision-making process is given by a diagram that reflects its main stages and the order in which they follow (Fig. 1.1).

Rice. 1.1- Composition and sequence of procedures for the management decision-making process

However, it should be noted that this scheme is an idealized model, since real decision-making processes, due to the variety of organizations, situations and problems that need to be addressed, as a rule, differ from it, i.e. in fact, the structure of the PTSD is largely determined by the situation and the problem being solved

Analysis of the situation. For the need to make a management decision, a signal is needed about an external or internal influence that has caused or is capable of causing a deviation from the specified mode of the system's functioning, i.e. presence of a managerial situation. Therefore, one of the most important conditions for making the right decision is to analyze the situation.

Analysis of the management situation requires the collection and processing of information. This stage performs the function of the organization's perception of the external and internal environment. Data on the state of the main environmental factors and the state of affairs in the organization are received by managers and specialists who classify, analyze information and compare the actual values ​​of controlled parameters with planned or predicted ones, which in turn allows them to identify problems that should be solved.

Problem identification. The first step towards solving a problem is its definition or diagnosis, complete and correct. As they say, to formulate a problem correctly is to half solve it.

There are two views on the essence of the problem. According to one, a situation is considered a problem when the set goals are not achieved or there is a deviation from the set level, for example, the master can determine that the productivity or quality of products in his area is below the norm. On the other hand, the potential for efficiency gains should also be considered as a problem. Combining both of these approaches, we will understand the discrepancy between the desired and real state of the managed object as a problem.

Identifying and formulating a problem is a very complex procedure. The fact is that at the time of their emergence, many of the most important problems are poorly structured, i.e. do not contain obvious goals, alternative ways to achieve them, an idea of ​​the costs and effects associated with each of the options, and bringing these problems to quantitative certainty (structuring) requires managers not only knowledge and experience, but also talent, intuition, and creativity.

In medical terminology, the first step in diagnosing a complex problem is identifying the symptoms. The general symptoms of the illness of the organization are: low - profit, sales volume, labor productivity, quality of goods and services; high - costs, staff turnover, numerous conflicts. Identifying symptoms helps to define the problem in a general way, but just as different diseases often have common symptoms (headache can be caused by both ordinary overwork and hypertension), different causes can cause similar organizational problems (poor product quality can be the result of both worn-out equipment and insufficient qualification of workers). Therefore, managers should investigate the causes of the problem more deeply and not rush to eliminate only its symptoms.

We must also not forget that all elements and activities in the organization are interconnected and the solution of any problem in one part of the organization can cause problems in others. Therefore, when defining the problem to be solved, one should strive to ensure that the number of newly emerging problems is minimal.

Definition of selection criteria. Before considering possible solutions to the problem that has arisen, the manager needs to determine the indicators by which alternatives will be compared and the best choice will be made. These indicators are called selection criteria. For example, when deciding to purchase new equipment, one can focus on the criteria of price, performance, operating costs, ergonomics, etc., and if a decision is made to hire a new employee, the selection criteria among candidates can be: education, work experience , age, personal qualities.

Development of alternatives. The next step is to develop a set of alternative solutions to the problem. Ideally, it is desirable to identify all possible alternative ways to solve the problem, only in this case the solution can be optimal. However, in practice, the manager does not (and cannot) have such stocks of knowledge and time to formulate and evaluate every possible alternative. Managers are well aware that the search for the optimal solution is very difficult, takes a lot of time and is expensive, so they are looking not for the optimal, but for a good enough, acceptable option that allows you to solve the problem and helps to cut off unsuitable alternatives in advance, the selection criteria defined at the previous stage.

Along with the situation when options for solving a problem are known in advance or are discovered without much difficulty, there are often situations in which the problem being solved has not been encountered before, i.e. possible alternatives are unknown and must be preliminarily formulated. In such cases, it can be very useful to collectively discuss the problem and generate alternatives.

Choice of an alternative. Having developed possible solutions to the problem, they need to be evaluated, i.e. compare the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative and objectively analyze the likely results of their implementation. To compare solutions, it is necessary to have standards or criteria by which they can be compared. Such selection criteria were established in the third stage. With their help, the choice of the best alternative is made.

Since the choice is made, as a rule, on the basis of several criteria, and not one, it always has the character of a compromise. In addition, when evaluating possible solutions, the manager actually deals with predictive estimates of the compared values, and they are always probabilistic. Therefore, it is very important to take into account the risk factor, i.e. determine the likelihood of each alternative being implemented. Taking into account the risk factor leads to a revision of the very concept of the best solution: it is not the option that maximizes or minimizes a certain indicator, but the one that ensures its achievement with the highest degree of probability.

Decision approval. In modern management systems, as a result of the division of labor, a situation has developed in which some employees of the organization prepare and develop a decision, others accept or approve, and third ones carry out. In other words, the manager often approves and bears responsibility for a solution that he did not develop, the specialists who prepared and analyzed the solution do not participate in its implementation, and the performers do not take part in the preparation and discussion of the decisions being prepared. Management decision-making in an organization is often mistakenly viewed as an individual rather than a group process. Meanwhile, although the main stages of the PPR organizations and individuals are the same, the formation of decisions in the organization differs significantly from individual decision-making. It is the organization, and not the individual leader, who must respond to emerging problems. And not one leader, but all members of the organization should strive to improve the efficiency of its work. Of course, managers choose the course for the organization, but for the decision to be implemented, the joint actions of all members of the organization are necessary. Therefore, the stage of coordination plays a very significant role in group decision-making processes.

In the ideal case, the performers will act in accordance with the decisions of the managers, but the practice is far from ideal and this is not always the case. Recognition of a solution is rarely automatic, even if it is clearly a good one. Therefore, the leader must convince the correctness of his point of view, prove to employees that his decision brings benefits to both the organization and its individual members. Practice shows that the probability of quick and effective implementation increases significantly when the performers have the opportunity to express their opinion on the decision being made, make suggestions, comments, etc. Then the decision taken is perceived as one's own, and not imposed "from above". Therefore, the best way to agree on a decision is to involve employees in the process of making it. Of course, this method should not be absolutized: there are situations when it is impossible or not rational and the manager is forced to make a decision on his own, without resorting to discussions and approvals, but we must remember that the systematic ignoring of the opinions of subordinates leads to an authoritarian leadership style.

Implementation management. The process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative: to obtain real effect the decision made must be implemented. That is the main task of this stage.

For the successful implementation of the solution, first of all, it is necessary to determine the complex of works and resources and distribute them according to the performers and deadlines, i.e. foresee who, where, when and what actions should be taken and what resources are needed for this. If we are talking about sufficiently large solutions, this may require the development of a program to implement the solution. During the implementation of this plan, the leader must monitor how the decision is being implemented, provide assistance if necessary, and make certain adjustments.

Monitoring and evaluation of results. Even after the decision is finally put into action, the decision-making process cannot be considered completely completed, since it is still necessary to verify whether it justifies itself. This goal is served by the control stage, which performs in this process feedback function. At this stage, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated, or the actual results are compared with those that the manager hoped to receive.

It should not be forgotten that the solution is always temporary. The term of its effective action can be considered equal to the period of relative constancy of the problem situation. Beyond its limits, the solution may cease to have an effect and even turn into its opposite - not contribute to solving the problem, but exacerbate it. In this regard, the main task of control is to timely identify the decreasing effectiveness of the solution and the need to correct it or make a new decision. In addition, the implementation of this stage is a source of accumulation and systematization of experience in decision-making.

The problem of controlling managerial decisions is very relevant, especially for large bureaucratic organizations. You can make a lot of reasonable and useful decisions, but without a rationally organized system for monitoring the execution, they will remain in the "bowels of office work" and will not give the expected effect.

Conclusion:

The immediate results of management decisions are the changes that occur in the process joint activities people, in a complex of economic and social indicators of production and economic activities of enterprises. This necessitates the consideration of the main provisions of the theory of decision making and their application in practical activities leaders.

In its most general form, decision theory is a branch of management science, including the study of the problems of setting goals and objectives, determining the criteria and indicators for information support of decision options and their optimization.

In addition to being of high quality, control decision should be stable in terms of efficiency to possible errors in determining the initial data and flexible - provide for changing goals and algorithms for achieving goals. Otherwise, minor deviations of the initial data, which may occur at any time and for various reasons, will transfer the management decision from the category of effective to ineffective.

2. Analysis of the LLC "Status" enterprise on the problem and implementation of management decisions

2.1 Characteristics of the enterprise

The enterprise considered in the work Status LLC is engaged in the production and sale of building materials. The company was founded on the basis of a former supply base six years ago. This explains the fact that the company has a staff of production specialists, and the sale of products is at a low level.

You can imagine the enterprise under consideration as a system. Next, we give a table of functions and elements of the organization.

To diagnose problems and further forecasting, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the object of forecasting.

The purpose of the analysis is to obtain the information necessary to diagnose the problem and predict the development of the control object in the interests of making a decision by the manager.

The analysis involves the study of:

macro environments;

Competitive environment;

internal environment.

Like any system, the organization under consideration operates in the aggregate and in interaction with the external environment. This interaction is manifested in the following:

In the procurement of raw materials and materials from third-party suppliers;

In the selection and change of personnel;

In the influence of tastes and preferences of consumers on the range of products;

In the actions of competitors;

In the regulation of the organization's activities by state and other authorities, etc.

An analysis of the macro environment showed that the enterprise is influenced by the legal authorities in the field of compulsory licensing of activities and certification of products. This influence is felt in daily activities, but does not carry negative impact and reduced performance. The costs incurred by the enterprise in the course of the implementation of the listed activities are attributed to the decrease in profits.

The political processes taking place in the country also have an indirect impact to the extent that the purchasing power of the population decreases in relation to all goods and services, and in particular to building materials.

The development of scientific and technological progress and the achievements of modern technologies have a greater influence compared to the previous parameters. This is reflected in the development modern materials and technologies for their production, as well as in the improvement of traditional construction methods. This process reduces the competitiveness of traditional building materials and technologies and forces them out of the market.

The analysis of objects and subjects of management is carried out in a systemic unity with the analysis of the external environment.

The study competitive environment made it possible to reveal the fact that direct competitors, i.e. manufacturers of similar products do not have a strong impact on consumers, market segments are divided approximately proportionally. There is its own circle of regular consumers in the form of large industrial enterprises and construction organizations. Manufacturers of a morally different range of building materials have taken away some of the consumers and have little impact on the emerging market conditions.

A problem has been detected in the enterprise. A problem is a critical discrepancy between the desired and actual state. In this case, this is well-established production and poorly organized sales, while with good production, sales should not lag behind in order to be able to invest free financial resources in an even greater expansion of production or its improvement.

Awareness of the problem consists in establishing the fact of its existence based on the results of monitoring activities or researching market opportunities. The problem, which has reached a certain severity, is transformed into a motive for the activities of the organization and its managers.

The process of building a problem tree allows you to structure the problem. The problem tree is shown in fig. 2.1.

Based on the results of the work to identify the problem, a goal was set for the personnel of the enterprise - to increase sales finished products within 6 months and increasing consumer preference in the direction of our products.

The set goal meets all the necessary requirements for goals: it is clear and understandable to the performers, it is measurable by quantitative methods, it has a deadline for implementation, it is consistent with the global goal of the entire organization.

2.2 Decision Analysis

Further, according to the materials presented on the work done to identify problems, the management of the enterprise identified the most important for strategic development enterprise problem. It is connected with the restructuring of the principles of work of the marketing division of the company. Within the framework of solving this problem, several directions of its solution can be distinguished. On the one hand, this is a change in the methodological approach to the organization of the marketing service in the enterprise. And on the other hand, this is a change in the influence of the human factor on solving the problem.

Several solutions to this problem can be proposed. We present them in the form of a decision tree (Fig. 2.2)

Rice. 2.2- decision tree .

The algorithm for choosing a method for solving a particular problem is shown in Figure 2.3.

According to the above algorithm for selecting and making a managerial decision on the problem of increasing the efficiency of the company "Status", the following solutions were selected and evaluated as the most appropriate for the goals and objectives set:

1. Form a new structure of the marketing department of the company.

2. Adopt as the main program in the system of motivation of personnel activity the program of material interest of personnel in increasing sales volumes and bonuses based on the results of the company's activities for each quarter.

3. Build a sales system through the involvement of dealers and distributors on a contractual basis.

4. Set the pricing policy according to the "cost plus" system.

5. Conduct a study of the building materials market and consumer preferences, and then develop a range of products and a production program in accordance with the results of the research.

The criterion for the effectiveness of a managerial decision is expressed, as a rule, in the form of a set of indicators and acts as a measure of the knowledge of the phenomenon under study.

When choosing a criterion for the effectiveness of a solution, one should be guided by the following basic requirements:

firstly, it must be expressed quantitatively, i.e. have a physical meaning;

secondly, it should most fully reflect the results of the decision;

thirdly, be quite simple, understandable and specific.

As a rule, the process of choosing an efficiency criterion is based on logical reasoning and intuition of the decision maker.

The criterion for evaluating the effectiveness of solving the problem posed will be the creation of such a marketing service at the enterprise, in which all manufactured products will be sold during the period of production of the next batch of products with maximum profit.

For the final decision-making for each option under study, it is necessary to compare both the effect obtained as a result of the decision and the possible costs (cash, labor, material and other resources) for its implementation. The quantitative assessment of the effect obtained as a result of the adoption of a particular decision is expressed not only in monetary terms, but also depends on changes in the composition of capital investments, social working conditions, psychological climate, etc. Comparison of options provides for the exclusion of unsuitable ones and the choice of the most acceptable ones. The analysis is carried out using the methods of economic and system analysis.

2.3 Analysis of the implementation of the solution

In the most general form, the choice of the final solution is determined by the nature of the task, the available resources, and the information security of the management process.

Of the proposed solutions to the problem, two did not immediately satisfy the company:

firstly, it is not possible to change the pricing policy, because this market independently regulates the price level based on supply and demand;

secondly, changing the structure of the marketing service is not considered appropriate, because the company has qualified specialists, and the search for new personnel will take time and lead to additional costs of funds.

Only options for changing the sales strategy based on a study of customer demand remained realistically possible.

To make a decision that requires the identification and consideration of a significant number of factors, it is advisable to involve those employees who are more or less familiar with the problem posed and will be able to give certain recommendations when considering it. It is noted that group decisions are effective provided that the group is small in composition and the number of its members has the possibility of direct communication to discuss decisions. At the same time, the value of a decision made by a group is higher and its competence is greater than that of a decision made alone.

So, a decision was made to change the sales strategy while simultaneously studying consumers and their demand for products.

For this, the following tree of goals was compiled (Fig. 2.4)

In accordance with the above decision tree, it is necessary to establish all the moments of risk in order to exclude them in advance from the practical activities of the company. For the considered production enterprise "Status", the following risk situations can be distinguished:

The developed range of products is not in demand on the market and there was a need for an urgent sale of product balances in order to prevent the production process from stopping;

A technological failure occurred, which resulted in non-fulfillment of contractual obligations and additional costs for the restoration of the production process and for penalties;

There was a break in contractual relations with one of the dealers, who bore the main burden of selling products, which may cause stagnation of finished products in the warehouse;

To localize the above risk situations, one can cite a variant of possible activities with several dealers at once and the simultaneous maintenance of one's own distribution network. This means that it is necessary to enter into agency agreements with several firms simultaneously in order to prevent a failure in activities due to failures in the work of one large agent. At the same time, the issue of coordinating delivery and shipment schedules is acute in order to avoid non-cyclicality in the implementation process. That is, the schedule should be drawn up in such a way that in each period of time the products must be received by any dealer, and if there is a need to accumulate a large volume of products for one consumer, then products are not shipped to other consumers at this time.

On the other hand, it is necessary to produce several types of products, and not rely on any one product, so that there is interchangeability.

Conclusions:

Firm "Status" identified a problem in its activities - unsatisfactory construction of a system for marketing products with successful production. This work, based on theoretical material, considers options for solving the identified problem.

As a result of the development of a management solution for the Status company, a range of measures was developed to improve the sales system for products and the work of the marketing service, including activities for market research and the development of an appropriate product range, changes in the sales system through the creation of a dealer network.

In the process of developing a management decision, two more possible options were rejected - a change in pricing policy and a change in the personnel of the enterprise.

In conclusion, I would like to note the importance of making correct and timely management decisions.

Before making decisions, people mentally play out various options, considering it the best way find the optimal one. Therefore, it will be useful to give here a few practical advice, developed by E. Starobinsky in his book "How to manage personnel".

1) do not fuss. Each decision needs to be considered, and this takes time.

Determine for yourself the time required for the solution. Analyze the option that comes to mind. Note its pros and cons. This sequence develops in us the ability to make decisions.

2) choose a behavior strategy. This is very important when solving fundamental issues. Fundamental decisions should not distort the strategy of behavior and contradict life attitudes. Otherwise, you should think about reconsidering your views.

3) seriously analyze the current situation. In this case, the validity of the proposed decision will be revealed. For decision-making, this step becomes fundamental.

4) when making a decision, common sense is important, this is especially important when there are many alternatives to the decision. Rely on logic, this will help you make the best decision.

5) Be creative. Being creative will help you make an unconventional decision. Showing initiative and creativity will help you get the results you want.

3.1 Factors of effective management decisions

The effectiveness of managerial decisions is determined by many quantitative and qualitative factors of a technical, technological, socio-economic and organizational nature.

The technical and technological factors for increasing the efficiency of management decisions include: the machine-labor ratio, the degree of use of office equipment, the technical culture of specialists and technical performers, and others.

Socio-economic factors include: the authority of the leader, interpersonal relationships, psychological characteristics, conflict situations, a system of moral and material incentives, sanitary and hygienic working conditions, fatigue, physical activity, the general health of workers, and others.

To organizational factors: the degree of rationality of the structure of the management apparatus, the state of division and cooperation of labor, the selection and placement of personnel, the organization of performance, the organization of jobs, the rationality of the use of working time.

When solving the problem of determining the effectiveness of decision-making, very important conditions are taking into account the action and interaction of various groups of factors, determining the quantitative impact both on the efficiency of production management activities and on the final results of production efficiency.

3.2 Methods for modeling and optimizing solutions

In the process of solving complex problems in order to strengthen the ability of managers to make informed and objective decisions, various scientific methods for their development and optimization can be used, the arsenal of which is usually divided into two main classes:

Modeling methods;

Methods of expert assessments.

Modeling methods (also called operations research methods) are based on the use of mathematical models to solve the most common management problems.

The development and optimization of a solution to a specific problem by modeling methods is a rather complicated procedure, which can be represented by a sequence of main stages:

Formulation of the problem;

Determination of the efficiency criterion of the analyzed operation;

Quantitative measurement of factors influencing the operation under study;

Construction of a mathematical model of the studied object (operation);

Quantitative solution of the model and finding the optimal solution;

Checking the adequacy of the model and the solution found for the analyzed situation;

Correction and updating of the model. The number of possible concrete models is almost as great as the number of problems for which they are designed. Their detailed consideration is beyond the scope of this textbook and is the subject of a special academic discipline, therefore, we will name only the most common types of models.

Game theory models. Majority business transactions can be considered as actions performed in the face of opposition. Counteractions should include, for example, factors such as an accident, fire, theft, strike, breach of contractual obligations, etc. However, the most massive case of opposition is competition. Therefore, one of the most important conditions on which the success of an organization depends is competitiveness. Obviously, the ability to predict the actions of competitors is a significant advantage for any commercial organization. When making a decision, you should choose an alternative that allows you to reduce the degree of opposition, which in turn will reduce the degree of risk.

Game theory provides the manager with such an opportunity. mathematical models which is encouraged to analyze possible alternatives to its actions, taking into account the possible response actions of competitors. Originally developed for military-strategic purposes, game theory models are also used in business to predict the reaction of competitors to decisions made, for example, to price changes, launching new goods and services, entering new market segments, etc.

So, when deciding to change the price level for "its products, the company's management must predict the reaction and possible response actions of the main competitors. And, if using the game theory model it is established that, for example, when the price increases, competitors will not do the same, the organization , in order not to fall into a disadvantageous position, must abandon this alternative and look for another solution to the problem.

It should be noted, however, that these models are used quite rarely, as they are too simplified compared to real economic situations, so changeable that the resulting forecasts are not very reliable.

Queue theory models. Queuing theory (or optimal service) models are used to find the optimal number of service channels for a certain level of demand for them. Situations where such models can be useful include, for example, quantifying telephone lines necessary to answer calls from customers, trolleybuses on the route, necessary so that they do not accumulate at stops long lines, or tellers in a bank so that customers do not have to wait until they can be taken care of, etc. The problem here is that additional service channels (more telephone lines, trolleybuses or bank employees) require additional resources, and their loading is uneven (excessive throughput in some periods of time and the appearance of queues in others). Therefore, it is necessary to find a solution that balances the additional costs of expanding service channels and the losses from their lack. Models of queuing theory are precisely the tool for finding such an optimal solution.

Conclusions:

In addition to economic importance social aspect decision-making efficiency. It is important to take into account: the prospective significance of decisions, their possible result and consequences, the level of compliance of the decisions made with the tasks of social development. It is necessary to foresee the possible consequences of the impact of decisions not only on the direct executors, but also on the general population, changes in their psychology, in their way of thinking and behavior, style of activity, etc.

The main indicators of the social effectiveness of the decisions made include: improving working conditions, increasing job satisfaction, reducing staff turnover, reducing the cost of hard and unskilled labor, developing creative activity and initiative, improving interpersonal relationships, etc.

Conclusion

At the end of the work, I would like to highlight the main points.

1. The impulse of a managerial decision is the need to eliminate, reduce the relevance or solve a problem, i.e. approximation in the future of the real parameters of the object (phenomenon) to the desired, predictive ones.

2. To solve the problem, it is necessary to answer the following questions: what to do (object)? how to do (technology)? for whom (consumers)? at what price? with what parameters? at what cost? in what quantity? at what time? where? to whom (performers)?

3. The main requirements for the quality of information for making a management decision: timeliness, reliability, reliability, complexity, targeting, legal correctness, multiple use, high speed collection and processing, the possibility of coding, relevance.

4. The main parameters of the quality of management decisions should include: the entropy index, the degree of investment risk, the probability of implementing the decision, the degree of adequacy of the theoretical model to the actual data.

5. The main conditions for ensuring high quality and efficiency of management decisions include: applying scientific approaches to the development of a solution, studying the influence of economic laws on the effectiveness of a solution, providing high-quality information, applying methods of functional cost analysis, forecasting, modeling and economic justification, building a tree of goals , ensuring the comparability of alternative options, multivariate solutions, legal validity, automation, motivation for a high-quality solution, the presence of a mechanism for implementing the solution.

6. Alternative options for management decisions should be brought into a comparable form in terms of time factors, quality of objects, scale of production, level of development, method of obtaining information, conditions for using the object, inflation factors, risk and uncertainty.

7. The principles of economic justification of management decisions include: taking into account the time factor, accounting for costs and results for the life cycle of an object, applying systematic and integrated approaches to the calculation, multivariance, comparability of options, taking into account the uncertainty and risk factor.

Management decision making is a very important factor in the activity of any modern company. Without proper management decisions, effective leadership there can hardly be economic prosperity of the firm.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1 Vakulenko T.G. Analysis and management decision making. M, 2003. - 297 p.

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Introduction …………………………………………………………………………..3

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1.1. Modeling method as the main direction of activating managerial thinking………………………………………………………...4

1.2. The method of expert assessments in management activities as a means of activating managerial thinking………………………………………….6

…………………..8

2.1. The process and specifics of the process of making a managerial decision in an organization…………………………………………………………………………….8

2.2. The activities of the manager in improving the efficiency of decision-making……………………………………………………………………………..10

Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………...11

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Introduction

The relevance of the topic of the work lies in the fact that the importance of the strategic type of management increases along with an increase in the number of hierarchical systems, an increase in the volume and complexity of tasks and problems solved by a hierarch in hierarchical management systems, an increase in the volume and scale of problems in super-hierarchical systems of the integrity of societies and civilizational integrity. .

Thanks to the development of methodology in Russia, it became possible to analyze and design socio-technical, socio-cultural, socio-political systems of any scale at a qualitatively new level. This inevitably affects scientific research, design technological game-modeling and pedagogical developments, the quality of consulting and the prospect of reaching a qualitatively new level of functioning and development of managerial hierarchies, including public administration.

The subject of the research is the process of activation of managerial thinking at the current stage of development of management.

The object of research is management as a process and managerial thinking.

Objective - general characteristics methods of activation of thinking in the development of management decisions.

Based on this goal, the following work tasks can be formulated:

1. To study the methods of modeling and expert assessments as the main directions and means of activating managerial thinking.

2. Analyze the process of making managerial decisions.

The work used materials from periodicals, Internet sources, as well as scientific works following authors: Anisimova O.S., Bolshakova A.S., Kulagovoy I.A., Durdenko V.A. and etc.

1. Making managerial decisions in the context of the activation of managerial thinking

1.1. Modeling method as the main direction of activating managerial thinking

As the main direction of improving the process of making managerial decisions, improving their quality, modeling of managerial decisions should be used.

The class of economic-mathematical (research) models is formed by the so-called informal models, i.e. such models in which, along with documented (objective) information, subjective information obtained through research can be found.

Other variants of models are also used to model managerial decisions. The most significant features of the "Plan" model are that this group of models assumes the existence of an operating system for which a form of setting a goal is being developed, a certain procedure for achieving it, and the resources necessary for this. The innovation plan (project) implements a set of targets for the adopted strategy, provides for adaptation to changes in the external environment, ongoing differentiation in the market space, and forms targets for the functions of the organization. In the operational plan (business plan), within the target settings, a plan is developed for production, economic and financial operations for all departments of the organization.

Thus, strategic and innovative planning (modeling) solves the issues of increasing the efficiency of the organization, focusing on the conditions of the external environment (market space), and operational (business planning) - on the internal environment of the organization.

The group of models "Plan" should include an anti-crisis (external) management plan, which is developed and implemented during the bankruptcy procedure. Considering that bankruptcy is a common phenomenon in a market economy, the Anti-Crisis Management Plan model stands out as an independent one in the classification.

The "Forecast" model (indicative plan) displays the current management system in the future. This kind of model is a research tool. With its help, it becomes possible to expand information about the potential level of the organization in question. This type of model is used at the strategic level of the organization's management. The development of a forecast model is based on the use of the following elements of the definition of the economic system: time, time limit, goal, goal assessment, probability of achieving the goal, goal measure, area of ​​socially useful goals, resources, probability of goal support, sequence of actions, ways to achieve the goal, state of the environment .

The Program model is similar to the plan in many ways. Its difference from the plan is that the program does not involve pre-existing executors, since the latter are determined in the process of implementing the program. In this aspect, the program is close to the forecast. The program is not just a model for setting goals, but also a model for setting goals. organizational structure management, possibly new, which should achieve the goal.

Economic and mathematical models represent the second class simulation models. They can be reduced to a classification, the difference of which is the joint grouping according to the features of economic and economic-mathematical models and the use of classification features to group the models.

Thus, modeling makes it possible to increase the efficiency of managerial decisions and the management process as a whole.

1. The method of expert assessments in management activities as a means of activating managerial thinking

Many factors that determine or influence the choice of a decision are by their nature not amenable to quantitative characterization, others cannot be practically measured. All this made it necessary to develop special methods that facilitate the choice of management decisions in complex technical, organizational, and economic problems (methods of operations research, expert assessments, etc.).

Operations research methods are used to express optimal solutions mainly in the following areas of management: production planning on a large scale; organization production processes in enterprises; logistics; organization of transportation.

Optimization of decisions consists in a comparative study of numerical estimates of factors that cannot be estimated using conventional methods.

Methods of expert assessments are used in cases where the problem is completely or partially not amenable to formalization and cannot be solved by known mathematical methods.

Expertise is a study of complex special issues at the stage of development of a managerial decision by persons with special knowledge and experience in order to obtain conclusions, opinions, recommendations, and assessments. In the course of expert research, the latest achievements of science and technology in the specialty of an expert are used.

The task of an expert is to use special knowledge in a particular area, past experience and intuition to apply general laws and particular patterns to develop specific management decisions and ensure their optimality.

The expert opinion is drawn up in the form of a document in which the course of the study and its results are recorded. The introduction contains data: who, where, when, in connection with what organizes and conducts an examination.

The most effective application of methods of expert assessments in solving the following problems of production management.

1. Analysis complex processes, systems, phenomena, situations, characterized mainly by qualitative, non-formalizable characteristics.
2. forecasting trends in the development of the production system and the interaction of the external environment with it.
3. Identification and ranking according to a given criterion of the most significant factors affecting the functioning and development of the production system.
4. Improving the efficiency of mathematical-statistical and other formal methods due to a more accurate definition and evaluation of some qualitative aspects, factors that are not amenable to formalization.
5. Improving the reliability of the assessment of objective functions of a qualitative or quantitative nature by averaging the opinions of highly qualified specialists.
6. Identification and evaluation of qualitative and quantitative criteria needed to make a management decision.
7. Evaluation of alternative solutions and highlighting some of the most preferred options.

Thus, today the role of management as a special kind of activity, social institution in the life of society is extremely great. Scientists, not without reason, believe that the absence of modern system management based on intellectual strategy, modern information and analytical base, computer technology, automatically casts the country into the category of backward countries, even if all the resources for development are available.

2. Analysis of the process of making managerial decisions

2.1. The process and specifics of the process of making managerial decisions in the organization

There are two points to keep in mind when considering decision-making processes. The first is that decisions are usually relatively easy to make. Everything that a person does in this case comes down to choosing a course of action. It's hard to make a good decision. The second point is that decision making is a psychological process. We all know from experience that human behavior is not always logical. Sometimes we are driven by logic, sometimes by feelings. Therefore, it is not surprising that the methods used by the leader to make decisions vary from spontaneous to highly logical. A rational approach to decision making is described below, but here it is important to remember that the leader is influenced by such psychological factors as social attitudes, accumulated experience and personal values. Next, I will consider the influence of some behavioral factors on the process of making managerial decisions.

A purely intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of a feeling that it is correct. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just that a person makes a choice.

Decisions based on judgments. Such decisions sometimes seem intuitive, because their logic is not obvious. A judgmental decision is a choice based on knowledge or experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the current situation. Based on common sense, he chooses an alternative that has brought success in the past.

Rational problem solving. Problem solving, like management, is a process, because it is a never-ending sequence of interrelated steps. The leader cares not so much about the decision as such, but about everything related to and resulting from it. Solving a problem requires not a single solution, but a set of choices. Therefore, although the problem-solving process can be thought of as a five-stage process (plus implementation and Feedback), the actual number of stages is determined by the problem itself.

1. Diagnosis of the problem.

2. Formulation of constraints and decision criteria.

3. Definition of alternatives.

4. Evaluation of alternatives.

5. Choice of an alternative.

6. Implementation.

7. Feedback .

To compare decisions, it is necessary to have a standard against which to measure the likely outcomes of each possible alternative. If the problem has been correctly identified and alternative solutions carefully weighed and evaluated, make a choice. The process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative. Simply choosing a course of action is of little value to an organization. To solve a problem or to take advantage of an available opportunity, a solution must be implemented. The level of effectiveness in the implementation of a decision will increase if it is recognized by those affected by it. Recognition of a solution is rare, but it is automatic, even if it is obviously good. Another phase that enters the process of making a managerial decision and begins after the decision has taken effect is the establishment of feedback.

Thus, the process of making a managerial decision is quite complicated and consists of several stages.

2.2. The activities of the leader in improving the efficiency of decision-making

For the successful implementation of the solution, first of all, it is necessary to determine the complex of works and resources and distribute them according to the performers and deadlines, i.e. provide for who, where, when and what actions should be taken and what resources are needed for this.

It should not be forgotten that the solution is always temporary. The term of its effective action can be considered equal to the period of relative constancy of the problem situation. Beyond its limits, the solution may cease to have an effect and even turn into its opposite - not contribute to solving the problem, but exacerbate it. In this regard, the main task of control is to timely identify the decreasing effectiveness of the solution and the need to correct it or make a new decision. In addition, the implementation of this stage is a source of accumulation and systematization of experience in decision-making. The problems of controlling managerial decisions are very relevant, especially for large bureaucratic organizations. You can make a lot of reasonable and useful decisions, but without a rationally organized system for monitoring execution, they will remain in the "bowels of office work" and will not give the expected effect. Control is the process of ensuring that an organization achieves its objectives. Control includes setting standards, measuring actual results, and making adjustments if results are significantly different from established standards.

Thus, supporting successful actions is also a function of control, which consists in supporting everything that is successful in the activities of the organization. It is necessary to determine which actions effectively contributed to the achievement of the organization's goals. This allows you to find the area of ​​expansion of the organization.

Conclusion

The paper considers managerial theory based on a holistic concept that combines the methods and ideas of sociology, economics, psychology, cultural studies, philosophy, and management. The main problem of which is the methods of activating thinking in the development of managerial decisions. Human behavior is unpredictable, because it is determined by many factors and circumstances - values, needs, worldview, attitudes, the level of volitional efforts, i.e. that cannot be foreseen and taken into account.

When mastering the means and methods of methodology, there is not just a qualitative shift in the being of abilities, their transformation - the fundamental guidelines and supports change. Identification with a methodological position, its inherent intellectual and motivational grounds, sometimes turns not only into a condition for the successful solution of previous tasks and problems, the implementation of the former type-activity function, but also into an independent significance, more important than the former type-activity being.

As the main direction of development of managerial thinking, improvement of the process of making managerial decisions, improving their quality, modeling of managerial decisions should be used. The plan, depending on the levels of the organization's management system, can be strategic, innovative and operational (business plan). The "Forecast" model (indicative plan) displays the current management system in the future. This kind of model is a research tool. With its help, it becomes possible to expand information about the potential level of the organization in question. This type of model is used at the strategic level of the organization's management. The Program model is similar to the plan in many ways.

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