INTRODUCTION
1 The concept of technological structures
IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL MODES ON THE ECONOMY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
CONCLUSION
LIST OF USED SOURCES
INTRODUCTION
At present, the problem of transferring the economy of our country to an innovative development path is relevant and increasingly attracts the attention of the scientific community. The President of Russia set the task of creating a "smart" economy, which predetermines the need for the development of science and the dynamic implementation of its achievements. Since the set task covers many aspects of our life, a special integrated indicator is required to assess the success of its implementation. Today, the role of such an indicator is increasingly being claimed by such a concept as the “technological mode”, which was introduced into science by Russian economists D.S. Lvov and S.Yu. Glazyev.
Technological order is a set of technologies that are used at a certain level of production development. The change in ways reflects the regularity of the cyclical nature of economic development.
At the present stage of development of human civilization, it is important to make the transition to the sixth technological order. For this stage, deep, comprehensive integration of technologies, as well as the expansion of the technological basis, are natural. However, in Russia this process faces numerous difficulties, among which we can single out the technological diversity of production, the low speed of the innovation cycle, the technical and resource situation, etc.
Thus, the problem of transition to the sixth technological order is relevant for Russia, since with the introduction of advanced technologies and the formation of key areas of the post-industrial technological order, there are prospects for an innovative breakthrough, prospects for the development of an innovative economy.
The object of research is the technological structures in the modern system of economic and technological relations.
The subject of the study is the role of technological structures in the development of an innovative economy modern Russia.
The purpose of this final qualification work is to study the problems of the functioning of the innovative economy in the context of the formation and development of new technological modes.
TECHNOLOGICAL MODES IN THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE
1 The concept of technological structure
In recent years, the world economic thought has developed an understanding of economic dynamics as an uneven and uncertain process of evolutionary development. social production. From this point of view, scientific and technical progress is presented as a complex interaction of various technological alternatives implemented by competing and cooperating economic entities in the conditions of an appropriate institutional environment. The selection of alternatives and their implementation in the form of structural changes in social production is carried out as a result of complex processes education and adaptation of society to new technological opportunities. These processes are mediated by a variety of non-linear positive and negative feedbacks that determine the dynamics of the interaction of technological and social changes.
Such an unconventional understanding of economic dynamics allows a new approach to the study of the laws of technical and economic development (FER) and the problems of managing scientific and technological progress. In theory, the study of the interaction of technological shifts and changes in economic relations, the problems of long-term forecasting of world economic development, and the measurement of the socio-economic efficiency of scientific and technological progress are of the greatest relevance. Among practical problems, the most important are: modern institutional changes in order to adapt society to new technological opportunities and compensate for social resistance to organizational and economic changes in production; development of methods for determining the priorities of fuel and energy resources and identifying the most effective ways their implementation, etc.
A new approach to the study of economic dynamics predetermines a new representation of the economic structure. To study the processes of fuel and energy resources, it is important to develop a point of view on economic reality that would ensure the “transparency” of the economic system in the process of technical changes. "Transparency" is ensured by the stability of the elements of the system and the relationships between them. Adequate to the task of studying the laws of technical development of the economy, the representation of the economic structure presupposes such a choice of its main element, which would not only maintain integrity in the process of technological shifts, but would also be the bearer of technological changes.
As a specified element, a set of technologically related industries was proposed that maintains integrity in the process of its development. By means of the same type of technological chains (TC), such aggregates are combined into a stable self-reproducing integrity, a conglomerate of related industries - a technological order (TU). The latter covers a closed reproductive cycle - from the extraction of natural resources and professional training to non-productive consumption. Based on such a representation of the technological structure of the economy, its dynamics can be described as a process of development and a consistent change in technological patterns.
TU has a complex internal structure. Its core is formed by a set of basic technological processes that underlie the corresponding basic technological sets (TS) and are coupled through complementary technological processes. Technological chains that make up the TS cover the TS of all levels of resource processing and are closed to the corresponding type of non-productive consumption.
2 Periodization of technological modes
In more detail, the periodization of technological modes is as follows.
. The basis of the first technological order is mechanization textile industry. The basic innovations of this mode are Kay's shuttle-aircraft machine (1733), the spinning machines of Watt (1735), Hargreave and Arkwright, the mechanical looms of Robertson and Horrocks (1760s).
Also, new technologies for processing fabrics (dyeing, printing fabrics, etc.) were introduced. The mechanization of the textile industry is associated with the development of the production of structural materials. In ferrous metallurgy, charcoal was replaced by coal. At the same time, innovations in the field of metalworking appeared. The economic recovery ensured the development of transport infrastructure.
However, at the beginning of the 19th century, there was a saturation of demand for textile products, in connection with this, a search began for new directions for investing capital.
In the first technological mode, energy was used directly without its transformation.
.The basis of the second technological order is the creation of a steam engine. It served as the basis for the development of heavy industry.
The rapid development of metalworking and the creation of a steam engine are the main conditions for the production of various machines and the mechanization of labor, both in many industries and in construction. There was a rapid growth in ferrous metallurgy, the coal industry, and transport engineering.
The second technological order was characterized by large-scale railway construction.
The global mechanization of labor and the concentration of production were accompanied by the growth of heavy engineering and the mining industry, the development of metallurgy and machine tool building.
Over time, the possibilities of improving technology and organizing large-scale production using a steam engine were exhausted. At the same time, there was a saturation of the demand of the population, based mainly on products Agriculture and light industry.
In the second technological mode, there is a single-stage conversion of fuel energy into mechanical energy of the engine, similar to a causal relationship (proximate cause).
The basis of the third technological order is the use of electric motors, the intensive development of electrical engineering. At the same time there was a specialization of steam engines. Electrical technology ensured further growth in the mechanization of production and labor productivity. Electroplating processes for refining copper and electrolytically extracting oxygen and hydrogen were introduced. With the advent of the electric motor, production machines have become more flexible and mobile. The variety of engineering production accelerated further progress in ferrous metallurgy.
During the third cycle, blast-furnace technology and steel rolling technologies were introduced.
Rapid engineering and ferrous metallurgy contributed to the technical re-equipment and growth of the mining industry.
Also, in the third technological mode, the basic technologies of inorganic chemistry were introduced and widely used: the ammonia process of obtaining soda; production of sulfuric acid by the contact method; production of nitric acid by contact oxidation of ammonia and direct fixation of atmospheric nitrogen, production of mineral fertilizers; coke production; petrochemical production; production of synthetic dyes; production explosives; electrochemical technology.
The technological aggregates of the third technological order continued to be reproduced until the mid-1960s, but since the mid-1930s the main engine of fuel and energy resources has been the production of a new technological order.
In the third technological mode, when using electricity, there is a transformation and distribution of electricity flows in the form of a similar chain (tree) of cause-and-effect relationships.
The basis of the fourth technological order is the chemical industry, the automotive industry, and the production of motorized weapons.
This stage is characterized by comprehensive mechanization of production, automation of many basic technological processes, widespread use of skilled labor, and growth in the specialization of production.
During the life cycle of the fourth technological mode, the outstripping development of the electric power industry continued. Oil has become the main energy carrier, and road transport has become the main mode of transport. A global telecommunications system was created based on telephone and radio communications.
By the mid-1970s, the fourth technological order had reached the limits of its expansion in developed countries. The population's demand for durable goods and consumer goods has been met.
In the fourth technological mode, electrical appliances for domestic use appear - not only industrial, but also domestic use of electricity (an analogue of arbitrary causality).
The basis of the fifth technological order is the intensive development of information and communication technologies.
Microelectronics is a key factor during the unfolding scientific and technological revolution. The other key factor is the software.
Among the driving industries that form the core of the fifth technological order, electronic components and devices (including semiconductor and related devices), electronic storage devices, resistances, transformers, connectors, electronic computers, counting machines, radio and telecommunications equipment can be singled out. , laser equipment, software and maintenance services computer science.
Among the main supporting industries of the fifth technological order, one should point out the production of automation and telecommunications equipment.
On the 5th technological order, in information systems ah (Internet, etc.) phenomena similar to mass (social causality) are observed.
3 Interaction of technological structures in the economy
technological order economics production
Economic dynamics in world economic thought is defined as an uneven and indefinite process of the evolutionary development of social production. Whereas the scientific and technical progress is presented as a complex interaction of various technological alternatives that are implemented by cooperating and competing economic entities in certain conditions of the corresponding institutional environment. As a result of complex processes of learning and adaptation of society to new technological possibilities, these alternatives are selected, as well as their implementation in the form of structural changes in social production. These processes have a variety of non-linear positive and negative feedback that determine the dynamics of the interaction of technological and social changes.
The use of such an unconventional understanding of economic dynamics allows us to take a fresh look at the issues of studying the features and patterns of technical and economic development (FER), to identify and try to solve the problems of STP management. In economic theory, the study of the interaction of technological shifts acquires wide significance. also in modern conditions it is very important to study the problems of forecasting world economic development in the long term, measuring the socio-economic efficiency of directions and branches of scientific and technical progress. Among practical problems, the most important are: the adaptation of society to new technological opportunities with the help of modern institutional and organizational change, compensation of social resistance to organizational and economic changes in production, determination of priorities for fuel and energy resources and identification of the most effective ways to develop production, including in Russia.
A new approach to the study of economic dynamics involves the emergence of a new view of the economic structure. To study the processes of technical and economic development, it is necessary to develop a certain point of view on economic reality, one that could guarantee the “transparency” of the economic system in the process of technical transformations. The stability of the elements of the system and the relationship between them provide this "transparency". The representation of the economic structure is adequate to the task of studying the patterns of technical changes in the economy, it involves such a choice of its main element that would maintain integrity in the process of technological shifts, and would also be a carrier of technological changes.
This element is a set of technologically related industries, which maintains integrity in the process of its development. With the help of technological chains of the same type, these aggregates form a stable self-reproducing integrity, a connection of related industries or, in other words, a technological structure, which, in turn, embraces a closed reproduction cycle. The beginning of this cycle is the extraction of natural resources and professional training, and the final stage is non-productive consumption. Based on this idea, the dynamics of the technological structure of the economy is nothing but a process of development and a consistent change in technological patterns.
Within the technological mode, a closed macro-level production cycle is carried out, which includes the extraction and receipt of primary resources, as well as their processing and production of end products that satisfy the needs of the corresponding type of public consumption. When the technological mode is considered in the dynamics of functioning, it is a reproducing integrity or the so-called reproductive circuit. In the case when the technological mode is considered in statics, it can be characterized "as a certain set of units that are similar in terms of quality characteristics of resource technologies and products", in other words, as an economic level. It is characterized by a single technical level of the industries that form it, interconnected by vertical and horizontal flows of qualitatively homogeneous resources and relying on the common resources of a skilled workforce, on a common scientific and technical potential, etc.
The technological structure has a complex internal structure. The core of the technological order forms a set of basic technological processes that are the foundation of the corresponding basic technological sets and are coupled with the help of complementary technological processes. The next component of the technological order is technological chains, covering all technological aggregates of all levels of resource processing. Technological chains are closed to the corresponding type of non-productive consumption, which closes the reproductive circuit of the technological mode and, at the same time, serves as an integral source of its expansion, ensures the reproduction of labor resources of the appropriate quality.
As part of the economic structure, there are integral reproducing complexes of associated industries. Their presence is due to the unevenness of STP. According to a common simplified view, scientific and technical progress is a constant process of modernizing social production by so-called "washing out" of obsolete products and technologies and then introducing new ones. In fact, technical and economic development occurs in a way of alternating stages of evolutionary changes and periods of structural restructuring of the economy. In the course of these changes, a complex of radically new technologies is introduced and the old ones are replaced.
In the course of the development of industries of the corresponding technological order, when they are replaced, conditions are created in which structural changes in the economy take place. Sequentially replacing each other stages of scientific and technical progress and the corresponding technological modes are interconnected, they are successive. The result of the development of the previous stage is the formation of the material and technical base for the formation of the next stage. Thus, a new technological order is born within the old one. Then, developing, it adapts the productions that have developed within the framework of the previous stage of scientific and technical progress to the needs of the technological processes that form its core.
The formation and change of technological patterns is expressed in a market economy in the form of long waves of economic conjuncture. The phases of the life cycle of the technological order - formation, growth, maturity, decline - affect the rate of economic growth and the level of economic activity, changing them. These indicators increase in the phase of formation, in the growth phase they reach a maximum. After that, in the phase of decline, they reach a minimum, since the possibilities for improving the industries included in the technological mode are exhausted, and there is a glut of the corresponding social needs.
In this phase, there is a sharp drop in the profitability of capital investments in traditional technologies. Under the influence of this factor, radical innovations are introduced that form the core of a new technological order. With the spread of innovations, a new cycle of wave-like modernizations of the economic situation begins, which is associated with the expansion of a new technological order and is able to replace the previous one. In addition, the mechanism of market self-organization synchronizes innovations and shifts in various sectors, such as engineering, production of structural materials, raw materials, energy, construction, communications. Radical innovations stimulate and complement each other; they are synchronized, and the basis of such synchronization is technological interdependence. Inventions and radical discoveries that have appeared within one industry may remain unclaimed, unrealized, until the corresponding innovations are created in other industries, and also until such conditions are formed in which an integral system of associated industries is formed. In turn, the production of one technological mode simultaneously reaches the phase of maturity and limits of growth, at the moment when the type of non-productive consumption common to them is saturated and the possibilities of technological improvement that unite them in technological chains are exhausted.
NEW TECHNOLOGICAL WAY OF RUSSIA
1 Development of a new technological order in Russia
Recently, the attention of many researchers and scientists has been riveted to the problem of the formation of a new technological order. At the present stage of development of human civilization, it is necessary to make the transition to the sixth technological mode. On a global scale, the regularity of this stage lies in the deep, comprehensive integration of technologies and the expansion of the technological basis. However, Russia on the way to the sixth technological mode faces numerous difficulties.
The presence of one or another technological order in Russia at the present time can be characterized as follows. The third technological order is now in the stage of stagnation, and the share of its technologies is about 30%. The fourth technological mode is in the phase of maturity with a share of over 50%. The fifth technological order has reached a phase of intensive growth and its technologies account for 10% As for the sixth technological order, its share is still very small and amounts to less than 1%. All this allows us to conclude that Russia is in the fourth technological order in combination with the third and elements of the fifth technological order. The sixth technological order in Russia has not yet been formed.
The emergence of a new technological order in the world began approximately 15 - 20 years ago. So already in the early 1990s, in the depths of the fifth technological mode, new elements began to be more and more clearly traced, which cannot be called the core of this mode. Thus, a new sixth technological mode is being formed, and the period of dominance of the fifth is reduced. This technological order is already reaching the limits of its growth. Rise and fall in energy prices, and global financial crisis are sure signs that the dominant mode reaches the final phase of the life cycle and the restructuring of the economy begins on the basis of the next mode.
The starting point in the formation of the sixth technological mode is the development of nanotechnologies in the transformation of substances and the design of new material objects, cellular technologies for the modification of living organisms, including genetic engineering methods. These key factors, together with the electronics industry, information technology and software, form the core of a new way of life.
Obviously, the key areas of its development are biotechnologies, represented by the achievements of molecular biology and genetic engineering, global information networks, artificial intelligence systems and integrated high-speed transport systems. The development of flexible automation of production, space technologies, the production of structural materials, the nuclear industry, and air transportation will continue. Expanding the use of hydrogen as an environmentally friendly energy carrier will complement the growth of nuclear energy and natural gas consumption. The use of renewable energy sources will expand significantly. There will be even greater intellectualization of processes in production, in most industries there will be a transition to a continuous innovation process and continuous education in most professions. The "intellectual society" will come to replace the "consumer society", putting as a priority the requirements for the quality of life and the comfort of the living environment. In the production sector, there will be a transition to environmentally friendly and waste-free technologies. Progress in the field of information processing technologies, telecommunication systems, financial technologies will entail further globalization of the economy, the formation of a single world market for goods, capital and labor.
Within the framework of the formation of the sixth technological order, information technologies play an important role, without which it is difficult to imagine the development of modern production. Currently, the issue of transition from integrated automated production control systems to systems that would support all stages of the product life cycle from market research to operation and disposal of the finished product is topical. This is especially true for the creation of complex science-intensive products. CALS-technologies will help solve this problem. (Continuous Acquisition and Life cycle Support) stands for continuous information support of the product life cycle.
The concept of CALS originated in the 1970s. in the US Department of Defense, when it became necessary to improve management efficiency and reduce the cost of information interaction in the process of ordering, supplying and operating military equipment and weapons. The concept was a solution to the problem, which was to create a "single information space" that would ensure the rapid exchange of data between the customer (federal authorities), the manufacturer and consumer of military equipment. Initially, it was based on the ideology of the product life cycle, while covering the phases of production and operation. At that time, the main direction of CALS was a paperless technology for the interaction of organizations ordering, manufacturing and operating military equipment.
2 Problems of the formation of a new technological order in Russia
At present, the reproduction system of the sixth technological order is being formed, the formation and growth of which in the next two to three decades will determine the development of the world economy. In the most developed countries - the USA, Japan, the leading countries of Western Europe, which have a strong scientific background and an active innovation system, the outlines of a new way of life can already be recognized.
According to experts, the core of the new order will be the so-called NBIC-technologies: nano- and biotechnologies, including genetic engineering, information and communication technologies of the new generation (quantum, optical computers), cognitive technologies. In addition to them, environmentally friendly energy is also referred to as radical innovations. The results of a number of studies, in particular those conducted in Japan
The transition to a new technological order cannot be carried out without large-scale investments in the development of new technologies and the modernization of the economy based on them. But the need for such investments usually far exceeds the capacity of existing financial institutions. As a result, the role of the state, which has all the possibilities of concentrating resources for mastering new technologies and accepting investment risks, increases many times over. Therefore, the decision of the governments of a number of countries (both economically developed and developing), despite the crisis, to increase spending on research and development has become quite natural.
The United States traditionally occupies a leading position in the development and application of many new technologies, but there is still a “gap” in the functional chain at the stage between obtaining a promising development and its commercialization. This, for example, was pointed out by the Council on Science and Technology of the Presidential Administration in its report “National strategic plan in the field of advanced technologies”, announced on February 24, 2012. In order to close the gap, an extensive network of 15 specialized institutes of industrial innovations will be created (based on the implementation of public-private partnership mechanisms). It is planned to allocate about $1 billion from the federal budget to finance this program.
The United States is taking all measures to maintain its leading position at the stage of formation and development of a new technological order. In Russia, unfortunately, the sixth technological mode is not yet formed. According to experts, the share of technologies of the fifth order in our country is about 10% (in the military-industrial complex and in the aerospace industry), the fourth - over 50%, the third - about 30%.
At the same time, it should be noted that in recent years the Russian leadership has paid great attention innovative issues. Government spending on R&D and innovation programs is growing, the Strategy 2020 and the Strategy for Innovative Development have been adopted, which, by the way, continue to be subjected to fair criticism. At present, almost all elements of the innovation infrastructure have been created in the country, by analogy with the best Western models, but it continues to be fragmented. The inefficiency of its work can be explained both by the too rapid change of interests on the part of the governing structures to one or another institutional form, and the lack of proper study of the question of how these institutions (technological platforms, innovation clusters, innovation lifts, etc.) can work in Russian practice, and the disinterest of businesses to invest in R&D.
In addition, a big problem for our country is still the timely practical development of existing scientific and technical groundwork in key areas of the formation of a new technological order, which is primarily due to the lack of a domestic market for products. own production. Moreover, the proposed innovative projects often do not fit well with existing production processes. Therefore, the results of Russian research and development are increasingly in demand abroad, and the function of commercializing scientific achievements is actually performed by foreign companies.
Unfortunately, disputes over the ways of modernization and transition to a post-industrial economy still do not cease in the expert community. There are two diametrically opposed points of view - either the borrowing of foreign technologies, or the implementation of a technological breakthrough in certain areas. However, both the borrowing of Western technologies and the introduction of domestic developments are not possible without a highly developed industry in the country. Without expanding production to the domestic market, innovative development will never acquire the necessary scale and will not turn into a system. Neither the nanoindustry, nor biotechnology, nor a number of other innovative sectors will have dynamic development as long as there is no industrial policy that determines priorities and preferences for such projects.
IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL MODES ON THE ECONOMY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION.
1 Prospects for the development of innovative technologies at the enterprises of modern Russia
The main problems for Russia are the problems of modernization of the industrial complex, the transition of the economy to an innovative path of development.
The tasks set for innovative development predetermine the need to develop a certain integrated indicator. In modern conditions, such a concept as a technological order, characterized by a set of technologies that are used at a certain level of development of production and economy, can claim its role. Scientific and technological progress is the main driving force behind the process of changing technological patterns.
Russia lags far behind the leading industrialized countries in terms of the introduction of new technologies. In order to develop high-tech industries in the country based on the use of innovative technologies, it is necessary to comprehensively form and expand the reproduction of technologies of the sixth technological mode, which can become a technical and innovative basis for economic development in the long term. Innovative and technological re-equipment of industrial production sectors, development and implementation of advanced technologies at enterprises is the basis for the formation and implementation of an innovative development strategy. All this makes it possible to increase the competitiveness of the domestic economy and its long-term growth.
Over a long period of transformation of the structure of industry under the influence of various external and internal factors, the technological component of Russia has changed at a slow pace, which causes today's industrial complex to lag behind the level of industrialized countries.
Among the main shortcomings, one can single out the low innovative activity of enterprises in the industrial complex, the low rate of renewal of fixed capital, as well as the lack of investment for the modernization of enterprises in the industrial complex and increasing their growth.
These factors directly determine the low share of the sixth technological order in the structure of industry, however, the existing achievements are an important prerequisite for the transition to an innovation-oriented economy based on the achievements of science and technology.
Thus, in terms of the level of development of one of the carrier areas of the fifth technological order - aerospace technologies - Russia occupies one of the leading places in the world. In particular, the share Russian enterprises in the market of space launches reaches a third. Russia also retains its leading positions in the military aircraft market, although the share of revenue Russian companies in the global space technology market is about 2%.
As for the information sector in the Russian economy, we can say that it is developing quite dynamically. However, with the volume of the world market software in 400-500 billion dollars a year, domestic participation in it is a little more than 200 million dollars, i.e. 0.04%. While the areas of production of innovative products require the use of the most modern information systems, as the situation on the world market of science-intensive products is developing towards a complete transition to computer technology for the design, manufacture and marketing of products (CALS-technologies). Domestic science-intensive products that do not have modern computer support for their life cycle will significantly lag behind similar products manufactured abroad in the system of new technologies. electronic technology. Therefore, the use of CALS-technologies is necessary for the Russian economy to enter the innovative path of development, to increase the competitiveness of products manufactured by Russian enterprises. Russian enterprises, especially those that create science-intensive products to increase competitiveness, it is necessary to start developing and implementing projects for the use of CALS technologies that would fully cover the product life cycle.
Nevertheless, Russian science has sufficient potential for the development of technologies of the sixth technological order. Knowledge has been gained, very promising achievements have been made, the timely practical development of which can ensure the leading position of Russian enterprises on the crest of a new long wave of economic growth.
Russian scientists have a priority in the discovery of technologies for cloning organisms, stem cells and optoelectronic measurements. All this allows us to conclude that the Russian scientific and technological potential has the necessary prerequisites for the rapid development of a new technological order.
2 Evolution of the technological structure of the Russian economy
Held in the intercountry quantitative analysis trajectories of the FER showed that the technical development of our economy followed the same trajectory as that of other countries. However, it was significantly slower. The relatively lower rates of technical development of the Soviet economy were explained by its reproducible technological diversity, which made it difficult to timely reallocate resources to the development of new technologies. By the beginning of the 90s. the simultaneous reproduction of the III, IV, and V technological modes that simultaneously existed in the Soviet economic structure stabilized.
Starting from the 80s of the last century, the growth rates of the industries of the fifth TU, in developed and newly industrialized countries, reached 25-30% per year, 3-4 times higher than the growth rates of industrial production as a whole, and their contribution to GDP growth reached 80-90s 50%. This indicates that the fifth technological mode entered a phase of rapid growth at that time, accompanied by a rapid increase in the efficiency of the economy. For example, the growth rate of labor productivity in the private sector of the American economy increased, respectively, from 0.80 in 1990-1995. up to 3.05% in 1995 - 2000 According to the identified patterns of long-term technical and economic development, it is possible to predict the further growth of the fifth technical standard for about another decade, during which it will determine the development of the world economy. To measure the relevant technological shifts, along with indicators of the production of goods representing the core of the fifth technological order, we used indicators of market saturation with communications, computers, electronics, as well as the density of the Internet. The time series of the corresponding indicators for Russia and other countries were processed using the principal component method, the first of which, in contrast to the developed capitalist countries, where V TU has been rapidly expanding since the mid-80s, its growth rates in the economy of the USSR at that time fell sharply. There was a qualitative leap in the accumulation of disproportions due to the reproducing technological diversity of the Soviet economy. The simultaneous expanded reproduction of the three technological modes, due to general resource constraints, led in the mid-1970s to a decrease in the growth rate of each of them, including the new (fifth), as well as to the overall rate of economic growth and a sharp slowdown in progressive structural changes. As shown in, the development of the production of the fourth technological mode took place in the USSR with a delay of three decades compared to the global trajectory of the fuel and energy resources. The measurement results show a serious lag in our economy in mastering the production of the fifth technological order even in the embryonic phase of its development.
At the same time, in terms of the level of development of one of the carrier areas of the fifth TU - aerospace technologies - Russia occupies one of the leading places in the world. In particular, the share of Russian firms in the market of space launches reaches a third, leading positions remain in the military aircraft market. True, the share of income of Russian companies in the global space technology market is only about 2%.
At the current stage of growth of the fifth technological mode, which has reached the phase of maturity, its distribution in Russia takes place in the supporting industries, while the core remains underdeveloped. In the industries of the core of the fifth TU, such as the production of microelectronics and electronic engineering, radio engineering, optoelectronics, civil aviation, high-grade steel, composite and new materials, industrial equipment for high technology industries, precision and electronic instrumentation, instruments and devices for communication systems and modern systems communications, computers and other components of computer technology, compared with the level of 1990-1991. there has been a significant decline,” states Academician Fedosov. It is very difficult to overcome the lag behind the world level in these technologies, even with impressive investments.”
In the phase of maturity of the dominant TU, overcoming the technological gap in the field of its key technologies requires huge investments, while the acquisition of imported equipment allows you to quickly meet existing needs. Accordingly, this is happening in our country, as evidenced by the growth rates of the fleet of personal computers, the number of Internet users, the volume of exports of software services and other indicators of the expansion of the use of technologies of the fifth technological order in its supporting industries at a rate of about 20-50% per year.
It follows from this that the expansion of the fifth technological order in Russia is of a catch-up imitative nature. This is evidenced by the relative dynamics of the spread of its various components - the closer the technology is to the sphere of final consumption, the higher the rate of its spread. The rapid expansion of the supporting industries of the fifth technological order takes place on an imported technological base, which deprives the chances for adequate development of the key technologies of its core. This means that the Russian economy is being drawn into the trap of non-equivalent exchange with the foreign core of this technological order, in which the bulk of intellectual rent is generated.
Judging by the analysis of the spread of a new technological order in different countries, its development in Russia is also lagging behind. But this lag occurs in the phase of embryonic development and can be overcome in the growth phase. To do this, before a large-scale restructuring of the world economy, it is necessary to master the key industries of the core of the new technological order, the further expansion of which will make it possible to receive intellectual rent on a global scale.
CONCLUSION
The main task for Russia today is the transition to an innovative way of development, building an innovative economy. To implement this transition, it is necessary to use the technologies of modern technological modes, as well as introduce new technologies in key areas of the post-industrial (sixth) technological mode.
Today, when the whole world is on the verge of the sixth technological order, it is important to carry out a deep comprehensive integration of technologies, as well as to expand the technological basis. Under the current conditions, our country has the opportunity to abandon the inertial path of development, which is based on raw material exports and develop technologies and industries of the sixth technological order.
In the course of the study, an analysis was made of the functioning of the industry, due to the development of technological structures, as well as their interaction in the economic structure. It was found that the dynamics of the technological structure of the economy is nothing but a process of development and a consistent change in technological patterns. In addition, in the course of the development of industries of the corresponding technological order, when they are replaced, conditions are created in which structural changes in the economy take place.
The features of the development of the sixth technological mode were considered, its key technologies were identified. The main problems that Russia faces in the transition to a new technological order are identified. A method for solving these problems is proposed by introducing technologies of the sixth technological order, namely CALS technologies that help manage the entire life cycle of a product (product).
The paper proposed a model of CALS (IIS) technologies - a model of technologies for managing the entire life cycle of a product, the core of which is an integrated information environment (IIS). The necessity of having IIS in an enterprise, which sets itself the goal of increasing competitiveness, making business processes within the enterprise transparent and easy to manage, is considered. In the course of the study, a characteristic was given to the main technologies and principles of building an integrated information environment of an enterprise, such as parallel engineering, analysis and reengineering of business processes, and paperless data exchange.
Ultimately, the prospects for the development of innovative technologies at the enterprises of modern Russia were assessed and recommendations were made for the development of an innovative economy.
Thus, in this final qualification work, the theory of technological modes was considered in detail, as well as the impact of changing technological modes on the restructuring of the economy. The technologies of the new sixth technological order and their role in the implementation of the transition of the Russian economy to an innovative development path were analyzed.
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One of the most popular theses put forward recently by both politicians of various ranks and representatives of the scientific community has become the thesis about the need for the rapid development of science and the dynamic implementation of its achievements. Since this task covers many aspects of our life, a special integrating indicator is required to assess the success of its implementation. Today, the concept of “technological order” is increasingly claiming its role.
The world owes the appearance of this concept to the famous Russian scientist-economist N. Kondratiev, who headed the Moscow Market Institute, which existed under the People's Commissariat of Finance of the USSR. Studying the history of the development of the world economy, N. Kondratiev came to the idea of the existence of large economic cycles lasting 50–55 years, which are characterized by a certain level of development of productive forces (“technological order”). As a rule, such cycles end with crises, followed by the transition of productive forces to a higher level of development.
According to Kondratiev's theory, the scientific and technological revolution develops in waves, with cycles lasting about 50 years. To date, five technological modes (waves) are known.
First wave (1785–1835) formed a technological order based on new technologies in the textile industry, the use of water energy.
Second wave (1830–1890)- the accelerated development of railway and water transport based on steam engines, the widespread introduction of steam engines in industrial production.
Third wave (1880-1940)- use in industrial production electrical energy, the development of heavy engineering and the electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. The spread of radio communications, telegraph, the development of the automotive industry. Formation of large firms, cartels, syndicates and trusts. The dominance of monopolies in the markets. The beginning of the concentration of banking and financial capital.
Fourth wave (1930-1990)- the formation of a world order based on the further development of energy with the use of oil and oil products, gas, communications, new synthetic materials. The period of mass production of cars, tractors, aircraft, various types of weapons, consumer goods. The widespread use of computers and software products. The use of atomic energy for military and peaceful purposes. Conveyor technologies are becoming the basis of mass production. Formation of transnational and international companies that make direct investments in the markets of various countries.
Fifth wave (1985–2035) relies on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, the use of new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close interaction in the field of technology, product quality control, and innovation planning.
It is assumed that with the acceleration of scientific and technological progress, the period between changes in technological modes will be reduced.
Today the world is on the threshold of the sixth technological order. Its contours are just beginning to appear in the developed countries of the world, primarily in the USA, Japan and China, and are characterized by a focus on the development and application of science-intensive, or, as they say now, “high technologies”. Everyone is now talking about bio- and nanotechnologies, genetic engineering, membrane and quantum technologies, photonics, micromechanics, thermonuclear energy - the synthesis of achievements in these areas should lead to the creation, for example, of a quantum computer, artificial intelligence and, ultimately, provide access to fundamentally a new level in the management systems of the state, society, economy.
Forecasters believe that while maintaining the current pace of technical and economic development, the sixth technological order will begin to take shape in 2010-2020, and will enter the phase of maturity in the 2040s. At the same time, in 2020-2025, a new scientific, technical and technological revolution will take place, the basis of which will be developments that synthesize the achievements of the above-mentioned basic areas. There are grounds for such predictions. In the USA, for example, the share of the productive forces of the fifth technological order is 60%, the fourth - 20%. And about 5% already fall on the sixth technological order.
As for the situation in Russia, in the paradigm of technological modes, the fourth technological mode is industry, and primarily mechanical engineering and energy. The fifth order became a kind of transitional stage of an imitation-virtual nature, the main elements of which were money and information. The fifth technological order is primarily devoted to financial mechanisms and information processing mechanisms. The final stage of the fifth, financial and technological order was marked by the fact that they changed places, and with the help of information it became possible to earn money, as a result of which the so-called dot-coms appeared - companies whose business model is entirely related to working on the Internet.
The problems that have arisen at the present stage were also connected with these changes. In particular, it turned out that for a number of reasons the fourth technological order cannot withstand the challenges that were formed in the fifth, and the fifth has outgrown its capabilities. That is, the modern financial information machine has reached the threshold of its complexity. From systems theory, we know that if a certain system has approached the threshold of complexity, then either it collapses or simplifies, changing its structure, until control is restored. This is what is called a systemic crisis.
The essence of the sixth technological order is the replacement of information with meaning, knowledge, the priority of the producing rather than the consuming economy. A fundamentally different organization of society is being formed, which is becoming more networked, and because of this, its clustering, granulation occurs. So, if within the framework of the fourth and fifth modes it was possible to speak of a vertically built organization of society, then the sixth mode implies, due to a number of inevitable properties, precisely a large horizontal spatio-temporal distribution. The modern globalized world continues to live in the management system, which is formed in the fourth, partly in the fifth order, that is, the vertical. It works perfectly in conditions of mobilization and the need to solve some super-task. Besides, in financial sector to achieve a qualitative transition to a new state, it is necessary to move from short money to long money, to long term investment, and, as a result, to super-projects. In the Soviet period, space exploration could serve as an example of such a super-project, initially considered as an offshoot of the program for the development of the military-industrial complex. This super project was focused on the long term.
Management of the sixth order is fundamentally different and has a network character. The network as a mechanism for exchanging information and making decisions allows you to maximize the circle of people involved in the development and adoption of managerial decisions.
The share of technologies of the fifth order in Russia is about 10%, and primarily only in the most developed industries: in the military-industrial complex and in the aerospace industry. More than 50% of technologies belong to the fourth level, and almost a third - even to the third. This explains the complexity of the task facing domestic science and technology: in order for our country to be able to join the ranks of states with the sixth technological mode over the next 10 years, it must, figuratively speaking, jump over the stage - through the fifth mode.
However, to achieve such a result, significant changes are needed regarding the forms and methods of management. They can be implemented if science has the status of an independent branch of the economy with all the ensuing consequences. The leading countries of the world have already come to this. Most of them have a strong scientific backlog, an active system of innovations that allows creating and constantly maintaining this backlog at a high level, quickly turning it into practical results. It must be remembered that Russia's entry into the sixth technological mode is not an end in itself, but a matter of integrated economic development, security and international status countries, achievements high level prosperity in our country.
SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL ORDER: LAST KONDRATIEV CYCLE.
Lyudmila Vzdorova
applicant of the Department of Criminal Procedure and Criminalistics South Federal University,
Russia, Rostov-on-Don
ANNOTATION
The origin, emergence and development of the next technological order causes a fairly large number of disputes, both among theorists and practitioners of economic research.
A new technological order almost always brings with it the uncertainty and vagueness of the next economic stratum, but in our case, the special situation of the whole situation is complicated by the fact that, according to most experts, the next technological order should occur in an era of a different economic reality, which consists in the transparency of the denominator of the technological revolution based on the openness of all processes.
In the article, the author refers to the research, judgments and hypotheses of the famous Soviet economist N.D. Kondratiev, and adherents of his economic theories, from which it follows that the sixth technological order will be the completion of a galaxy of economic cycles.
ABSTRACT
The birth, the emergence and development of the next technological order is a sufficiently large number of disputes, like the theorists and practitioners of Economic Research.
New technological way almost always carries with it uncertainty and nebula following the economic strata, but in this case the special situation of the whole situation is complicated by the fact that the next technological structure must occur for the majority of the experts, in the era of an economic reality, consisting in Transparent denominator technological revolution based on transparency of all processes.
The author refers to the research, hypotheses and propositions known Soviet economist N.D. Kondratyev and adherents of his economic theories, from which it follows that the sixth technological order will be held the end of a galaxy of economic cycles.
Keywords: sixth technological order, Kondratiev cycles, third world war.
keywords: sixth technological order, Kondratieff cycles, a third world war.
According to the statements of most scientists, the next economic cycle and technological order, in its formation, usually begins with new discoveries and technologies, which are then accompanied by major social upheavals, wars and revolutions, which at the same time includes a social and scientific shake-up of the world order. Of course, these protoforms of the theory of technological modes are a template for evaluation, containing a set of ideal conditions, and each scientific revolution has its own face.
The sixth technological order, as already noted above, already in its initial formation contains quite a lot of elements of an open society, which most likely will determine one of the main trends of all technological innovations and discoveries, but the author is not interested in this fact, but in the fact that the second empirical regularity of the development of any way is wars, revolutions and a radical (social) revolution in the life of society, and whether the latter can be a self-sufficient condition for the beginning of a new way or war is necessary for the onset of the upward phase of Kondratiev.
Now all over the world there has been a trend among states - the militarization of the system, whether it be democracy or authoritarianism, a republic or a monarchy, federalism or a unitary state - all resources, including scientific ones, are aimed at strengthening weapons and upholding the right to their own sovereignty not only among states but also peoples and nations.
Stimulation of militarization in the sense of scientific research (especially not applied in people's lives) has positive side- the growth of scientific research and potential, because there are quite a few examples in history when discoveries serving for military purposes are subsequently applied in civilian life, creating new world scientific and technical potential (during World War II - a vaccine against tularemia and tuberculosis, carbinal glue, etc.).
Can militarization, as the main goal of technological progress, act as a sufficiently significant engine as a social shake-up, and, in combination with the openness of the processes, which consist in the development of individual communication technologies, lead to the beginning of process singularities, and the end of the era of Kondratiev cycles?
Indeed, such quite incompatible phenomena come into play, as initially containing mental contradictions, with the main features inherent in militarism - the closedness of the process and the transparency of the economy - openness, which will have to develop in unison in the sixth technological order.
Of these two trends, two topical questions are outlined: “Can it be sufficient if one of the conditions for the development of a new way and cycle is not war and revolution, but militarization of the economies of various countries as an impetus for the development technological process, or the need for more serious shock?”, and “Is it possible to build an open society on the dualism of struggle conflict between openness and closeness?».
Extrapolation of the moment of singularity due to militarization as the root cause of the emergence and formation of the sixth technological order, which contains openness, a phenomenon that society has yet to experience, can be a self-sufficient motive for the growth of scientific creativity in all areas, albeit starting with questions of research related to the military. potential.
self-sufficient to the extent that no traditional wars required and military conflicts since discoveries will make a revolution in the life of society a priori, and temporary militarization and redistribution of spheres of influence by the world (hybrid conflict or hybrid war, for example, Crimea) will only serve as an impetus for a jump in research in various fields Sciences. After all, there were historical precedents of countries leading economic strata and technological structures, when the states themselves did not enter world wars, using their authority as guarantors of economic stability in the world and advanced innovations. Such countries include Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands (perhaps only in the Dutch period of world capitalist development from 1756 to 1816), which almost always stood at the head of the management of economic and technological innovations, and at the same time never experienced serious social upheavals and destructive wars.
Does the empirical scenario and the root cause that pushes people to discover depend on choice or is it a matter of endless chaos in the development of development scenarios, and in the light of this it is necessary to understand: is there such a thing as controlled chaos, or is it impossible to control the unorganized elements: does the human will play, at least some kind of a role in the formula for the development of the universe, or everything is a manifestation of endless scenarios of development in the Nth degree of the collective unconscious; whether it is possible to make a choice between what lies ahead or everything is presented as an endless chain of random queues; whether the will acts as a choice of the next order, and whether the will of one can give rise to a series of random patterns that influenced everyone. The question of will in chaos theory is not so simple at first glance, as it seems, because if we prove that there is something like that, then the course of history directly depends on the category variable will, but how to establish the pattern of its appearance and influence on the sequence of events.
Is it possible, volitional staging of the situational process of some serious social upheaval, which would be sufficient in strength as a revolution or war, while in fact it was not. Can the will of one, several, groups of people, etc., influence this development of events, or is their course predetermined by a chain of random events? Is it possible to create such a paradigm when you can control chaos: simultaneously perform an action at a specified time and achieve the desired result . For example, the theory that “the fifth cycle should have ended in 2001”, “ and was only artificially delayed due to the organization of the 9/11 attacks, but we are seeing its end today» .
And so, the basis of any technological order is, first of all, technologies that, in the broad sense of the word, change the world, and the latter can be changed in different ways: it can be a new method of production, or new materials that affect society, up to the introduction in everyday life - in a word, something that changes the consciousness of an individual in society, acquiring the scale of the latter. And for this, a war or a military conflict is not at all necessary, the important thing is that this very world is no longer the same once and for all.
To do this, let's try to consider whether wars, military conflicts, revolutions affect the existing postulates in chaos, and determine whether in all 5 long waves (cycles) “upward phases (Kondratieff long waves) are richer in social upheavals (revolutions, wars) than downward ones, which are shrinking and changing, and does the “known winner in the war” always make a breakthrough in the economy, the scientific and technological revolution, etc. in the conditions of chaos?
Let us analyze by speculative imposition of the number of wars, military operations, conflicts, social revolutions on technological structures:
- First technological order 1770–1830 - 60 years (89 wars and military conflicts), of which, when the number of wars is superimposed on the time of the first technological order, the following picture emerges: at the start of distribution the first technological order of 1770-1790, which lasts 20 years - there are only 18 wars.
- The second technological order 1830–1880 – 50 years, 90 wars and military conflicts. Start of distribution the second technological order of 1830–1847, and takes 3 years less than the first and is seventeen years, and they account for 45 wars and military conflicts.
- Third technological order 1880–1930 - 50 years, 109 wars and military conflicts. The beginning of the spread of the third order from 1880–1897. is 17 years, and coincides with the second, but here, in contrast to it, there is a decrease in the indicator of wars and military conflicts to 34.
- Fourth technological order 1930–1970 – 40 years, 102 wars and military conflicts. Its feature in comparison with the previous first, second and third ways is the compression of time, with an increase in wars, military conflicts. At the start of distribution the fourth order is 13 years from 1930-1943 and accounts for about 37 wars.
- Fifth technological order lasts 40 years 1970-2010, 107 wars and military conflicts. This mode of time coincides with the fourth mode. Beginning of the fifth technological order 1970–1983 13 years - 45 wars.
From the above research, it can be concluded that the beginning of the technological order accounts for an average of 1/3 of all wars of the total number of wars that take place in one way or another (P.S. research on the number of wars in a particular technological order was carried out by the author based on materials from more than a hundred scientific articles and several dozen monographs).
In the second aspect, we will consider long waves using the same method, by speculative imposition of the number of wars, military operations, conflicts, social revolutions, only on Kondratiev cycles:
- The first long wave (cycle) Kondratiev 1780–1844. - lasts more than 60 years, 137 wars. Begins with an upward wave from 1780 to 1814. for a period of 34 years, during which there are 55 wars.
- The second long wave (cycle) of Kondratiev 1844–1990–1996, – more than 50 years, 81 wars. This cycle is shorter in time (almost 10 years), but is similar in structure to the first wave: the upswing takes longer than the downswing, but it has time differences. A feature of the second wave compared to the first is that it is five years less in the upward stage, therefore it lasts 29 years instead of 34 in the first, but there is an increase in the number of wars from 55 to 56 wars.
- Third long wave (cycle) 1890–1896 to 1929–1933, - more than 42 years, 94 wars. The stage of increase is close in terms of time to the second 24 years against 29 years, but 10 years less than the first; in terms of the number of wars, its performance in the rising stage is close to the first wave of the 53rd war.
- Fourth long wave (cycle) from 1933 to 1984 - over 51 years, 120 wars. More than the third wave, by 9 years, less than the first wave by 9 years, and equal in time to the second wave. Compared to the second and third waves in the rising stage, the fourth shows an increase to 69 wars against 40 and 41.
- Fifth long wave (cycle) from 1984 to 2015 - 31 years, demonstrates a record time compression compared to previous waves, this is its fundamental difference from other long waves from the first (for 29 years), the second (for 29 years), the third (for 11 years), the fourth (for 9 years) . The number of wars in the fourth long wave in the rising stage, which is 2 times longer than the downward stage (in this case, the indicators coincide with the third long wave), there are 55 wars.
In the second study on the ratio of the number of wars, revolutions and social upheavals to economic cycles, one can observe a picture that the number of the above-mentioned fluctuates on average from 1/3 to ½ for one or another economic wave (P.S. research on the number of wars in a particular economic cycle was carried out by the author based on more than a hundred scientific articles and several dozen monographs).
Comparing the number of wars at the beginning of technological modes and the upward stage of long waves (cycles) of Kondratiev, we can say that not always at the initial stage of these two processes, even half of the total number of wars involved in this mode occurs. These data give a serious reason to think about what can serve as self-sufficient conditions for the start of a new technological order.
Any technological revolution begins with a sharp transformation of the life of nations, nationalities, entire countries and states in the economic, political and social sense, the redistribution of spheres of influence and world capital in a short period of time by historical standards.
If we talk about the upcoming sixth technological order, it can be noted that society has already begun its primary transformation, not at all thanks to militarization, but to openness-oriented technologies, as a result of which a person has become modify its cognitive functions (memorization, drawing, etc.), perhaps this is the very self-sufficient social upheaval, and this fact is already difficult to change or disprove.
open technologies are the new kind resources, and when the latter appears, another redistribution of the one and those who will manage, regardless of whether the resource is the bowels of the earth, or the resource is the formation of a new mode of production, follows.
In our case, the stakes are even higher, since with the beginning of the sixth technological order, new type resource (openness), having taken possession and managing which, you can manage people in the broadest sense of the word (information, cultural, moral, ethical, economic, political, etc., for example, you can virtually rewrite the whole history), hence it is completely logical the current artificial militarization of states follows: society gives a message for openness, and states for militarization and closeness (with the inherent desire and desire to seize this type of resources individually).
The struggle between openness and closeness, militarization and transparency - this is exactly what one of the turns of the singularity of the beginning of the economy of the sixth technological order looks like, and the question of the redistribution of a new type of resource is just a technical one, consisting in the possibility of a peaceful settlement, possession of a new resource peacefully or with the use of force (wars and military conflicts), but far from being necessary for the growth of scientific potential and technology in society.
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Today, most countries in the world have a market economy. And the main feature of such a system is its instability. The economy goes through boom, peak, bust, and depression in succession. But each new cycle makes changes to the existing technological order until quantity turns into quality, and production moves to a new level. The impact on the economy of such innovations will be discussed in today's article.
Cyclic development
The growth of a market economy does not occur in an ascending line. It is characterized by fluctuations in business activity, which are periodic. Within the framework of the neoclassical direction, they are interpreted as cycles around the established long-term trend.
There are two views on their causes: scholastic and deterministic. The first comes from the fact that the factors that give rise to a change in the cycle are random. Depression in this case is the result of the impact on the national economy of internal and external impulses. The deterministic point of view assumes that the change of cycles is caused by well-defined factors of recession or recovery. Similarly, these two theories explain the change in technological structures.
Phases of the business cycle
Traditionally, four main types of cycles are distinguished, which differ in duration and are named after the name of the scientist who noticed them: Kitchin (3-4 years), Juglar (7-11 years), Kuznets (15-25), Kondratiev (45-60). Technological structures in the economy are just connected with long waves. In the cycles of entrepreneurial activity, four phases are distinguished: bottom (depression), rise (revival), peak, recession (recession). They are most clearly manifested in the medium-term Juglar fluctuations.
Phase features
The depression (bottom) is the lowest point on the graph of production and employment. It is believed that this phase cannot be long. But this assumption can easily be found refuted throughout history. For example, the Great Depression of the 1930s lasted for a full ten years with little fluctuation in business activity, up or down. However, many scientists believe that such exceptions only confirm the rule.
After the depression, the economy begins to recover. Its feature is the gradual expansion of production and the growth of employment of human resources. This stage is usually characterized by low inflation rates. Innovations with a short payback period are best introduced, since the population has not yet recovered from the difficult previous period. In this phase, demand begins to be realized, which was postponed during the depression.
Gradually, the economy reaches the top of the cycle. This phase is characterized by the lowest levels of inflation. It may disappear completely, while production facilities are operating at maximum load. During a peak, inflation often picks up. Market saturation increases competition, which leads to falling profit margins and longer payback periods for innovations. In the economy there is a need for long-term lending. Only a new technological order can sharply turn the situation in the opposite direction.
Gradually, the possibilities of the manufacturing sector are declining. There is a decrease in investment and business activity. This leads to an increase in unemployment and a decrease in capacity utilization. Gradually, the economy begins to approach a state of depression again. The phases of the economic cycle are repeated again. And so it continues throughout the development of civilization.
Obvious reasons for cyclicity
The national economy is the totality of resources that ensures growing consumption. During its heyday or peak, it is able to fully meet the needs of its population. During depression, most people fall below the poverty line. During the peak, investor returns are at their highest. This leads to the concentration of capital in the economy, which gradually reduces the rate of profit. Many investors are starting to leave the country because they do not want to receive less income than before. This provokes the beginning of a recession. A decrease in investment volumes leads to the curtailment of production activities, the solvency of the population is falling. At the same time, the crisis in one industry is gradually spreading to the entire economy as a whole.
The concept of structure in the economy
In addition to a decrease in investment volumes due to a fall in the rate of return, the cause of crises is the obsolescence of technologies. And STP often stimulates peaking. The term "technological order" is an analogue of the concept of "wave of innovation". The latter is more often used by foreign scientists. It was first proposed in the work "Theoretical and applied aspects of the management of scientific and technological progress" by D. S. Lvov and S. Yu. Glazyev, published in 1986.
The way of life, according to scientists, is a set of existing breakthrough inventions that provide a qualitative leap in the development of the productive forces of society. The economic development of the country is directly related to its perception of innovations in scientific and technical progress. The theory of technological patterns made it possible to rethink Nikolai Kondratiev's concept of cyclicality.
Waves of innovation
STP and economic growth are closely linked. Waves of technology are creating entirely new sectors and opportunities for investment and growth. Their development, in turn, stimulates the entire economy as a whole. Since the Industrial Revolution, the technological order has changed five times. The opinion of scientists about the main breakthrough technologies is somewhat different. Consider each of the ways in the interpretation of foreign scientists.
Connection of waves and phases
Economic growth is closely linked to changes in technological structures. The more time passes after the Industrial Revolution, the faster the scientific and technological progress. Wavelengths of innovation are getting shorter. The first lasted 60 years, while the fourth lasted only 40. This reflects the growing potential for innovation and the ability of economic systems to derive commercial benefits from technological innovation. Innovations are no longer considered the results of individual efforts, but are organized joint actions. The phase of the economic cycle has a significant impact on the development and implementation of technologies. He, in turn, is a factor providing a way out of the crisis. It is difficult to predict which invention will provide the next wave of economic development. Some of the candidates are energy-saving technologies and robotics.
The concept of long waves by Nikolai Kondratiev
The scheme of technological structures approximately coincides with the large cycles noted by the Russian scientist. Nikolai Kondratiev was the first economist whose work on this topic received international recognition. Before him, two Danish scientists Jacob van Gelderen and Samuel de Wolff noted the existence of fifty or sixty year cycles. But their work has only recently been translated into other languages. In 1939, Joseph Schumpeter suggested naming long waves after Kondratiev. The theory was further developed within the framework of the Marxist school.
Kondratiev identified three phases of the cycle: expansion, stagnation and recession. Although generally accepted is the division into four periods with a turning point between the first and second. Kondratiev identified two waves in the 19th century. The long cycle affects all sectors of the economy. The scientist himself focused his research on prices and interest rates. With the help of these characteristics, he described the rise and fall in the economy. A revival of business activity is characterized by an increase in prices and a decrease in interest rates, while a recession is the opposite.
Big Loops Explanations
Many scientists, including Kondratiev himself, have tried to figure out why long waves arise. To date, there are four main explanations:
The next technology wave
The global financial crisis of 2008 made us think about the need for dramatic changes in the economy. Have existing technologies exhausted their growth potential? James Moody predicts that new innovations should be directed towards increasing resource efficiency. The sixth technological order, according to the scientist, will be associated with huge changes in the structure of the market and social institutions.
The basis of human survival is the protection of the environment. The sixth technological order does not involve harvesting from numerous resources, but managing the latter to achieve the greatest output with the least use.
Technological structure of Russia
The main task of the Russian Federation today is the transition to a new wave of innovations. If the country fails to do this, then it will only have the role of a raw materials appendage to the developed countries. Modern technological structures are based on energy saving, the use of nanoelectronics, and artificial intelligence. The resources for the growth of existing production have already been almost completely exhausted, therefore, not a gradual modernization, but its complete reorientation is needed. Russia needs not catching up, but advancing development.
Bulletin of the Stavropol State University
SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL WAY AND PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIA (BRIEF REVIEW)
V. M. Averbukh
THE SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL SETUP AND PERSPECTIVES OF RUSSIA (ABSTRACT)
The article describes the fragments of the economy and science condition in Russia, technological setups, long-range forecasts of innovational technologies for 2030. The aim is to enter the 6th technological setup in accordance with the materials of the Russian Academy of Science of2008 .
Key words: economy, export, technological setup, long-range forecast, the forecast period -2030.
The article considers: fragments of the state of the economy and science in Russia; technological structures; long-term forecasts of innovative technologies for 2030; the goal is to enter the sixth technological order, based on the materials of the 2008 session of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Key words: economy, export, technological structure, long-term forecast, forecasting period 2030.
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The works of the outstanding domestic economist N. D. Kondratiev formulated the concept of cyclicity in the economy. This theory was further developed in the works of academicians D. S. Lvov and S. Yu. Glazyev under the modern name "Technological way". Technological order (wave) - a set of technologies characteristic of a certain level of development of production; in connection with scientific and technological progress, there is a transition from lower ways to higher, progressive ones.
Currently, there are six technological modes (Fig. 1). The world is moving towards the sixth technological mode, is approaching it, is working on it. Russia is today mainly in the third, fourth and early stages of the fifth technological order. The latter include mainly enterprises of the high-tech military-industrial complex.
The third technological order - (1880-1940) is based on the use of electrical energy in industrial production, the development of heavy engineering and the electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communication, telegraph, automobiles were introduced. There were large firms, cartels, syndicates, trusts. The market was dominated by monopolies. The concentration of banking and financial capital began.
The fourth mode (1930-1990) is based on the further development of energy using oil and oil products, gas, communications, and new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors, aircraft, various types of weapons, consumer goods. The emergence and spread of computers software products for them, radar. The atom is used for military and then for peaceful purposes. Organized mass production based on conveyor technology. The market is dominated by oligopolistic competition. Transnational and multinational companies appeared, which made direct investments in the markets of various countries.
The fifth order (1985-2035) is based on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large
and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close cooperation in the field of technology, product quality control, innovation planning.
The sixth technological order will be characterized by the development of robotics, biotechnologies based on the achievements of molecular biology and genetic engineering, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence systems, global information networks, integrated high-speed transport systems. Within the framework of the sixth technological order, flexible automation of production, space technologies, the production of structural materials with predetermined properties, the nuclear industry, air transportation will be further developed, nuclear energy will grow, natural gas consumption will be supplemented by the expansion of the use of hydrogen as an environmentally friendly energy carrier, the application of renewable energy sources.
Rhythm snny tshyulogashsky * way" and generations of tinish
Figure 1. Technological modes
Thus, our country is faced with the most important and most difficult task - to make the transition to the sixth order (not having fully mastered the previous fifth) and to catch up with the advanced countries in this direction. This stage has already begun and will last 50-60 years. During this time, the world will move further to the seventh or even the eighth technological stage. And we need to take this into account in our long-term forecasts.
The future is laid in the past and present. Below are fragments of the current state of the economy and scientific research in Russia.
The current standard of living of the majority of the population of the Russian Federation is supported by exports, whose share in world GDP is less than 2%. Main export items: gas and oil (70%), primary (not processed) metals (15%), round (not processed) timber (10%). Everything else, including equipment, technology, weapons - less than 5%. The share of Russia in the world markets of high technologies barely reaches 0.2-0.3%.
A breakthrough is possible only through the creation of new science-intensive technologies, primarily for export. But it is known that spending on scientific research in the Russian Federation over the previous 18 years has decreased by more than five times and has approached the level of developing countries. Russia today spends seven times less on science than Japan, and 20 times less than the United States. The number of researchers has more than halved; many now work abroad. The number of domestic publications is somewhat reduced, while, for example, in India and Brazil it is increasing sharply. Thus, in general, in terms of the level of development of high technologies, the country rolled back, according to the most conservative estimates, by 10-15 years ago, and in some areas even by 20.
It is possible to make a breakthrough in the development of the latest, competitive technologies by carrying out long-term forecasting and long-term planning of scientific research and subsequent production of the latest technologies and products.
Figure 2. The share of manufacturers of high-tech products in the world (for work 5)
The President of the Russian Federation D. A. Medvedev gave impetus to intensify forecasting developments by instructing the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008 to urgently develop scientific and technical forecasts for the country's development for the long term - until 2030 in order to bring the country's economy out of that deeply unsatisfactory state of almost the entire situation affairs in the country: science, technology, economics. And most importantly - to enter the international market with high-tech developments.
In 2008, at the general meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences entitled "Scientific and technical forecast is the most important element of the development strategy of Russia", in his opening speech, the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Academician Yu. .» .
There are two reasons for activating scientific forecasting.
Academician A. Dynkin named the external cause. According to him, more than 70 countries are engaged in scientific and technical forecasting, including even Malaysia (28 million inhabitants, per capita income of 14 thousand dollars). In these countries, market opportunities for inventions and technologies are being studied (i.e., they are predicting application), and obstacles to moving the development into practice are identified. Our domestic business environment is openly hostile to innovation. Russia has chosen the wrong path - to acquire high technologies abroad, reducing investments in its own science to zero. According to academician A.D. Nekipelov, the internal reason is the need to move away from the fuel and raw material scenario of the country's development at an increasing pace, in connection with which the problem of technological forecasting has come to the fore.
At the session, 9 reports and 8 speeches were made on the subject under consideration. The adopted Decree of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences states: “... to consider work in the field of scientific and technical progress as one of the priority areas of activity of the Russian Academy of Sciences; approve the initiative of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the establishment of the Interdepartmental Coordination Council
RAS on socio-economic and scientific-technological forecasting; will apply to the Government of the Russian Federation with a proposal to create a unified system of state forecasting in order to determine on a scientific basis the priorities of the country's development.
The Coordinating Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences for Forecasting was created under the leadership of Vice-President A.D. Nekipelov. The following 15 thematic sections have been formed:
1. Theories, methods and organizations of forecasting. 2. Simulation and information support. 3. Forecasting economic dynamics. 4. Forecasting the development of science, education and innovation. 5. Forecasting the development of nanotechnologies and new materials. 6. Forecasting biology and medical technology. 7. Forecasting information and communication technologies. 8. AIC forecasting. 9. Forecasting social and demographic development. 10. Forecasting nature management and ecology. 11. Forecasting the energy complex. 12. Forecasting engineering, defense industry and transport. 13. Forecasting socio-political processes and institutions. 14. Forecasting spatial development. 15. Forecasting the development of the world economy and international relations.
The Academy created the document "Forecast - 2030". On its basis, President of the Russian Federation D. A. Medvedev announced the main vectors of the country's economic modernization for 20 years: 1) Leadership in the efficiency of production, transportation and use of energy. New types of fuel; 2) Development of nuclear technologies; 3) Improvement of information and global networks. supercomputers; 4) Space research will bring real benefits in all areas of activity of our citizens from travel to agriculture and industry; 5) A significant breakthrough in medical technology, diagnostics and medicines. Naturally - armament and development of agriculture.
Bulletin of the Stavropol State University [¡vdN
The main task is competitiveness and access to the international market in all directions, to increase the efficiency of products in the domestic market. Possibly mixed forecasts.
According to Yu. S. Osipov, “the forecast itself should be developed by the scientific community under the auspices of the state ... it is necessary to create single system state forecasting, with the help of which the authorities could scientifically determine priorities strategic development countries".
In his speech in 2009, D. A. Medvedev said: “The transition of the country to a higher level of civilization is possible. And it will be carried out by non-violent methods. Not coercion, but persuasion. Not by suppression, but by the disclosure of the creative potential of each individual. Not intimidation, but interest. Not by confrontation, but by the convergence of the interests of the individual, society and the state ... intellectual resources, a "smart" economy that creates unique knowledge, the export of the latest technologies and products of innovative activity.
In our opinion, the interaction between long-term forecasting, business, regions, the state and developers (inventors) should be fixed by law, with the definition of the degree and form of participation, responsibility, etc. e. The end result should be the introduction of a product, technology to a foreign market. On the need for adoption legislative framework in the field of innovative development and forecasting was discussed at a meeting of the Interdepartmental Group within the framework of the IV National Congress “Priorities for Economic Development. Modernization and technological development of the Russian economy” (Moscow, October 8, 2009) .
D. A. Medvedev also spoke about political, economic and social tasks. He believes that “the inventor, innovator, scientist, teacher, entrepreneur will become the most respected people in society. Everyone will receive
necessary for fruitful activity. This program includes attracting foreign specialists, and benefits for researchers, and legislative and state support.”
Further, D. A. Medvedev said: “We will increase the efficiency social sphere in all areas, paying increased attention to the tasks of material and medical support for veterans and pensioners. Actually, this is the main goal of long-term forecasting in order to create technologies of the sixth technological order.
Successful implementation of scientific and technical forecasts will make it possible to competently develop and then implement social forecasts for the country's development. After all, this is the main task of the country's development.
According to B. N. Kuzyka, a number of technologies of the sixth order already have a certain reserve. In Russia, as of 2008, there are breakthrough research and development in the field of critical technologies in almost all areas of the sixth technological mode (Fig. 3) .
Thus, the research carried out in key areas of the sixth technological mode suggests that we have a chance. It is necessary to focus human, financial and organizational resources precisely on these priorities in order not to waste energy on developing those areas in which other countries have already gone too far relative to our level, and we will have to borrow world achievements.
But in order to successfully fulfill the forecasts and enter the sixth technological order, it is necessary, in our opinion, to fix the procedure for interaction between the Russian Academy of Sciences and business at the government level. RAS scientists determine the vectors (long-term forecasting), and corporations, the business community substantiate the general goal of research in the direction, draw up the terms of reference for the development of research, regulatory and organizational forecasts, up to industrial implementation products indicating
1 technologies for the production of software 1 bioinformation technologies 1 technologies for creating intelligent navigation and control systems 1 technologies for processing, storing, transmitting and protecting information 1 technologies for distributed computing and systems 1 technologies for creating an electronic component base Rational environmental management 1 technologies for monitoring and forecasting the state of the atmosphere and hydrosphere 1 technologies for assessing resources and predicting the state of the lithosphere and biosphere > technologies for reducing the risk and mitigating the consequences of natural and man-made disasters > technologies for the processing and disposal of man-made formations and wastes > technologies for environmentally safe development of deposits and mining
Industry of nanosystems and materials 1 technologies for creating biocompatible materials 1 technologies for creating membranes and catalytic systems 1 technologies for creating and processing polymers and elastomers 1 technologies for creating and processing crystalline materials 1 technologies for creating and processing composite and ceramic materials 1 nanotechnologies and nanomaterials 1 technologies for mechatronics and contemplation of microsystem technology
Energy and energy saving 1 technologies of nuclear energy, nuclear fuel cycle, safe management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel > hydrogen energy technologies 1 technologies for creating energy-saving systems for the transportation, distribution and consumption of heat and electricity > technologies of new and renewable energy sources energy from organic raw materials
Living systems 1 bioengineering technologies 1 biocatalytic, biosynthetic and biosensor technologies 1 biomedical and veterinary technologies for life support and protection of humans and animals 1 genomic and post-genomic technologies for drug development 1 technologies for environmentally friendly resource-saving production and processing of agricultural raw materials and food 1 cellular technologies
Transportation and aerospace technologies > technologies for creating new generations of rocket and space, aviation and marine equipment > technologies for creating and controlling new types of transport systems 1 technologies for creating energy-efficient engines and propulsion systems for transport systems
The level of Russian developments corresponds to the world, and in some areas Russia is in the lead
Russian developments as a whole correspond to the world level * Russian developments as a whole are inferior to the world level and only in certain areas the level is comparable
Figure 3. The status of basic research and development in Russia in 2008 (based on work 5)
Bulletin of the Stavropol State University [¡vdN
possible deadlines for the implementation of individual stages. Accordingly, firms should in their financial plans lay on forecasting, the development of scientific research up to 3-5% of the budget, possibly together with the state. And all this work should be under the control of the forecasting sections of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Government of Russia. It's not business enforcement, but rules, just like the Rules traffic mandatory for all participants. And for violation (non-allocation of appropriate funds, failure to meet deadlines, etc.), penalties should be applied. But there should also be incentives.
It should not be forgotten that such a large-scale forecasting - from the vectors of the country's development to specific technologies and their parameters, requires an effective organization of information support for forecasting activities.
Moreover, when carrying out scientific and technical forecasting, one of the basic principles of forecasting should be observed - the relationship between scientific, technical and social forecasts.
However, in order to avoid distortions - forgetting the internal development of elements 4 and 5 of technological modes, it is necessary to
make forecasts in these areas as well.
Society, especially business society, must realize that without scientific forecasting, the further development of our country is simply not possible. And for successful forecasting, it is necessary to train forecasters. Since forecasting is also supposed to be carried out for the development of regions, federal universities simply have to create departments of futurology and train forecasters in technical, sociological and other areas, depending on the economy of the region. And in the management structure of regions, cities, there should be prognostic units. The issues of scientific forecasting in our country should be addressed at the state level by our entire community.
In conclusion, it should be noted that today's schoolchildren will have to predict, create new technologies, use them in the sixth technological mode, therefore, without reorienting the entire education system to a new level of technological life in everyday life, without a general rise in the cultural level of all strata of our society, technological progress will not will give the expected effect.
LITERATURE
1. Averbukh V. M. An integrated approach to forecasting in a research and production association // All-Union scientific and practical conference“Efficiency of associations and improvement of cost accounting. Plenary session of the section Problems of improving cost accounting in associations”: abstracts. - L., 1979. - S. 138-139.
2. Actual problems of innovative development. Selection of innovation priorities: Proceedings of the meeting of the Interdepartmental working group in the framework of the IV National Congress "Priorities for Economic Development, Modernization and Technological Development of the Russian Economy" (Moscow, October 8, 2009): inform. bulletin. Issue. 11. - M., 2010. - S. 7-21.
3. Glazyev S. Yu. Choice of the future. - M.: Algorithm, 2005.
4. N. D. Kondratiev, Large cycles of conjuncture and the theory of foresight: selected works. - M.: Economics, 2002.
5. Kuzyk B. N. Innovative development of Russia: scenario approach. (Posted by kig at Jan 5, 2910 - 13:56).
6. Lvov D.S. Effectiveness of management of technical development. M.: Economics, 1990.
7. Scientific session General Assembly Russian Academy of Sciences "Scientific and technological forecast - the most important element of the development strategy of Russia" // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. - 2009. - T. 79. - No. 3. - S. 195-261
8. Forecast of scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the long term
perspective (until 2030) // Conceptual approaches, directions, forecast estimates and implementation conditions. - M.: RAN, 2008.
Averbukh Viktor Mikhailovich, GOU VPO
"Stavropol State University", Doctor of Technical Sciences, Senior Researcher
employee; head of the sector of scientific and technical information of the research department of SSU. Sphere of scientific interests - scientific and technical forecasting, scientific and technical information, history of science. [email protected]
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