Why do some professions disappear and others appear. Outdated professions. The oldest professions that have disappeared

Not only the crisis and inflation put in place the changes taking place in the labor market, but also the objective course of progress. According to the Australian Assistance Committee economic development, up to 40% of professions will disappear in 15 years. In the West, various job positions are expected to disappear. How is the situation in Russia?

1. Secretary

Secretary functions are already successfully replacing organizational programs, intelligent online calendars and applications that send reminders at a specified time. System development electronic document management and digital signatures also contribute to reducing the need for a number of specialists.

“We studied the change in the structure of the job market in the period 2014-2016, analyzed 29 professional areas. So in the field of administrative personnel, office work, secretaries and call-center employees are stagnating. The least demand is for archivists - 56%, evening secretaries - 52%, the demand for secretaries and administrators has fallen by 41%,” comments Alexandra Pashkova, CourseBurg Russia specialist.

“Some executives have long abandoned the services of personal assistants. While working in a large retail company, I was initially surprised that all top managers have one secretary per floor. But then it became clear that the general secretary can solve those issues that require personal participation and ingenuity. At the same time, all top managers appointed meetings themselves by mail, provided that this did not require the coordination of calendars for a long time. To coordinate calendars, taking into account the load and shifts, a virtual automated assistant is useful. In the future, the professions of a personal assistant and secretary will be filled with other content or combined with the work of a business analyst, project coordinator, content manager, researcher. This is already being observed, just not all secretaries are aware of this, and some are resisting the emergence of new responsibilities. Although this is exactly what you should not do, ”Anna Burova, head of HR consulting at ManpowerGroup Russia & CIS, agrees.

2. Forecaster

Online weather forecast, without human intervention, is already a reality. It is possible that we will soon know about the profession of a weather forecaster only from news releases, where at the end of the program they elegantly read weather reports for the coming days in different parts of the country - again, prepared by special programs.

“According to the latest Yandex research, it is quite realistic that weather forecasters may disappear in Russia in the coming years, since the neural network already makes weather forecasts more accurately than humans,” comments Ivan Mayak, co-founder of Lighthouse Estate.

There will also be fewer HR specialists operating within the framework of traditional ideas about the profession, market experts are sure. The search, evaluation and hiring of personnel are outdated qualifications for the labor market, successfully automated by special programs.

“On the one hand, HR-s do not agree with the idea that their profession will disappear, at the same time they enthusiastically talk about how they have automated the processes of selection, evaluation and even development of personnel. Automation - it's not done for the convenience of HR, it's done to save resources. Therefore, if HR in a company does not make it difficult to find “human” work - mentoring, training, discussion, conversations, and other types of communication that require personal inclusion, then HR runs the risk of being left without a job sooner or later,” Anna Burova is sure.

4. Copywriter

Programs connected to databases generate texts adapted to users of sites and online stores - a given volume, uniqueness, content, and even style. Of course, their level of elaboration of texts is still far from perfect, but the revolution in the world of letters and numbers, according to experts, is not far off.

“With the development of the Internet, a copywriting boom began in the world. Almost every company creates a website to promote goods and services, which needs to be filled with unique content and updated regularly. Meanwhile, even today there are computer programs connected to huge databases with articles of various genres, which are able to automatically generate text according to specified parameters. Of course, materials created by robots are unlikely to fall into the category of literary masterpieces, but they will be able to compose an average-quality text on a given topic,” says Svetlana Beloded, head of the QBF HR department.

5. Tourism specialists: visa processing, guides, tour guides

The tourism industry is literally in turmoil right now. More and more people are turning towards online, where they can book tickets and hotels, issue visa documents, and pay for selected services. The fact that travel agents will remain in the elite segment, where an individual approach, a unique route and the issue of free time to prepare for the trip is important, is a reality.

Video tours appear on museum websites, there are many interactive maps of any cities in the network and applications, equipped with online tours of sights, museums, and other iconic places.

“People began to travel on their own, consulates switched to electronic questionnaires and document management in particular, therefore, the need for visa specialists decreased by 67%, 60% less need for guides and guides, 53% - for the purchase of air tickets, 50-52% - control tourism business and organization of tourism products. And the farther, the easier it will be to organize trips yourself, without resorting to the help of travel agencies and buying vouchers. The need for specialists will decrease with the development of automated services,” emphasizes Alexandra Pashkova.

“According to Skolkovo specialists, by 2020 the number of guides will be significantly reduced. They will be replaced by audio guides. The clear voice of the audio recording will tell about each museum exhibit, repeat the necessary facts if necessary, and the musical accompaniment will help you immerse yourself in a unique atmosphere. In addition, informational lectures can be easily recorded in different languages, thereby making domestic museums more accessible to people of all nationalities. Audio guides have their drawbacks: communication with a person is more pleasant than contact with headphones. Therefore, guides will not disappear completely, but they will no longer be invited to groups that are determined to get acquainted with the main masterpieces of the Hermitage in an hour,” continues Svetlana Beloded.

While there is a flourishing of ateliers in Russia that make clothes to individual measurements and competitive prices, the need for in-house workers in such workshops may noticeably decrease. But technology will go much further: 3D printing will eventually make it possible to produce clothes and shoes according to given parameters at home.

“The fashion industry is going through significant changes in the foreseeable future. In the next 10-15 years, clothing factories and clothing stores may become a thing of the past. To purchase clothes, it will be enough to go to the site of your favorite brand, download the cartridge from necessary material and a 3D drawing of the suit or dress you like. The pattern-recipe in the automated studio can be loaded into a special terminal and request your size. Similar developments already exist: designer Hong Chang created a collection of shoes for printing, and Iris Van Erpen actively uses 3D printing in her work on new products. Putting such projects on stream is a matter of time. Sewing ateliers, unlike the factories we are used to, may remain, but they will work only with very wealthy clients,” Svetlana Beloded comments.

7. Insurance agent

The development of technology and online services also has an impact on the insurance market. The demand for a number of specialists has decreased markedly.

“Demand for expert appraisers in the field of insurance decreased by 61%, real estate insurance by 54%, and liability insurance by 52%. Previously, there were many insurance agents, now insurance tasks are solved via the Internet,” comments Alexandra Pashkova.

8. Diagnostic doctor

And this profession is being replaced by technology. The production of microdiagnostic devices that measure individual human indicators at any convenient time, in any conditions is rapidly developing. The data obtained, if necessary, is transmitted to a specific doctor online.

“The equipment that allows diagnosing various diseases is becoming more and more complex and perfect, therefore, the army of doctors serving it is growing. If in 2000, according to Rosstat, there were 86.7 radiologists per 10,000 thousand people, then in 2014 it was already 93.3. However, the specialty of being a diagnostician will soon become obsolete. This is due to the development of microdiagnostic devices. It is assumed that they will appear in every home, as tonometers appeared in hypertensive patients and glucometers in people with diabetes. Patients will be able to self-diagnose and send device data to attending physicians in real time via the Internet, and specialists will only have to choose a treatment regimen based on them,” emphasizes Svetlana Beloded.

9. Working specialties: packer, elevator operator, loader

In matters of resource extraction, as well as the movement of bulky cargo, cars have long bypassed people. The same applies to all routine processes. In production, the need for loaders and packers will completely disappear in the very near future.

“Among working specialties, the demand for production machinists fell by 46%, 45% - for packers and elevator operators, 36% - for loaders. These specialties are replacing machines,” Alexandra Pashkova comments.

10. Watchman, security guard

Professions related to the observation of order are also a thing of the past. Development of video surveillance technologies, access systems through electronic keys, intercoms and fingerprint scanning or retinal scanning is particularly fast. In fact, even now the task of security guards is reduced to the formal recording of events, which is successfully performed by any video camera or electronic system programmed for security.

“Wachter is one of the most popular jobs for pensioners. The people who give out the keys and keep order day and night used to be in almost every institution. In the early 2000s, they were replaced by professional security guards, and at the dawn of the 2020s, the remaining watchmen may be forced out automated systems. Already, magnetically locked doors and systems capable of retinal and fingerprint recognition are increasingly being used to ensure security. They can distinguish company employees from strangers, register the time of arrival and departure of each employee, therefore, automated systems organically combine the security function with the control function,” confirms Svetlana Beloded.

Of course, the list of possible candidates for extinction is not limited to these 10 professions. According to various estimates, cashiers, accountants, realtors, bank employees and even teachers are at risk. If your profession falls into the possible “candidates for departure”, you should start preparing for changes in life in advance: form competitive advantages, retrain or focus on the elite segment.

“Disappearing professions arise where modern, first of all, information technologies create the possibility of performing operations and work in general without the participation of human resources, or radically changing the functionality of an employee. The introduction of advanced management technologies can lead to the disappearance of the middle manager,” concludes Professor high school corporate governance RANEPA Elena Yakhontova.

With the development of technological progress in many professions, the need has disappeared, because now they are replaced by automated devices and a variety of gadgets. But in the last century, these professions were very useful and in demand.

Bowling pin setter

Instead of machines, special people were used to set pins

The work was difficult, noisy and underpaid.

As a rule, little boys were hired for this work. The guys setting the pins in the bowling alley were replaced by machines

Alarm clock man

These people walked along a certain route, banging on the windows of their clients with a long stick, throwing stones and screaming at the top of their lungs until they were sure that they had woken up people who did not want to oversleep their work.

The alarm clock man is also no longer needed. Waking up on time is now helped by various gadgets

Nowadays, these people are called hooligans.

A computer

In Webster's 1828 English Dictionary, the word computer is defined as: "A person who makes calculations." Before it became a thing, it was a person, usually a young woman. As you may have guessed, they were engaged in various calculations and calculations, because someone had to do this work. Now this word has a completely different definition.

chimney sweep

Yes, chimney sweeps still exist, but only now it is more a whim of the rich, and earlier it was a necessity. By cleaning soot from chimneys, chimney sweeps saved people from a cold death. Fortunately, there are now more simple options home heating

Factory workers lecturer

Have you ever listened to music or an audio book while doing monotonous work? Factory workers hired live "lecturers" who read literature to them as they worked. Sometimes workers chipped in to hire this person

Currently, "lecturers" have been replaced by players, radios and other passive entertainment gadgets.

ice carver

Before the invention of the refrigerator, ice had to be collected in the winter to preserve food in order to use it in the summer. Ice was collected by special carvers

They carved blocks of ice from frozen lakes, risking death from hypothermia if they fell into the hole.

Nowadays, ice is not transferred from place to place, but special refrigeration equipment is used.

Enemy aircraft pre-radar listeners

Shortly after the invention of airplanes, armies around the world developed methods for detecting the sound of engines approaching from the horizon.

Before the invention of radar, people relied on workers' sensitive ears and acoustic mirrors. Hearing the approach of an enemy aircraft, these listeners sounded the alarm. Detection of enemy aircraft has become fully automated

Probably, professional students were very bored, and they could use the services of lecturers, but, unfortunately, this contradicted the peculiarities of their work.

Pied Piper

When Europe was suffering from massive rat infestations, this work was one of the most popular

Rats often carried diseases, and these people risked getting sick from bites, but their work was an important public service.

It was the best "rat trap" with guaranteed results, but at the same time it was also the most expensive.

Lantern lighter

Prior to the introduction of electric lamps, street lamps were lit by hand.

Special people walked the streets and their list of duties included lighting lanterns, extinguishing and refueling

Milkman

Without refrigeration, milk will spoil within one day. That's why a person was needed to make daily deliveries, right up to the advent of the refrigerator.

Milkmen were common in the cities, since the inhabitants of the countryside did not experience a shortage of milk. Despite the fact that this point is present in the article, in some places milkmen still continue to do their job, for example in India

log ferryer

Even before automobile and railways The best way to transport logs was river rafting. These people were in charge of this process.

People divided into groups and looked after problem areas in which logs could get stuck, forming some kind of dam

Noticing the emerging congestion, they had to eliminate it as quickly as possible before a major congestion formed.

In cases where they did not succeed, the workers used dynamite to eliminate major congestion

Working with dynamite, standing above the water on logs tied together, deaths on the job were commonplace for timber rafters, as they were often littered with logs or drowned in the water when they were under them. At the same time, their work was considered prestigious and highly respected.

switch operator

Today's millions of simultaneous phone calls are routed digitally

Not too long ago, all of these calls were handled manually by countless switchboard operators literally connecting wire to wire.

"Gandhi Dancers"

It sounds very exotic, but in fact, these people were engaged in heavy manual labor. "Gandhi dancers" is a slang term for railway workers who were engaged in laying, repairing and preventing railway tracks. "Gandhi" was the name of a company that made tools, and "dancers" they were nicknamed because of the characteristic movements that workers performed by hammering crutches into sleepers.

Resurrectionist

In the 19th century, doctors at universities and hospitals had to hire people to steal corpses from graves for research and experimentation. Often, students of medical universities themselves did this, since practical tasks were issued, but they had to find the material for execution on their own. So there was a special protection for graves called "Mortsafe"

Daguerreotypist

The daggerotype was the forerunner of photography, only in their case the final image was not on photographic paper, but on a polished silver-plated copper plate. Since the image was developed by mercury vapor, it was a very dangerous and very expensive pleasure. It is worth noting that at that time the pictures were quite High Quality, but, unfortunately, they could not be copied

After 10-15 years artificial intelligence will put millions of people out of work, experts warn

From the point of view of the employer, computers are more profitable than people: they are cheaper and work more efficiently, photo: Robohunter
Computers are already doing some tasks much better than humans today. Experts say that in just 10-15 years, artificial intelligence will force people out of many professions and leave millions of people unemployed.

What professions are under the threat of extinction, whether the power of computers is inevitable and how it threatens humanity, the "Country" understood.

Robot vs Human

The monopolization by artificial intelligence (AI) (scientifically correct name is "deep neural networks") of all spheres of human life is no longer a futurological idea, but economic calculations. Leading scientific research warns that the world will face appalling levels of unemployment in the coming decades. This can provoke riots, exacerbate social inequality, poverty and other social problems.

Thus, according to Oxford University, over the next 20 years in the United States every second workplace will be automated – 47% of workers will replace machines. In China - 77%.

The Youth Advocacy Group of Australia (FYA) warns that around 70% of young people in Australia are now in jobs where the impact of automation will be "radical". That is, in fact, in twenty years, their knowledge and professional skills will no longer be needed by anyone - computers will perform the same functions for them. The only difference is that the employer will not have to pay salaries to cars, and from it - taxes to the state.

From the point of view of the employer, a robot is more profitable than a person: it does everything faster and cheaper. Moreover, modern AI also knows how to learn. Moreover, if a person can take years to master a new skill, a computer spends seconds on it. Man cannot compete.

“We are approaching the time when machines will surpass humans in almost every field,” said a professor of computational engineering, director of the Institute information technologies Moshe Vardi. “I believe that society needs to face this problem before it rises to its full height. If machines are capable of doing almost everything that humans can do, what will they be left to do?"

Vardy predicts that in 30 years, robots will be able to do almost everything that humans can do. And this will lead to the fact that more than 50% of the inhabitants of the planet will become unemployed, and society will plunge into total procrastination.

According to the International Federation of Robotics, it is the leader in automation in South Korea, where there are 531 robots per 10,000 workers. China is still lagging behind: there are only 49 robots by 10 thousand, but the country ranks first in terms of the rate of increase in robotics units.

Ukraine, however, will not be captured by the automation trend as quickly as the West, experts say, because of relatively cheap labor. In general, in relation to Europe, Ukraine will begin to feel the invasion of computers with a delay of about 10 years. Experts predict that the higher the average salary in Ukraine becomes, the more often employers will give preference to robots over people.

Experts reassure: automation is a historically natural process, and humanity has experienced something similar before. In the 18-19 centuries, with the beginning of the industrial revolution, for example, cars first ousted horses from the sphere of transport, but now they can also replace people. ATMs, self-service centers, and more recently, online banking have already replaced a whole army of bank employees. And you need to take it easy.

"There was once such a profession - people who were calculators who counted on arithmometers. Some scientists believe that artificial intelligence appeared when people invented a calculator that could solve the same mathematical problems much faster and better than a person," says Artem Chernodub, Ph.D., AI researcher at Clikque Technology.

The strength of neural networks is that their teacher is the boundless Internet space. Robots can already do more than what they were originally programmed to do.

"Recently, a neural system has developed its own encryption system and taught this system to another neural network. Today, AI already works in such a way that even the architect of this network does not understand how it does it. It changes itself from the inside. It works on the principle of the human brain - therefore it and is called neural," says Boris Tizenhausen, an expert in reputation management.

It was Deep Learning ("Deep Learning" - algorithms that allow AI to self-learn and improve itself without human intervention - Ed.) Reduced the cost of computing, and therefore the cost of the computers themselves. This is now leading to mass automation of professions.

"One gigaflops (a measure of computer performance - the number of mathematical operations that a computing system performs per second, Ed. Note) - now costs about 6 cents, in 2008 it cost about 50 dollars, and in 1997 - about 40 thousand dollars, - leads example Artem Chernodub - Computers have become more powerful and, accordingly, cheaper. A modern mobile phone is more powerful than the most advanced computer was 10 years ago, and it is now available to most people, while a computer 30 years ago was a luxury. Today you can automatically train deep neural networks on large amounts of data, even just 1 terabyte of images, and get from them behavior that is similar to human behavior, and sometimes exceeds its capabilities. Even 10 years ago, this seemed fantastic."

The possibilities of neural networks are really impressive. Their influence is especially noticeable in the direction of chatbots. Take, for example, the Luka startup, which generates dialogues with the characters of various works: after the death of the singer Prince, they created a chat with the musician after analyzing interviews with him in public sources.

Two designs for the same item. The left one is human. The right one is suggested by the computer (Within Enhance program). The most incredible thing is that the design of the computer is more natural and pleasing to the eye. Although AI did not rely on personal experience He just wanted to be as efficient as possible.

Another impressive example is when the artificial intelligence AlphaGo, created by a division of Google, beat the European champion in Go checkers. Go surpasses even chess in complexity, with millions of unpredictable moves.

“Google trained the neural network in the following way: they loaded into it the data of all the games that it was possible to find, and the system gave priority to those moves thanks to which the computer won, and eventually learned to play at the level of an average player,” says Boris Tizenhausen. “Then Google forced this AI to play with another AI. They made millions of moves per second, and in the end, no one won. But playing with each other, they improved. In the end, AlphaGo beat the European Go drafts champion with a score of 5: 0. The champion is upset.

Martin Ford, author of Rise of the Robots, is convinced that automation is unstoppable. "It's part of capitalism - the constant drive to increase productivity," he says. Robotization of production benefits almost everyone except workers without advanced degrees, and it is they who will be most affected by mass robotization.

Dying professions

According to experts, almost any profession that is associated with a repeatable algorithm of actions is under the threat of extinction today. Roughly speaking, if you do the same routine work every day from morning to evening, associated with the constant collection, processing and analysis of data, it makes sense to think about changing your profession.

Some positions will disappear altogether, while others will be forced to modernize to meet the new realities of the technological world. "Strana", together with experts, compiled a list of 25 professions that are at risk.

1. Drivers

The development of AI will inevitably affect taxi drivers, and indeed all carriers. In the United States, it is predicted that in 15 years all transport will become automated. self-propelled vehicles replace taxi drivers and public transport, excavator operators, truckers, drivers.

Tesla and Google have been testing self-driving cars in the US for a year now. In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, as well as in Singapore, unmanned vehicles have already begun to be used as taxis. And the Russian Federation and Finland are even negotiating the creation of an infrastructure for unmanned communication between the countries.

By 2025, American automakers plan to mass-produce unmanned vehicles for a wide range of customers. They will not have a steering wheel or pedals. What for?

intellectual transport systems(ITS) will help avoid accidents: cars will read information from each other, know about oncoming traffic, and change the trajectory and speed of movement depending on this data. Even a traffic light will not be needed - the cars themselves will see that another car crosses the road and avoid collisions.

Flying car design project. Photo: 3DNews

The only thing hindering the ubiquitous distribution of cars on autopilot so far is the poor condition of the roads. But this obstacle is also temporary. It is possible that soon there will be no need for roads for cars - they will fly through the air. Terrafugia has been working on such a flying car since 2013, now it is being tested. The flight in it will also be controlled by computer system– the user only needs to specify the destination.

2. Conductors and controllers

Following the drivers, the conductors will also disappear. In some cities, trains already run on their own, and the fare in them from bank cards is read automatically using phones.

3. Working conveyors

Robots are crowding out manual labor in production. So, Adidas is building a fully automated factory in Germany, where everything from designing clothes to tailoring is done by robots. The production process for a pair of sneakers from start to finish takes about five hours. By comparison, in the current Adidas supply chain in Asia, a similar process could take several weeks. Robots will also be able to quickly create custom-made shoes for a specific client - a significant competitive advantage.

4. Guards

The sphere of security services is also computerized. Concierges, security guards, watchmen will be replaced by person identification systems, which, due to the increased terrorist threats, are already being introduced everywhere at points of large crowds of people. This is convenient and effective: the computer recognizes a person's face and immediately determines whether he has a criminal record, is potentially dangerous or not, or has been seen in contact with criminals. By the way, in this regard, AI will significantly complicate the work of burglars: the computer will instantly determine whether a neighbor or an outsider has entered the entrance.

“Now in Britain, the face recognition system in the subway also connects to a person’s social media accounts, determines whether he is a member of terrorist groups – and if several suspicious people enter the subway at the same time, the system immediately sends a signal to the police,” Boris gives an example Tizenhausen.

5. Salesmen and cashiers

In Seattle, Amazon opened the world's first store without cashiers, sellers and queues. Scanning devices automatically pierce the goods at the exit and withdraw money from the account. This is a real revolution in shopping.

It is based on Just Walk Out technology. It automatically detects when products are removed from the shelves and returned to their place, and forms a virtual shopping cart. On its basis, immediately after the buyer left the store, he receives an invoice.

"All mass professions - such as cashiers, salespeople, resellers, merchandisers, warehouse workers, even waiters - can be automated, which means they will be automated. Go to McDonald's near the Louvre in Paris - there are very few people working there. Because social standards too high, and it is expensive to hire a person to work even at McDonald's, because he has to pay a minimum of 1600 euros. Therefore, everything is robotized," says Chernodub.

6. Consultants

Today, in the virtual world, they are successfully replaced by chatbots. They provide online shopping advice and help customers solve product problems. Experts do not rule out that special robots will soon appear in stores that will present company products, greet visitors, tell them about the characteristics of the product, showing its images on the screen. By facial expressions and body language, robots will recognize human emotions and respond appropriately to them.

7. Accountants

With the introduction of electronic document management, the need for a huge layer of people who were engaged in paperwork, transferring documents from place to place and entering data into databases, disappears. In fact, any person himself will be able to submit declarations, draw up basic documents for opening his own enterprise, for example. A few years ago, firms hired an accountant specifically for this.

8. Finance staff

Here we are talking not only about the banal rearrangement of pieces of paper. Software effectively replaces brokers and traders.

Thus, since 2000, the number of financial employees on Wall Street has decreased by about one-third. Instead, the computer conducts hundreds of thousands of transactions, within a fraction of a second, makes a decision on the purchase and sale based on data that is automatically collected on the market and exchange services. During this time, a person will only have time to sip coffee.

"Already now, on the American stock exchange, 40% of operations for making decisions on buying or selling shares are made by AI. Traders have many special programs that determine trends, analyze quotes on several exchanges at once and build mathematical model how they will move on. A person is not capable of this,” says Boris Tizenhausen.

9. Translators

In fact, each of us unwittingly contributes to the extinction of this profession: every time you enter text into an online translator, you teach it. If you indicate that a word in a sentence is translated incorrectly, the computer remembers it. With each such correction, he learns, and machine translation becomes more and more perfect. Google began using neural networks for translation at the end of 2016 - the number of errors in translations of texts decreased by 60%.

Now the search giants "Yandex" and Google are testing neural systems with in-depth morphological analysis, which take a radically new approach to the translation of texts. Here's an example: a "translator" was taught to translate from Japanese to English and from Korean to English. Suddenly it turned out that the AI ​​was able to translate directly from Japanese to Korean, although it had not been taught this. The neural network created own algorithm translation, in which the intermediary language (English) was not needed.

Experts assure: over time, the vocabulary of a smartphone will equal that of a human. AI will even be able to create its own language. Mankind will forget what language barriers are: you will no longer need to spend years studying a foreign language - your smartphone will easily and competently provide simultaneous translation into any language on the planet.

10. Call center operators

Many companies have already replaced call center operators with automated programs that respond to customer complaints and offer them appropriate solutions. If the robot cannot cope with the problem itself, it automatically switches the subscriber to a "live" employee.

11. Programmers and web designers

In the near future, specialties that are now considered intellectual will be recognized as “workers”: programming, web design, 3D design. All this for a person today can easily be done by a machine.

For example, in order to design and manufacture a dental prosthesis, now a dentist must study for many years and obtain the appropriate qualifications, and the manufacture of such a prosthesis is very expensive. But already today, 3D printers can print dentures quickly and cheaply. And soon such specialists will not be needed.

As for the development of sites, according to experts, neural networks will soon learn to independently develop both the layout and design of sites, applications and programs. A person will simply set the parameters he needs.

"Even now, programmers write code differently than programmers did twenty years ago, when you had to remember all the commands by heart. Now the program itself offers the programmer the codes, and he chooses the ones he needs. This will continue to be automated. I think it will come to the point that a person will say: “Siri, write me such and such a program.” And Siri will write,” says Artem Chernodub.

12. Tour guides

AI and today easily determines where we are, gives historical reference, shows photos and virtual overviews of the area.

"The neural network can provide much more information and adapt to your interests. Targeted content is now coming out on top - Facebook works according to this algorithm, showing what you are interested in, Google, etc. The system understands what you are interested in and presents this is exactly in the vein in which it will be interesting for you to see it. It is clear that the "live" guides will remain, but they will become rather exotic," predicts Boris Tizenhausen.

13. Soldiers

Unmanned aircrafts, drones, security robots, monitoring systems already cope with many tasks much better than a man and even make decisions - to open fire or not, determining the enemy by the form and weapons. In the near future, according to experts, they will begin to replace living soldiers in ground missions as well. Soon, a person will remotely control tanks and aircraft without participating in battles.

Here it is impossible not to recall the autonomous tracked vehicle MAARS (Modular Advanced Armed Robotic System) - this is a robot. In his arsenal - a machine gun, as well as tear, fragmentation, high-explosive and smoke grenades. At the same time, MAARS is capable of not only killing, but also saving - clearing mines and pulling wounded people from the battlefield.

14. Builders

Construction is already partially automated. It is no longer necessary to build a house - it can be printed on a special construction 3D printer. A person chooses the house design they like, presses one button and a giant 3D printer prints the necessary blocks of concrete or other material.

WinSun in China has been developing such houses since 2014. And a Shanghai 3D house printer can create ten buildings from construction and industrial waste. The cost of production of one such house is not more than 5 thousand dollars.

15. Food producers

Per mass production food for humans, too, may soon come from 3D printers. By and large, any materials can be loaded into them, and why not do this with edible products. Natural Machines has already presented a similar development. The Foodini 3D printer allows you to load up to five different ingredients into it - you can set necessary program, and the dish will be quickly "printed". The result is still more like fast food, so the chefs of elite restaurants do not have to worry for now.

16. Travel agents

"Five years ago, there were travel agency offices on every corner, but now travel agents have virtually disappeared: they have been replaced by automatic platforms for booking and ordering tickets and places to stay. Those who remain on the market now are mainly focused on older people who do not trust electronic systems payment, but like their clients, they are already living out their lives,” says Boris Tizenhausen.

17. Astronauts

There is a place for robotics in space as well. The robots are already doing the menial work at the station. And the robot Robonaut2 (R2) from NASA and General Motors already plows the expanses of the earth's orbit. R2 is capable of operating both inside the ISS and in outer space. And he doesn't need a bulky suit to do it. Subsequently, it is planned that R2 will land on the moon - it is safe and not expensive.

18. Postmen and couriers

Delivery services are already gradually being taken over by drones and other similar devices. From the warehouse - directly to the house, conveniently and quickly.

Medicine, along with defense, are leaders in investment in the development of AI.

For example, the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York has implemented an automatic medical diagnostic system using the Watson supercomputer. He determines the diagnosis more accurately than doctors, and selects for each individual case best way treatment. The accuracy of Watson's diagnoses is due to the fact that he studied 600,000 medical studies (about 2 million pages of text).

Less complex diseases could soon be diagnosed using mobile phone. London-based startup Your.MD is improving an application for iOS and Android devices that can listen to a person's complaints in text or voice mode and determine his illness.

Robotic surgeons are already performing operations, sewing tissues at the micro level. Instead of stitching, doctors now use robotic staplers. There are also robotic anesthesiologists, since 2013 these systems have been allowed in the United States. Using them instead of the services of a professional anesthesiologist in the US market can save from $450 to $1850 per patient.

20. Pharmacists

Robots have already begun distributing medicines to patients. In San Francisco medical Center UCSF has set up experimental machines in two hospitals that, after receiving an electronic prescription from a doctor, weigh out the required doses of medicines, pack them into pills and give them to the patient.

Robots can replace nannies and nurses. The Japanese company NEC has developed the PaPeRo robot, which is able to entertain people and care for children and the mentally ill, helping them develop communication skills. The robot can communicate in a natural and pleasant voice, tell jokes, tell fortunes, make riddles, remind you to take medicines, and transmit voice messages from a person to other people whom PaPeRo recognizes by their faces.

22. Fitness trainers

This profession, according to experts, is waiting for a serious transformation. Training is already in many mobile applications a robot is leading - it's cheaper, and online broadcasting can cover an unlimited number of users.

23. Teachers

Now you can get a diploma of any university remotely. One teacher can teach not ten people, how many will fit in the class, but thousands of people at the same time. Experts believe that some kind of natural selection will begin in the industry, and really highly qualified minds who are really valued in a professional environment and have exceptional knowledge will remain teaching.

24. Journalists

Yes, the person who writes this article may also be out of work in a dozen or two years.

Electronic media employees are at risk. The Los Angeles Times, Associated Press, Forbes and other well-known media are already actively using robots today - they create operational financial reports, sports scores and provide weather information. Robots will collect information much faster than journalists, find out "who, what, when, where, how and why", even interview experts and draw up the final information material. Narrative Science predicts that in 15 years, 90% of news reports will be generated automatically.

Of course, we are not talking about columnism and the genre of feature reporting bordering on literature - here, in the subtlety of observations, the skill of conveying lively emotions and the beauty of style, a computer cannot surpass a person. At least for now.

25. Priests

Don't be quick to get angry. Of course, robots will not be able to fully replace the clergy, but partially AI is already being introduced into the church. You don't have to look far for examples: last year, a service for ordering prayers via the Internet was created in Lviv. In addition, for several years now, in order to put a note in the Wailing Wall, it is not at all necessary to go to Jerusalem - you just need to leave your message in the Internet representation of the shrine.

All hope for creativity

Experts insist: only professions associated with monotonous manual labor will disappear, in which there is no creative, intellectual, creative component, and most importantly, the need for purely human empathy.

"Indeed, some professions will disappear, but only those that can be fully automated. Human staff will still be in demand, for example, in the Love and Care industry - those areas where a machine simply cannot replace the component of human warmth and participation. This and the work that volunteers are doing today – caring for the elderly and sick, supporting the victims, helping people with disabilities,” says HR specialist Larisa Bruver.

Brower does not believe that in 15 years we will all be looking for new job. "The work landscape will certainly change, but it will shift towards the intellectual and creative work– in areas where even self-learning algorithms will either not be able to show the same performance, or robotization will be artificially limited due to the risk of losing control over the process,” the expert says.

The more complex and creative a profession is, the less it is threatened by automation. Artists, presenters, designers, actors, showmen, artists - they will remain in demand.

However, today robots have already learned how to create works of art. Andrey Karpaty from Stanford University has created a program into which you can load certain texts, say Shakespeare's sonnets, and it will itself begin to generate texts in the same style. By the same principle, neural networks can already draw pictures in the style of Van Gogh and Picasso, generate music a la Bach. There is even a music album "Neural Defense", the lyrics to which were written by a robot.

How valuable and qualitatively such "creativity" is another question. For those who are inclined towards primitive consumption, there will not be much difference between the work of Mozart and the robot. But can this be considered art?

"Here the question is rather for art critics. But on my own behalf: sometimes you come to the PinchukArtCentre, look at the piece of asphalt exhibited there and think - what kind of nonsense? And then a modern art critic will come up to you and explain that in fact this is art ", - says Artem Chernodub. - But seriously, I think that if paintings by artificial intelligence start to be bought, then this can be considered, if not art, then at least a product."

It is reassuring that the robot can repeat, calculate, copy - but cannot create anything radically new. So far, computer creativity is just imitation.

That is why the demand for human oddity and genius will remain. Scientists, inventors, researchers, creators of art - people who do not create, but create - without them, the development of society, even with total automation of labor, is impossible. In addition, the ubiquitous distribution of robots has a significant plus: against their background, the uniqueness and exclusivity inherent only in humans will be increasingly valued.

“No highly developed artificial intelligence is able to completely replace a person,” says Michio Kaku, an American physicist of Japanese origin. “We actually have much more advantages over machines than we can imagine. Robots have no imaginative thinking, they have no consciousness, intuition.

Therefore, the scientist advises: in order to succeed, you need to develop those abilities that are not available to robots: creativity, imagination, initiative, leadership qualities. Much more likely to succeed are those countries that can balance commodity markets and cognitive-creative potential.

But even if you can't draw, sing, write music, and didn't get your doctorate from Harvard, don't panic. Technological progress both kills some professions and creates new ones.

According to the forecasts of scientists from Utrecht University, although labor automation will reduce the number of jobs, it will allow companies to reduce production costs, and at the same time, product prices, which will increase the purchasing power of citizens and create new jobs in other industries.

In addition, human supervision will still be necessary for robots for a long time. There will be a need for the profession of a roboticist - a professional who will train robots and make sure that they do not harm a person.

In any case, we need to learn how to interact with AI. Modern children are easier in this regard - they learn to handle the tablet before they speak. Older people, of course, will be more difficult to relearn. But now is the time to think about whether you want to do what you are doing now for the rest of your life. The main thing is to orient yourself in time and adapt to the new technological reality. Progress can no longer be stopped.

By studying the lists of professions in demand in a particular period of human history, you can learn a lot about society: people's preferences, technical equipment, it is even possible to draw conclusions about the sanitary condition of cities. Certain specialties arise in the wake of the demands of their time, but then just as quickly disappear. In this review, a story about some professions, the memory of which is now only in photographs.

time seller

Before the beginning of the era of radio, when exact time signals were not yet transmitted on the air, accurate clock reconciliation was very relevant. This was done by the time sellers. The last representative of this profession was Ruth Belleville. Every morning she set the chronograph to the Greenwich Observatory's clock and then toured customers who signed up for the service. Thus, people were able to synchronize their clocks with Greenwich Mean Time. The error in this case was no more than 10 seconds. This profession was popular in the XIX century. With the advent of radio that transmitted accurate time signals (this first happened in 1926), many customers, of course, stopped paying for such a service. However, Ruth worked until 1940.

alarm clock

The activity of this person was also associated with the exact time. He had to wake up his client on order. They did this either by knocking on the window (long sticks and pebbles were used), or with the help of special pipes. Such professionals were widespread in England and Ireland. In Russia, by the way, the janitors woke up the tenants.

Pied Piper

People in this profession performed very important work ridding cities of harmful rodents. This activity differed radically from modern pest baiting: rat catchers climbed basements and sewers, catching rats by hand. Of course, this required special skill. It is interesting that these same "professionals" were sometimes engaged in breeding and selling tame rats, and also supplied live rodents for the fun that was popular in those days - dog baiting. In 1835, in England, the use of bears and bulls for such purposes was banned, and bloody entertainment began to be carried out with rats.

Many professions disappeared literally within the lifetime of one generation of people. Even our parents could see them.

Shoe shiner

The correct name for this profession is Bootbreaker. It appeared in the 18th century. The cleaner boys have become a real "sign of the times", because. this simple work were mostly children. Such a service was popular until the middle of the 20th century, and then gradually disappeared in Europe and America, but continues to flourish in Asia and Latin America. Therefore, it is too early to formally call it a “dead profession”. In India, there is even a trade union for shoe cleaners and a special license for this type of activity.

Outdoor knife grinder

Interestingly, people of this profession have been known since antiquity. Craftsmen-grinders had small workshops or went to towns and villages in search of customers. In those days, when life and well-being often depended on edged weapons, such a narrow specialization justified itself. In the 20th century, street knife sharpeners were still very common. Their professional tool was most often a foot-operated whetstone. Now these no longer exist, although this profession is called sharpener in production is a completely official and demanded working specialty.

Stenographer

The disappearance of this specialty can be compared to the explosion of a huge multi-storey building. A skill honed over thousands of years has ceased to be in demand in just a few decades. Technological progress in this case was ruthless.

If we recall the history of this profession, then its beginning is attributed to Ancient Egypt, where the speeches of the pharaohs were recorded with conventional signs. In the 1st century BC, the first system of signs used for cursive writing was invented. Since the end of the 16th century, shorthand has been rapidly developing and becoming a full-fledged professional institution with its own educational institutions specialized in print media regularly held international congresses.

In our country, in 2018, this profession seems to have ended its existence. From April 1, the positions of "Secretary-Stenographer", "Stenographer" and "Head of the Typewriting Bureau" are excluded from Qualification Handbook positions of managers, specialists and other employees.

It is clear that the disappearance of some professions and the emergence of others is a natural process, and it will continue along with the history of mankind. There are predictions about which professions will be next in demand. Most likely, in the coming decades, specialties will disappear:

Travel Agent – ​​Many people are already planning their trips themselves.
- The cashier in the supermarket - will be replaced by a "smart cart", such concepts already exist.
- Call center operator - automatic systems with recorded voice information and today they are doing their job well.
- Ticketer - reading scanners can replace a living person in this case.
- Postman - this profession should have disappeared a couple of years ago with the advent of Email, but was unexpectedly tenacious. In any case, work postal service will have to change a lot in the near future.
- Chauffeur - autopilots for cars and buses are already being actively used in big cities.

Whether these predictions will come true - we will find out in a couple of decades.

If you want to dive into the past, it's worth seeing.

The development of technology and technology is primarily aimed at improving and making life easier for each of us. But at the same time, this is the reason for the disappearance of a number of crafts. Disappeared professions are the work that was previously performed by specially trained people, but now does not make sense at all, or is carried out with the help of technology.

Disappearance of professions - is it normal?

If we think logically, it becomes clear that such processes in the structure of professions are quite natural. In no case should one perceive the disappearance of professions as a kind of destructive factor, as a result of which many people become unemployed. It is important to remember that the old professions that have disappeared are necessarily replaced by new specialties, more modern, relevant and in demand. Sometimes there is a direct replacement of the craft, for example, the ancient profession of a coppersmith is reborn into the profession of an electric and gas welder, the once popular job of a newspaper peddler is becoming less and less in demand, and in its place you can put the recently appeared work of the promoter.

The oldest professions that have disappeared

What are the oldest The list of such crafts that have gone into oblivion is quite long. The disappearance of professions is a constant, systematic process that does not attract the attention of the masses. Today we do not think about what professions disappeared several centuries ago, and we may not even be aware of their existence.

List of forgotten professions

• Pied Piper. One of the terrible problems of the Middle Ages were rats. As you guessed, the people who were called rat-catchers courageously fought against the misfortune. Representatives of this profession, despite all their usefulness, were not very revered in society. Each rat catcher had his own methods of dealing with rodents and tried to advertise himself better in order to beat the competition.
• ice harvester is extremely difficult and dangerous profession associated with risk to life. The ice cutters used long saws with a load under water. The ice was cut into longitudinal bars, which were called "boars". Further, these "boars" were delivered to the settlements and were quite a hot commodity.
• spitter engaged in planting turnips. The name of the profession was given by a specific method of sowing small seeds of this plant.
• Weepers and wailers trained in the craft of crying since childhood. Not a single ritual action in Russia could do without them. The more plaintively and piercingly the mourner could moan, the higher was the reward for her labors.
• buffoons- them professional duties was the entertainment of ordinary people on the streets of cities. The reason for the disappearance of this profession was not technical progress, but the way of society.
• Alarm clock man- from the name it already becomes clear what the people of this profession were doing. At a time when the alarm clock had not yet been invented, it was also not advisable to be late for work. To do this, a special person knocked on the windows, announcing the arrival of the morning. Sometimes this function was performed by janitors.
• Executioner- now you will not meet people of this because of their uselessness in the current social system.

Each of these specialties seems strange and absurd to us. It is hard to imagine in the modern world an executioner posting a resume, or a mourner advertising her services. But at one time they were quite sought-after specialists.

What professions did not become in the last century

These crafts are already closer and more familiar to us. They do not seem so absurd, but still do not fit into the realities of modern society.

• Lamplighter. Remembering the disappeared professions, it is impossible not to pay attention to the people who gave light. Their main task is to light lanterns at dusk.
• Cab- the person driving It used to be the only way to get to your destination as quickly as possible. In the modern world, an analogue of this profession can be called a driver.
• Counter- specially trained people who performed complex mathematical calculations, using the only "gadget" available at that time - abacus. Mostly women were engaged in this business, as they are more attentive and collected.
• Reader is a very educational profession. In factories and factories, where people were busy with monotonous work for many hours in a row, there was a man who entertained them by reading newspapers, fiction and verses. Readers were often hired for money raised by the team.

Disappeared professions in the last 10 years

They say: "life is getting faster." Probably, it is in connection with this that changes in the structure of specialties are becoming more noticeable. It will not be difficult for us to recall a lot of examples of professions disappearing right before our eyes. Disappeared professions in Russia over the past decade:

• knife grinder- in principle, such a profession still exists, but you will not find its representatives in the afternoon with fire, they have become so rare. Non-blunt knives made of high-quality steel have come into fashion, which can last a long time, and they are much cheaper.
• Shoeshine - a long time ago they could be seen at every intersection of the main streets of cities and towns. Later shoe shiners did their business mainly in special workshops.

• telephone operator, telegrapher- it seems that quite recently, receiving telegrams in the mail seemed to be a common thing for us. And how nice it was to hear the voice of the girl-telephone operator, waiting for a connection with the subscriber. Now everything is in the past. The role of cute representatives of these professions can be replaced by a functional smartphone. We managed to find out far from all the disappeared professions. This list is getting longer every decade.

Is it possible to predict something

Analyzing information about which professions disappeared and what events provoked such a disappearance, one can make an assumption about how things will continue in the structure of crafts. The beginning of the extinction of some specialties is so obvious that it is not even necessary to be a specialist to draw the appropriate conclusions.

Jobs that will disappear by 2020

This information is not 100% reliable, but still no one can doubt that these specialties will soon cease to exist. Already now they are losing their former relevance, becoming less in demand, and after 2020, most likely, they will move into the category of "disappeared professions".

• Postman- a profession doomed to extinction. With the advent of the Internet, newspapers and magazines have lost their former popularity, and we receive 90% of letters by email.
• Travel agent- information about vacation spots becomes publicly available, planning tourist trips does not require any additional resources and becomes within the power of everyone.
• Librarian, archivist, document specialist- the organization of electronic databases and electronic archives contributes to the extinction of these professions.
• copywriter- according to forecasts, soon computer programs will be able to generate articles themselves different topics, and the number of "keyboard workers" will drop sharply.
• Call center operator- already now, many companies offer the possibility of solving problematic issues in automatic mode, controlling the actions of the system through autoresponder commands. This becomes the basis for a sharp reduction in the number of operators.
• Lecturer. Online courses are an alternative to classroom training. It is because of these innovations in the education system that it can also disappear as a profession.
• Usher. FROM scanners that read information - this is what will become a replacement for a living person, a specialist in selling and checking tickets.
• Seamstress- it's hard to believe, but this profession is also in danger of extinction. Soon, manual labor will be needed only to create expensive designer items, and equipment for self-production of clothes at home will become available to everyone.
• lifter- the mechanisms that ensure the smooth operation of elevators are being improved and automated more and more every year. Soon, specialists will not be needed to control the operation of elevators, machines will do it for them.
• Stenographer- in the next few years, the work of stenographers and transcribers will be completely replaced by the work of computer programs capable of voice recognition.

Choosing the "right" profession

We have always been taught to choose a profession with the soul. But what if the job that you like and for which there is a craving suddenly becomes unnecessary? It would be a shame if knowledge and professional skills and will remain unfulfilled. In order not to get into such a situation, among other factors, it is necessary to consider the prospects of this specialty in conditions technical progress. Strive to choose future profession be approached with all seriousness and consider the issue from different angles.

Summing up

The disappeared professions of the 20th century are a huge list of specific crafts, which in most cases are based on hard physical labor. The need for the existence of such professions has disappeared with the advent of complex technical devices controlled by a person and performing this work instead of him. In the modern world, these disappeared professions may seem strange, surprising or meaningless, but they will forever remain part of our history.